Topic: Fertiliser Crisis - Famine 2022?

[Nobby Reserve]

It might sound niche that there is a global fertiliser crisis upon us, but the ramifications of this could be huge.

Prices for fertiliser in the UK doubled earlier this year, then doubled again. Similar, if not quite as severe, price rises hit globally as well, including countries in Europe and America.

And then gas prices surged in Europe, with the UK most impacted again.

* The UK's problems due specifically to government policy - 1) allowing Centrica to close, for profit maximisation reasons, 70% of the UK's gas storage capacity, which helps smooth wholesale price bumps; and 2) Brexit zealotry, where the govt withdrew from the Internal Energy Market as part of its wildly dogmatic opposition to any EU institution, despite not having to do so as the IEM allows non-EU members (like Norway and Switzerland).

Almost all production of nitrogen-based fertilizer relies on the use of natural gas. Fertiliser producers slowed production earlier in the year to use up stockpiles (produced when gas was cheaper) with the aim of ramping up production again when gas prices fell back. But gas prices continued to rise and in September, the UK saw its two fertiliser production plants close, citing the astronomical wholesale gas prices.

Some farmers did buy when prices rose earlier in the year; many didn't. And once production stopped, farmers began to panic buy and fertiliser soon became next to impossible to get hold of. Those farmers who bought in the summer are having to keep it [literally in some cases] under armed guard.

The situation isn't actually that much better in Europe. Lithuania is a major producer of fertiliser and, like all countries, has scaled back production. China has blocked exports of fertiliser to keep them for its own agriculture needs. The US is less impacted by shortages, but prices has risen sharply there as well.

Some farmers have reverted to using sewage-based fertiliser to autumn-feed their land, but there's restrictions on this, and they cannot use this method for spring-fertilising where the land will be used for food crops.

Modern farming is dependent on nitrogen-based fertiliser. Crops have been 'modified' to give higher yields - but need fertiliser to, in many cases, even survive. To give an idea of broad average grain yields using various methods:

No fertiliser - 0.5 t/acre
Animal manure - 1.5 t/acre
Natural strains with fertiliser - 4.0 t/acre
Improved strains with fertiliser & pesticides - 7.0 t/acre

Even if full production of fertiliser were to begin tomorrow, to produce enough fertiliser to meet demand will take 3-5 months. That won't be sufficient time for all farmers to fertilise in time for the spring fertilising season in late winter/early spring, and a lot of land will have had no autumn feed.

In the developed world, severe food price rises for 2022 are already baked in. It will create increased hardship for millions.

But the main problems will be in the developing world. The rarer supplies of fertiliser will be hoovered up by the richer developed world. Any country lucky enough to have food surpluses next year will see them selling for a much higher price to the developed world. That leaves the billions living in the developing world facing famine and starvation.

[CraigDS]

Eat more meat   

[Nobby Reserve]

To add...

Governments have been slow to act, but the fact is that there's worryingly little they can do. It's the price of gas that is driving all this, and that is out of their hands. Although it has to be said that they are architects of their own pain here to a large degree - governments across the world have been happy to allow the supply of gas to be commodified, with prices at the whim of international markets and traders. That's capitalism for you 

One example is that EU countries used to have long-term fixed supply contracts with Russia. But those countries have, like the rest of the EU, sought to create "a pricing system more reflective of global gas market dynamics."  The safety valve on gas supply used to also be shipments of LPG, principally from Qatar. But gas demand in China and, to a lesser extent, India have risen enormously. In China this is, in a large part, the result of global pressure to move away from coal-fired electricity generation. A catch-22 that a climate-campaigning 'West' finds itself in.

This is a very good FT article that explains the drivers of the gas prices surge, and why the problems are massively difficult to solve.

https://www.ft.com/content/72d0ec90-29e3-4e95-9280-6a4ad6b481a3


I'll also add that the extent of snow and ice cover across northern Europe is already at higher levels this autumn than seen in most recent years. There's also wider signals (a weakish La Niņa, a westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the first winter after a new solar cycle started, persistent signs of an amplified jetstream) that increase the chances of a colder winter across the northern half of Europe. A Cold winter, with additional gas demand, is the last thing we need.


[edited for spelling correction ]

[Sangria]

I'll also add that the extent of snow and ice cover across northern Europe is already at higher levels this autumn than seen in most recent years. There's also wider signals (a weakfish La Niņa

At least that solves the fishing crisis.

[Linudden]

Sounds like dry-food stockup time before others realise then

In all seriousness, it's definitely sounding like a rather serious situation and a further reminder of how unsustainable things really are this moment in time. I'm lucky enough to have low rent so I make a nice surplus every month even with a below-average income but not everyone is as lucky.

[redbyrdz]

Time to invest into biogas production.

[Sangria]

Time to invest into biogas production.

Growing beans?

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

This is ridiculous.

If there's one resource we're not short of it's shit.

[Sangria]

This is ridiculous.

If there's one resource we're not short of it's shit.

Burying that big red bus should up a field's fertility by a fair bit.