Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[filopastry]

I don't think it's a great idea, I just think it's the least worst option that is at least somewhat achievable. I think an election held after the 31st of October, or even before then but with an extension beyond that date already secured, would be less likely to give Johnson a majority - he'd lose a lot of votes to Frottage given he's made a big song and dance about definitely coming out on that date no matter what.

Pretty much all the options are now fraught with risk or unrealistic to varying degrees unfortunately. What was it Tusk said in April? 'Do not waste this time'. What a gang of twats our politicians are.

I totally agree that while we would love to have a caretaker government that could take us through another referendum, it is pretty much impossible to see that happening with the current breakdown of MPs, I think the estimate is that we need at least 22 weeks to arrange and hold a second ref. I don't think the public would be happy to see a govt sitting there twiddling its thumbs for 22 weeks waiting for the ref to happen either.

I'm not even optimstic about getting  the votes to just form govt, ask for extension and call a GE.

You can almost ignore the LibDems in all this, its the Tory Remainers who are the problem, there is no majority for  a govt without a few of them, especially when you consider that the likes of Hoey would probably vote against as well

[Riquende]

A no deal outcome was not being entertained as a realistic prospect back in 2017 if memory serves me correctly. I don't remember any of the parties, not even UKIP, saying that no deal was their preferred outcome back then. 

Things have changed as well you know.

'No deal' wasn't mentioned at the time because there wasn't a deal to unite against I guess. Summer '18 saw 'Chequers' which saw a few resignations before being sidelined, and then 'May's Deal' was... December? She refused to have a vote on it before Christmas.

The ones who were always going to reject any deal in pursuit of a 'clean break' were always going to have to wait until a deal had been agreed before they could angrily reject it.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Imagine if we didn’t have that useless c*nt as leader of the opposition...

How different might the world look?

go a bit further for the unions to back the non shit Miliband brother like the members did...

[Jiminy Cricket]

See Ghost Town's post. It would be a temporary arrangement with a very narrow mandate to stop Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson taking us out on the 31st of October with no deal. I'm not expecting the Lib Dems or the Tories or anyone else to endorse Corbyn's unicorns and rainbows Brexit nonsense. If they can't cobble something together though then we end up with no deal.

I have no problem with Corbyn being PM in principle (purely as leader of GoNU) to prevent the UK crashing out of Europe. But there is a massive problem with this: Corbyn has proven himself to be totally untrustworthy. Voters, MPs from other parties, even MPs from his own party cannot trust him to do what he is meant to do in that situation.

[Alan_X]

I have no problem with Corbyn being PM in principle (purely as leader of GoNU) to prevent the UK crashing out of Europe. But there is a massive problem with this: Corbyn has proven himself to be totally untrustworthy. Voters, MPs from other parties, even MPs from his own party cannot trust him to do what he is meant to do in that situation.

Untrustworthy and also a mediocre politician.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Untrustworthy and also a mediocre politician.

You are being way too kind.

[TepidT2O]

You are being way too kind.

Way way way too kind.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Untrustworthy and also a mediocre politician.

so shit a job they’re doing that Chris Williamson is suing them over his suspension, actually want him to win it

[TepidT2O]

so shit a job they’re doing that Chris Williamson is suing them over his suspension, actually want him to win it

Interesting....
Given that it’s taken 18 months to kick out a Holocaust  denier, I could be a long time before he gets anything....

God bless the new speedy process eh?

[Riquende]

God bless the new speedy process eh?

Works fine if you vote Lib Dem.

[redmark]

Clive Lewis clarifying Labour's Brexit position on Newsnight. No, me neither.

[24/7]

Clive Lewis clarifying Labour's Brexit position on Newsnight. No, me neither.

Would make an excellent #

[redmark]

Would make an excellent #

Ha! Well, I've used it, expect it to be viral by tomorrow morning .

[Ghost Town]

No misunderstanding here. Would suggest thinking this leads up to an extension just to hold a general election may be the misapprehension. eg Lucas is talking of referendum and implementing it. A general election straight after balking Johnson, and without preventing 'no deal' being possible if the election is won by him, would be courageous, to borrow from Sir Humphrey.

