Topic: UK General Election - Mordaunt, Mogg and Mad Liz all gone - STARMERGEDDON

[Kashinoda]

NEW:
@RestisPolitics
 / JLP poll,  June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Too many polls and too many TV debates at this point. It's mad, everyone needs to have one

I'm doubling down that the saturation of polls will hurt Labour a fair bit. Tories to get 150-170 seats when all is said and done. On the beers for anything under.

[Nobby Reserve]

Too many polls and too many TV debates at this point. It's mad, everyone needs to have one

I'm doubling down that the saturation of polls will hurt Labour a fair bit. Tories to get 150-170 seats when all is said and done. On the beers for anything under.

I'd settle for them getting 200 seats if it meant stopping the frog-faced fascist getting a toehold in Parliament

[oldfordie]

Too many polls and too many TV debates at this point. It's mad, everyone needs to have one

I'm doubling down that the saturation of polls will hurt Labour a fair bit. Tories to get 150-170 seats when all is said and done. On the beers for anything under.

That is a concern, Labour are well aware of it as well and sending out a message for voters not to take a Labour win for granted and to get out and vote.
I suppose we will hear people attacking Labour for taking voters for granted if Labour do worse than predicted, that will be boll... it will be the voters who took the win for granted not Labour.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

I was going to comment how ironic it is that so many here talk about the cost of living and people should be able to earn a proper wage but tradespeople are ripping us off when they charge 180/200 a day!

As a tradesperson myself it's laughable that folks think that's a rip off 😕

£180/200 a day isn't a rip off but the job example I gave regarding my partner was £1350 per day! That was to fill some cracks, repaint the walls and fix some creaky floorboards in a two bed flat! £180/200 a day would have been a dream!

[Black Bull Nova]

Too many polls and too many TV debates at this point. It's mad, everyone needs to have one

I'm doubling down that the saturation of polls will hurt Labour a fair bit. Tories to get 150-170 seats when all is said and done. On the beers for anything under.

The best thing about loads of polls is that you can add them all up and get one decent one with less statistical error.


As regards the tories, D Day and Betting has cost them loads of seats on top of what you might normally of expected. Proper Mail/Express stuff that but the wrong way round and dominated the headlines (which is all most swing voters read).

[Schmarn]

Low turnout is indeed a danger although the fact that Labour has strengthened its support among 25+ voters is huge because it's the 18-24s who historically have a dismal record of turning out to vote. Turn out is also going to hit the Tories hard as a lot of their 2019 voters feel betrayed but don't like the alternatives either.

I can see it ending up as Labour 39, Tory 23 with Labour winning around 440 seats. That will do but I'm still going to hope for a wipeout.

[BlackandWhitePaul]

I'm voting Reform. 

[So… Howard Philips]

I'm voting Reform.

Shouldn’t this be in the ‘Unpopular opinions’ thread?

[Yorkykopite]

I'm voting Reform. 

Dance to thy daddy, sing ti' thy mammy,   
Dance to thy daddy, ti' thy mammy sing;   
Thou shalt have a fishy on a little dishy,   
Thou shalt have a mackerel when the boat comes in.

[thaddeus]

I'm voting Reform.

What's your rationale?

[smicer07]

What's your rationale?

He supports Newcastle, he won't have a rationale.

[Kenny's Jacket]

Im pretty sure Paul was kidding

[Andy @ Allerton!]

I'm voting Reform. 

Were you the Geordie lad in Benidorm singing loads of Socialist songs about the Tories wrecking everything then at the end kept urging people to vote for a load of Nazis?

[Lisan Al Gaib]

Im pretty sure Paul was kidding

Yeah that's my impression too

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Im pretty sure Paul was kidding

He's not a big fan of immigrants.

[Kenny's Jacket]

He's not a big fan of immigrants.

Oh, Id not picked up on that to be honest

[Schmarn]

Savanta. Looks like the Reform attacks are working.

🌹Lab 42 (=)
🌳Con 21 (+2)
➡️Reform 14 (-2)
🔶LD 10 (+1)
🌍Green 5 (=)
🎗️SNP 3 (=)
⬜️Other 6 (=)

2,318 UK adults

21-24 June (chg from 19-21 June)

[TepidT2O]

https://xcancel.com/Adrian_Hilton/status/1805302823900344782

Bear in mind that Adrian is a former conservative candidate himself

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Oh, Id not picked up on that to be honest

Can you think of another reason to agree with this c*nt on anything ?





You didn't vote for Brexit, did you Paul ?

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Can you think of another reason to agree with this c*nt on anything ?





You didn't vote for Brexit, did you Paul ?

