Topic: UK General Election - Mordaunt, Mogg and Mad Liz all gone - STARMERGEDDON

[Redbonnie]

Yes, the Labour Party did. And unlike Christabel Pankhurst who wasn't keen on giving the poor and propertyless the vote, Labour stood for universal suffrage.

But wasn’t it the conservatives who passed the act as the preceding labour govt didn’t have a big enough majority?  You can’t compare then to now of course but my point is that labour is running a fantastic campaign. Madness to say they should be doing things differently.

[Riquende]

we've had a Labour leaflet, at least my daughter has (first general election for her). Seen a few posters in gardens whilst driving around, current score is 14 Labour, 2 Plaid Cymru.

I've had literature through today. I thought the differing approaches was worthy of comment:

Labour - doesn't mention the local candidate at all or, even have any pictures of him, Sarwar or Starmer. Just the various Tory PMs and some blurb about Change.

Reform - big pictures of Tice and of course Frottage, although it does have a small bit with the local candidate's name at least

SNP - candidate focused, big close-up pic of him on the front and the party logo. It's currently an SNP seat but I don't think he's the incumbent

Tories - nothing yet, they might have redirected the printing costs down to shore up some "safe" seat somewhere

[west_london_red]

12….Maybe 12:30…

Thursday night, I’m totally knackered at the best of times.

That’s my usual time to go to bed but as I have booked the 5th off I can push the boat out a few hours further.

[Redbonnie]

we've had a Labour leaflet, at least my daughter has (first general election for her). Seen a few posters in gardens whilst driving around, current score is 14 Labour, 2 Plaid Cymru.

Not seen a single Tory banner anywhere, usually there are some on farmland throughout the constituency but not a peep this time

Had Maria Eagle knocking on my door in her very safe seat. I volunteered for labour and was asked to campaign in ribble valley so there does seem to be a focus on marginals.

[west_london_red]

I’ve had two leaflets through the post, one from Reform which I tore up without reading and one from the Lib Dem’s which was very much focused on the candidate, nothing from the Tories or Labour.

[Wabaloolah]

This is a great headline.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/24/tories-are-a-shower-of-shit-says-conservative-candidate-james-cracknell

begs the question why the stupid bastard is standing under their banner then!

[Kenny's Jacket]

After a border change a sitting Labour MP is now my Labour candidate, his leaflet arrived, I researched him, unfortunately hes not to my tastes.

[Wabaloolah]

Labour have gained a lot of support from older age groups but have been stagnant or plummeted with younger voters:

2019 Election vs Redfield & Wilton Poll, % vote share:
18-24: 62 -> 44 (-18)
25-34: 51 -> 48 (-3)
35-44: 39 -> 42 (+3)
45-54: 28 -> 39 (+11)
55-64: 27 -> 29 (+2)
65+: 17 -> 31 (+14)

what's the sample size? I imagine the MoE will be quite high

[west_london_red]

what's the sample size? I imagine the MoE will be quite high

The 18-24 drop I suspect will be because the party said it would abolish tuition fees in 2019

[Wabaloolah]

That should be interesting!

I will see if I can get the 4th off to help out with some of the election day stuff.

We've got Owen Jones here tomorrow, that should be a treat for everyone

milkshakes at the ready!

[Yorkykopite]

But wasn’t it the conservatives who passed the act as the preceding labour govt didn’t have a big enough majority?  You can’t compare then to now of course but my point is that labour is running a fantastic campaign. Madness to say they should be doing things differently.

Yes, that is true. But the original pre-1914 agitation for the vote was supported by the Labour Party (and opposed by the Liberal government and the Tory opposition).

[Wabaloolah]

I’m thinking I can stay up until about 3am, hopefully by that time we’ve had a few counts come in and hopefully a Portillo moment or two, I was up late enough to watch the actual Portillo moment in 1997 because I was off school for some reason the following day that escapes me.

I think I stayed up until about 4am in 1997. I was off the next day as we were moving house and had to collect a 7.5 tonne wagon with air brakes as we moved ourselves. That was a fun drive particularly using the brakes for the first time and coming to a complete halt despite only lightly touching them! 😃

[Wabaloolah]

The 18-24 drop I suspect will be because the party said it would abolish tuition fees in 2019

yes that might well be the case, forgot about that policy

[Wabaloolah]

After a border change a sitting Labour MP is now my Labour candidate, his leaflet arrived, I researched him, unfortunately hes not to my tastes.

hopefully it's a safe Labour seat then and others don't share your views on him

[Red Beret]

Did any political party stand on the agenda of giving women the vote ? No because it was not a popular stance, hence the jumping in front of the kings horse etc. Gay marriage not a vote winner either, it was introduced by a conservative govt following Blair cautiously paving the way with civil partnership.

