Topic: The largest stock market bubble ever seen is finally Ko'd by Covid-19

[conman]

It doesn't look sustainable and I think they're playing with fire. Once the inflation target has been reached, things could get really ugly. Then nobody will want to buy government bonds at 0%. I suspect the expectation will be 5-10% and if that's the bid no government will be able to service their debt anymore. And/Or governments can't borrow money, at least not the way it's supposed to happen. If we are to believe some of the people in the know, we have already crossed a few red lines in that regard. I'm sure you have heard/read about the Fed breaking their regulations.

And at this stage governments borrow even more and blame the virus. In reality the problems have existed for a long time.

Yep - agree with all that.

I'm trying my best to ensure as many people as possible can become aware of the perils we are facing & how we all need to learn to look after ourselves. The government & the banks are not here to help us prosper at all anymore. Holding money in savings for instance is a great way to lose their wealth at an ever increasing rate.

It's time to put our money in hard assets, well it has been for a while.

[Gnurglan]

Yep - agree with all that.

I'm trying my best to ensure as many people as possible can become aware of the perils we are facing & how we all need to learn to look after ourselves. The government & the banks are not here to help us prosper at all anymore. Holding money in savings for instance is a great way to lose their wealth at an ever increasing rate.

It's time to put our money in hard assets, well it has been for a while.

Yes, people should try and inform themselves. What surprises me is how there seems to be such an agreement among investors that we are taking a very dangerous path. There's no doubt there. Likewise there is no doubt among politicians or media networks either. Their opinion is essentially that this is the right path and we need to move quicker down it. We should add more debt to get out of a debt problem. Let's just say I wouldn't bet on the politicians.

[thaddeus]

Yep - agree with all that.

I'm trying my best to ensure as many people as possible can become aware of the perils we are facing & how we all need to learn to look after ourselves. The government & the banks are not here to help us prosper at all anymore. Holding money in savings for instance is a great way to lose their wealth at an ever increasing rate.

It's time to put our money in hard assets, well it has been for a while.

How do you think pension funds will fare?

[Gnurglan]

How do you think pension funds will fare?

Take a look at either of these two links

https://youtu.be/5OFaZcC0lRU
https://youtu.be/pkB5ugK0YDY

It's worth the time.

[filopastry]

How do you think pension funds will fare?

Depends what they are invested in!

I pretty choose my own funds and if nothing else have managed to avoid direct exposure to commercial property, but its pretty hard to find safe havens from stretched valuations at present, not likely to change as long as rates stay this low either.

[thaddeus]

Take a look at either of these two links

https://youtu.be/5OFaZcC0lRU
https://youtu.be/pkB5ugK0YDY

It's worth the time.

I've tried to console myself by saying "It's all about the USA, we'll be fine in the UK".  Wishful thinking no doubt.

Thanks for the links though.  My dad was an accountant and always laboured the point of saving via a pension and I've scrimped elsewhere to do so.  He's taking home a final salary pension so it looks like I might be a victim of his Ponzi scheme 

[conman]

The dollar has dropped 9% vs the Euro since April.

[Jiminy Cricket]

The dollar has dropped 9% vs the Euro since April.

Tell me about it. I've been holding dollars.

[No666]

It's time to put our money in hard assets, well it has been for a while.

What hard assets would you suggest? Property? Gold?

[conman]

Tell me about it. I've been holding dollars.

I am being paid in dollars..

Tbf.. The ECB (and BOE) will likely start printing at an unprecendented rate too, therefore bringing more balance between the currencies.
However, you're still losing value.

When we consider that companies are holding huge cash reservees (Hundreds of billions in the case of Amazon, Google, Apple, etc).. It's safe to say they will be converting lot of that cash into Stock, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin.. If they haven't began doing so already.

[Gnurglan]

Holding cash/dollar may not be so bad in the short term. First it was about companies not having cash to pay the bills. As a government you can add some money to save the day, but it's short term. Next comes the phase where the business is not back. Try and go to a bank asking for a loan when you are already in debt and your main source of income is gone. There is only so long you can stay afloat. Then you will try and sell off what you can and hope you avoid going bust. If that's where we are going next, then I suspect cash will be king.

If you are Apple however, you issue a new bond, have it bought by the Federal Reserve and then you just wait to buy up companies that have restricted or no access to cash.

[conman]

Holding cash/dollar may not be so bad in the short term. First it was about companies not having cash to pay the bills. As a government you can add some money to save the day, but it's short term. Next comes the phase where the business is not back. Try and go to a bank asking for a loan when you are already in debt and your main source of income is gone. There is only so long you can stay afloat. Then you will try and sell off what you can and hope you avoid going bust. If that's where we are going next, then I suspect cash will be king.

