Topic: The Horse Racing thread

[rebel23]

Just having one bet today...


16:00 Taunton

The Fav is far too short for a Handicap hurdle so I'm looking to take him on with Tactical Manoeuvre currently the 2nd Favourite on Betfair.  He's a multiple winner and the trainer does well at this course.  Jockey is OK and I think he's going to run a good race.

1 point win Tactical Manoeuvre

[rebel23]

BREAKING NEWS: British horseracing has been suspended until the end of April.

Ah, crap!

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

Honestly feel like I must be missing something here. The Tube and all other public transport is fully operational. There will be factories with hundreds of workers on shift in close proximity running on these days. How does it make sense to cancel this when there will literally be a matter of a few hundred people there to get the races on? The impact on the industry could be monumental.

[aggerdid]

Obviously no sport on at all and after cheltenham was in a horsey mood. I’ve just watched a horse 20/1 on the track in the US go off at 180/1 on betfair and win.

[Phil M]

Honestly feel like I must be missing something here. The Tube and all other public transport is fully operational. There will be factories with hundreds of workers on shift in close proximity running on these days. How does it make sense to cancel this when there will literally be a matter of a few hundred people there to get the races on? The impact on the industry could be monumental.

Greyhound racing still going ahead: https://greyhoundbet.racingpost.com/#meeting-list/r_date=2020-03-18

[duvva 💅]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dvJzjhUgPww

Just rewatching some of this years Cheltenham, really was some great races/finishes

Marsh Novices chase one of the best battles

[duvva 💅]

The Albert Bartlett was another great finish. The first four home could all go on the better things

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nDec49F10jE

[rebel23]

Royal Ascot

16th - 20th June

36 races! 

I've been crunching the stats and the usual names crop up:

Trainers: A P O'Brien, Gosden, M Johnston, Stoute, Hannon

Jockeys: Moore, Dettori, Buick, J Doyle

Those lot are very interesting so read up on their runners and see if you fancy anything!

Might as well do the homework now and get an edge on other punters...
..

[duvva 💅]

Shouldn’t really moan as it’s been so long without racing, but the 6 races they’ve added seem like bookies benefits.

Be interesting to see how well form holds up. For 3 year olds and older horses in most cases it’ll be their first run of the season. With two year olds it may be their first run full stop. None of the usual crowds and noise will help some more than others.

Not sure I’ll be getting involved much this year with that many imponderables

[Gerry Attrick]

Betting in the first couple of weeks will be chucking money away. Been following the French racing a bit and Fabre's horses were running like donkeys. A stable full of Godolphins, Abdullahs and Wertheimers.

[duvva 💅]

Betting in the first couple of weeks will be chucking money away. Been following the French racing a bit and Fabre's horses were running like donkeys. A stable full of Godolphins, Abdullahs and Wertheimers.

My mate sent me this link to a Frankel 2yr old filly running in France today, wins nicely but no idea the strength of the race

https://www.instagram.com/p/CAnJvijgbH6/?igshid=1991ev2zkt0up

[Gerry Attrick]

My mate sent me this link to a Frankel 2yr old filly running in France today, wins nicely but no idea the strength of the race

https://www.instagram.com/p/CAnJvijgbH6/?igshid=1991ev2zkt0up

I saw that, it got beat 9 lengths on debut. The horse that finished second today got done by a nose into 5th by Bonne Idee in that race, so I've no idea what to make of it. One you'd need to watch next time out to make sure it wasn't a fluke.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

Betting in the first couple of weeks will be chucking money away. Been following the French racing a bit and Fabre's horses were running like donkeys. A stable full of Godolphins, Abdullahs and Wertheimers.

I've had a nice start to the French racing, up 6 points so far from 4 bets. I keep my own figures on French racing as they come over here so often anyway so have a reasonable read on the form. Can't wait for the classics to all start plus Ascot though.

