Topic: Results Comparison Thread: 2013-4

[JP-65]

The defense stats:

Southampton leading the way on best average, and most clean sheets.

Sunderland & Palace can't keep them out.

[Jack Slater]

Clear gap between top 7 and rest on equivalent match, but Southampton are this seasons "dark horse" candidate

It's interesting that Arsenal are actually -5. 

So, in other words, all they have done so far this season is play games which they won last season.  In that context, their 5,1,1 record this season is less impressive.


Also interesting that for all Moyes's paranoid conspiracy theory that the PL actually lied about the fixtures being random, and deliberately chose hard games for him to start (why?), MU is actually down on the equivalent games any way.  So the games might have been tough-ish, but he hasnt managed to match Mr Ferguson in them (to everyone's surprise, I'm sure).

[JP-65]

It's interesting that Arsenal are actually -5. 

So, in other words, all they have done so far this season is play games which they won last season.  In that context, their 5,1,1 record this season is less impressive.


Also interesting that for all Moyes's paranoid conspiracy theory that the PL actually lied about the fixtures being random, and deliberately chose hard games for him to start (why?), MU is actually down on the equivalent games any way.  So the games might have been tough-ish, but he hasnt managed to match Mr Ferguson in them (to everyone's surprise, I'm sure).

The equivalent match comp is always the "big tell" IMO, other than Southampton, not much yet to change the order significantly, but I think it's clear it will be tighter, both up at the top, and in the middle.

[JP-65]

Worth a read:

http://basstunedtored.com/2013/10/14/tipping-point/

[groove]

Yeah, the most telling part is that after the Newcastle and West Brom games we will be coming into our most difficult run of fixtures this season. No-one should be surprised if we are somewhere between 5th-7th by the turn of the year. I just pray for no negative knee-jerk reactions from people as we will still be in a recoverable position for a strong challenge for 4th.

[Hij]

Worth a read:

http://basstunedtored.com/2013/10/14/tipping-point/

To add to that, our last 38 games are 1.87 points per game - which would be 71 over a season, that is two behind Arsenal (4th) and one behind Tottenham (5th) (based on last seasons points totals). So our 'over a season form' signs point to us at least being in the race for the upper places in the league come the end of the season- and that would be a first step towards getting over the precipice, it's just whether we could whether another storm of 5th/6th even if the points gap to fourth is much smaller than previous season and our points total is much higher than previous seasons.

There is no doubt in my mind that 52, 58 and 61 will all be beaten, and that has to be one brilliant positive IMO.

[BassTunedToRed]

Yeah, the most telling part is that after the Newcastle and West Brom games we will be coming into our most difficult run of fixtures this season. No-one should be surprised if we are somewhere between 5th-7th by the turn of the year. I just pray for no negative knee-jerk reactions from people as we will still be in a recoverable position for a strong challenge for 4th.

After Newcastle, our next 17 fixtures only yielded a total of 19 points last season. Lots of room for improvement. Maybe we should embrace this period as we don't have much to lose!

[JP-65]

After Newcastle, our next 17 fixtures only yielded a total of 19 points last season. Lots of room for improvement. Maybe we should embrace this period as we don't have much to lose!

Good to have woken the "Bass" out of his cage!

[BassTunedToRed]

Haha, got this page bookmarked now, John, so you might see a bit more of me around here!

[JP-65]

Haha, got this page bookmarked now, John, so you might see a bit more of me around here!

Thanks, it'd be great to have some quality posters add to the dross I put up here.

[BazC]

After Newcastle, our next 17 fixtures only yielded a total of 19 points last season. Lots of room for improvement. Maybe we should embrace this period as we don't have much to lose!

Great point. I think that'll be the test for us - it's almost half a season worth of football there, and given our great start, we're well set to go into that period. A period which will define our season pretty much.

[goalrushatgoodison]

Posted this in the wrong thread earlier!

Our 61 point total last year left a total of 53 pts in the room for improvement Dept. the total room for improvement in our first 8 games (replacing QPR with Crystal Palace) was 9 - we got 15 pts from the same fixtures last year.

So we are two pts ahead of last year after games where the maximum room for improvement was 9. Extrapolating this over a season where the total room for improvement was 53 gives us a projected return, based on performance to date, of marginally under 12. Rounded up that's 73pts. I think most of us would take that total as an acceptable season whether it got us top four or not. Taking into account the fact that we haven't played well I think this is encouraging even if 8 games is a very small sample

[BassTunedToRed]

So where are we now?

Two points up on last season, with nothing at risk next week against a low scoring West Brom side.

To hit 71 (and thus the average that the team finishing 4th has had in the last 5 seasons), we need 1.80 points per game from here on in. As we average 1.92 in 2013 so far, it seems plausible to me....

[JP-65]

Updated charts:

[JP-65]

So where are we now?