If you are Apple however, you issue a new bond, have it bought by the Federal Reserve and then you just wait to buy up companies that have restricted or no access to cash.

Bonds are paying very little back in return these days, so as much as they will likely do this - they will also find other ways to increase the value (as i said above).

Holding cash has been pretty poor for me though. I'm down 9% converting to Euro after just 3 months. But you're right about cashflow. Businesses with cash on their balances sheets will prosper as they can weather storms and re-invest to hold/increase value, businesses living on the margins are in for a very tough ride.

[conman]

A serious move here from Microstrategy. They see that the writing is on the wall for the dollar & have moved into Bitcoin to protect their cash reserves.
Fidelity, Greyscale and Microstrategy are setting the example for many other investors to follow.

MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor Explains His $425M Bet on BTC

As of press time, MicroStrategy has converted $425 million into bitcoin. The stock has surged 30% since its first bitcoin buy on Aug. 11. It was up 9% on Tuesday.

Other publicly traded tech firms – think Apple and Google – park billions of excess capital in cash and leave it there for years. But Saylor didn’t want to leave MicroStrategy’s millions in a bank account where the specter of inflation could slowly whittle it away.

“We just had the awful realization that we were sitting on top of a $500 million ice cube that’s melting,” Saylor said. MicroStrategy has settled on bitcoin as the treasury alternative.

“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge,” said Saylor. “This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”

https://www.coindesk.com/microstrategy-ceo-michael-saylor-bitcoin

[cdav]

I think there are serious questions to ask about what is happening on the stock market over the past year.

I think, similar to when bitcoin rocketed a few years ago, non-serious investors have piled into tech stocks chasing gains (think of the pushing of apps like trading212) and are about to be hammered by the big boys cashing in on them. Valuations are just not supported by any of their earnings- a lot of people are going to get burned in the correction

[conman]

I think there are serious questions to ask about what is happening on the stock market over the past year.

I think, similar to when bitcoin rocketed a few years ago, non-serious investors have piled into tech stocks chasing gains (think of the pushing of apps like trading212) and are about to be hammered by the big boys cashing in on them. Valuations are just not supported by any of their earnings- a lot of people are going to get burned in the correction

They most certainly are.

Hard assets like Bitcoin, precious metals, high end property & certain art will prevail during this time. Many tech companies too.

With regards to Microstrategy

They carefully bought thousands of small incognito algo orders over a period of weeks to accumulate 38,250bitcoin for a total price of $425M. BTC was essentially transferred from weak hands to strong hands (hodl): reducing future sell pressure. Thereby creating greater liquidity and stability to this mkt, as Microstrategy are in thie for the long game, essentially a hodlr (long term holder).

I advise listening to this podcast with Michael Saylor, which dropped last night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrR95PFYDFQ

[Gnurglan]

I think there are serious questions to ask about what is happening on the stock market over the past year.

I think, similar to when bitcoin rocketed a few years ago, non-serious investors have piled into tech stocks chasing gains (think of the pushing of apps like trading212) and are about to be hammered by the big boys cashing in on them. Valuations are just not supported by any of their earnings- a lot of people are going to get burned in the correction

It's crazy at a first look. This year alone we have seen lots of businesses close or suffer, millions are unemployed, there's the ever increasing debt levels and the stock market is up. Why? The easy explanation is it's been cheap to borrow, corporations have bought back their own shares and pices are up. All aided by central banks around the world. They have made sure to widen the wealth gap.

I think the reason money seek up the big tech companies may be driven by ’passive investment’. If I understand that right then index funds will need to buy from a certain index if money flows in. A lot of global index funds will then buy Apple, Microsoft, Alibaba, Google etc. Problem being if money starts flowing out of those funds.

There's another view. If we believe Armstrong then investors are parking money. They need to escape the government debt (bonds) because that market is more or less destroyed. So where to go for big money? The only market big enough is the stock market. He calls it a shift from public to private.

[conman]

totally agree Gnurglan,

There's also this pyramid to consider, which shows how newly minted money makes it way to banks, corporates, stock market, etc. It takes a long time for a little bit of it to trickle down to the people.



In other words, the Cantillon effect

[Gnurglan]

Haven't seen that before. That the people who get the new money first benefit the most is well-known.