[duvva 💅]

I saw that, it got beat 9 lengths on debut. The horse that finished second today got done by a nose into 5th by Bonne Idee in that race, so I've no idea what to make of it. One you'd need to watch next time out to make sure it wasn't a fluke.

I’d not had chance to look into it yet, just struck that she had a bit of the Frankel way of running and looked quite bulky and big for a filly but might just be seeing things. As you say one to keep an eye out for next time

[Gerry Attrick]

I've had a nice start to the French racing, up 6 points so far from 4 bets. I keep my own figures on French racing as they come over here so often anyway so have a reasonable read on the form. Can't wait for the classics to all start plus Ascot though.

Anything Boudot sat on in the first week was winning. Graffard was saddling up winners galore too. A few caught my eye; Simeen, Ocean Atlantique and Raabibah looked good in their trials I think. Victor Ludorum isn't one to give up on, but you'd hope he'd drift after getting beat into 4th. I think all Fabre's classic contenders will be mighty dangerous, I don't think he had them wound up, so Tropbeau has to be feared after getting up.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

Anything Boudot sat on in the first week was winning. Graffard was saddling up winners galore too. A few caught my eye; Simeen, Ocean Atlantique and Raabibah looked good in their trials I think. Victor Ludorum isn't one to give up on, but you'd hope he'd drift after getting beat into 4th. I think all Fabre's classic contenders will be mighty dangerous, I don't think he had them wound up, so Tropbeau has to be feared after getting up.

Boudot is a serious serious jockey, in my top 3 in the world.

Never been a fan of Victor Ludorum, I think the fact that he's Godolphin owned and Fabre trained has sold people down the river slightly, on the clock he did nothing of note as a two year old but racked up the wins, think he got quite lucky myself. Tropbeau on the other hand, she seems a nice filled y and I've given her some good times including in her trial, not a superstar but certainly a Group 1 filly in my view.

[rebel23]

Betting in the first couple of weeks will be chucking money away. Been following the French racing a bit and Fabre's horses were running like donkeys. A stable full of Godolphins, Abdullahs and Wertheimers.

Some trainers are better than others when horses have their first run of the year.  Stoute for example is a master at it.

[duvva 💅]

Some trainers are better than others when horses have their first run of the year.  Stoute for example is a master at it.

I’m surprised at that, but it sounds like there are stats to back that up. I’ve always seen Stoute as the opposite, someone who lets the horse develop gradually, not someone who gets them ready to win first time out.

[rebel23]

I’m surprised at that, but it sounds like there are stats to back that up. I’ve always seen Stoute as the opposite, someone who lets the horse develop gradually, not someone who gets them ready to win first time out.

He'll have them ready for Royal Ascot make no mistake and they tend to be good prices.

[rebel23]

Can't wait for Royal Ascot.

36 quality races... it's going to be mental.

I'm going to take Gerry's advice and hold fire until then.  It'll be worth it...

Here's the order:

---
Royal Ascot Order of Running:

(16th to 20th June)

Tuesday
Buckingham Palace Handicap (7f, 3yo+)
Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group One, 4yo+)
Ribblesdale Stakes (1 1/2m, Group Two, 3yo fillies)
King Edward VII Stakes (1 1/2m, Group Two, 3yo colts & geldings)
King’s Stand Stakes (5f, Group One, 3yo+)
Duke of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group Two, 4yo+ fillies and mares)
Ascot Stakes Handicap (2 1/2m, 4yo+)

Wednesday
Silver Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (1m, 3yo+)
Hampton Court Stakes (10f, Group Three, 3yo)
King George V Handicap (1 1/2m, 3yo)
Prince of Wales’s Stakes (10f, Group One, 4yo+)
Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (1m, 3yo+)
Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)
Copper Horse Handicap (1 3/4m, 4yo+)

Thursday
Golden Gates Handicap (10f, 3yo)
Wolferton Stakes (10f, Listed, 4yo+)
Jersey Stakes (7f, Group Three, 3yo)
Chesham Stakes (7f, Listed, 2yo)
Gold Cup (2 1/2m, Group One, 4yo+)
Britannia Handicap (1m, 3yo colts & geldings)
Sandringham Handicap (1m, 3yo, fillies)