A radical manifesto will mean a smaller majority with a reduced ability to pass radical bills,

Starmer is a very effective politician. His alliance with Sue Gray an absolute master stroke. As someone who has followed every election since 1983 this is a magnificent campaign. It’s not a joyful one like Blair in 1997 but it is exactly what it needs to be. Starmer is about deliver to labour a majority which will provide a platform for meaningful change.

This. People demanding Starmer be radical pre-election is nuts. Clement Atlee had a 145 majority in 1945 and got a lot done, but somehow managed to blow the whole thing in 1950-51. People might say there's not much difference between a majority of, say 150 and Labour gaining a majority of perhaps 220 (to pluck random figures from the air), but there's absolutely no reason to rule anything in or out at this stage.

And yes, I know Labour have apparently ruled things in or out; but the Brexit campaign said we should give £350m to the NHS and that never happened either. A politician might lie because they know the electorate are stupid and don't know what's good for them, but that's a door that can swing both ways, for good and bad.

[afc tukrish]

milkshakes at the ready!

all the boys brought to the yard?

[Wabaloolah]

This. People demanding Starmer be radical pre-election is nuts. Clement Atlee had a 145 majority in 1945 and got a lot done, but somehow managed to blow the whole thing in 1950-51. People might say there's not much difference between a majority of, say 150 and Labour gaining a majority of perhaps 220 (to pluck random figures from the air), but there's absolutely no reason to rule anything in or out at this stage.

And yes, I know Labour have apparently ruled things in or out; but the Brexit campaign said we should give £350m to the NHS and that never happened either. A politician might lie because they know the electorate are stupid and don't know what's good for them, but that's a door that can swing both ways, for good and bad.

Attlee still won a majority 1950 although it was around 4 or 5 seats I think. I'm still not entirely sure why he called another election in 1951, although I believe it was to try and win a larger majority. Clearly that was a mistake given that the Tories were then in power for 13 years

[Red Beret]

Attlee still won a majority 1950 although it was around 4 or 5 seats I think. I'm still not entirely sure why he called another election in 1951, although I believe it was to try and win a larger majority. Clearly that was a mistake given that the Tories were then in power for 13 years

Yeah, that's exactly what happened. I've been reading up on it, he had a majority of just six I think. So he basically did a Theresa May and it backfired, only much much worse.

I was just reading up on the 1945 election and I think there are parallels between Atlee and Starmer; both seem to be relatively uninspiring, but after a period of turmoil Atlee was viewed as a safe, competent choice. I think during the war coalition, Atlee had handled domestic policy whilst Churchill oversaw the war, but I could be wrong on that.

Starmer certainly faces similar levels of strife with a country struggling in the midst of an identity crisis.

[Red Beret]

In other news, seems like it was a fun time for Frottage today. Had a complete meltdown over Bozo giving him both barrels and doubled down on his Russia comments.

Don't know why Frottage is so surprised. Bozo's actions when it comes to Ukraine are probably the only part of his "legacy" that hasn't been left in complete tatters. Of course he was going to kick off and defend it.

[Kashinoda]

No leaflets for any party here in Hove, 17k Labour majority last election so maybe no one is arsed. Greens are being quite aggressive down the road in Brighton, mates have had plenty of leaflets through and door knocks as late at 9PM which is pissing some off. Will be interesting to see if they can keep hold.

Still registered to vote in Southend, Essex as my mum lives in my old house. I'll question the legitimacy of that later but hopefully will be contributing to the Tories losing a traditional safe seat.

[Wabaloolah]

Yeah, that's exactly what happened. I've been reading up on it, he had a majority of just six I think. So he basically did a Theresa May and it backfired, only much much worse.

I was just reading up on the 1945 election and I think there are parallels between Atlee and Starmer; both seem to be relatively uninspiring, but after a period of turmoil Atlee was viewed as a safe, competent choice. I think during the war coalition, Atlee had handled domestic policy whilst Churchill oversaw the war, but I could be wrong on that.

Starmer certainly faces similar levels of strife with a country struggling in the midst of an identity crisis.

yes there are similarities, the other one being the country is broke and mortgaged to the hilt.

I'm sure I've read somewhere that Attlee didn't expect to win, they expected the country to back Churchill after leading the country during the War. Churchill was the right leader for the time, I still love hearing his wartime speeches and those leading up to.the conflict but Attlee was trusted by the public to lead the countries recovery.