But it's getting obvious now how it works in favor of the big corporations. Banks can, but won't loan to small businesses. Which makes sense, because if you have a restaurant and you can only get 50% of the revenue you got last year due to restrictions, your business model is bound to fail. It makes no sense to offer a loan. So small businesses are going down. People lose their jobs and need support to buy food. Big corporations have no problem to get easy access to new money. Interest free. This kind of development can't end well. This is when people take to the streets with the pitch forks.

[conman]

Haven't seen that before. That the people who get the new money first benefit the most is well-known.

But it's getting obvious now how it works in favor of the big corporations. Banks can, but won't loan to small businesses. Which makes sense, because if you have a restaurant and you can only get 50% of the revenue you got last year due to restrictions, your business model is bound to fail. It makes no sense to offer a loan. So small businesses are going down. People lose their jobs and need support to buy food. Big corporations have no problem to get easy access to new money. Interest free. This kind of development can't end well. This is when people take to the streets with the pitch forks.

Yea, the system is broken. I don't see any way back from here.

With regards to those loans to businesses which can only operate at 50% capacity or cannot even open at all, I wholeheartedly believe the governments should be paying them to keep them and their staff afloat, because they are closed due to government restrictions. However, that ultimately needs to get paid back sometime, somehow. Whilst we don't know when and how, we do know by whom and that's us.

This is why i feel it's so important for us as individuals to take it upon us to learn about how we can secure our own futures and try to make good choices in these difficult times.

[bradders1011]

Regarding bitcoin and more of an idle thought than an educated essay.

Two things occur to me that could lead to civil unrest and major upheaval with BTC:

1) A few thousand people in every country become super-wealthy almost overnight through something very few people understand or have the opportunity in which to participate.

2) It becomes a new reserve - the Bitcoin Standard - used purely by the super-wealthy who slice themselves off the top of the rest of the economy.

I'd be interested to be educated on whether I'm talking nonsense or not. Every day's a schoolday.

[Gnurglan]

Yea, the system is broken. I don't see any way back from here.

With regards to those loans to businesses which can only operate at 50% capacity or cannot even open at all, I wholeheartedly believe the governments should be paying them to keep them and their staff afloat, because they are closed due to government restrictions. However, that ultimately needs to get paid back sometime, somehow. Whilst we don't know when and how, we do know by whom and that's us.

This is why i feel it's so important for us as individuals to take it upon us to learn about how we can secure our own futures and try to make good choices in these difficult times.

Governments have installed the restrictions and therefore it makes sense to support businesses that suffer. I think that line of thought makes sense. The difficulty is governments can't just give money away to solve the problem. They may have crashed vital parts of the economy for years to come. It won't just be that restaurant that suffers, it will be the suppliers to it that suffer as well. And then it will be the owner of the building that hosted the restaurant. It can't be solved easily. This is like playing with fire.

[Gnurglan]

Regarding bitcoin and more of an idle thought than an educated essay.

Two things occur to me that could lead to civil unrest and major upheaval with BTC:

1) A few thousand people in every country become super-wealthy almost overnight through something very few people understand or have the opportunity in which to participate.

2) It becomes a new reserve - the Bitcoin Standard - used purely by the super-wealthy who slice themselves off the top of the rest of the economy.

I'd be interested to be educated on whether I'm talking nonsense or not. Every day's a schoolday.

My view is crypto will have its place eventually. Others will have far more knowledge about it. I recommend checking out Macrovoices or Realvision as a starting point.

My perspective is the idea with Bitcoin is similar to that of people who promote precious metals. Given what we have seen from governments this year (and for the past decade) there is a case for Bitcoin or precious metals as a much needed store of value. You have to decide for yourself if that is true. It's easy to get drawn in to the belief that Bitcoin is a great solution, but I am not convinced. There is a case for it, but I want to offer a simple counter-argument as well.

The case for is that governments are going broke and they devalue their currencies. What you need then is to find a safe haven where governments can't reach your money through for example taxes. You'll find unlimited information about why that is the reason to own Bitcoin or precious metals. They'll offer far better explanations too.

The case against is history tells us governments have the weapons and they can make it illegal to own whatever they like. In particular when they need money. FDR made it illegal to own gold for example. It can happen again. Think about what would happen if Bitcoin or gold was made illegal to own. It's easy to say either is safe and no-one can touch it, but let's change the laws and it's a different situation. Then in a way it's like owning a famous, stolen Picasso painting. It's worth a lot, but you can't trade it. Any attempt to do so may put you in jail, with your safe haven being taken from you. So you'll sit there with it.

Eventually we can expect governments to release their own cryptocurrency. If we go back to FDR, what happened? He was willing to buy the gold for ~$20 from people. Then it was illegal to own gold. Next he made it legal to own gold again and you could buy it back for $35. Now think gold=Bitcoin and you trade it for the government's cryptocurrency...