I just don't see it. I'd love it if a GoNU could be formed and then turn around and immediately set up a People's Vote, or even better, Revocation. But unless there's some kind of emergency legislating power that I'm unaware of, a new referendum would need to be voted through by the house, and I just can't see that happening. Not when both the major parties will be thinking that they could win an outright majority in a General Election and then do what they please.

Sure, they're both probably deluded in thinking so, but when has that every stopped politicians and their advisors? Both Cummings and Milne in their Grima Wormtongue roles would be whispering insidious poison into the two leaders' ears, insisting that they can win a GE and push their form of Brexit through. So unless there's an almighty defiance of the Whip by large numbers of MPs from both sides, I just can't see how a referendum can be called by a GoNU. And that's before we tackle the thorny issue of what the question is to be.

You're right that calling a GE straight after stopping a No Deal crash out would be pointless, but the point is that the GE would not be the primary goal here. The primary goal would be to stop a cynically manipulated No Deal crash out by Johnson on Oct 31. Unfortunately a GE would then simply be a consequence of the Government losing a VoNC and being sidelined by a cobbled-together GoNU: the government would have lost their mandate and simply could not continue to govern after that without a fresh mandate; and the GoNU would only come into being if it was agreed by the rival factions that it would only exist in that form for a very short time before a genuine mandate was sought. Hence a GE almost by accident.

And yes, such a GE could deliver greater power to the Brexiters - of either hue. I've never said it would be a good idea to have one, just that it seems inevitable if a VoNC is called and the government loses.

[oldfordie]

I just don't see it. I'd love it if a GoNU could be formed and then turn around and immediately set up a People's Vote, or even better, Revocation. But unless there's some kind of emergency legislating power that I'm unaware of, a new referendum would need to be voted through by the house, and I just can't see that happening. Not when both the major parties will be thinking that they could win an outright majority in a General Election and then do what they please.

Sure, they're both probably deluded in thinking so, but when has that every stopped politicians and their advisors? Both Cummings and Milne in their Grima Wormtongue roles would be whispering insidious poison into the two leaders' ears, insisting that they can win a GE and push their form of Brexit through. So unless there's an almighty defiance of the Whip by large numbers of MPs from both sides, I just can't see how a referendum can be called by a GoNU. And that's before we tackle the thorny issue of what the question is to be.

You're right that calling a GE straight after stopping a No Deal crash out would be pointless, but the point is that the GE would not be the primary goal here. The primary goal would be to stop a cynically manipulated No Deal crash out by Johnson on Oct 31. Unfortunately a GE would then simply be a consequence of the Government losing a VoNC and being sidelined by a cobbled-together GoNU: the government would have lost their mandate and simply could not continue to govern after that without a fresh mandate; and the GoNU would only come into being if it was agreed by the rival factions that it would only exist in that form for a very short time before a genuine mandate was sought. Hence a GE almost by accident.

And yes, such a GE could deliver greater power to the Brexiters - of either hue. I've never said it would be a good idea to have one, just that it seems inevitable if a VoNC is called and the government loses.

I could see it happening if a referendum could be organised in a couple of weeks but it will take a few months I imagine, could a alliance remain intact for a few months, be brilliant if it could.
Why would another referendum pass in the HOC after it has failed in previous votes.?  Beckets indicative vote on a confirmatory referendum vote lost by only 27 votes. MPs had alternatives back in March, another extension to kick the can down the road being one of them, it's now crunch time. if it came to a no deal or another referendum then I think more than 14  MPs needed would now support another referendum. Johnson has left them no choice with his no deal Brexit.


Dame Margaret Beckett’s - Confirmatory public vote

Drawn up by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and tabled by former foreign secretary Dame Margaret Beckett with the backing of scores of MPs across the House, this motion would require a public vote to confirm any Brexit deal passed by parliament before its ratification.

