Topic: UK General Election - Mordaunt, Mogg and Mad Liz all gone - STARMERGEDDON

[koptommy93]

The crowds turning up for Farrage are scary big and shouldn’t be laughed off.

I agree, not good at all and could be very very bad if/when people turn on a labour government

[Lisan Al Gaib]

I was watching one of the BBC political correspondents on the lunch time news who had been 'out on the streets' gathering the 'opinions' of the 'electorate'. She was saying that the younger generation of voters are not interested in issues such as the NHS crisis, they are more interested in the housing crisis and being able to own a home and also environmental issues to a lesser extent. The Greens are becoming a popular option with them as they do not feel that either Labour or the Tories are addressing the housing crisis. I can't help but feel voting Green is a protest vote, I guess the younger generation feel disaffected, no wonder there is such a low turn out amongst that group. I'll caveat that statement by saying that I couldn't help but feel that particular correspondent appeared to me to be selling their own narrative on this, I have no proof of course.

That can't be real? The Greens are proposing to build less houses than Labour are!

[TepidT2O]

I agree, not good at all and could be very very bad if/when people turn on a labour government

And they will. Because literally every political movement fails at some point.

[TSC]

I agree, not good at all and could be very very bad if/when people turn on a labour government

Looked like a garden fete to be fair.  Handful of older folk listening to Frottage attacking Johnson.  Probably confused the audience that.

[classycarra]

That can't be real? The Greens are proposing to build less houses than Labour are!

In a country filled with NIMBY attitudes across the spectrum the greens (and lib dems) really stand out - that'd be an irrational and hilarious reason to vote green for sure.

Someone mentioned their pals in Brighton being canvassed by the greens close to 9pm and I thought it was wild they'd risk upsetting them, given what they must know about voters who'd potentially consider greens - NIMFY!

[Kenny's Jacket]

And they will. Because literally every political movement fails at some point.

Has there been much analysis into what demographic are voting reform, is it too lazy to label it an older age working class movement.

[Yosser0_0]

That can't be real? The Greens are proposing to build less houses than Labour are!

I can't find the name of the correspondent now but there was a statement in there about them wanting to vote Green even though a candidate was not standing in their area?
 

I just came away wondering whether I'd just heard the ideological view of the correspondent being projected rather some large group of voters. Maybe I'm just overly suspicious about what I hear in the media.

[thaddeus]

Has there been much analysis into what demographic are voting reform, is it too lazy to label it an older age working class movement.

I'm social media friends with loads of lads I played football with over the years, some are about 20 years younger than me.  A good proportion of those are now sharing and liking posts praising Reform UK.  What's telling is that the posts they're liking are about reducing immigration to push wages up for working class people and to bring down the cost of housing (it's of course over-simplified messaging but it's clearly resonating).

Labour will need to make a real effort to appeal to and help workers because otherwise Reform will pick them off.  If the plan is to aim for marginally higher GDP and rely on trickle down economics then they will be easy prey for opportunists like Farrage.

[PaulF]

The one picture I saw was about 40-50 people, almost all of them over 60 years old.

Not many for sure , but you can expect most of them to bother going to the polling station.

[Yorkykopite]

Yeah, and I think because Attlee handled domestic issues and kept the home fires burning with the war economy etc, workers and unions and industry representatives would likely have been very familiar with him and how he worked, despite Churchill's far higher public profile. He seemed to act as a vital go between and facilitator within government.

Had a quick glance at his Wiki entry and this popped out:

I mean honestly you could replace "Attlee" with "Starmer" and would it be any different?

It was the same in the USA. President Truman was another so-called "little man". The democratic world was fed-up with 'Supermen'. They'd mesmerised crowds in the 1930s with their hateful and hysterical rhetoric, embarked on mad military adventures and brought the world to the brink of annihilation. The attraction of the "modest man with much to be modest about" (as Churchill called Attlee when he wasn't accusing him of wanting to create a Gestapo) was very strong indeed.

