Topic: Comeback King?

[1892tillforever]

One thing that's been apparent since the beginning of the 09/10 season is our inability to come from behind in matches. Whenever we fall behind in a match, it seems to be curtains. We also seem to have a propensity to throw away points in games. So how bad is it?
Since Start of 09/10 season:
P    W   L    D 
77  35  23  19

Scoreless draws: 6

Results when we score first:

P    W   L    D     PPG    Points Dropped
48  33  5    10    2.16          40

When We concede first:

P    W    L    D   PPG      Points Dropped
23  2    18   3    0.30           60

We win 68.75% of games when we score first. We need to get that above 80%
We win 8.7% of games when we concede first and lose 78.26% of games we concede first in.

These are frightening statistics IMO. We need to get that winning mentality back and fast. January 1st was the last time we won a game after conceding first. We've conceded first 5 times since and only got 1 draw with 4 defeats. (Arsenal).

Thoughts on how to get a winning mentality back? Do we need a great comeback win to do it or can Kenny gradually instill a winning belief in the players again?

[-RedTilDead-]

Keep your head up and cheer the team on even louder if we are losing.  Like the singing for Suarez on Saturday after he missed the penalty.

And yes I believe if any manager can motivate and reinstill a winning mentality, Kenny can.

[Wingman]

8.7%! Crikey, that's pretty awful. I don't suppose you fancy comparing that with a few others? I'd guess United's win percentage after conceding first is miles ahead of the rest over the same period

[redbyrdz]

Winning mentality is one thing, but the other is our inability to change a game with players on the bench. Which is directly related to not having any money for a big enough squad. Usually you'd think when things don't go your way, you need to change a couple of players in order to change the game. But for that, you need players on the bench that can challange those on the pitch, or that offer something different. All we had the second half of last season was a couple of kids. (The first half we had a manager who didn't know what subs were, but thats a different story). The season before that we had rotten luck with injuries and nobody on the bench. Hopefully, with not too many departures we should be finally in the position to put decent players on the bench to inject something extra into the last 15-20 minutes when we're chasing the game.

[JackWard33]

Totally irrelevant without the league average to be honest - what % does the average and top club win when they concede first; I'd guess winning after going behind is actually much rarer than you'd think

[Stuart_Howard]

It's more than 'winning mentality' although coming back to win having gone behind is very much a pyschological thing.  But it's more based upon character, fight, spirit than anything else.  The true test of any person's character is when faced with adversity and that is when you see someone's true colours.  I would hope that Kenny is putting together a squad where he feels each players possesses such character.

[Azzandro]

Was thinking this against Sunderland, i think its partly due to so much bad luck in 09/10 season that our players just seemed to think 'oh here we go again'

Although we have a new squad now, hopefully with Gerrard and the likes of Adam and Suarez these players will take the game by the scruff of the neck

[Camarero25]

Degs wrote a fantastic post relating to this and I hope he won't mind me posting it here:

You can read too much into the start of any season, and to read anything from the first game is entirely short-sighted and isn't fair on any team, least of all one that had only 3 players (goalkeeper included) start last season's opening fixture as well as this season's. Having said that there was already a difference to see between a well established title challenging team and one finding its feet. 

I hate the Mancs, passionately, it isn't a hatred that I received with a Liverpool supporter's club card for my 6th birthday, nor is it a rational one, this hatred was inoculated into me seconds after birth, as it was with anybody else born in Oxford Street maternity hospital, and has festered and continues to gestate with every passing year becoming worse. I try to hide the affliction, "Oh that team down the road, oh they don't bother me..THEY'RE obsessed with US!", and yet I watch. I watch them on Sky, on ESPN, in Europe, even Charity Shields and Super Cups, and why? I want them to lose, I want them to lose badly, I want there to be no more Manchester United and to scratch their name from the annuls of history, where once was a mighty construction in Salford there will be a car park and a sign that reads "The Sami Hyypia car park"...

But, fuck me, they're good.

What other team can you feel uneasy seeing the opposition winning a corner against, how the fuck can you simply "know" that at 2-0 down away to Blackpool the score will finish 2-3, you even see them losing 2-0 at half time to a multi-billionaires piggy bank and you know they'll win. Today you see both central defenders hobble off (3/4 of the back line now injured), a goalkeeper who it actually looks like is shitting his kecks and a team that's on average a year younger than the one that first featured Giggs, Scholes, Neville etc. and yet you're positive that even at 80 minutes drawing 1-1, away from home, they're going to get the winner.

How do they do it every year?  The answer is simple, as all good things in football are: Patience.

Yesterday we looked fantastic, we passed the ball with ease and purpose, we created space and denied the opposition any chances, we caused problems and all around the pitch looked assured, confident and at ease with the situation.  When Suarez missed the penalty we still pushed and got our rewards, a worthy goal.  Referees can be blamed for not handing out cards, for denying goals but ultimately the direction of the game, and our play, turned in one instant.   Below are the pass completion stats, we start well and when Suarez scores we are even better, we maintain a high pass completion rate and the amount of passes we make remains high.  We are sailing, cruising to victory, by how many is the only question to be asked?

