Author Topic: UK General Election - Mordaunt, Mogg and Mad Liz all gone - STARMERGEDDON  (Read 314507 times)

Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7440 on: June 24, 2024, 01:59:56 pm »
I say you are wrong that the data says you are wrong, too.

I can imagine it now, 'the public aren't ready to be given the vote.'  'Women, definitely not'

A well-functioning, properly funded NHS - not for me, Clive  ;)

How about renationalising water? Nope.

Cobblers using hyperbole, good sir. Labour plan to give 16-17 year olds the vote; that's common sense, not radical. And given 40% of 18-34 year olds weren't even arsed registering to vote, the impact may only be marginal. The right to vote is no longer considered a radical concept.

Perhaps we are using different definitions of "transformative"? We live in an age where common sense policy is portrayed as subversive, whilst the batshit ones are mutton dressed as lamb.

We need change, but until the media are brought to heel - because hysteria sells - Labour need to treat voters with kid gloves. The electorate have been traumatised. Baby steps are needed.
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Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7441 on: June 24, 2024, 02:03:12 pm »

It seems that that the BBCode used by SMF does not recognise TH (Table Header) tags. Instead, try this:
Code: [Select]
[table]
[tr]
[td][/td]
    [td]CON[/td]
    [td]LAB[/td]
    [td]LIB[/td]
    [td]Reform[/td]
    [td]Green[/td]
    [td]NAT[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td][/td]
    [td]19.70%[/td]
    [td]39.50%[/td]
    [td]11.80%[/td]
    [td]15.80%[/td]
    [td]8.90%[/td]
    [td]4.00%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Winners[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Greater Than 6%[/td]
    [td]23[/td]
    [td]399[/td]
    [td]40[/td]
    [td]3[/td]
    [td]2[/td]
    [td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]3 - 6%[/td]
    [td]19[/td]
    [td]40[/td]
    [td]18[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Less Than 3%[/td]
    [td]27[/td]
    [td]29[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]1[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Total[/td]
    [td]69[/td]
    [td]468[/td]
    [td]62[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]2[/td]
    [td]25[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Runners Up[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Greater Than 6%[/td]
    [td]214[/td]
    [td]43[/td]
    [td]8[/td]
    [td]146[/td]
    [td]43[/td]
    [td]24[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]3 - 6%[/td]
    [td]46[/td]
    [td]27[/td]
    [td]2[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Less Than 3%[/td]
    [td]32[/td]
    [td]27[/td]
    [td]5[/td]
    [td]1[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]3[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Total[/td]
    [td]292[/td]
    [td]97[/td]
    [td]15[/td]
    [td]147[/td]
    [td]43[/td]
    [td]36[/td][/tr][/table]

CONLABLIBReformGreenNAT
19.70%39.50%11.80%15.80%8.90%4.00%
Winners
Greater Than 6%23399403211
3 - 6%1940187
Less Than 3%2729417
Total69468624225
Runners Up
Greater Than 6%2144381464324
3 - 6%462729
Less Than 3%3227513
Total29297151474336
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Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7442 on: June 24, 2024, 02:31:01 pm »
I think it is a theory JC. Both Far Left and Far Right are hostile to representative democracy. They despise toleration as a political idea. They gravitate towards the Strong Man as leader. They use mobs as a matter of principle.

Frottage and Galloway have their analogues throughout history. We know that many German Communists folded their flags in 1933 and joined the Nazis. It was but a small step for them. We also know that many Nazis took off their uniforms at the end of the war and joined - and officered - the Socialist Unity Party which ruled without opposition in the GDR. Again, it didn't violate any fundamental principle for them to do this. They could even keep their anti-semitism.
Semantic point. But a theory should really explain something (horseshoe theory does not really do this); and it should allow us to make predictions. I do think there is some validity to the observation that the extreme left and extreme right do meet on certain points (totalitarianism and antisemitism are the most obvious examples to me). It is sometimes called the 'horseshoe effect' - this seems more apt to me.

Irrespective, Frottage and Galloway deserve each other. And a small part of me hopes to see them form an alliance. :)
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7443 on: June 24, 2024, 02:51:31 pm »
🗳️ GB Poll: Focaldata
(MRP seat projection based on demographic extrapolation)

🌹 Labour 450 (+248)
🌳 Conservatives 110 (-255)
🔸 Lib Dems 50 (+39)
🎗️ SNP 16 (-32)
🌻 Plaid Cymru 2 (-2)
🌍 Green 1 (0)
➡️ Reform UK 1 (+1)
👤 Others 2 (+1)
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Offline oldfordie

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7444 on: June 24, 2024, 03:11:51 pm »
Semantic point. But a theory should really explain something (horseshoe theory does not really do this); and it should allow us to make predictions. I do think there is some validity to the observation that the extreme left and extreme right do meet on certain points (totalitarianism and antisemitism are the most obvious examples to me). It is sometimes called the 'horseshoe effect' - this seems more apt to me.

