Thing is, the Sweden Democrats in the 2022 guise are neither very right nor extreme in an international context and it's a far cry from the skinhead days 30 years ago. Their entire policy platform is basically that of the Danish and Norwegian Labour parties. Being on 'the right' in Sweden is basically like being a Lib Dem as far as economics go. Above all, this election was essentially a rebellion against high fuel and energy prices from the countryside or basically a referendum on nuclear power. Crime was a big issue as well, but the big rightward shifts were seen in areas where the cost of living crisis has hit the hardest.
The Social Democrats ran a horrible campaign filled with arrogance, no policy proposals and Trump-like statements. The whole idea behind their campaign was 'Putin is bad so we can't change the government since it's a crisis' and 'our opponents are very bad people so vote for us so we can implement their ideas instead because it's better if good people crack down on crime'. The excessive negative campaigning led to the left vote concentrating in their camp but that they pushed rural voters rightwards. That they did this while mimicking almost everything the Sweden Democrats said made their campaign ever more pathetic by the day. Essentially, the Moderate Party (Tory) copied the Sweden Democrats first and then the Social Democrats copied the Moderates. The PM duel on the state TV was particularly embarrassing, since the PM said that she agreed with the opposition leader eight (!) times. In the end, a lot of voters simply chose the original over the pale copy and the end result was quite obvious.
Multiple 'Bolsovers' happened.
To name some:
Avesta, Borlänge, Boxholm, Eda, Fagersta, Filipstad, Finspång, Grums, Gävle, Hallsberg, Haparanda, Hedemora, Karlskoga, Laxå, Ljusdal, Ludvika, Lysekil, Nora, Ockelbo, Skinnskatteberg, Smedjebacken, Storfors, Surahammar, Tierp, Torsby, Vingåker, Ånge and Älvkarleby. In some of those places even I would've laughed if someone said that a near 50/50 split would yield right-wing wins a week ago. Then add a few places which didn't vote right-wing for half a century or more and flipping Dalarna County on top of that. Gävleborg, Örebro County and Värmland almost flipped whereas Blekinge, Sörmland, Västmanland and Östergötland were won for a second consecutive election. Every municipality of Kalmar County voted for the right, which is unheard of considering the interior was part of the industrial belt. In Dalarna, Västmanland and Östergötland the leftist wins were reduced to one municipality apiece. Needless to say, the nuclear municipalities of Oskarshamn and Östhammar swung even more to the right.
In some areas, the left used to win well above 70 % most of the time but lost yesterday. Instead the left almost flipped the wealthy suburb Nacka, won Stockholm by 20 points and landslides in Gothenburg, Malmö and Uppsala. They performed beneath expectations in Linköping and Örebro though, which could prove decisive, not to mention the right winning Västerås and Norrköping with a greater margin than anticipated.
In addition, they lost massive ground in the northern interior with rather pyrrhic wins as their core voters are fleeing. Since the Sweden Democrats don't have the 'rich people' baggage they'll be a lot harder to win back than the Red Wall voters in England. Their leadership didn't go to Eton and speak in a manner that relates to working-class people. Not to mention that a lot of the Social Democrats' new voters in Stockholm are liberal rather than left and are still in play for the more moderate right parties. Plus an islamist party have started to make inroads into their voter base in some areas.
The overall turnout appears to be down as well, likely due to the Social Democrat party leader ranting about not wanting 'Somalitowns'. One senior leftist (!) minister was openly bragging about wanting to ban (!!) 'non-European people' from moving to certain multicultural neighbourhoods to 'maintain an ethnic balance' and was applauded (!!!) by the Prime Minister. Not exactly how to mobilize the Muslim vote for a leftist party now is it...
So the future doesn't look bright for them and they need to come down from their high horse and figure out why they're in a position to lose an election they looked to have in the bag all this time.
As for the electoral count, the only real question by the looks of things is whether it will be 176-173 or 175-174 in parliament - which could have major repercussions down the road. There are 47 k votes between the blocs with each seat being roughly 20 k. In theory, given that the big cities are done counting it's almost worth calling the election but for a shock swing in the expat vote, that normally vote 'Tory'.
The outcome policy-wise then? Well, nuclear power plants will be built and criminals will need to be prepared to get Danish sentences (in effect doing a really long time). The Moderate-Christian Democrat coalition seen in parliament will probably be in government whereas the Liberals and the Sweden Democrats will veto each other from the cabinet but prop the government up to get budgets through. Fundamentally, those two parties actually agree with one another on more things than not, it's just a very different view on globalization and multiculturalism that sets those apart.
That being said, the Liberals agreed on a joint immigration declaration with the other parties a year ago which will restrict it a ton. Even though to a foreigner it might look like a 50-50 split, there's a sizeable majority for parties that want really low levels of immigration (more or less 80 %). The Social Democrats want that as well, it's just that the three small parties (far-left, green and neo-liberal) that propped them up last term disagree so they can't. They might even be quietly relieved with this outcome since it will fall on the right to do the systematic changes the Social Democrats want to make but couldn't do with the company they were forced into by the parliamentary reality. That means they can just point to the status quo if they return in four years time and refuse to undo the changes made.
Finally, it was a big rebuke of the small-party domination in Swedish politics. Never before have three parties gained 70 % of the seats. I think that's a good thing because it makes it a lot easier to get stuff done rather than being shut down by loud 5 % parties.
My prediction right now now? 49.6 % for the right and 48.8 % for the left.