Topic: The Title Race 2023/24- Jurgen's Last Dance

[momomo]

I think the West Ham game will be moved to the Sunday if Arsenal are in the CL semi, though I may have misheard that.

Only if Arsenal's CL semi 1st leg is on Tuesday 30 April, not if they play Wednesday 1 May.

[Garlicbread]

Stones and Walker is out of the Arsenal game according to Pep. Ederson too but that was known already.

[disgraced cake]

Good chance for Arsenal to go there and be a bit braver than they might have. What disappointed me a couple of weeks ago is we gave City's deputy goalkeeper nothing to do when Ederson went off. Suppose they couldn't take advantage of us missing Alisson though.

I'd still fancy City, all they really need is Haaland and De Bruyne to be on form and that's before Foden and Silva turn up. Wouldn't mind a draw but Arsenal winning might just be better. If we do our bit we can just relax a few days before what should be a routine victory over Sheffield United which would set up a huge one with United, and I expect we'll have learned more about what we must do after the FA Cup defeat. One at a time though.

[actwithoutwords]

Anything but a city win is good news I think. They're a few players down, they won't be happy after the anfield game, and Arsenal have their tails up, but you'd still have to back them. If they were to lose (which is very unlikely) they might start to feel like it's not their year and focus on the CL.

[Andar]

Beat Brighton and anything other than a City win and i'm going to start believing.

I'm seeing a lot calling for a draw in the City-Arsenal game. Actually prefer an Arsenal win over a draw. Need to get City completely out of the picture. There is a big difference between a 4 point lead, rather than 3 points. That would be a 2 game difference over City. That is huge going into April.

3 point lead and that could still be overturned with us losing and a big City win. It will go beyond that too. The dent a loss would have on their invincibility would be huge.

Of course, we wouldn't be top but that doesn't matter at this stage. Level pegging with Arsenal, I think our experience over them should tell as we enter the final few games.

[latortuga]

I think this becomes a 2 team title race this weekend.

[killer-heels]

Beat Brighton and anything other than a City win and i'm going to start believing.

I'm seeing a lot calling for a draw in the City-Arsenal game. Actually prefer an Arsenal win over a draw. Need to get City completely out of the picture. There is a big difference between a 4 point lead, rather than 3 points. That would be a 2 game difference over City. That is huge going into April.

3 point lead and that could still be overturned with us losing and a big City win. It will go beyond that too. The dent a loss would have on their invincibility would be huge.

Of course, we wouldn't be top but that doesn't matter at this stage. Level pegging with Arsenal, I think our experience over them should tell as we enter the final few games.

I think a loss for City is best but even if they lose i dont think they are out of it. They have done this dance before and they will look at our and Arsenal’s fixtures and believe there is a chance to get back in the race. However I think if Arsenal lose, they are done.

[latortuga]

I think a loss for City is best but even if they lose i dont think they are out of it. They have done this dance before and they will look at our and Arsenal’s fixtures and believe there is a chance to get back in the race. However I think if Arsenal lose, they are done.

Think about it this way, if City lose to a direct title rival at home with 9 games to go something is very wrong with their team.  That would mean they would have failed to win at home against Chelsea / Arsenal / Tottenham and Us. 

You don't arrest that kind of poor home form at this latter stage of the season.

We also can't look back and point to what City have done in previous seasons, because firstly this isn't the same team and we can all agree is older and nowhere near as good and secondly none of those teams - if they were to lose - ever showed this kind of vulnerability.

It's a moot point IMO, because I think City beat Arsenal and everyone will realize again that it was always just us and them.

[Crosby Nick]

I think this becomes a 2 team title race this weekend.

No one is going to be mathematically out of it. Assume you mean whoever loses the other game loses momentum? Are you expecting a City win?

[farawayred]

I think this becomes a 2 team title race this weekend.

I feel that if Arsenal win, it will be a one team title race... Over-exaggerated, of course.

[latortuga]

No one is going to be mathematically out of it. Assume you mean whoever loses the other game loses momentum? Are you expecting a City win?

I think on the balance of probabilities City are more likely to win than draw and I'd give no more than a 5% chance of Arsenal actually winning.

You are right, no one is out of it mathematically, I've just been watching Arsenal of late and don't see a title winning team.  They have a lot of really average players in their starting team and only seem to flourish when conditions suit - which they've had lately. 

[hide5seek]

A draw or City is better for us.
Arsenal win and there goal difference is far superior to  ours.
City win and its still  in our hands.

[farawayred]

A draw or City is better for us.
Arsenal win and there goal difference is far superior to  ours.
City win and its still  in our hands.

I beg to differ. After City, Arsenal have Brighton, Villa, Spurs, United remaining. They can't win them all. City have an easier schedule. I'd rather Arsenal win. Not that I think they can, mind...