Churchill was also unpopular of course in parts of the country, particularly in Wales after after he sent the troops in against the miners in 1910 whilst a member of the Liberal government, people have very long memories

The scale of the victory surprised everyone, not sure people will be as surprised this time though

[Wabaloolah]

No leaflets for any party here in Hove, 17k Labour majority last election so maybe no one is arsed. Greens are being quite aggressive down the road in Brighton, mates have had plenty of leaflets through and door knocks as late at 9PM which is pissing some off. Will be interesting to see if they can keep hold.

Still registered to vote in Southend, Essex as my mum lives in my old house. I'll question the legitimacy of that later but hopefully will be contributing to the Tories losing a traditional safe seat.

fuck the legitimacy, vote where your vote will mean more

[Red Beret]

yes there are similarities, the other one being the country is broke and mortgaged to the hilt.

I'm sure I've read somewhere that Attlee didn't expect to win, they expected the country to back Churchill after leading the country during the War. Churchill was the right leader for the time, I still love hearing his wartime speeches and those leading up to.the conflict but Attlee was trusted by the public to lead the countries recovery.

Churchill was also unpopular of course in parts of the country, particularly in Wales after after he sent the troops in against the miners in 1910 whilst a member of the Liberal government, people have very long memories

The scale of the victory surprised everyone, not sure people will be as surprised this time though

I recall hearing a recording of a party political broadcast by Churchill where he said Labour would need a special, "Gestapo" type police force to keep order. I have a vague memory of historians saying this broadcast essentially killed Churchill's chances in the election, but that might be an exaggeration. Even then, though, the Tories were scareperson that I find irritatingering voters when it came to Labour.

I think that comment might have reminded people of what Churchill had done, as you said in 1910 against the miners, but also in Liverpool where troops open fired on strikers and he anchored a warship in the Mersey. He was the guy used to sending the troops in against civilians, and it seems he jogged a lot of memories.

[Kashinoda]

fuck the legitimacy, vote where your vote will mean more

Indeed, not like I'm double-registered anyway. Won't be losing any sleep for sure.

[Wabaloolah]

I recall hearing a recording of a party political broadcast by Churchill where he said Labour would need a special, "Gestapo" type police force to keep order. I have a vague memory of historians saying this broadcast essentially killed Churchill's chances in the election, but that might be an exaggeration. Even then, though, the Tories were scareperson that I find irritatingering voters when it came to Labour.

I think that comment might have reminded people of what Churchill had done, as you said in 1910 against the miners, but also in Liverpool where troops open fired on strikers and he anchored a warship in the Mersey. He was the guy used to sending the troops in against civilians, and it seems he jogged a lot of memories.

yes I seem to remember hearing about that speech, think it may have been in one of my A Level history classes. A stupid thing to say and yes definitely would have reminded him of what he was capable of doing

[Wabaloolah]

Indeed, not like I'm double-registered anyway. Won't be losing any sleep for sure.

yep and all you need is photo ID, it doesn't need your address on it! 😬

[Red Beret]

yes I seem to remember hearing about that speech, think it may have been in one of my A Level history classes. A stupid thing to say and yes definitely would have reminded him of what he was capable of doing

Yeah, and I think because Attlee handled domestic issues and kept the home fires burning with the war economy etc, workers and unions and industry representatives would likely have been very familiar with him and how he worked, despite Churchill's far higher public profile. He seemed to act as a vital go between and facilitator within government.

Had a quick glance at his Wiki entry and this popped out:

Many Labour activists were baffled by the top leadership role for a man they regarded as having little charisma; Beatrice Webb wrote in her diary in early 1940:

    "He looked and spoke like an insignificant elderly clerk, without distinction in the voice, manner or substance of his discourse. To realise that this little nonentity is the Parliamentary Leader of the Labour Party ... and presumably the future P.M. [Prime Minister] is pitiable"

I mean honestly you could replace "Attlee" with "Starmer" and would it be any different?

[Red Beret]

Found this re the 1945 election also:

Labour campaigned on the theme of "Let Us Face the Future", positioning themselves as the party best placed to rebuild Britain following the war, and were widely viewed as having run a strong and positive campaign, while the Conservative campaign centred entirely on Churchill. Despite opinion polls indicating a strong Labour lead, opinion polls were then viewed as a novelty which had not proven their worth, and most commentators expected that Churchill's prestige and status as a "war hero" would ensure a comfortable Conservative victory. Before polling day, The Manchester Guardian surmised that "the chances of Labour sweeping the country and obtaining a clear majority ... are pretty remote". The News of the World predicted a working Conservative majority, while in Glasgow a pundit forecast the result as Conservatives 360, Labour 220, Others 60. Churchill, however, made some costly errors during the campaign. In particular, his suggestion during one radio broadcast that a future Labour Government would require "some form of a gestapo" to implement their policies was widely regarded as being in very bad taste and massively backfired.