Two points up on last season, with nothing at risk next week against a low scoring West Brom side.

To hit 71 (and thus the average that the team finishing 4th has had in the last 5 seasons), we need 1.80 points per game from here on in. As we average 1.92 in 2013 so far, it seems plausible to me....

I'll look at setting up my season to go summaries soon, looks like a top 7 again, with Southampton replacing Man Utd 

[JP-65]

Here's a look at our goals for and against average, last season vs this.

Scoring more, letting in less....a good start

[JP-65]

Here's the same data, looking at it on the basis of rolling last 5 matches, scoring more, but also starting to let in more

[gregorio]

Great point. I think that'll be the test for us - it's almost half a season worth of football there, and given our great start, we're well set to go into that period. A period which will define our season pretty much.

Forgive the hyperbole, but I think it is the most crucial half a season in many years and will define Rodger's tenure.

No pressure lads.

[RogerTheRed]

Hi, not sure this is the right place to ask this but it is a comparison of sorts. We keep hearing about our poor defending of set pieces but what about our conversion? We seem to get endless corners EVERY game and I always think this is the one - then it gets headed clear or over again!
Have we improved any aspect of our set pieces over the past season and a bit?
Am I right in thinking we are not doing any better at corner conversion despite having three centre backs who are all beasts now?

[JP-65]

Hi, not sure this is the right place to ask this but it is a comparison of sorts. We keep hearing about our poor defending of set pieces but what about our conversion? We seem to get endless corners EVERY game and I always think this is the one - then it gets headed clear or over again!
Have we improved any aspect of our set pieces over the past season and a bit?
Am I right in thinking we are not doing any better at corner conversion despite having three centre backs who are all beasts now?

Just about to post this, addresses the first part of your question

Nazareth da Gama ‏@Nazdagama 8h
Continuing from @DanKennett work, here is a table showing percentage  of set piece goals conceded by PL teams in P http://twitpic.com/dia22v

[redy]

The equivalent match comp is always the "big tell" IMO, other than Southampton, not much yet to change the order significantly, but I think it's clear it will be tighter, both up at the top, and in the middle.

Yeah it is going to be real tight with United coming down to the level of others (per this table, while in reality they are much worse) It is interesting to see that despite being so worse United are still at the top at 81 points. And that Chelsea are -5 in fact. And of course United are going to drop more. What it all points towards is a really difficult league from a bit above the relegation spots, where any team can beat any other team esp at home.

[JP-65]

Mootaz ‏@Mootaz_LFC

Liverpool's last 18 Games:

WDDDWDWWWWWDLWWWDW

(W 11 - D 6 - L 1)

[Brian Blessed]

Three gained on same fixtures, two on time.

[Hij]

Mootaz ‏@Mootaz_LFC

Liverpool's last 18 Games:

WDDDWDWWWWWDLWWWDW

(W 11 - D 6 - L 1)

[JP-65]

Three gained on same fixtures, two on time.

I have the charts updated, but I'll wait until Spurs, City & Chelsea play tomorrow to post them up.

[JP-65]

2 losses in last 21, both to Southampton!

But good to get the WBA monkey off our backs

[JP-65]

71 points in last 38 matches (W20 D11 L 7), good enough for 4th, except for last season!

Since we lost at Old Trafford last season, we've gone W14 D 8 L3, 2.0ppg or 78 in a season…..decent!

3 losses were 2 Southampton, 1 WBA

[helmboy_nige]

5 points up on equivalent fixtures last season.  Great to get the WBA results of the last two years off our back.

[Deo]

Here's a post I'm currently maintaining on another forum, thought It might be helpful here (click the photos for a better resolution):

---

Here's a table of the amount of points needed to finish in a particular position in the EPL during the last five seasons.



Since our aim for this season is to get into the CL, that means we need to get around 68-73 points, if we judge it by the last five seasons. Let's just say that we need 75 points. That equals to 14 more points compared to last season.

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Comparing this season's results with last season's, so far:



*Wigan = Cardiff City
*Reading = Hull City
*QPR = Crystal Palace

Also, Goal differences are compared to how much we scored/conceded vs that team. A positive value means we scored more or conceded less, negative for the other way around. For example we scored one goal less against Villa but we also conceded one less.

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Premier League mini Table. Arguably, The top teams in the EPL this season will be United, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and Everton.

Last season one of our major weak points was that from the teams that finished above us, we've managed to gather only 10 points out of 36, and only one win. It's imperative that we do as well as possible against those teams because one win or loss in those games offsets us by 6 points vs that team.

For example, Manchester United finished 28 points above Liverpool last year. Because of our win vs United at Anfield this season compared to our loss on the previous one, we've already offset that difference by 6 points to 22.

