Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[redmark]

Tell me, is Lucas still the favourite, or has that time passed now? If so - and I've not seen her name mentioned - what about (and I cannot quite believe I am suggesting this), Anna Soubry as PM (in a GoNU)?

In many ways, I don't think it matters who the PM is, given they'll need to be working to quite a specific, pre-agreed programme of steps to prevent a No Deal and to implement an election/referendum (personally, I'd hold both on the same day).

Ken Clarke/Harriet Harman as the senior figures of the House? Grieve? Letwin? Benn? Vince Cable? Don't really mind.

[redmark]

The power of Prime Minister. I don't give a fuck if he was only PM for 1 minute. I never want, nor should he ever be PM for any length of time and I fully support Swinson's stance on this.

Fair enough - so you've made your choice and are willing to accept No Deal to die on the hill of not having Corbyn as PM for a minute.

[Jiminy Cricket]

In many ways, I don't think it matters who the PM is, given they'll need to be working to quite a specific, pre-agreed programme of steps to prevent a No Deal and to implement an election/referendum (personally, I'd hold both on the same day).

Ken Clarke/Harriet Harman as the senior figures of the House? Grieve? Letwin? Benn? Vince Cable? Don't really mind.

Neither do I. Any of them in the circumstances. But, who of them would command enough support across the House? And, what if Corbyn refuses to call a VoNC?

[Nobby Reserve]

The power of Prime Minister. I don't give a fuck if he was only PM for 1 minute. I never want, nor should he ever be PM for any length of time and I fully support Swinson's stance on this.

Well I hope you enjoy Brexit, then.

I'm off to stock up on tins of beans.


#cutnoseofftospiteface

[ShakaHislop]

Fair enough - so you've made your choice and are willing to accept No Deal to die on the hill of not having Corbyn as PM for a minute.

And you're willing to ignore how awful Corbyn is, and absolve the waste of space that is the rest of the Labour PLP of all blame. Good luck taking the moral high ground.

[ShakaHislop]

Well I hope you enjoy Brexit, then.

I'm off to stock up on tins of beans.


#cutnoseofftospiteface

The Brexit that the man you're asking the Lib Dems to put into power has been supporting over the past 3 years? I hope it's as good as he thinks it can be.

[redmark]

Neither do I. Any of them in the circumstances. But, who of them would command enough support across the House? And, what if Corbyn refuses to call a VoNC?

On the last point, I'm not sure he can refuse, politically. Whatever support remains for Corbyn amongst the cosmopolitan urban young vote would disappear.

If he calls one and other parties refuse to accept him as interim PM - and he refuses to accept anyone else - then we're at the whim of Johnson's election scheduling, but Corbyn can claim to have tried to stop No Deal (how hard is another matter).

If the Labour leadership refuses to back a Grive/Clarke/Harman government, they'll pay an electoral price for it. Much of this seems to be brinkmanship, like much else in Brexit world.

[Jiminy Cricket]

On the last point, I'm not sure he can refuse, politically. Whatever support remains for Corbyn amongst the cosmopolitan urban young vote would disappear.

If he calls one and other parties refuse to accept him as interim PM - and he refuses to accept anyone else - then we're at the whim of Johnson's election scheduling, but Corbyn can claim to have tried to stop No Deal (how hard is another matter).

If the Labour leadership refuses to back a Grive/Clarke/Harman government, they'll pay an electoral price for it. Much of this seems to be brinkmanship, like much else in Brexit world.

That's all fine and dandy, but since when has political reality informed Corbyn's decision making process? What you are saying makes sense, except, you know, Corbyn.

[classycarra]

On the last point, I'm not sure he can refuse, politically. Whatever support remains for Corbyn amongst the cosmopolitan urban young vote would disappear.

If he calls one and other parties refuse to accept him as interim PM - and he refuses to accept anyone else - then we're at the whim of Johnson's election scheduling, but Corbyn can claim to have tried to stop No Deal (how hard is another matter).

If the Labour leadership refuses to back a Grive/Clarke/Harman government, they'll pay an electoral price for it. Much of this seems to be brinkmanship, like much else in Brexit world.

My hope he'd call a VONC before recess was because I worry that he'll obfuscate again, knowing every day without it is harmful to chances of fitting in options around parliamentary schedule and is a victory for brexiteers.

I worry it won't be called for as long as he and Seumus think they can get away with it (plausible deniability wise), so maybe day three back

[Cpt_Reina]

Out of interest: if you had to choose between No Deal and preventing it with a unity government not led by Corbyn, which would you choose?

Preventing it obviously, I dgaf about Corbyn the man.

