Topic: UK General Election - Mordaunt, Mogg and Mad Liz all gone - STARMERGEDDON

[Fromola]

Apparently the daily mail are leading with a story about the Russian ambassador describing Farrage as an ally.

He and tice and spitting feathers.  Earlier today Farrage threatened legal action against the Ukrainian president for the same reason.

Whe you push them in on what  they are actually like, they don’t like it.

The Daily Mail helped strongarm him to stand down the Brexit Party in 2019.

They're really panicking now. All the things everyone knew about Nigel but ignored are coming out. He was the useful idiot that pushed Brexit and pushed the Tories further right, now he's the bogeyman.

[spider-neil]

The Tory newspapers have shifted from trying to tear down Labour to focusing on tearing down Reform and it's about time.

[thaddeus]

Has anyone modelled what the tipping point would be where Reform UK vote share starts to translate into seats?  At the moment it feels like Reform may take a lot of second places from the Tories but only realistically win a couple of seats.

[hide5seek]

So you  agree with what I said earlier its not always down to funding.

On this issue, as Alistair Campbell often says, its down to Labour to make a better case for what they do.

But in his day, '97, Labour had  a lot more press on its side. This time they're all lined up against  Labour and everything Labour says and does needs to be  carefully considered.
We'll only know what Labour is  going to do once in power. I believe  they'' slowly be more left-wing as they go forward  and will drag the people with them.

[Kenny's Jacket]

But in his day, '97, Labour had  a lot more press on its side. This time they're all lined up against  Labour and everything Labour says and does needs to be  carefully considered.
We'll only know what Labour is  going to do once in power. I believe  they'' slowly be more left-wing as they go forward  and will drag the people with them.

I hope you are correct, but I fear you wont be, I also think.  This government is hated to the extent that Starmer could dig up the corpse of Lizzie Windsor, do her from behind wearing a Hitler mask and still get a massive majority.

The Tories have given up.

I hope the LDs form the opposition. 

[Red Beret]

The Tory newspapers have shifted from trying to tear down Labour to focusing on tearing down Reform and it's about time.

Surprised it took them this long. The Tories have turned into Man Utd - too much time wasted trying to chase down what's ahead of them instead of looking over their shoulder looking at what's coming up behind.

Has anyone modelled what the tipping point would be where Reform UK vote share starts to translate into seats?  At the moment it feels like Reform may take a lot of second places from the Tories but only realistically win a couple of seats.

I don’t know myself. I imagine it's hard to model because of FPTP.  Back in 1983, the SDP/Liberal Alliance got about 26% of the vote, but only 23 seats. The Lib-Dems now probably won't get more than 12%, but could nab anything from 45 to 65 seats going by the polls.

As we know, it's not about how much support Deform have, but how it's distributed that matters.

[billyliddell01]

Has anyone modelled what the tipping point would be where Reform UK vote share starts to translate into seats?  At the moment it feels like Reform may take a lot of second places from the Tories but only realistically win a couple of seats.

Electoral Calculus has Reform in second place after the election in 147 seats.
In one of them the margin is < 3%.
In the other 146 the margin is > 6%

(Wish I knew how to post a spreadsheet...)

[classycarra]

I hope you are correct, but I fear you wont be, I also think.  This government is hated to the extent that Starmer could dig up the corpse of Lizzie Windsor, do her from behind wearing a Hitler mask and still get a massive majority.

The Tories have given up.

I hope the LDs form the opposition. 

nah - the government in 2019 had masses of 'dissatisfied' and palpable hatred against it too. it's more now, but that's not unique.

you're just not crediting the work that's gone in to change the perception of the party since then. in doing so, the logical implication is that Starmer is an overwhelmingly popular figure who's untouchable even if he scandalised - i'm fairly sure that's not your intent

putting the same labour offer from 2019 into this election would make it much harder to call. the tories are giving up because of what they've come up against, because they know they can't beat it

[Andy @ Allerton!]

nah - the government in 2019 had masses of 'dissatisfied' and palpable hatred against it too. it's more now, but that's not unique.

you're just not crediting the work that's gone in to change the perception of the party since then. in doing so, the logical implication is that Starmer is an overwhelmingly popular figure who's untouchable even if he scandalised - i'm fairly sure that's not your intent

putting the same labour offer from 2019 into this election would make it much harder to call. the tories are giving up because of what they've come up against, because they know they can't beat it

Yeah Starmer has done very, very well at changing the perception. All the shit they are throwing at him about the last leader isn't even seen as credible any more.

I still like his line against Sunak when he said that the UK wasn't 'safe' with Labour and Starmer.

How to make a petulant little anti-UK little shit look like a petulant anti-UK little shit.