For: 268

Against: 295

[Zeb]

I just don't see it. I'd love it if a GoNU could be formed and then turn around and immediately set up a People's Vote, or even better, Revocation. But unless there's some kind of emergency legislating power that I'm unaware of, a new referendum would need to be voted through by the house, and I just can't see that happening. Not when both the major parties will be thinking that they could win an outright majority in a General Election and then do what they please.

Sure, they're both probably deluded in thinking so, but when has that every stopped politicians and their advisors? Both Cummings and Milne in their Grima Wormtongue roles would be whispering insidious poison into the two leaders' ears, insisting that they can win a GE and push their form of Brexit through. So unless there's an almighty defiance of the Whip by large numbers of MPs from both sides, I just can't see how a referendum can be called by a GoNU. And that's before we tackle the thorny issue of what the question is to be.

You're right that calling a GE straight after stopping a No Deal crash out would be pointless, but the point is that the GE would not be the primary goal here. The primary goal would be to stop a cynically manipulated No Deal crash out by Johnson on Oct 31. Unfortunately a GE would then simply be a consequence of the Government losing a VoNC and being sidelined by a cobbled-together GoNU: the government would have lost their mandate and simply could not continue to govern after that without a fresh mandate; and the GoNU would only come into being if it was agreed by the rival factions that it would only exist in that form for a very short time before a genuine mandate was sought. Hence a GE almost by accident.

And yes, such a GE could deliver greater power to the Brexiters - of either hue. I've never said it would be a good idea to have one, just that it seems inevitable if a VoNC is called and the government loses.

Not saying it's probable, just that if MPs are going to all that trouble to bring down the government to avoid a specific outcome, and run the country for a couple of months before an election can be held, then throwing it all up in the air again immediately after they've got power would seem a remarkably bizarre thing to do. They cannot stop 'no deal' without revoking Article 50 or without finding a negotiated exit from the EU which will pass through Parliament. I do agree an election before 2022 would be the likely outcome - just saying that there's definitely going to be a period where you need to form a government and if MPs are going to be damned for a lamb, then they'll also be thinking they may as well be damned for a sheep.

Totally agree that a referendum is a huge stinking problem. But then so is the aftermath of an extension based on holding an election and hoping that the next government in will be able to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and/or legislation for a referendum by tweaking the political declaration before the timer runs out yet again.

edit: I want my unicorn to be stripey and have a purple mane btw. 

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Interesting read:

http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/englands-rentier-alliance/

[Dr. Beaker]

Interesting read:

http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/englands-rentier-alliance/

Fit that into a one sentence sound bite and there would be hope.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Fit that into a one sentence sound bite and there would be hope.

I like the use of "Rentier" - living off investments, ie not working. They're not like "normal" people, that needs to be emphasised more. Remainers keep on losing this narrative on who are the real elite.

[Zeb]

I like the use of "Rentier" - living off investments, ie not working. They're not like "normal" people, that needs to be emphasised more. Remainers keep on losing this narrative on who are the real elite.

Question I have, and I think I broadly agree with Davies and others who've made the point, is 'who does it persuade?'. Works for me. But then I'd never vote Tory let alone Frottage or Yaxley-Lennon. Presumably works for you - and I'd take it for granted that you're the same on voting. But does it work for those who have or would consider it? And, if it doesn't - and it hasn't in the past on them or others, why doesn't/didn't it?

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Question I have, and I think I broadly agree with Davies and others who've made the point, is 'who does it persuade?'. Works for me. But then I'd never vote Tory let alone Frottage or Yaxley-Lennon. Presumably works for you - and I'd take it for granted that you're the same on voting. But does it work for those who have or would consider it? And, if it doesn't - and it hasn't in the past on them or others, why doesn't/didn't it?

Be more aggressive in its usage, get them defending it on TV and avoid eating a bacon sandwich in public?

[Zeb]

Be more aggressive in its usage, get them defending it on TV and avoid eating a bacon sandwich in public?