[hide5seek]

I beg to differ. After City, Arsenal have Brighton, Villa, Spurs, United remaining. They can't win them all. City have an easier schedule. I'd rather Arsenal win. Not that I think they can, mind...

Beat City and they could.

[kj999]

I beg to differ. After City, Arsenal have Brighton, Villa, Spurs, United remaining. They can't win them all. City have an easier schedule. I'd rather Arsenal win. Not that I think they can, mind...

And Chelsea.
Do not underestimate how much Chelsea hate Arsenal, and will want to stop them winning the title.
Arsenal's run in is harder than City's. I think an Arsenal win is good for us tomorrow.

And the GD is actually not as superior as it appears. If we twat Sheff Utd and one other team, that 7 goal supriority dwindles fast...

An Arsenal win at City does NOT mathematically take it out of our hands.

[alonsoisared]

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/68481769

Apologies if it's been posted already but this was interesting on the BBC. The stats nerds basically have it as a two horse race between us and city. I'm increasingly of the mind that an Arsenal win would be the best result for us on Sunday. The only problem obviously is that keeps it in their hands and gives them a massive confidence boost. Regardless, if you're getting on any team to win out then it's city, then us, then Arsenal.

Also interesting when you look at the percentage chance of winning in each game, city looks so strong. We've got a couple under 50 while they're basically massive favourites for every game. If they lose on Sunday and fall out of touching distance, it buys us breathing space but also maybe one bad result psychologically could lead to another. I'd love them out of the picture which would make the race feel more like a "normal" one where we don't necessarily have to win every single game.

All that said, all we really need to do is beat Brighton and that absolutely hasn't been an easy task for us in recent years!

[CHOPPER]

People will want, whatever they want, but if it’s a draw between them two, then the status quo is returned from a few weeks back and that’s what I’m proposing. Whatever happens, Liverpool won’t roll over lay down, we won’t being down the dust pipe, so to speak, no, if Ive said it once, I’ve said it forty five hundred times, Liverpool will win the league.


Scousers all over the world.

[DangerScouse]

People will want, whatever they want, but if it’s a draw between them two, then the status quo is returned from a few weeks back and that’s what I’m proposing. Whatever happens, Liverpool won’t roll over lay down, we won’t being down the dust pipe, so to speak, no, if Ive said it once, I’ve said it forty five hundred times, Liverpool will win the league.


Scousers all over the world.

Those three consecutive away games will be where it's won or lost for us.

[WorldChampions]

Worst case scenario is a City win, they have some piss easy games to finish the season.


A draw is ideal, we can then win our remaining games and it's job done.

[Knight]

Worst case scenario is a City win, they have some piss easy games to finish the season.


A draw is ideal, we can then win our remaining games and it's job done.

I think a win for either team is probably bad for us. If Arsenal go there and win… some statement and they’ll gain real belief. If City win, well we know how relentless the cheats can be in the run in.

[Crosby Nick]

I think a win for either team is probably bad for us. If Arsenal go there and win… some statement and they’ll gain real belief. If City win, well we know how relentless the cheats can be in the run in.

Obviously an Arsenal win gives them huge belief and confidence. But I still can’t see a world that if they win, they go on and win another 9 in a row after that, making it something like 18 league wins in a row. Something will give at some point there.

I don’t think we’ll win all our games either. City probably won’t, but think we need to have as big a lead as possible before the last 5 or so when we are more away from home, and they’ve got their trickiest fixtures out of the way. Would want a 4 point lead at least over them with about 5 games to go.

[Dazzer23]

A draw or City is better for us.
Arsenal win and there goal difference is far superior to  ours.
City win and its still  in our hands.

Personally I’m pretty certain Arsenal will drop more points than City from now to the end, so it’s a draw or an Arsenal win for me.

[MonsLibpool]

The best result is a draw IMO then a City win. As long as we're top, I'm happy

[TSC]

Hard to see where city drop any points should they beat arsenal, given their run- in.  A draw or Arsenal win needed for us.  Think city will win this though.  Of course we have to focus on beating Brighton first

[Crosby Nick]

The best result is a draw IMO then a City win. As long as we're top, I'm happy

I know we all go round in circles in here but I disagree. If Arsenal win out from here then fair play to them.

[smicer07]

Could do with draw or Arse win. But City will walk it unfortunately.

[MonsLibpool]

I know we all go round in circles in here but I disagree. If Arsenal win out from here then fair play to them.

It's because I'm confident we can maintain and build on a lead.

Arsenal are weak mentally and a defeat might demoralize them. City wouldn't be out of it even if they lose so it will come down to us doing our job which would be easier if we're not relying on other teams

At the end of the day, every game is a must win regardless of the result. If we wwant to win this title then we have to be winning virtually every game from now till the end. The title not being in our hands puts more pressure on us. If Arsenal win, we're "hoping" for them to mess up but we also need to win every game because City wouldn't necessarily be out of it.