Probably not the best idea to have a go at someone actually protecting the UKs interesst while you're actively betting against it.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Electoral Calculus has Reform in second place after the election in 147 seats.
In one of them the margin is < 3%.
In the other 146 the margin is > 6%

(Wish I knew how to post a spreadsheet...)

Try this:

https://tableconvert.com/excel-to-bbcode

[Yorkykopite]

I think we can see what George Galloway's next step will be.

https://xcancel.com/EuropeanWith/status/1804896049460338997/photo/1

Britain's own version of the Nazi-Soviet Pact.

[Kenny's Jacket]

nah - the government in 2019 had masses of 'dissatisfied' and palpable hatred against it too. it's more now, but that's not unique.

you're just not crediting the work that's gone in to change the perception of the party since then. in doing so, the logical implication is that Starmer is an overwhelmingly popular figure who's untouchable even if he scandalised - i'm fairly sure that's not your intent

putting the same labour offer from 2019 into this election would make it much harder to call. the tories are giving up because of what they've come up against, because they know they can't beat it

Starmer definitely increased Labours electability by not being Corbyn, who would constantly put targets on his back plus hate for the Tories has grown, even Tories no longer want them eg Iain Dale who declared he coukdnt vote for them, but would never vote Labour. His way out of that conundrum was to try and become an MP, I think that mission has already failed though.

Your point, I guess, is that Starmer has to remain un-radical to still win, I dont agree. VAT on private schools has done then no harm, despite constant attempts from the RWM.
The likes of Richard Walker are not going to cling to a sinking, corrupt, Conservative party

[Jiminy Cricket]

I think we can see what George Galloway's next step will be.

https://xcancel.com/EuropeanWith/status/1804896049460338997/photo/1

Britain's own version of the Nazi-Soviet Pact.

So-called 'horseshoe' theory is mentioned quite a lot around here. Of course, not really a theory, but more of an observation. And here we seem to have an example of it in action. I can see Galloway and Frottage becoming great allies in Parliament if they both are elected.*

* I've not been following it, but isn't the possibility of Galloway being re-elected unlikely? I do hope so.

[billyliddell01]

Try this:

https://tableconvert.com/excel-to-bbcode

Thanks JC

[TSC]

So-called 'horseshoe' theory is mentioned quite a lot around here. Of course, not really a theory, but more of an observation. And here we seem to have an example of it in action. I can see Galloway and Frottage becoming great allies in Parliament if they both are elected.*

* I've not been following it, but isn't the possibility of Galloway being re-elected unlikely? I do hope so.

Putin, Trump et all must be giggling.  Extremists alliance.

[Red Beret]

If the Tories really have given up, then the wipeout predictions may gather steam over the next 10 days or so. Their only weapon left, as Campbell implied, is voter apathy. But that's likely to only affect their own supporters.

[cornishscouser92]

Just 21 safe Tory seats according to the average for all the MRP's

[oldfordie]

I think we can see what George Galloway's next step will be.

https://xcancel.com/EuropeanWith/status/1804896049460338997/photo/1

Britain's own version of the Nazi-Soviet Pact.

It's so easy to dismiss Galloways little remark at the end of his tweet.
How we can expect Fireworks if he and Frottage are elected into Parliament, it would be a mistake to ignore this as it actually plays a big part in the appeal for some people, one vox pop man just said he's thinking of voting reform because he thinks it will put the cat amongst the pigeons. we saw this appeal during Brexit, the 2 fingers up to Parliament. 
I would argue a vote for either is a vote to return to the days of the Brexit with the country in chaos at each others throats.

[billyliddell01]

Winners and Runner Ups from Electoral Calculus:

[th][/th]     [th]CON[/th]     [th]LAB[/th]     [th]LIB[/th]     [th]Reform[/th]     [th]Green[/th]     [th]NAT[/th]
	19.70%	39.50%	11.80%	15.80%	8.90%	4.00%
Winners
Greater Than 6%	23	399	40	3	2	11
3 - 6%	19	40	18			7
Less Than 3%	27	29	4	1		7
Total	69	468	62	4	2	25
Runners Up
Greater Than 6%	214	43	8	146	43	24
3 - 6%	46	27	2			9
Less Than 3%	32	27	5	1		3
Total	292	97	15	147	43	36

Sorry, not got the hang of this yet...

CON could range from 23 to about 100 if they win all the marginals (pretty unlikely I would have thought).
LAB from 399 to about  500.

Rish! would lose his seat at the low end of this.