This a comparison of last season's Mini Table with this ones:

[zabadoh]

Winning the "mini-Table" would only have gained us 1 place to leapfrog Everton, so great was the gap from 5th 72 pts to 6th 63 pts

Question:  How much is not having European football helping our early League results?  How would you measure the effect of those extra matches has on a season's results?  This time last season, we'd played 7 additional competitive matches in the qualifying and group stages for Europa League.

[Zeb]

Winning the "mini-Table" would only have gained us 1 place to leapfrog Everton, so great was the gap from 5th 72 pts to 6th 63 pts

Question:  How much is not having European football helping our early League results?  How would you measure the effect of those extra matches has on a season's results?  This time last season, we'd played 7 additional competitive matches in the qualifying and group stages for Europa League.

There's been some little bits done into the impact of European football on league football. Prozone example (worth clinking links to other studies given there too). Seems, at least from that little one, that the major impact upon performances may be after playing away from home on the Thursday night (assuming that we're talking specifically us and versus performances in the past handful of years when we've not had CL football). I'd take issue with using the bookies' numbers as the starting point there, but appreciate it gives a handle on things, but the suggestion is a 10% reduction in expected points seems to come out fairly regularly. If you get to the last 16 in the Europa League, that's around 6 away games in Europe on a Thursday night. So I make that a couple of points dropped, if you were expected to win the games on the weekend. Of course, there are teams who seem to defy this 'average' too.

Tip of the hat to JP while I'm here.

[Liamski-la]

Don't know if it effects performance but one thing it certainly does is remove an excuse.

[Anthony]

71 points in last 38 matches (W20 D11 L 7), good enough for 4th, except for last season!

Since we lost at Old Trafford last season, we've gone W14 D 8 L3, 2.0ppg or 78 in a season…..decent!

3 losses were 2 Southampton, 1 WBA

2.0ppg is 76 points

I was thinking it would be good to produce a League based on the last 38 games and then I realised - that's what the Time Comparison does!

[JP-65]

2.0ppg is 76 points

I was thinking it would be good to produce a League based on the last 38 games and then I realised - that's what the Time Comparison does!

thnx Anthony, a brain fade I guess

It's funny, you're not the first person to have, belatedly, come to that same conclusion!

[JP-65]

Thanks Deo, the more the merrier!

[freddwarf]

Lot of talk about Southamton, doing well but they will finish outside the top 6.

If we are still in the top 4 by January and no reason why we shouldn't be the signing of a free scoring attacking midfirlder in Jan who can hit the ground running could just put us in with a real shout for the title.

All depends on January.

[Deo]

Winning the "mini-Table" would only have gained us 1 place to leapfrog Everton, so great was the gap from 5th 72 pts to 6th 63 pts

But you're forgetting the fact that - as I mentioned in my post above - a win instead of a loss offsets us by 6 points against that team, not 3. For example, let's just say that instead of a loss at home and a draw away against Arsenal, we would have gotten a draw home and a win away, that's three points more for us and three less for them. Suddenly, their 12 point lead (73 for them, 61 for us) shrinks to 6 points (70 to 64). Add to this two wins instead of draws vs Everton (4 more points, taking us to 68) which we should have had, a draw against spurs away (3 points difference vs them, one more point for us) and suddenly we're 6th with 69 points, trailing Arsenal and Spurs by just one point. Even a draw vs any other opposition against whom we lost would have probably taken us to 4th because we would have surely had a better goal difference.

IMO, results vs the big sides, especially those we're competing for CL spots are the most important ones we need to get. We need to get around 20 points in the mini-league if we want to truly qualify for a CL spot.

[Anthony]

It's funny, you're not the first person to have, belatedly, come to that same conclusion!

Yep, that word just about sums me up - but no harm in reminding people of the fact anyway...

Does mean that despite our progress, we are still outside the top 5 over the last 38 games but hopefully room for improvement over the next few.

[Anthony]

Comparing this season's results with last season's, so far:



*Wigan = Cardiff City
*Reading = Hull City
*QPR = Crystal Palace

Also, Goal differences are compared to how much we scored/conceded vs that team. A positive value means we scored more or conceded less, negative for the other way around. For example we scored one goal less against Villa but we also conceded one less.

---

Deo, that is a magnificent graphical representation of what this thread is all about (Sorry, JP )!

Can I suggest that gets copied into the opening post as there used to be a similar list in past seasons (I wouldn't worry about updates on a weekly basis as the stuff from JP covers that)

(Granny the eggs are at [im g width=682 height=600]http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c92/deo89/LFC%2013-14%20Sats/SeasonResults_zps22ac5eb4.jpg[/img] )

[JP-65]

Yep, that word just about sums me up - but no harm in reminding people of the fact anyway...

Does mean that despite our progress, we are still outside the top 5 over the last 38 games but hopefully room for improvement over the next few.

It does, but shorter periods, we compare quite well