Friday
Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap (5f, 3yo)
Albany Stakes (6f, Group Three, 2yo fillies)
Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group Two, 2yo)
Hardwicke Stakes (1 1/2m, Group Two, 4yo+)
Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group One, 3yo colts & fillies)
Queen’s Vase (1 3/4m, Group Two, 3yo)
Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (1 1/2m, 3yo+)

Saturday
Silver Wokingham Handicap (6f, 3yo+)
Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group Two, 2yo fillies)
Coronation Stakes (1m, Group One, 3yo fillies)
Coventry Stakes (6f, Group Two, 2yo)
St James’s Palace Stakes (1m, Group One, 3yo colts)
Diamond Jubilee Stakes (6f, Group One, 4yo+)
Wokingham Handicap (6f, 3yo+)
Queen Alexandra Stakes (2 3/4m, Conditions, 4yo+)

Race two onwards (race three onwards on Saturday) will be shown on ITV1 and all races will be shown on Sky Sports Racing. Racing will begin at 1.15pm Tuesday to Friday and 12.40pm on Saturday, with the final race at 4.40pm.

[duvva 💅]

Not a fan of the rejigged programme, but as before I shouldn’t moan. At least it’s happening! But I’ll be watching only this year

[FlashGordon]

Mark Johnston first time out two year olds were golden a couple of years ago. Especially on the all-weather.

[rebel23]

Mark Johnston first time out two year olds were golden a couple of years ago. Especially on the all-weather.

Johnston has a good record @ Royal Ascot particularly in the handicaps.

Look out for him especially the ones with S De Sousa on.

[rebel23]

Not a fan of the rejigged programme, but as before I shouldn’t moan. At least it’s happening! But I’ll be watching only this year

There will be good value about at Royal Ascot.  O'Brien;s horses will be priced up at 6/4 or shorter. They may win and sometimes they won't. Stoute/Johnston/Hannon/Godolphin/Gosden then take advantage and you can get good prices on those horses like 7/2, 4/1, 5/1 etc. I love it!

It;s tricky but the rewards can be vast. Also the jockeys i've mentioned:When R L Moore is riding for Stoute instead of for O'Brien that's usually a sign. Buick is still with Godolphin i think and is class. He will ride some nice horses like Pintabuto.

There is also the raiders from abroad and not just the Irish but W A (Wesley) Ward especially in the sprint races has a good record and I think he's bringing a few over from the US.

Royal Ascot reminds me of Cheltenham festival in that it will be a carve up between the leading trainers and you will get some nice prices on horses you never will get during the year because the races are hot.


!

[Gerry Attrick]

I wouldn't back a Mark Johnston runner with counterfeit. You've got to be extremely selective because backing his runners is a way to the poor house. Look at his record in the last 5 years. Backing all his runners to a £1 stake would leave you massively down.

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/trainer/3378/mark-johnston

[rebel23]

I wouldn't back a Mark Johnston runner with counterfeit. You've got to be extremely selective because backing his runners is a way to the poor house. Look at his record in the last 5 years. Backing all his runners to a £1 stake would leave you massively down.

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/trainer/3378/mark-johnston

His record is very good at Royal Ascot and you get nice prices as well.  He targets the Royal meeting. In fact he is one of the leading trainers at the meeting I think up there with Aiden O'Brien.

[Gerry Attrick]

His record is very good at Royal Ascot and you get nice prices as well.  He targets the Royal meeting. In fact he is one of the leading trainers at the meeting I think up there with Aiden O'Brien.

The only time I'd say he's worth following is Goodwood. He has so many runners that he's bound to get a couple of winners but his horses go off way shorter than they should because he still has name value. Hasn't had a top horse in years and when he gets one that looks like it could be great it becomes a handicapper.

[rebel23]

The only time I'd say he's worth following is Goodwood.

Yeah he target that as well !