[Red Beret]

It's so easy to dismiss Galloways little remark at the end of his tweet.
How we can expect Fireworks if he and Frottage are elected into Parliament, it would be a mistake to ignore this as it actually plays a big part in the appeal for some people, one vox pop man just said he's thinking of voting reform because he thinks it will put the cat amongst the pigeons. we saw this appeal during Brexit, the 2 fingers up to Parliament. 
I would argue a vote for either is a vote to return to the days of the Brexit with the country in chaos at each others throats.

Trump-esque. "Come to the Capitol Jan 6th, will be wild!"

[Red-Soldier]

I hope you are correct, but I fear you wont be, I also think.  This government is hated to the extent that Starmer could dig up the corpse of Lizzie Windsor, do her from behind wearing a Hitler mask and still get a massive majority.

The Tories have given up.

I hope the LDs form the opposition.

I agree.

This is the anti-Tory election and people are desperate for change.  There is real public support for many transformative policies, across the board.

Lack of good leadership/governance, is why we ffind ourselves (nationally and interrnationally) in such a state.  Lets hope all the progressive voices can make a difference, after the election.

[Red Beret]

Winners and Runner Ups from Electoral Calculus:

I noticed a few things in their latest MRP. First, Labour support is now less than 40% compared to the Tories' 44.7% in 2019. But obviously that's due to the fragmentation of the vote on the right, and the centre/left concentrating their fire through tactical voting to cause maximum damage.

The second thing I noticed is that whilst the (obviously not gonna happen) high watermark prediction for Tory seats was 227, the low end was 41, whilst the most likely is predicted as 76. Those two numbers are awfully close together compared to the best outcome.

For me, that suggests the Tories getting fewer than 155 seats is very likely, and there's a very realistic chance for the LDs to end up as the official opposition.

[oldfordie]

Trump-esque. "Come to the Capitol Jan 6th, will be wild!"

Yeah, thankfully the UKs shown they don't like the chaos these people bring even though they liked the idea of them bringing Fireworks to Parliament.
They were all for sticking 2 fingers up to parliament, hating Politicians, they did nothing but moan when the politicians were at each others throats for the next 4 yrs so they just wanted it to stop. same people are falling for it again with Frottage and Galloway.

[spider-neil]

Just 21 safe Tory seats according to the average for all the MRP's

An overlay of the affluent areas over the blue areas will not be a surprise. The country could go down the shitter and they would still vote blue.

[Red Beret]

I agree.

This is the anti-Tory election and people are desperate for change. There is real public support for many transformative policies, across the board.

Lack of good leadership/governance, is why we find ourselves (nationally and internationally) in such a state.  Lets hope all the progressive voices can make a difference, after the election.

Just because everyone hates the Tories doesn't mean people are eager for transformative or radical policies. As you point out, they may simply just be craving competent governance.

People keep saying Labour need to be bold and radical. I say most of the country aren't ready for it. Voters are exhausted. What we need is a government that can get the basics right, get everyone feeling calm again, and move forward from there. Try to force feed voters radical now, and they'll just throw up. Brexit was radical; people have had enough of radical. People just want to feel safe and secure.

[Red Beret]

An overlay of the affluent areas over the blue areas will not be a surprise. The country could go down the shitter and they would still vote blue.

The country HAS gone down the shitter.

[Kashinoda]

Boris laying into Frottage over Russia.

'nauseating ahistorical drivel and more Kremlim propaganda'

[Red-Soldier]

Just because everyone hates the Tories doesn't mean people are eager for transformative or radical policies. As you point out, they may simply just be craving competent governance.

People keep saying Labour need to be bold and radical. I say most of the country aren't ready for it. Voters are exhausted. What we need is a government that can get the basics right, get everyone feeling calm again, and move forward from there. Try to force feed voters radical now, and they'll just throw up. Brexit was radical; people have had enough of radical. People just want to feel safe and secure.

I say you are wrong that the data says you are wrong, too.

I can imagine it now, 'the public aren't ready to be given the vote.'  'Women, definitely not'

A well-functioning, properly funded NHS - not for me, Clive 

How about renationalising water? Nope.

[Musketeer Gripweed]

Just over a week to go and so far I've had the sum total of 2 (two) pamphlets put through my door, one SNP and one Labour. I've not seen any party logos on any lamp posts or houses and haven't heard of any campaigning going on at all in my area.

The polls show it 58% to 42% in favour of Labour here, so no real surprise there is no being spent by any of the other candidates being on the doorsteps, but surely the 2 main parties here would be making some form of effort to secure votes.

Please tell me that this sort of apathy isn't going on all over the country.