I know it suits this twitter led echo chamber to believe anyone still supporting the Labour party is some sort of Corbyn fan boy or brainwashed follower of the 'dear leader' but I really couldn't care less who is leading the Labour Party as long as they align themselves steadfastly with genuinely left policies and politics.

You can put Mighty Red in the hotseat for all I care as long as he's not some sort of centrist melt looking to cede ground to the Tories and 'come back to the centre'.

So if you replace Corbyn with someone who holds the same values, remove him for all I care.

That said, Corbyn has a mandate with his membership which voted overwhelmingly to put him in, and keep him in the job and far be it for Lib Dems or anyone else to try and undermine that.

No deal is the issue here, Corbyn leading the charge to avoid it being an issue is exactly the sort of bullshit politicking that I was led to believe the Lib Dems and centrists among us were bigger than...unless that was all bullshit?

[ShakaHislop]

Preventing it obviously, I dgaf about Corbyn the man.

I know it suits this twitter led echo chamber to believe anyone still supporting the Labour party is some sort of Corbyn fan boy or brainwashed follower of the 'dear leader' but I really couldn't care less who is leading the Labour Party as long as they align themselves steadfastly with genuinely left policies and politics.

You can put Mighty Red in the hotseat for all I care as long as he's not some sort of centrist melt looking to cede ground to the Tories and 'come back to the centre'.

So if you replace Corbyn with someone who holds the same values, remove him for all I care.

That said, Corbyn has a mandate with his membership which voted overwhelmingly to put him in, and keep him in the job and far be it for Lib Dems or anyone else to try and undermine that.

No deal is the issue here, Corbyn leading the charge to avoid it being an issue is exactly the sort of bullshit politicking that I was led to believe the Lib Dems and centrists among us were bigger than...unless that was all bullshit?

No mention of antisemitism from you. I'm not surprised.

[classycarra]

No deal is the issue here, Corbyn leading the charge to avoid it being an issue is exactly the sort of bullshit politicking that I was led to believe the Lib Dems and centrists among us were bigger than...unless that was all bullshit?

That said, Corbyn has a mandate with his membership which voted overwhelmingly to put him in, and keep him in the job and far be it for Lib Dems or anyone else to try and undermine that.

Hmm, bullshit politicking you say? After using protecting internal party politics from a man who has ignored his members and conference.

You can put Mighty Red in the hotseat for all I care as long as he's not some sort of centrist melt looking to cede ground to the Tories and 'come back to the centre'.

If you believe what you say, then there are dozens of Labour MPs you could get behind leading a 'unity' government - why the hostility to those in other parties who would prefer the chosen individual is someone with more certain anti-brexit credentials?

[ShakaHislop]

Jo Swinson tells me she has spoken to Ken Clarke and Harriet Harman and both have told her they are prepared to lead an emergency govt to stop No Deal and call an election. #c4news

https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1161948869044965378

What would be wrong with Harriet Harman?

[Cpt_Reina]

Hmm, bullshit politicking you say?
If you believe what you say, then there are dozens of Labour MPs you could get behind leading a 'unity' government - why the hostility to those in other parties who would prefer the chosen individual is someone with more certain anti-brexit credentials?

Because this isnt about being anti-brexit is it? Its about being anti no deal.

Which Labour and Corbyn have been consistent on, so this doesnt apply.

Again if you don't want to actually be the 'grown ups in the room' you claim to want, and to prevent no deal because Corbyn hasnt been anti-brexit in its entirety then fine you do you.

But then dont attempt to frame the conversation as being that Corbyn's Labour are the reason we're heading for or indeed achieving a no deal exit.

[ShakaHislop]

Because this isnt about being anti-brexit is it? Its about being anti no deal.

Which Labour and Corbyn have been consistent on, so this doesnt apply.

Again if you don't want to actually be the 'grown ups in the room' you claim to want, and to prevent no deal because Corbyn hasnt been anti-brexit in its entirety then fine you do you.

But then dont attempt to frame the conversation as being that Corbyn's Labour are the reason we're heading for or indeed achieving a no deal exit.

You're in no position to make this point when your party is stubbornly refusing to back virtually anyone else other than the man who has been proven to be unpopular with a range of groups, time and time again.

Your party hasn't been able to win so much as a fucking raffle since 2010, and part of it is because you rely on claiming victimhood and blaming others for your failings. The Lib Dems supporting any non-Lib Dem to be a PM is a compromise in itself. Demanding they support the one person they've already said they can't countenance is taking the piss. What exactly is the compromise Labour is making here? Every other party involved is offering something. What is Labour?