Alternative theory. For a significant chunk of the electorate economic (and class) messages are less important than them perceiving someone to be able to take charge of a situation competently. Such as eating a bacon sandwich in public.

[Robinred]

I like the use of "Rentier" - living off investments, ie not working. They're not like "normal" people, that needs to be emphasised more. Remainers keep on losing this narrative on who are the real elite.

The past 3 years has witnessed the representatives of the “Rentiers” run rings around those arguing for Remain. You could justifiably argue the Rentiers have had the backing of a complicit press (Corbyn’s backers harp on about this, but only referencing their darling leader’s treatment). Consider too the (stark) difference overall, of the coverage of the BBC and Channel 4 during that period.

I’m not convinced that Remainers have ‘lost’ the narrative; it’s more the case that they’ve focused their arguments around economic and trade disruption. Only occasionally has the spotlight been focused on the motives, cynicism and selfishness of Banks, Martin, Dyson et al.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

The past 3 years has witnessed the representatives of the “Rentiers” run rings around those arguing for Remain. You could justifiably argue the Rentiers have had the backing of a complicit press (Corbyn’s backers harp on about this, but only referencing their darling leader’s treatment). Consider too the (stark) difference overall, of the coverage of the BBC and Channel 4 during that period.

I’m not convinced that Remainers have ‘lost’ the narrative; it’s more the case that they’ve focused their arguments around economic and trade disruption. Only occasionally has the spotlight been focused on the motives, cynicism and selfishness of Banks, Martin, Dyson et al.

Difficult to target someone like Banks who simply does not give a shit, he flings plenty at people and sues anyone who does it back. Dyson is like "^{can you hear me} _{over here on the other side of the World, cos targeting my product sales doesn't work cos I'm} GLOBAL ^now".

More examples need to be made of the actual people backing them. Way too many free passes to talking heads and Joe Terrible on the street in TV shows/reports, who get to spew their nonsense slogans unchallenged. Everyone forgets just how bigoted that old lady was with Gordon Brown, just that he pointed it out - in private. Make them squirm and say, plainly, what they REALLY want.

I realise I am screaming into the abyss at this point.

[Zeb]

Survation polling has both Tories and Labour performing well below any reasonable expectations. Link (tables are in xls). [edit: weird little curiosity, although would seem to fit other polling, 8% of men are currently undecided while 22% of women are.]

Found the EU questioning to be a little more surprising, even allowing for the likes of ComRes and The Telegraph (once more) being hugely deceitful in what they're doing when they survey people about it.

Spoiler

[close]

Including 'don't knows', that's 51% Remain, 42% Leave, 6% Undecided. The undecided's would break en masse for Leave just to give people nice numbers to talk about, wouldn't they?

[ShakaHislop]

Len McCluskey: there is no path to a second Brexit referendum

Unite leader says Labour should support pragmatic deal that keeps both sides happy

The Unite leader Len McCluskey has said Labour must support a pragmatic Brexit deal, saying it appeared to be impossible to stop no deal and that there was no path to a second referendum.

The trade union boss, a key ally of Jeremy Corbyn whose views will carry significant weight in writing any future party manifesto, said Labour had to address how it would approach negotiating future trade deals if the UK had left the EU after Labour came to power.

“I believe that if we haven’t left by 31 October that we should respect the 2016 referendum, which means leaving Europe but on a deal that the 48% would be happy with,” McCluskey told the BBC. “That is access to a frictionless market and a customs union protecting jobs and investment.

“And the 52% would be happy because of the policies that Labour have to invest in their communities and to deal with the abuses of migrant labour coming into our country with labour market regulations.”

He said a no-deal Brexit would be “almost impossible to stop” and said he was not certain a no-confidence vote in Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson would be successful.

“The important thing for me is for Labour to continue to hold a very clear vision of the type of Britain we want to be and the relationship we want with Europe, because come the 31 October if we leave without a deal, there is still going to have to be debate and discussion about trade deals and about what kind of relationship we have,” he said.