A very simple angle  for Ascot is to look at horses who won last time out and fancied in the market (i.e Fav/2nd Fav). I'll back Johnston's horses if they're fancied and swerve the other ones. He may get a few winners I don't know.

[rebel23]

Potential trade / Free Bet

Frankie rides Raffle Prize in the 1,000 Guineas.(TBC ...  Frankie said Johnston is keen)

Available at 25/1 AntePost with some bookmakers....

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/1000-guineas/winner

Can't see her going off at 25/1 especially with the 'Frankie Factor' .

Might be worth a punt and lay it off later ?.  Possible free bet...

I'm on for a score.

Laddies boosted it to 28/1 - Nice LOL..

This bet has been boosted!
Single  @28/1
Receipt No: xxxx
Raffle Prize
Ante Post / 1000 Guineas
Stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Returns: £580.00

Worth a risk. Hope she makes it as it will deffo be shorter if she takes her chance.

[duvva 💅]

Couple of cards at Newmarket on Thursday and Friday ahead of the Guineas at the weekend. They seem to be running the Grp 1 Coronation Cup on the Friday from the Epsom Derby meeting.

[rebel23]

Racing is BACK @ Newcastle tomorrow -- 10 races!

Just had a quick look and notice Stoute is sending a few so is Gosden both have amazing records at the track.  Those are interesting to me.

I tend not to get involved in Novice races or Maidens so that's 4 races eliminated.

[Gerry Attrick]

When Gosden sends a runner to Newcastle they're worth following. He's introduced some really nice ones there, including Enable. Frankly Darling is mad short but perhaps one to note going forward. Owned by Oppenheimer, she's out of Frankel and a listed winning Mare, who's produced a couple of 100+ rated types.

[rebel23]

When Gosden sends a runner to Newcastle they're worth following. He's introduced some really nice ones there, including Enable. Frankly Darling is mad short but perhaps one to note going forward. Owned by Oppenheimer, she's out of Frankel and a listed winning Mare, who's produced a couple of 100+ rated types.

Too short for my liking... wouldn't put anyone off though..

I dont usually bet under 2/1.

[Gerry Attrick]

Too short for my liking... wouldn't put anyone off though..

I dont usually bet under 2/1.

Yeah, she’s way too short. Just one I’ll be keeping an eye on to see if big targets will await down the line.

[rebel23]

Been through the card a few times and there is definitely some value to be had but it's hard to know how fit these horses are in these unique circumstances.
 
Stats punters like myself need to be cautious because things might not go as planned even if a certain stat sticks out.  Speed figures might be misleading because they're not 'cooked' yet. Just need to tread carefully. I think there could a few surprises.

Timeform is FREE for the week which is handy so I will be consulting their ratings and comments looking for improvers.  The market (Betfair) will also be informative.

I will post some thoughts around lunchtime tomorrow!

[rebel23]

RACING IS BACK!

Here's my look at Newcastle today:

2:10N: Bond's Boy

Fahey one of the leading trainers at the track and this must be his best chance of winner. Ideally I don't want to see this drifting on Betfair above 6.0 as that would be a bad sign.

4:30N: Be Proud

Trainer Jim Goldie has stated he thinks he's well handicapped.  Tudhope booking a real positive because he has impressive stats at Newcastle.

5:05N Alignak   

Sir Michael Stoute has an amazing record at Newcastle (30 odd % strike rate). Murphy booked which is a positive. Timeform says: 'open to further progress.'

Good luck all!

[rebel23]

Not looking good for Bond's Boy. Drifted to 6.6  on Betfair  i'll swerve it unless it gets backed nearer the off (it's-possible)

[duvva 💅]

Hadn’t realised the French Guineas were today. Will give them a watch if I get chance this afternoon

[rebel23]

Money for Bonds Boy so i'm with it. Looks competitive though!

[duvva 💅]

22/1 winner in the first. 9/1 winner, 33/1 second in race 2 with odds on shot nowhere.

Welcome back racing. Bookies have missed you most of all