[TepidT2O]

The crowds turning up for Farrage are scary big and shouldn’t be laughed off.

[west_london_red]

The crowds turning up for Farrage are scary big and shouldn’t be laughed off.

The one picture I saw was about 40-50 people, almost all of them over 60 years old.

[No666]

we've had a Labour leaflet, at least my daughter has (first general election for her). Seen a few posters in gardens whilst driving around, current score is 14 Labour, 2 Plaid Cymru.

Not seen a single Tory banner anywhere, usually there are some on farmland throughout the constituency but not a peep this time

South Cambs: villages peppered with Lib Dem posters and blitzed with pamphlets. Seen one Labour poster, one Tory. Think this seat is about to flip from Tory (we had bloody Andrew Lansley at one point) for the first time since I've lived here. Only question is whether the Lib Dems can get an adjacent constituency as well. Cambridge itself is a Labour oasis surrounded traditionally by a sea of deeply depressing blue.

[S.Red please]

Quite frankly I’d like to vote Lib Dem in this election but in my constituency they don’t stand a chance, so it’s Labour to get the Tories out. Actually hoping for Lib Dem’s to become the main opposition, and over the next 5 years we actually have some kind of normalised political battles in the House of Commons instead of the cesspit of hateful lies the Tories/Frottage bring to the table.

[Schmarn]

No leaflets for any party here in Hove, 17k Labour majority last election so maybe no one is arsed. Greens are being quite aggressive down the road in Brighton, mates have had plenty of leaflets through and door knocks as late at 9PM which is pissing some off. Will be interesting to see if they can keep hold.

Still registered to vote in Southend, Essex as my mum lives in my old house. I'll question the legitimacy of that later but hopefully will be contributing to the Tories losing a traditional safe seat.

Ha, I grew up in Southend (near Eastwood off the Rayleigh Road). Was always Tory blue with the Libs putting up mild resistance. Labour were nowhere. Bizarre to see Labour now projected to win both seats there.

[Kenny's Jacket]

Quite frankly I’d like to vote Lib Dem in this election but in my constituency they don’t stand a chance, so it’s Labour to get the Tories out. Actually hoping for Lib Dem’s to become the main opposition, and over the next 5 years we actually have some kind of normalised political battles in the House of Commons instead of the cesspit of hateful lies the Tories/Frottage bring to the table.

Yeah Ive popsted before how Id like LDs to ber the official opposition, unfortunately I dont think it will happen.

[reddebs]

Not had any leaflets or door knocks here on Anglesey and the only posters I've seen in gardens are for Plaid. 

Hopefully they don't get in, they're all fucking nutters!!

[Dr. Beaker]

Yes, the Labour Party did. And unlike Christabel Pankhurst who wasn't keen on giving the poor and propertyless the vote, Labour stood for universal suffrage.

I'd like to know if she had a bet that day.

[KurtVerbose]

The one picture I saw was about 40-50 people, almost all of them over 60 years old.

Were they all wearing shirts of the same colour?

[Lusty]

The crowds turning up for Farrage are scary big and shouldn’t be laughed off.

The one negative of the collapse of the Tories is what's going to fill that gap.

I understand the challenges facing Starmer in government, but he's going to need something significant to show for his time in power otherwise I worry about what might be facing us in 2029.

Not going to stop me enjoying next week mind.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

After a border change a sitting Labour MP is now my Labour candidate, his leaflet arrived, I researched him, unfortunately hes not to my tastes.

If your alternative is a Tory will you bite your tongue and vote for the Labour candidate anyway?

[Yosser0_0]

I was watching one of the BBC political correspondents on the lunch time news who had been 'out on the streets' gathering the 'opinions' of the 'electorate'. She was saying that the younger generation of voters are not interested in issues such as the NHS crisis, they are more interested in the housing crisis and being able to own a home and also environmental issues to a lesser extent. The Greens are becoming a popular option with them as they do not feel that either Labour or the Tories are addressing the housing crisis. I can't help but feel voting Green is a protest vote, I guess the younger generation feel disaffected, no wonder there is such a low turn out aperson that I find irritatingst that group. I'll caveat that statement by saying that I couldn't help but feel that particular correspondent appeared to me to be selling their own narrative on this, I have no proof of course.