McCluskey said that a referendum would be “a legitimate stance” in order to test the popularity of no deal with the British public but said he did not believe it would take place.

“It’s not going to happen, of course – there isn’t going to be a second referendum under Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson’s no-deal approach to life,” he said.

Asked if that went against so many Labour supporters and MPs who wanted another referendum, McCluskey said: “So many Labour MPs and supporters want the issue done and dusted.”

McCluskey said the trade unions had endorsed a position that Labour should negotiate a Brexit deal if they came to power prior to the UK leaving.

The joint position, agreed by union leaders in the aftermath of disappointing results for Labour in the EU elections, also suggested any Labour-brokered deal be put to a public vote, but the party would not commit to campaigning for remain against its own Brexit deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/14/no-path-to-a-second-referendum-says-unite-leader

[Ghost Town]

I could see it happening if a referendum could be organised in a couple of weeks but it will take a few months I imagine, could a alliance remain intact for a few months, be brilliant if it could.
Why would another referendum pass in the HOC after it has failed in previous votes.?  Beckets indicative vote on a confirmatory referendum vote lost by only 27 votes. MPs had alternatives back in March, another extension to kick the can down the road being one of them, it's now crunch time. if it came to a no deal or another referendum then I think more than 14  MPs needed would now support another referendum. Johnson has left them no choice with his no deal Brexit.


Dame Margaret Beckett’s - Confirmatory public vote

Drawn up by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and tabled by former foreign secretary Dame Margaret Beckett with the backing of scores of MPs across the House, this motion would require a public vote to confirm any Brexit deal passed by parliament before its ratification.

For: 268

Against: 295

Think there's a qualitative difference between approving a referendum back in the good old days of indicate voting (ah, what halcyon days they were) and doing the same AFTER the government loses a VoNC and a General Election is tantalisingly close, with its promises of outright majorities that could enable either party to realise its own version of Brexit. Neither party will give up that chance, even if it is a gamble, just to deliver a referendum which they know will at best be equivocal and most likely scupper Brexit completely. So unless enough MPs defy the whip, I can't see a referendum being voted through the House.

It's depressing and dispiriting but all I can see following a government loss in a VoNC is either No Deal by process of law (i.e the clock running down) or, if a GoNU can be cobbled together, an extension and General Election. And I think we're all being quite generous in assuming that a GoNU can be cobbled together. It may simply be impossible due to the intransigence of various factions involved.

And yes, I think a General Election will either deliver a majority to one or other Brexit party, or no overall control again, and the continuation of this paralysis.

Dismal times.

[ShakaHislop]

Labour's Brexit policy, according to McCluskey, would create a hard border on the island of Ireland as we'd be out of the Single Market and for what? In part, so that the supposedly progressive, left-wing party can pander to the anti-immigrant vote.

Something something, Jo Swinson cosplays as Thatcher, whataboutery whataboutery

[oldfordie]

Think there's a qualitative difference between approving a referendum back in the good old days of indicate voting (ah, what halcyon days they were) and doing the same AFTER the government loses a VoNC and a General Election is tantalisingly close, with its promises of outright majorities that could enable either party to realise its own version of Brexit. Neither party will give up that chance, even if it is a gamble, just to deliver a referendum which they know will at best be equivocal and most likely scupper Brexit completely. So unless enough MPs defy the whip, I can't see a referendum being voted through the House.

It's depressing and dispiriting but all I can see following a government loss in a VoNC is either No Deal by process of law (i.e the clock running down) or, if a GoNU can be cobbled together, an extension and General Election. And I think we're all being quite generous in assuming that a GoNU can be cobbled together. It may simply be impossible due to the intransigence of various factions involved.

And yes, I think a General Election will either deliver a majority to one or other Brexit party, or no overall control again, and the continuation of this paralysis.

Dismal times.

Oh don't get me wrong am not saying MPs will be given a chance to vote for another referendum if the VONC wins, Corbyns made himself clear, he want's a GE but I think MPs would support a referendum to stop a no deal, I don't think Johnson has left them much choice. the other choice is to revoke of course, not going to happen, nobody is talking about revoking.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

McKlusky telling Labour Voters and their families to go and fuck themselves and never to vote Labour again.