[classycarra]

Your point, I guess, is that Starmer has to remain un-radical to still win, I dont agree. VAT on private schools has done then no harm, despite constant attempts from the RWM.
The likes of Richard Walker are not going to cling to a sinking, corrupt, Conservative party

no that's a bad guess - think my point was pretty clear without that odd addition

[Kenny's Jacket]

no that's a bad guess - think my point was pretty clear without that odd addition

Ive made an error, which suggests it wasn't clear, its not odd to want to seek clarity.

[classycarra]

Ive made an error, which suggests it wasn't clear, its not odd to want to seek clarity.

yep, and obviously absolutely fine to do that - just found it odd you brought up radicalism and a couple of guys names (are they tories?) which didn't feature at all in what I said. and disagree, you throwing those into the mix randomly doesn't suggest a lack of clarity now, does it

i think i understand it though, you felt the need to diminish a suggestion that Starmer et al's work deserves credit, by damning him with the faint praise (/crediting him!) for not being like Corbyn

[Kenny's Jacket]

yep, and obviously absolutely fine to do that - just found it odd you brought up radicalism and a couple of guys names (are they tories?) which didn't feature at all in what I said.

i understand it though, you felt the need to diminish a suggestion that Starmer et al's work deserves credit, by damning him with the faint praise (/crediting him!) for not being like Corbyn

It really is a minefield discussing stuff with you and after a polite and reasonable post you attack me as being odd, I genuinely cant be arsed with it.

Perhaps you can give me the reason why you started a discussion with me, be clear on your point and the parameters and I might reply.
If you cant do thatm then fine

[classycarra]

It really is a minefield discussing stuff with you and after a polite and reasonable post you attack me as being odd, I genuinely cant be arsed with it.

Perhaps you can give me the reason why you started a discussion with me, be clear on your point and the parameters and I might reply.
If you cant do thatm then fine

I think they call this projection - given the stuff you sling at people and grenades you throw!

You're happy labeling people bigots etc, and putting words in people's mouths then attacking those made up words (which you did to me). But then when something you wrote is described as "odd" you get hypersensitive, and falsely pretend I attacked you by calling you (not your point) "odd"

[Yorkykopite]

So-called 'horseshoe' theory is mentioned quite a lot around here. Of course, not really a theory, but more of an observation. And here we seem to have an example of it in action. I can see Galloway and Frottage becoming great allies in Parliament if they both are elected.*

* I've not been following it, but isn't the possibility of Galloway being re-elected unlikely? I do hope so.

I think it is a theory JC. Both Far Left and Far Right are hostile to representative democracy. They despise toleration as a political idea. They gravitate towards the Strong Man as leader. They use mobs as a matter of principle.

Frottage and Galloway have their analogues throughout history. We know that many German Communists folded their flags in 1933 and joined the Nazis. It was but a small step for them. We also know that many Nazis took off their uniforms at the end of the war and joined - and officered - the Socialist Unity Party which ruled without opposition in the GDR. Again, it didn't violate any fundamental principle for them to do this. They could even keep their anti-semitism.

[markedasred]

Take away the disgust and emotion from the logic and I'm reasonably confident that the presence of Reform under Frottage is having a positive effect for Labour. There is a block of disaffected tories that are split three ways now, Some have gone to Reform, some LD, the others Labour, like the phone billionaire has. Their very existence almost guarantees the tories end up third and Frottage still has no seats, then just heads out to America to help Trump fail over there. Starmer played a blinder in his low key reassurance meetings with business heads, and alongside Europe drifting right, has made London instead of Paris the biggest financial centre in Europe again. Part of that happening was the 99% chance of Labour being in power in a fortnight.

[spider-neil]

The best think Starmer could do now is just keep his head down. Nige and Sunak are doing a brilliant job of destroying themselves.

[Kenny's Jacket]

I think they call this projection - given the stuff you sling at people and grenades you throw!

You're happy labeling people bigots etc, and putting words in people's mouths then attacking those made up words (which you did to me). But then when something you wrote is described as "odd" you get hypersensitive, and falsely pretend I attacked 3you by calling you (not your point) "odd"

So whatever we were discussing, in the last 10 mins a way to just have a go at me?  (thats a question not a statement)Im fine with that btw, I literally just want to know,

when I wrote "I guess" I wasnt putting words in your mouth, I was actively trying not to do that and thats why I used those words. 

If you engaged with me today as a way of criticising me for things I have previously done and said in the past, just say so and save us both the time.   

using the word attack when you said my reply was odd will look a bit over sensitive I admit, perhaps I just a  bit taken aback by your reply.

[Red-Soldier]

Been out leafletting today.  Blood hot!

[TSC]

Boris laying into Frottage over Russia.

'nauseating ahistorical drivel and more Kremlim propaganda'

Where’s the unredacted Russia report Boris?