[ShakaHislop]

That's presumably one more Tory rebel you now have to find to help put Corbyn into power. Good luck.

https://twitter.com/ChrisLeslieMP/status/1161890301126074368

[classycarra]

Because this isnt about being anti-brexit is it? Its about being anti no deal.

Which Labour and Corbyn have been consistent on, so this doesnt apply.

Consistently inconsitent. If you imagine that everyone is as trusting as you that Corbyn is even anti no deal, then you are experiencing a failure in empathy.

And why does it matter to you, you say you don't care who it is as long as they avoid no deal brexit. Surely that's the ethos you would want from your leader too?

[ShakaHislop]

What about pro-Brexit Labour MPs? Are they all in the bag when it comes to a no confidence vote? It's not just Corbyn as PM they'll have to swallow but they'll know the intention of that particular VoNC is to at least delay Brexit. Will the likes of John Mann, who's a Brexiteer and a public critic of Labour's antisemitism problem abstain? What about Hoey, who doesn't have to worry about deselections and the like anymore? If her priority is Brexit, why wouldn't she vote with the government and help Johnson take us out on the 31st of October?

If any of those don't support the VoNC, again that's more Tory rebels you have to find to make up the difference.

Plus, there's the likes of Ian Austin and Kelvin Hopkins (still suspended, I believe) who are ex-Labour pro-Brexit independents.

[redmark]

And you're willing to ignore how awful Corbyn is, and absolve the waste of space that is the rest of the Labour PLP of all blame. Good luck taking the moral high ground.

No, I'm not. I've voted against him twice as leader and voted Lib Dem in the Euros. I've said before in discussion with you, I don't really see how the bulk of the PLP can go into a general election with Corbyn as leader, and I think that still holds. But being PM for a week with no ability to pass anything other than points relating to No Deal - pre-agreed with Tory rebels, PC, SNP, LD, Greens and various flavours of Labour MPs - isn't 'power'.

Yes, I'd prefer on balance a GNU led by a senior backbencher of any party than Corbyn - not least because I think a number of Tory MPs and others will ultimately come to the decision you have, and reject a Corbyn led GNU. But if they do, and the whole thing falls apart, they're just accepting a bit of the ample quantities of blame to go round.

[Cpt_Reina]

Consistently inconsitent. If you imagine that everyone is as trusting as you that Corbyn is even anti no deal, then you are experiencing a failure in empathy.

And why does it matter to you, you say you don't care who it is as long as they avoid no deal brexit. Surely that's the ethos you would want from your leader too?

Ok fine, so after what 3 years of accusing Labour of brinkmanship playing politics and criticising Corbyn for not being pragmatic about Brexit, you're now happy for the Lib Dems to engage in a massive game of brinkmanship to remove the current leader of the opposition rather than to be pragmatic and prevent no deal in order for them to get someone they're more 'comfortable' working with?

Talk about consistently inconsistent.

[redmark]

What about pro-Brexit Labour MPs? Are they all in the bag when it comes to a no confidence vote? It's not just Corbyn as PM they'll have to swallow but they'll know the intention of that particular VoNC is to at least delay Brexit. Will the likes of John Mann, who's a Brexiteer and a public critic of Labour's antisemitism problem abstain? What about Hoey, who doesn't have to worry about deselections and the like anymore? If her priority is Brexit, why wouldn't she vote with the government and help Johnson take us out on the 31st of October?

If any of those don't support the VoNC, again that's more Tory rebels you have to find to make up the difference.

Plus, there's the likes of Ian Austin and Kelvin Hopkins (still suspended, I believe) who are ex-Labour pro-Brexit independents.

Yeah, Hoey and upto about 8 others, I believe, will probably vote with Johnson. The bigger worry would be Kinnock's '30-50' who are dead set against a referendum. And if it's no clear, yes I agree - all numbers would be easier if Corbyn wasn't the prospective PM.

[redmark]

That's presumably one more Tory rebel you now have to find to help put Corbyn into power. Good luck.

https://twitter.com/ChrisLeslieMP/status/1161890301126074368

It's a stupid tweet and you know it is. There would be no hard left government in power, even if Corbyn was Lenin himself. They wouldn't be 'in power' to do anything but stop No Deal. There's no 'hard left' majority. What is it you think a PM can really do on his own without a Commons majority?

[Trada]

Makes me wonder if the reason Swinson is having problems is because of the ChangeUK people like Chucka that have joined, and they won't vote with Jeremy and seeing they now have built themselves out as the anti Brexit party it would look bad if there is a split in their voting to stop a no deal Brexit with Jeremy as temp leader.