Suddenly Sunderland score and from that point on there is abject panic.  There is no belief in the methods that have created so many chances and the passes become rushed, long, inaccurate and sparse. Andy Carroll soon becomes a magnet for incoming Nike projectiles and the second ball is constantly lost and by the time of the final whistle our pass completion rate has dropped again to its almost lowest point in the game.

Liverpool 1 - 1 Sunderland

Minutes	Success	Fail	Percent
0-10	22	10	68%
11-20	65	16	80% *
21-30	43	16	72%
31-40	47	10	82
41-50	74	16	82%
51-60	34	8	80% *
61-70	33	12	73%
71-80	39	15	72%
81-90	62	27	69%

* - 11th Minute Suarez scores
* - 57th Minute Larsson scores

There was no sense of calm, a steady head telling the players new to this situation how to react, this has to come with experience and therein lies the difference between our 2 clubs and the mission Kenny Dalglish has on his hands, to instill a consistent philosophy and belief into an impressionable set of minds. While many will focus on referees or the decision to include Flanagan these points are trivial compared to the larger scheme, the entire team had a personality breakdown.  Flanagan will take the sharp end of the stick but he won't be the only player to cost us a lead through an error, Pepe Reina did the exact same thing last season, players will make mistakes and that is something that cannot be changed in football, what can be changed is the response to it.

Take the Mancs for example.  Like us they take an early lead and their pass completion stats rise and plateau at around 80%.  Like ourselves they suffer the sting of an equaliser, as more and more time passes without a goal something strange happens, instead of panic there is belief, a self-fulfilling prophecy that Man United will score, and their pass completion rate stays as it was, they have belief in their methods and these methods pay their reward with the winning goal.

West Brom 1 - 2 Manchester United

Minutes	Success	Fail	Percent
0-10	54	14	79%
11-20	50	12	80% *
21-30	36	9	80%
31-40	53	12	81% *
41-50	67	17	79%
51-60	60	9	86%
61-70	46	12	79%
71-80	38	9	80%
81-90	59	12	83% **

* - 13th Minute Rooney scores
* - 37th Minute Long scores
** - 81st Minute Reid o.g.


This is why those who know football have already targeted 4th and looked no higher.  This isn't just a new group of players we have but in the grand scheme of things we might as well have a new club: new owners, new manager, new director of football, new reserve boss, new players, new sponsors, new kit makers, and hopefully new stadium.  Kenny Dalglish needs the time Alex Ferguson had to build a dynasty, to instill a sense of belief and calm, to bestow a philosophy upon the faithful and to wrestle the confrontation to any situation from that shower of shite down the road.

What we don't need is squabbles over team selection, outcries over substitutions, finger pointing at referees, and general "the end is neigh" prophecies after 90 minutes of football.  If you've been brought back down to Earth with a bang after 90 minutes I hate to be the one to break it to you but this rebuilding is going to take years, if not a decade, to truly overtake Man United as favorites for the title.

Fans and players alike need patience.

Just shows that we absolutely go to shit when we have a setback in the game.

[teri_ma_ki]

bring back rafa ;-) he was the comeback king  .... only joking

[redbyrdz]

bring back rafa ;-) he was the comeback king  .... only joking

I know you're joking, but I remember that we once under Rafa used to be really good at scoring within the last 10 minutes. Probably the season where we finished second. The question is, how do we get that back?

[paulrazor]

08-9 we came back a lot

doesnt happen as much now

spose the best way to come back from is just fucking win

easier said than done

[1892tillforever]

I know you're joking, but I remember that we once under Rafa used to be really good at scoring within the last 10 minutes. Probably the season where we finished second. The question is, how do we get that back?

I probably should have looked for goals scored in the last 10-15 minutes compared to say the Mancs to see how far we have to go in order to match their mentality. I briefly checked last season's stats for them and they only conceded first on 8 occasions all season. Though they actually only won 2, they also only lost 2 with 4 draws. That's already more points from 8 games than we have from 23.

[Visigoth33]

For some strange reason we seem to run out of steam in the later stages of the games.I wonder if its an issue with fitness.

[bleedsred1978]

For some strange reason we seem to run out of steam in the later stages of the games.I wonder if its an issue with fitness.

At this early stage fitness could come into it especially with the copa america and what have you, very unlucky on Saturday though.

As far as the OP goes, i knew we were poor when we concede but to see those numbers really brings it home.

[wooly back red]

In that 08/09 season we had several great come backs Portsmouth away being the best, but I remember that some of those happened after the opposition went down to 10 men, usually because of fouls on Alonso. Before and after that season we have been poor at come backs, except for the greatest ever come back.

[NorthamptonKopite]

Incredible how important this is. Been watching a bit of the old 08/09 season tonight, and the amount of points we gained coming from behind. Makes you wonder, is it mentality? Fitness?

Or just the lack of Steven Gerrard?