Irrespective, Frottage and Galloway deserve each other. And a small part of me hopes to see them form an alliance. :)
Brexit is a example of the Horseshoe theory.
You can tell his dad was a toolmaker. That’s an impressive cabinet he’s put together..

Offline Circa1892

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7445 on: June 24, 2024, 03:13:19 pm »
Have all elections had this many polls?

It's kind of boring... every day just pumping out the same thing.

Offline Schmarn

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7446 on: June 24, 2024, 03:22:26 pm »
Have all elections had this many polls?

It's kind of boring... every day just pumping out the same thing.

Way more than there used to be. In the 90s there was basically Gallup, Mori, ICM and maybe one other.

Got to say I love the deluge of polls and the new MRPs.

Offline Riquende

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7447 on: June 24, 2024, 03:22:50 pm »
Have all elections had this many polls?

It's kind of boring... every day just pumping out the same thing.

The Graun's John Harris opined similar just yesterday.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/23/landslide-polling-companies-election-labour

Rather than just reflecting the news cycle, the polls themselves have become news.

I've no love for him, but I saw a great clip of Norman Lamont having a right go at a GB News presenter who tried 3 times to ask him about the dire polls last week. Blew up and said it was ridiculous to ask for a comment about them and he should be asking about the election itself.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7448 on: June 24, 2024, 03:25:35 pm »
Have all elections had this many polls?

It's kind of boring... every day just pumping out the same thing.

It's just very easy these days. You get people to click on your poll, and the software spits out the new data ready for tweeting, graphs and all. When someome had to manually add up numbers on paper, it took much longer.
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Offline Lisan Al Gaib

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7449 on: June 24, 2024, 03:26:13 pm »
Have all elections had this many polls?

It's kind of boring... every day just pumping out the same thing.

One a week would be more than enough but we seem to have at least 2 or 3 a day and its just not interesting

Offline WhereAngelsPlay

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7450 on: June 24, 2024, 03:44:37 pm »
Have all elections had this many polls?

It's kind of boring... every day just pumping out the same thing.

Every c*nt with a social media account, think they're a pollster nowadays.
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Offline Schmarn

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Online Elmo!

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7452 on: June 24, 2024, 03:56:44 pm »
This is a great headline.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/24/tories-are-a-shower-of-shit-says-conservative-candidate-james-cracknell

A shower of shit.... much like what rowers like Cracknell experience when they row in our rivers these days.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7453 on: June 24, 2024, 04:02:44 pm »
Brexit* is a example of the Horseshoe theory.
Yes! Or, at least, the 'horseshoe effect'. :)

* How could I forget to include that!? ???
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7454 on: June 24, 2024, 04:07:03 pm »
Every c*nt with a social media account, think they're a pollster nowadays.

I'm surprised I've not seen a deluge of polls created by Andy.
Not saying he's a c*nt like 😀
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7455 on: June 24, 2024, 04:15:21 pm »
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/maidstone/news/nigel-Frottage-arrives-in-kent-on-campaign-trail-308767/

Quote
Hundreds of people queued in the blistering heat to listen to Nigel Frottage as he continued his campaign trail.
...
People queued on the grass opposite the Mercure Great Danes Hotel, in Hollingbourne, ahead of his arrival.
Water was being offered to those waiting in the heat as they sat looking at a Reform UK-branded bus.


Fuckinell, they'll be looking more gammon than usual by the end of that!

A Tory, a worker and an immigrant are sat round a table. There's a plate of 10 biscuits in the middle. The Tory takes 9 then turns to the worker and says "that immigrant is trying to steal your biscuit"

Offline Lusty

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7456 on: June 24, 2024, 04:23:50 pm »
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/maidstone/news/nigel-Frottage-arrives-in-kent-on-campaign-trail-308767/


Fuckinell, they'll be looking more gammon than usual by the end of that!


Ugh, just down the road from me.  Don't think they're going to be competitive round here though.

Offline classycarra

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7457 on: June 24, 2024, 04:30:14 pm »
Was someone saying horseshoe effect of far and far right having loads in common? Timely given today's front cover - featuring aplogism for Putin, and alignment being drawn between Galloway, Farrage, Corbyn (and Stop The War)



Always worth remembering that when they refer to being 'anti-war'/'peace' activists, what they really mean is they're anti- the people who criticise people who attack the West

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7458 on: June 24, 2024, 04:31:37 pm »
Have all elections had this many polls?