I sense it's different now though. Attlee's personality was a vote-winner. Starmer will win despite his image. A blowhard like Farridge would have had no chance in 1945 - people would have been scared off by his inflammatory rhetoric, his absurd posturing and his palpable hatred for foreigners. Many people now find those things extremely attractive. There again, we'd just fought a world war in '45 and that tended to give people a sense of proportion and take the vote seriously.

[Yorkykopite]

The crowds turning up for Farrage are scary big and shouldn’t be laughed off.

The crowds turning up for Corbyn were scary big too but Labour hit an all-time low when it came to actually voting.

[PaulF]

I'm social media friends with loads of lads I played football with over the years, some are about 20 years younger than me.  A good proportion of those are now sharing and liking posts praising Reform UK.  What's telling is that the posts they're liking are about reducing immigration to push wages up for working class people and to bring down the cost of housing (it's of course over-simplified messaging but it's clearly resonating).

Labour will need to make a real effort to appeal to and help workers because otherwise Reform will pick them off.  If the plan is to aim for marginally higher GDP and rely on trickle down economics then they will be easy prey for opportunists like Farrage.

I know there's neglible (if any) impact on housing costs, but has brexit pushed up trade rates? I'd imagine interest rates are a bigger factor.
I'm just thinking about how to counter the argument that fewer immigrants = higher wages.
(not because I think it'll make a blind bit of difference, but I love a good argument.  )

[Kenny's Jacket]

I'm social media friends with loads of lads I played football with over the years, some are about 20 years younger than me.  A good proportion of those are now sharing and liking posts praising Reform UK.  What's telling is that the posts they're liking are about reducing immigration to push wages up for working class people and to bring down the cost of housing (it's of course over-simplified messaging but it's clearly resonating).

Labour will need to make a real effort to appeal to and help workers because otherwise Reform will pick them off.  If the plan is to aim for marginally higher GDP and rely on trickle down economics then they will be easy prey for opportunists like Farrage.

Thats why I asked really.Will it soon become Labours problem and will that push Labour to the right ?

[west_london_red]

That can't be real? The Greens are proposing to build less houses than Labour are!

The problem is no one is talking about housing enough, its all been taxes and immigration as usual when if your under 30 id imagine housing is the most important single issue.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

Has there been much analysis into what demographic are voting reform, is it too lazy to label it an older age working class movement.

There's not much difference to be honest, they seem to be picking up votes across the spectrum

[Draex]

The crowds turning up for Corbyn were scary big too but Labour hit an all-time low when it came to actually voting.

Problem with Glasto, no-one remembered it the next day

[Lisan Al Gaib]

The problem is no one is talking about housing enough, its all been taxes and immigration as usual when if your under 30 id imagine housing is the most important single issue.

But Labour are proposing 300k houses a year whilst the Greens are only proposing 150k if I remember correctly? People shouldn't need to get their stats from the news and should be reading up about it themselves!

[Kenny's Jacket]

There's not much difference to be honest, they seem to be picking up votes across the spectrum

Thanks, thats concerning.  A mix of ideological racists and blue collar workers is my unscientific assessment of that quite even spread

[thaddeus]

I know we're all a bit jaded with polls but a couple from yesterday. 

Deltapoll (21 - 24 June, compared to 14 - 17 June): 1,568 respondents

Labour 43 (-3)
Tory 19 (0)
Lib Dem 13 (+3)
Green 5 (0)
Reform 15 (-1)
SNP 2 (0)

Redfield and Wilton (21 - 24 June, compared to a smaller poll on 19 - 20 June): 10,000 respondents
Labour 42 (0)
Tory 18 (0)
Lib Dem 12 (+1)
Green 6 (+1)
Reform 19 (0)
SNP 3 (0)

As was to be expected Labour are seemingly consistently losing a few voters as the election nears but nothing significant in view of the Tories not gaining any.  I expect they'll end up with something like a 40% vote share - very similar to Corbyn in 2017 - but it feels like they could have attracted more voters with more ambitious pledges.  They'll almost certainly succeed in ousting the Tories though and hopefully it will be a case of them under-promising and over-delivering which will be a nice change after all the hot air that Bozo spouted off.

