Tim, I know you know more about this area than most, but I've got to take issue with this line:
"As for looking pessimistically at it, if everyone were to take that view then no business in the world would expand."
That's just not true. When you look at opportunities you look at worst case, best case and realistic. You're right that the club will know what sort of demand is predicted - but its only ever going to be just that: predicted. Our worst case scenario could leave us wiped out - our best could see us pay off in what, 15 years, 20? That's the best case? It's all predictions, and I don't think we've got the fan-base or the corprorate interest that there is down the east lancs road.
And I've seen boxes going for £1200 on an ad-hoc basis on the official site, so they're obviously not selling out now, never mind on 3 year minimums.
That waiting list is full of duplications and people who think they might as well get on it, better to be on it and in with a chance of a season-ticket. Stick the £500 bill under their door and I reckon a few people might realise they're happy sticking with their champions league runs and the odd game in the league.
And I know they'd be looking at increasing revenue from other streams, but again, is that potential there? Bars and restaurants on non-match days? Whose going to go? Is there a demand for that in L4...because it doesn't look like there is whenever I've been past on non-match days. They'll look to create the demand, so therefore are into the predicting game again. And predicting it based on nothing.
And the new stadium was always predicated by the fact it cost £60m to redevelop the current site to 55,000; when the figure was standing at £100m for a new one. What's the current ratio? Does it still not make financial sense to redevelop?
My biggest worry is that Hicks and Gillett are on a no-lose gamble with the stadium. It's a seperate financial entity that will own the ground, and own the debt...if it all goes tits up, they're not going to lose a bean, and we'll lose the lot.