It's kind of boring... every day just pumping out the same thing.

I read a small piece on the polling companies, basically political polling and election polling is just a marketing thing the companies do to get their name out there, their main business is running focus groups and doing market research for companies and organisations.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7459 on: June 24, 2024, 04:34:08 pm »

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7460 on: June 24, 2024, 04:35:47 pm »
I read a small piece on the polling companies, basically political polling and election polling is just a marketing thing the companies do to get their name out there, their main business is running focus groups and doing market research for companies and organisations.

Yep, which is why most of the claims of polling companies being biased is bollocks. It's in their interest to be as accurate as possible as they stake their reputation on it to generate other business.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7461 on: June 24, 2024, 04:56:57 pm »
Always worth remembering that when they refer to being 'anti-war'/'peace' activists, what they really mean is they're anti- the people who criticise people who attack the West
It took me three goes, but I got there eventually. :)
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If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

Offline cornishscouser92

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7462 on: June 24, 2024, 05:00:48 pm »
Labour leads Reform by 23%.

Joint-highest Reform %.

Joint-lowest Conservative %.

🇬🇧 Westminster VI (21-24 June):

Labour 42% (–)
Reform UK 19% (–)
Conservative 18% (–)
Lib Dem 12% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)

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Offline smicer07

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7463 on: June 24, 2024, 05:18:43 pm »
19% duped by Frottage
18% still voting for Sunak 🙄

Offline Schmarn

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7464 on: June 24, 2024, 05:20:30 pm »
🗳️ GB Poll: Focaldata
(MRP seat projection based on demographic extrapolation)

🌹 Labour 450 (+248)
🌳 Conservatives 110 (-255)
🔸 Lib Dems 50 (+39)
🎗️ SNP 16 (-32)
🌻 Plaid Cymru 2 (-2)
🌍 Green 1 (0)
➡️ Reform UK 1 (+1)
👤 Others 2 (+1)

The implied national vote shares are Labour on 41.4%, Conservatives on 23.0%, Reform UK on 15.5%, Liberal Democrats on 11.3%, Green on 5.2%, SNP on 2.5%, Plaid Cymru 0.4% and other on 0.6%. The sample was June 3 to 20 so won’t pick up Gamblegate properly.

Offline Schmidt

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7465 on: June 24, 2024, 05:23:12 pm »
It's wild that Reform/Tory combined still get close to Labour in terms of vote share.

Offline Schmarn

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7466 on: June 24, 2024, 05:33:27 pm »
New MIC poll

voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16
🔴 LAB 41% (+2)
🔵 CON 25% (-)
🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1)
🟣 REF UK 15% (+1)
🟢 GRN 5% (-)
🟡 SNP 2%(-1)
Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046

Offline TheShanklyGates

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7467 on: June 24, 2024, 05:35:44 pm »
Saw this graph earlier and thought it was interesting - basically shows which campaign gaffes have had 'cut through' with voters. D-day and the gambling scandal are unsurprisingly the big two.



https://xcancel.com/LukeTryl/status/1805240223996993833
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Offline billyliddell01

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7468 on: June 24, 2024, 05:38:34 pm »

It seems that that the BBCode used by SMF does not recognise TH (Table Header) tags. Instead, try this:
Code: [Select]
[table]
[tr]
[td][/td]
    [td]CON[/td]
    [td]LAB[/td]
    [td]LIB[/td]
    [td]Reform[/td]
    [td]Green[/td]
    [td]NAT[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td][/td]
    [td]19.70%[/td]
    [td]39.50%[/td]
    [td]11.80%[/td]
    [td]15.80%[/td]
    [td]8.90%[/td]
    [td]4.00%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Winners[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Greater Than 6%[/td]
    [td]23[/td]
    [td]399[/td]
    [td]40[/td]
    [td]3[/td]
    [td]2[/td]
    [td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]3 - 6%[/td]
    [td]19[/td]
    [td]40[/td]
    [td]18[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Less Than 3%[/td]
    [td]27[/td]
    [td]29[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]1[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Total[/td]
    [td]69[/td]
    [td]468[/td]
    [td]62[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]2[/td]
    [td]25[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Runners Up[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Greater Than 6%[/td]
    [td]214[/td]
    [td]43[/td]
    [td]8[/td]
    [td]146[/td]
    [td]43[/td]
    [td]24[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]3 - 6%[/td]
    [td]46[/td]
    [td]27[/td]
    [td]2[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Less Than 3%[/td]
    [td]32[/td]
    [td]27[/td]
    [td]5[/td]
    [td]1[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]3[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
    [td]Total[/td]
    [td]292[/td]
    [td]97[/td]
    [td]15[/td]
    [td]147[/td]
    [td]43[/td]
    [td]36[/td][/tr][/table]

CONLABLIBReformGreenNAT
19.70%39.50%11.80%15.80%8.90%4.00%
Winners
Greater Than 6%23399403211
3 - 6%1940187
Less Than 3%2729417
Total69468624225
Runners Up
Greater Than 6%2144381464324
3 - 6%462729
Less Than 3%3227513
Total29297151474336
Thanks again JC

Offline gazzalfc

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7469 on: June 24, 2024, 06:04:37 pm »
Harry Cole: “Would another six months have helped you turn it all around?”