Message received and understood you c*nt.

[Nobby Reserve]

Then we have that wanker Stephen Kinnock intent on ploughing Brexit through.

What an utter c*nt.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Then we have that wanker Stephen Kinnock intent on ploughing Brexit through.

What an utter c*nt.

I think that is a little unfair. However, he certainly seems to very seriously underestimate the impact of the negotiated WA. The results of which will be similar to No-Deal, just played out over a couple years instead of weeks. The British people will be the proverbial flogs in a pan of water.

[Trada]

Jeremy Corbyn
‏Verified account @jeremycorbyn
17m17 minutes ago

I've written to the leaders of other political parties and senior backbenchers from across Parliament to lay out my plan to stop a disastrous No Deal Brexit and let the people decide the future of our country.

[ShakaHislop]

Jeremy Corbyn
‏Verified account @jeremycorbyn
17m17 minutes ago

I've written to the leaders of other political parties and senior backbenchers from across Parliament to lay out my plan to stop a disastrous No Deal Brexit and let the people decide the future of our country.

Bonus points for the first one of those parties to tell him to get fucked.

[ShakaHislop]

I think that is a little unfair. However, he certainly seems to very seriously underestimate the impact of the negotiated WA. The results of which will be similar to No-Deal, just played out over a couple years instead of weeks. The British people will be the proverbial flogs in a pan of water.

No, it's not. He is a c*nt and a constant reminder of why, in part, the membership voted for someone like Corbyn as leader in the first place. An embarrassment to his family's name.

[Trada]

Bonus points for the first one of those parties to tell him to get fucked.

Then it will be a no deal Brexit on 31st October.  Because Jeremy will not blink they will have a choice vote with Labour or Green light a no deal Brexit.

[ShakaHislop]

Then it will be a no deal Brexit on 31st October.  Because Jeremy will not blink they will have a choice vote with Labour or Green light a no deal Brexit.

Labour have a choice to get rid of Corbyn in favour of someone the other parties can work with.

Corbyn flounced out of a cross-party meeting only a few months ago because Chuka Umunna was there, now he's demanding that other parties unite to put him into power. Haha fuck off.

[Zeb]

Then it will be a no deal Brexit on 31st October.  Because Jeremy will not blink they will have a choice vote with Labour or Green light a no deal Brexit.

For which Corbyn, and his supporters, will be blamed just as much as the Tories. You not clocked that yet?

[oldfordie]

Jeremy Corbyn
‏Verified account @jeremycorbyn
17m17 minutes ago

I've written to the leaders of other political parties and senior backbenchers from across Parliament to lay out my plan to stop a disastrous No Deal Brexit and let the people decide the future of our country.

Looking forward to him clarifying a few points, why can't he be clearer, what does calling a VONC when we can be confident of success mean, why not just say we will call a VONC as soon as Parliament returns. Labour is committed to a public vote on the terms of leaving the EU or remain, fair enough he's ruled out no deal on the ballot paper but what are the terms for leaving the EU, I assume it must be Mays WA. which is also fine but why not just be more clearer and say May WA or whatever he believes the terms of leaving the EU are, everyone is naturally suspicious. you get the feeling he can say he meant something completely different.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Looking forward to him clarifying a few points, why can't he be clearer, what does calling a VONC when we can be confident of success mean, why not just say we will call a VONC as soon as Parliament returns. Labour is committed to a public vote on the terms of leaving the EU or remain, fair enough he's ruled out no deal on the ballot paper but what are the terms for leaving the EU, I assume it must be Mays WA. which is also fine but why not just be more clearer and say May WA or whatever he believes the terms of leaving the EU are, everyone is naturally suspicious. you get the feeling he can say he meant something completely different.

Yep. This is what he does - always. 'Well, I just don't know.' He's the fucking Mavis Riley of the House of Commons.