[Yorkykopite]

Problem with Glasto, no-one remembered it the next day

Those who were there didn't. But crusty old Corbynistas who had never been to Glasto, and never would go, still talk about it to this day. "We had the youth of Britain marching leftward toward a Marxist-Leninist Utopia. And then Liar Starmer came along and liquadated the Revolution".

[Red Beret]

It was the same in the USA. President Truman was another so-called "little man". The democratic world was fed-up with 'Supermen'. They'd mesmerised crowds in the 1930s with their hateful and hysterical rhetoric, embarked on mad military adventures and brought the world to the brink of annihilation. The attraction of the "modest man with much to be modest about" (as Churchill called Attlee when he wasn't accusing him of wanting to create a Gestapo) was very strong indeed.

I sense it's different now though. Attlee's personality was a vote-winner. Starmer will win despite his image. A blowhard like Farridge would have had no chance in 1945 - people would have been scared off by his inflammatory rhetoric, his absurd posturing and his palpable hatred for foreigners. Many people now find those things extremely attractive. There again, we'd just fought a world war in '45 and that tended to give people a sense of proportion and take the vote seriously.

The big difference between Attlee and Starmer is that Attlee had a proven track record in government as deputy prime minister, despite his apparent underwhelming demeanour. Starmer is a bit of an unknown quantity when it comes to heading a government, despite having previously served in office.

But I think once he feels confident enough he will surprise a few. Labour's campaign has been pragmatic. Not exactly upbeat, but I'd say cautiously positive; trying to persuade people that things can improve with a bit of common sense.

Farrage sees himself as a new Oswald Mosley. In 1945 people had had enough of that shit. But people forget history unfortunately.

[Red-Soldier]

The problem is no one is talking about housing enough, its all been taxes and immigration as usual when if your under 30 id imagine housing is the most important single issue.

Maybe not.  However, Labour score well on housing and should be pushing it more, especially towards the young.  It's the second biggest issue for younger voters.

[thaddeus]

Thats why I asked really.Will it soon become Labours problem and will that push Labour to the right ?

I hope they don't take the lazy (Tory) approach of dog whistle politics and a resulting social move to the right.  It would be far better if they were true to the history of Labour and made an economic move to the left, with better wealth distribution and provision of universal services (health, education, social care, transport etc.).

If they try to take on Reform on issues like immigration then they will get crushed from all sides.  The Tories couldn't manage it despite it being a more natural position for them.

[Yorkykopite]

The big difference between Attlee and Starmer is that Attlee had a proven track record in government as deputy prime minister, despite his apparent underwhelming demeanour. Starmer is a bit of an unknown quantity when it comes to heading a government, despite having previously served in office.

But I think once he feels confident enough he will surprise a few. Labour's campaign has been pragmatic. Not exactly upbeat, but I'd say cautiously positive; trying to persuade people that things can improve with a bit of common sense.

Farrage sees himself as a new Oswald Mosley. In 1945 people had had enough of that shit. But people forget history unfortunately.

That's true. Although for anyone who cares about things like past achievements Keir Starmer's record as Director of Public Prosecutions might seem impressive.

[Draex]

Those who were there didn't. But crusty old Corbynistas who had never been to Glasto, and never would go, still talk about it to this day. "We had the youth of Britain marching leftward toward a Marxist-Leninist Utopia. And then Liar Starmer came along and liquadated the Revolution".

Ideas don't run countries.

[Red Beret]

I know we're all a bit jaded with polls but a couple from yesterday. 

As was to be expected Labour are seemingly consistently losing a few voters as the election nears but nothing significant in view of the Tories not gaining any.  I expect they'll end up with something like a 40% vote share - very similar to Corbyn in 2017 - but it feels like they could have attracted more voters with more ambitious pledges.  They'll always certainly succeed in ousting the Tories though and hopefully it will be a case of them under-promising and over-delivering which will be a nice change after all the hot air that Bozo spouted off.

Is the question "who do you support?" or "who are you going to vote for?" It could just be a case that the tactical vote is firming up for the Lib Dems.

Labour support seems to be rock solid,  but between 16-24 points, depending on pollsters and methodology. That's a fairly broad range.