Rishi Sunak: “No.”

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7470 on: June 24, 2024, 06:12:19 pm »
Was someone saying horseshoe effect of far and far right having loads in common? Timely given today's front cover - featuring aplogism for Putin, and alignment being drawn between Galloway, Farrage, Corbyn (and Stop The War)



Always worth remembering that when they refer to being 'anti-war'/'peace' activists, what they really mean is they're anti- the people who criticise people who attack the West

The writer of the article is of course Andrew Philip Drummond-Murray, the aristocrat and former Special Advisor to Jeremy Corbyn when he used to lead the Labour Party. A convinced Putinist.
"If you want the world to love you don't discuss Middle Eastern politics" Saul Bellow.

Offline Shankly998

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7471 on: June 24, 2024, 06:34:07 pm »
Harry Cole: “Would another six months have helped you turn it all around?”

Rishi Sunak: “No.”

He's not wrong

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7472 on: June 24, 2024, 06:44:16 pm »
Check out those youngsters:

Reform is the second most popular party in the 18-24 demographic.



Much like Trump in America, Reform are having a good campaign on TikTok.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2024, 06:46:07 pm by Kashinoda »
:D

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7473 on: June 24, 2024, 06:44:35 pm »
Saw this graph earlier and thought it was interesting - basically shows which campaign gaffes have had 'cut through' with voters. D-day and the gambling scandal are unsurprisingly the big two.



https://xcancel.com/LukeTryl/status/1805240223996993833
The proportion of morons in the electorate is quite staggering. Some of things and percentages which 'reflects badly on the party' is mind-boggling to me. The sheep, paddle-board and toolmaker 'incidents' in particular.
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Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7474 on: June 24, 2024, 06:49:31 pm »
Reform is the second most popular party in the 18-24 demographic.


Yes. But if you look at Conservative and Reform combined, they are the lowest by age group. It is actually fairly encouraging.
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7475 on: June 24, 2024, 06:57:08 pm »
Yes. But if you look at Conservative and Reform combined, they are the lowest by age group. It is actually fairly encouraging.

Not sure I follow, combining Reform and Conservative results in second place in groups 18-54 and first 55+. Basically par for the course.
:D

Offline Schmarn

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7476 on: June 24, 2024, 07:05:22 pm »
Deltapoll
Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll.
Con 19% (-)
Lab 43% (-3)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Reform 15% (-1)
SNP 2% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 2% (+1)
Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7477 on: June 24, 2024, 07:51:38 pm »
Not sure I follow, combining Reform and Conservative results in second place in groups 18-54 and first 55+. Basically par for the course.
Tory/Reform combined:

18-24: 23%
25-34: 25%
35-44: 28%
45-54: 29%
55-64: 40%
65 plus: 42%
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7478 on: June 24, 2024, 08:04:25 pm »
The writer of the article is of course Andrew Philip Drummond-Murray, the aristocrat and former Special Advisor to Jeremy Corbyn when he used to lead the Labour Party. A convinced Putinist.

It was when Murray’s daughter joined Corbyn’s team alongside dad and Seumus Milne, that I did something I wouldn’t have thought possible; I wrote a long letter to Ian McNichol explaining that I was resigning my Labour Party membership, because the Party had been taken over by Trotskyists and Kremlin sympathisers. (I rejoined as soon as they were gone).
"The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology...as long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth." Mikhail Bakunin

Offline oldfordie

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7479 on: June 24, 2024, 08:16:16 pm »
It was when Murray’s daughter joined Corbyn’s team alongside dad and Seumus Milne, that I did something I wouldn’t have thought possible; I wrote a long letter to Ian McNichol explaining that I was resigning my Labour Party membership, because the Party had been taken over by Trotskyists and Kremlin sympathisers. (I rejoined as soon as they were gone).
Murray left the Communist party to join the Labour party alongside Corbyn so it's not a matter of opinion it's fact.
You can tell his dad was a toolmaker. That’s an impressive cabinet he’s put together..