That's a problem they have to sort out not Labour.

[ShakaHislop]

Makes me wonder if the reason Swinson is having problems is because of the ChangeUK people like Chucka that have joined, and they won't vote with Jeremy and seeing they now have built themselves out as the anti Brexit party it would look bad if there is a split in their voting to stop a no deal Brexit with Jeremy as temp leader.

That's a problem they have to sort out not Labour.

It's primarily because Corbyn is a twat, and a problem that the Labour Party has given to the country.

[redmark]

Makes me wonder if the reason Swinson is having problems is because of the ChangeUK people like Chucka that have joined, and they won't vote with Jeremy and seeing they now have built themselves out as the anti Brexit party it would look bad if there is a split in their voting to stop a no deal Brexit with Jeremy as temp leader.

That's a problem they have to sort out not Labour.

There's no complexity to it. Lib Dems want to avoid accusations of 'you put Corbyn into Number 10' on the doorstep. They also want to take some credit for being seen as the 'honest brokers' of a GNU led by somebody inoffensive and with cross party support - because their route to any sort of influence in a new parliament is in working with other parties. Similarly for Lucas, until she made a clumsy suggestion.

But those are party political motivations. No better or worse than Labour (as the official opposition) wanting to be seen as the only party that actually has the numbers to oppose a Tory Brexit, and therefore needs to be seen to be leading it.

[Trada]

It's primarily because Corbyn is a twat, and a problem that the Labour Party has given to the country.

Hmmm and people wonder why I don't respond to replies ............ The usual it's all Jeremys fault bullshit.

[ShakaHislop]

There's no complexity to it. Lib Dems want to avoid accusations of 'you put Corbyn into Number 10' on the doorstep. They also want to take some credit for being seen as the 'honest brokers' of a GNU led by somebody inoffensive and with cross party support - because their route to any sort of influence in a new parliament is in working with other parties. Similarly for Lucas, until she made a clumsy suggestion.

But those are party political motivations. No better or worse than Labour (as the official opposition) wanting to be seen as the only party that actually has the numbers to oppose a Tory Brexit, and therefore needs to be seen to be leading it.

It's not just that we want to avoid accusations of that; we genuinely don't want to do it and with very good reason.

[Zeb]

Agree with redmark on much of the practical implications of Corbyn being in power for a couple of months. In those terms, and there is definitely another case to be made for not even considering him for PM, more damaging is "Vote Lib Dem get Corbyn" and "Vote SNP get Corbyn" and "Vote PC get Corbyn" in the following election. Corbyn's asking parties to throw away gains in the next election to put him there just to obtain a stay of execution on 'no deal' when the next government in can just repeat this whole thing. Which may be to Corbyn's favour in re-polarising between Tories and Labour but didn't put him in power last time either.

----

This still seems the best route. If a majority can be found. If it can get through Parliament in time even with a majority in the Commons.

That leads on to a third possibility: namely, a hybrid of the first two. Such legislation might require, in the first instance, the Prime Minister to seek an extension. However, it might go on to provide that if no extension had been granted by a given date (e.g. 30 October), the Prime Minister would be legally obliged immediately to revoke the UK’s notification under Article 50. This sort of approach, with extension as the preferred option and revocation as a last-resort failsafe, would presumably be politically less unpalatable to some MPs than legislation that required revocation without more.

Sauce

[ShakaHislop]

Hmmm and people wonder why I don't respond to replies ............ The usual it's all Jeremys fault bullshit.

You don't respond to replies because unlike places like Twitter, you're not used to people challenging the shite you regurgitate from "sources" like Sqwawkbox and ToryFibs. You'd get even more stick if people didn't have sympathy for you for personal problems that are vaguely alluded to.

[Ghost Town]

This thread is really threatening to jump the shark

[ShakaHislop]

Hmmm and people wonder why I don't respond to replies ............ The usual it's all Jeremys fault bullshit.

Care to answer what would be wrong with Harman as the leader of a temporary government? Her merely not being Labour leader/leader of the opposition is not an acceptable answer.

[filopastry]

If you give it a few days I think you will clearly see the LibDem position morphing into reluctant support if he can make the numbers work, then asking that if he can't make the numbers work he should show the same flexibility in backing another candidate who can.

It helps that it is both true and the least damaging to them, as it gets in line with the Greens in putting more pressure on Corbyn to compromise if there isn't a majority for him to lead.

I actually think it is perfectly fair for Labour to get first dibs at forming a GNU, given the number of seats they have, just not convinced they can do it.