[dutchkop]

I'd settle for them getting 200 seats if it meant stopping the frog-faced fascist getting a toehold in Parliament

I heard Frottage on 5live last week and thought he did himself no favours and he was being called out for the out of mainstream ideas of his to his face.. even Reform voters thought him daft as he mentioned that he wanted to sort out the Conservatives and make them more Reform Brexit-like   

[thaddeus]

https://xcancel.com/Adrian_Hilton/status/1805302823900344782

Them trying to paint middle-of-the-road Starmer as the bogeyman is nearly as funny as that dreadful reverse-psychology messaging.  They, of course, did the same with Corbyn and it got some traction but they've really struggled to get anything to stick to Starmer.  I'm surprised they've not stooped to vague comments about Saville again.

[TSC]

Just saw that on the Guardian. Given how the Tories are pulling resources from many constituencies to try and defend ultra safe seats, CCHQ has probably just decided they're collateral damage already anyway. It's still lead to weeks of damaging headlines because Sunak is weak, and it doesn't answer the question of who knew about the date and when?

Sunak and the party will also continue to face questions as to why they didn't act sooner. Nobody's going to buy the explanation that something suddenly popped up in the investigation to convinced them.

YEah, and the suggestion Sunak had a bet is way of the mark.
He'd have to stake millions for it to be worth him to place a bet. And the bookies would be red-flagging it instantly.

This is a good point as it was a bit odd to Joe Public why these Tories put on such low bets.  Stupid enough to think by doing so wouldn’t raise an issue with bookies.  It may not have, until they went and laid multiple low value bets.  Greed always wins the day.

[Red Beret]

I heard Frottage on 5live last week and thought he did himself no favours and he was being called out for the out of mainstream ideas of his to his face.. even Reform voters thought him daft as he mentioned that he wanted to sort out the Conservatives and make them more Reform Brexit-like   

Frottage's comments genuinely baffled me. I know he's not used to getting much scrutiny when it comes to the drivel that passes for his policies, but this was a ridiculous own goal and it's not something I expected of him.

[TSC]

Sky news reporting this gambling story is intensifying by the hour.  5 more folk now being investigated.  Wonder how many Tories didn’t place bets?

[smicer07]

Sky news reporting this gambling story is intensifying by the hour.  5 more folk now being investigated.  Wonder how many Tories didn’t place bets?

I'd be surprised if Rishi wasn't in on it.

[Red Beret]

Sky news reporting this gambling story is intensifying by the hour.  5 more folk now being investigated.  Wonder how many Tories didn’t place bets?

Apparently police officers were in on it too.

[John C]

https://xcancel.com/supertanskiii/status/1805534025689297141?t=TcLSmxgKgJMRrtSjzyp2kQ&s=19

When a Brit on American TV doesn't have to follow UK election broadcasting rules

Magnificent.

[LovelyCushionedHeader]

Im pretty sure Paul was kidding

I wouldn't be so sure having previously seen his X account.

I'm fact, I'm pretty certain he was being serious.

[Jiminy Cricket]

I'd settle for them getting 200 seats if it meant stopping the frog-faced fascist getting a toehold in Parliament

Rygel Fαrαge?

[Red Beret]

Rygel Fαrαge?

Rygel actually has some guts.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

The full John Oliver bit can be found on the below link.

https://xcancel.com/edwinhayward/status/1805567776779534547?t=lvvd7AkbmNlwbqHrffTq4g&s=19

[Kashinoda]

Labour have now suspended candidate Kevin Craig due to Gambling Commission investigation into him.

[Kashinoda]

Bet on himself to lose the seat, fucking tit. Glad Labour were immediately on it and released a statement.

[Commie Bobbie]

Bet on himself to lose the seat, fucking tit. Glad Labour were immediately on it and released a statement.

Fucking hell, what a prized twot.

[Kashinoda]

Fucking hell, what a prized twot.

Likely leads to a lost seat now I imagine.

[oldfordie]

Bet on himself to lose the seat, fucking tit. Glad Labour were immediately on it and released a statement.

Idiot, he can't have won that much, I can hear Sunak already. I won't take any lectures off Keir Starmer over the betting, clean up his own party before he lectures me.
All as bad as each other will be smiling.

[Commie Bobbie]

Likely leads to a lost seat now I imagine.

Possibly, but Labour have also announced that they are going to give back the £100,000 that Craig has given the party.

Principled.

[TepidT2O]

Possibly, but Labour have also announced that they are going to give back the £100,000 that Craig has given the party.

Principled.

Yep… that and they can afford to do so as they’ve had millions in donations during the campaign

[Wabaloolah]

It all depends on tactical voting. nobody really knows. I don't believe the polls are taking this into consideration, the bookies are though and am certain they've done their homework. they have Labour at evens for 450-500 seats, with Labour at 400-450 as 2nd favourite. so your not far out according to the bookies, 450-500 will be my predication as well.

Torys are 4/7 for less than 100 seats  I still can't get my head around that but it must be a possibility if people vote tactically.

yes I think tactical voting will happen in lots of marginal and not so marginal constituencies and will be the key to achieving Tory wipeout