The only scenario where City would have been out would be if they lost to us and then go on to lose tomorrow. Basically,  it's between:
1. Having to win every game or
2. Having to win every game and hoping for favourable results.

The first one is simpler.

[Dougle]

Stones and Walker is out of the Arsenal game according to Pep. Ederson too but that was known already.

Arsenal getting a bit of good luck there (again). If City could lose without Arsenal winning that'd be great but, I'll take City losing in any case.

[Tokyoite]

No matter what happens in the Abu Dhabi vs Arsenal game, we need to win every remaining game like others have said. Arsenal have a very difficult run-in and I reckon they will lose more points until the final matchday. Abu Dhabi on the other hand have much easier games and you'd fancy them to wint them all unfortunately.

Can't see Arsenal winning tomorrow though, as much as I would like them to.

[newterp]

It sounds so outrageous to say that we must win every game remaining - but it does to show you have the 18-19 and 21-22 seasons scarred us.

[MonsLibpool]

No matter what happens in the Abu Dhabi vs Arsenal game, we need to win every remaining game like others have said. Arsenal have a very difficult run-in and I reckon they will lose more points until the final matchday. Abu Dhabi on the other hand have much easier games and you'd fancy them to wint them all unfortunately.

Can't see Arsenal winning tomorrow though, as much as I would like them to.

Abu Dhabi look weak at the moment,  without Walker they have no pace their next two opponents can exploit that i.e Villa and Arsenal.

If those two play the game and not the occasion,  I honestly don't see why they can't win. Some have been saying that we can close Arsenal's GD but they play Luton a day before we play Sheffield.  What if they win 6-0?

That's why having it in our hands is better. I don't want an Arsenal win because they are a flaky team that rides highs but is probe to crumbling when things get a bit difficult (In December, they lost against Westham and Fulham in consecutive games). If they beat City, it will boost their confidence.

City on the other hand are a more experienced,  mentally strong team that's not likely to fall away even if they lose tomorrow.

[MonsLibpool]

It sounds so outrageous to say that we must win every game remaining - but it does to show you have the 18-19 and 21-22 seasons scarred us.

It's not about us being scarred. We literally have to win every game until the title is secured. Right now, any team can easily go from first to third.

[killer-heels]

It's not about us being scarred. We literally have to win every game until the title is secured. Right now, any team can easily go from first to third.

They have scarred us because in 18/19 we thought Drawing to United and Everton were fine but that just allowed City to get past us. Had we had won that game, it would have meant basically winning pretty much every game from January.

In 21-22 we had won every game from January until City and drew that 2-2. I remember saying that we needed to win that game and again that would have been a win in every game.

Fact is with City, there are now no decent points at this stage of the season.

[MonsLibpool]

They have scarred us because in 18/19 we thought Drawing to United and Everton were fine but that just allowed City to get past us. Had we had won that game, it would have meant basically winning pretty much every game from January.

In 21-22 we had won every game from January until City and drew that 2-2. I remember saying that we needed to win that game and again that would have been a win in every game.

Fact is with City, there are now no decent points at this stage of the season.

I'm saying that we literally need to win every game not because of the past but because of how tight it is. It's harder to make up ground on two teams.

And no, they didn't scar us. A scarred team would have fallen away after our first tussle with them. The issue with 21/22 is that unlike 18/19, it was an anticlimax with us losing the CL final as well.

[fridgepants]

The more I think about tomorrow, particularly that it doesn't feel entirely in our own hands at the moment, the more I feel a bit nostalgic for the years when I wasn't paying attention. It all feels incredibly stressful and I might need some emotional support pretzels to get through the afternoon.

[Coolie High]

City winning suits us, they are behind us, I’m not sure I buy the logic that Arsenal will just fall apart based on how they’ve been playing this season.

[smicer07]

City winning suits us, they are behind us, I’m not sure I buy the logic that Arsenal will just fall apart based on how they’ve been playing this season.

It's Arsenal. It's what they do.

[Knight]

People are underestimating Arsenal in here. City will not walk it tomorrow. Not with Stones, Ederson and Walker out.

It's Arsenal. It's what they do.

On the basis of what though? Last season? The cheats being relentless is difficult to stop. Of all people we should be the most understanding of that. If they fall apart in the last 10 games this season then there'll be something there, but at the moment, we don't know.

[Caps4444]

They have scarred us because in 18/19 we thought Drawing to United and Everton were fine but that just allowed City to get past us. Had we had won that game, it would have meant basically winning pretty much every game from January.

In 21-22 we had won every game from January until City and drew that 2-2. I remember saying that we needed to win that game and again that would have been a win in every game.

Fact is with City, there are now no decent points at this stage of the season.

We also drew with West Ham in 18/19?

[harleydanger]

I'm  happy with anything but an Arsenal win to be honest. That puts it completely in our own hands (if we beat Brighton).