With the right leadership and full Labour support there is a majority for an anti no-deal GNU, I'm just not sure there is for anything beyond that.

[ShakaHislop]

If you give it a few days I think you will clearly see the LibDem position morphing into reluctant support if he can make the numbers work, then asking that if he can't make the numbers work he should show the same flexibility in backing another candidate who can.

It helps that it is both true and the least damaging to them, as it gets in line with the Greens in putting more pressure on Corbyn to compromise if there isn't a majority for him to lead.

I actually think it is perfectly fair for Labour to get first dibs at forming a GNU, given the number of seats they have, just not convinced they can do it.

With the right leadership and full Labour support there is a majority for an anti no-deal GNU, I'm just not sure there is for anything beyond that.

Even when Corbyn doesn't even have the confidence of most of those MPs who hold those seats?

[filopastry]

Even when Corbyn doesn't even have the confidence of most of those MPs who hold those seats?

He is still the leader of the party though.

I just wouldnt be wasting too many of the 14 days pursuing that approach if it became apparent that the numbers weren't there

[redmark]

Even when Corbyn doesn't even have the confidence of most of those MPs who hold those seats?

Labour has many more seats, is the official opposition, and he is the leader of the opposition. You may regret the former, and we may both regret the latter (though I'm not sure you do; whatever would you complain about then?), but those are the facts. Even discounting the PLP's lack of support for Corbyn, he still has more genuine supporters in the house than Swinson has MPs.

This shouldn't really be terribly complicated, but the timing has worked out beautifully for Johnson. Can Corbyn command a majority in the house? No? Anyone else? But with a recess and no action, the opposition are busy talking themselves into hardened, conflicting positions that will be difficult to step back from.

[TheShanklyGates]

Alex Wickham
‏Verified account @alexwickham

LibDem troubles...

Layla Moran not treading on Swinson’s toes today but told she is privately “much more on board” with a potential anti-no deal alliance with Corbyn and others

Allies say she is less tribal than Swinson and would deal with anyone opposing no deal...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1162000845656993793

Good to see that there are some Lib Dems who have their priorities in order...

[classycarra]

Ok fine, so after what 3 years of accusing Labour of brinkmanship playing politics and criticising Corbyn for not being pragmatic about Brexit, you're now happy for the Lib Dems to engage in a massive game of brinkmanship to remove the current leader of the opposition rather than to be pragmatic and prevent no deal in order for them to get someone they're more 'comfortable' working with?

Talk about consistently inconsistent.

Any time you try to get hypothetical you massively veer off base. You really struggle with it

You ignored the part of my message where I asked why you don't want a leader who shares your values. What's so wrong, from your perspective, with your party choosing someone more clearly and consistently anti no deal brexit to 'do a job' for the country (and rehabilitate Labour's image at the same time)? It's not about 'comfort' - and that's an irony from a current supporter of the labour leadership. It's about 'can we trust this person to do what he has promised'. I don't follow the Lib Dems but my guess is, as numerous people have said to you, they'd fall in line if it came down to it.

By the way the brinkmanship hasn't started yet, because Corbyn hasn't requested a vote of no confidence. Hopefully that changes first day back, but healthy scepticism going on his previous is understandable I'm sure

[ShakaHislop]

Labour has many more seats, is the official opposition, and he is the leader of the opposition. You may regret the former, and we may both regret the latter (though I'm not sure you do; whatever would you complain about then?), but those are the facts. Even discounting the PLP's lack of support for Corbyn, he still has more genuine supporters in the house than Swinson has MPs.

This shouldn't really be terribly complicated, but the timing has worked out beautifully for Johnson. Can Corbyn command a majority in the house? No? Anyone else? But with a recess and no action, the opposition are busy talking themselves into hardened, conflicting positions that will be difficult to step back from.

Is that the best you've got?

[ShakaHislop]

Alex Wickham
‏Verified account @alexwickham

LibDem troubles...

Layla Moran not treading on Swinson’s toes today but told she is privately “much more on board” with a potential anti-no deal alliance with Corbyn and others

Allies say she is less tribal than Swinson and would deal with anyone opposing no deal...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1162000845656993793

Good to see that there are some Lib Dems who have their priorities in order...

It's the Labour party's tribalness that is causing this problem.

[redmark]

Is that the best you've got?

I knew that bit would cause you to ignore the rest of the points. A pity, but confirms how you want to debate this.

It's the Labour party's tribalness that is causing this problem.

Labour is the opposition. It is seeking to form an alternative government. I'll absolutely argue for it to support a neutral candidate if that becomes necessary, but the Lib Dems are playing party politics here, too.