One thing is for sure, Jason is gonna be busy on election night.

[Red Beret]

That's true. Although for anyone who cares about things like past achievements Keir Starmer's record as Director of Public Prosecutions might seem impressive.

Oh absolutely. But sadly it's a rather niche role, and likely seen by many to be as bland as Starmer himself. 😅

[Jiminy Cricket]

After a border change a sitting Labour MP is now my Labour candidate, his leaflet arrived, I researched him, unfortunately hes not to my tastes.

What's the Tory candidate like?

[Jiminy Cricket]

The 18-24 drop I suspect will be because the party said it would abolish tuition fees in 2019

Not Gaza?

[smicer07]

James Cleverly just got his arse handed to him by Yvette Cooper on LBC. She was fantastic.

[thaddeus]

I know there's neglible (if any) impact on housing costs, but has brexit pushed up trade rates? I'd imagine interest rates are a bigger factor.
I'm just thinking about how to counter the argument that fewer immigrants = higher wages.
(not because I think it'll make a blind bit of difference, but I love a good argument.  )

House prices have hardly flickered despite the higher interest rates, it seems like buyers have just responded by taking longer mortgages as that's still better than renting.

My brother is a self-employed electrician and I know a few other people in trades and they've put their rates up massively in the past five years as the demand far outstrips the supply (I guess because of Brexit and not enough apprenticeships).  I don't think it's those people that Labour need to be worrying about as they're for all intents and purposes the new middle classes.  The people left behind are those working jobs where there's been little to no wage inflation but they're still subject to all the inflation.  Retail, hospitality, public sector, call centre workers etc.

[Yorkykopite]

Not Gaza?

Has anybody asked Farrago what he thinks about conscription? An honest answer (as if!) would soon shake the kids awake.

[Millie]

James Cleverly just got his arse handed to him by Yvette Cooper on LBC. She was fantastic.

Yes she was.  I mean 8 Home Secretaries since May - no wonder they are in such a mess.  Meanwhile I believe Yvette has been in her position for years. 

[Kenny's Jacket]

What's the Tory candidate like?

Well, a Tory

[thaddeus]

James Cleverly just got his arse handed to him by Yvette Cooper on LBC. She was fantastic.

I had that on as well.  Cleverly is one of the finest examples of an MP promoted far above his abilities based almost entirely on him backing Brexit and his blind loyalty to whoever is fleetingly in #10.  I wonder if he'll ever be viewed as a "grandee" in the way a lot of former Tory ministers are.

Cooper running rings around Tory home secretaries has been one of the rare bright points in the recent years of Tory rule.  She's always so well informed and prepared.

[thaddeus]

Well a Tory

Similar problem here except it's in reverse in that we've had a merger and been left with a neighbouring Tory and an out-of-towner Labour candidate.  To be honest, if I was voting based on the quality and rhetoric of their fliers then I'd be voting for the Tory.

I'll vote for the Labour candidate, especially as it seems like it's neck and neck, but I really wish Labour could have found a better candidate.

[KurtVerbose]

I agree, not good at all and could be very very bad if/when people turn on a labour government

The only time we've had an extreme government has been when the opposition has been either split or useless - Thatcher in the 80's and the current government when Corbyn was heading up Labour. When elections have been closer the parties have generally moved to the centre. The key to keeping Frottage and his like out of power is to always present a more reasonable alternative.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Has anybody asked Farrago what he thinks about conscription? An honest answer (as if!) would soon shake the kids awake.

It would be interesting to hear him attempt to answer that. Given his recent comments, rather than equivocate, he might well blurt out the wrong answer.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Well, a Tory

But who will vote for since the Labour guy is 'not to your tastes'?

[Kenny's Jacket]

Similar problem here except it's in reverse in that we've had a merger and been left with a neighbouring Tory and an out-of-towner Labour candidate.  To be honest, if I was voting based on the quality and rhetoric of their fliers then I'd be voting for the Tory.

I'll vote for the Labour candidate, especially as it seems like it's neck and neck, but I really wish Labour could have found a better candidate.

The joys of FPTP.