[conman]

Governments have installed the restrictions and therefore it makes sense to support businesses that suffer. I think that line of thought makes sense. The difficulty is governments can't just give money away to solve the problem. They may have crashed vital parts of the economy for years to come. It won't just be that restaurant that suffers, it will be the suppliers to it that suffer as well. And then it will be the owner of the building that hosted the restaurant. It can't be solved easily. This is like playing with fire.

Indeed.

It's a pickle alright.

[conman]

My view is crypto will have its place eventually. Others will have far more knowledge about it. I recommend checking out Macrovoices or Realvision as a starting point.

This recent interview on Real Vision is stunning.

https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos/the-deliberate-corporate-strategy-to-adopt-the-bitcoin-standard

The case against is history tells us governments have the weapons and they can make it illegal to own whatever they like. In particular when they need money. FDR made it illegal to own gold for example. It can happen again. Think about what would happen if Bitcoin or gold was made illegal to own. It's easy to say either is safe and no-one can touch it, but let's change the laws and it's a different situation. Then in a way it's like owning a famous, stolen Picasso painting. It's worth a lot, but you can't trade it. Any attempt to do so may put you in jail, with your safe haven being taken from you. So you'll sit there with it.

Bitcoin is unconfiscatable. Even though Bitcoin is not a currency that champions privacy, there are workarounds to hide your Bitcoins. So people will have the means to workaround potential government interventions, unlike Gold for example. It's been suggested that it's not something that's on the macro radar and won't be until it breaches +$250,000 per coin.

Eventually we can expect governments to release their own cryptocurrency. If we go back to FDR, what happened? He was willing to buy the gold for ~$20 from people. Then it was illegal to own gold. Next he made it legal to own gold again and you could buy it back for $35. Now think gold=Bitcoin and you trade it for the government's cryptocurrency...

History has set the precedent that we should never trust governments and their money. Politicians always want a way to bail themselves out of problems. Printing more money is their primary pressure release valve. So, a government cryptocurrency will likely be the same as it is now, just tokenised. Most Cryptocurrencies are the same, Bitcoin is different.

Anyway, time to watch the match.

[Gnurglan]

This recent interview on Real Vision is stunning.

https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos/the-deliberate-corporate-strategy-to-adopt-the-bitcoin-standard

Bitcoin is unconfiscatable. Even though Bitcoin is not a currency that champions privacy, there are workarounds to hide your Bitcoins. So people will have the means to workaround potential government interventions, unlike Gold for example. It's been suggested that it's not something that's on the macro radar and won't be until it breaches +$250,000 per coin.


History has set the precedent that we should never trust governments and their money. Politicians always want a way to bail themselves out of problems. Printing more money is their primary pressure release valve. So, a government cryptocurrency will likely be the same as it is now, just tokenised. Most Cryptocurrencies are the same, Bitcoin is different.

Anyway, time to watch the match.

You know more about it than I do. My view is basic: for it to have value you need to be able to use it.

Governments will demand to be in control of the national currency. That's something a country or the EU or the world will not surrender easily. When governments end up under pressure they will do anything. My country has changed religion to get out of debt (so churches could he robbed) and we have said Cu is worth as much as Ag to be able to fund war. This is what FDR did:

”... he issued Presidential Proclamation 2039 that forbade the hoarding 'of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency', under penalty of $10,000 and/or up to five to ten years imprisonment."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

If we just repeat that - how willing would people be to keep Bitcoin if they risked 5-10 years in jail? Right now there is no risk. But if people began to transact in Bitcoin on a big scale it would become a tax revenue problem. That's when governments would get creative. And it's quite easy to build a PR case against it. You play on criminal activity prefering to use it, rich people escaping taxes, plus the massive use of electricity as an environmental issue. And then you offer people a time period when it's free to convert to the nationally accepted (crypto)currency before heavy punishment is installed for every transaction. If you are a shop owner or a corporation you wouldn't dare touching it. Nor would investors.

[conman]

I've been meaning to reply, but just can't get the time to.. I will...

The interview between Raoul & Jeff Booth last night was really enlightening btw. it's a must watch. I cannot get the analogy out of my head that "we're frogs in a boiling pot".. It's so true.

I have Jeffs book here and have begun reading it too, it's called the price of tomorrow and its about deflation driven by technology.

[Gnurglan]

I've been meaning to reply, but just can't get the time to.. I will...

The interview between Raoul & Jeff Booth last night was really enlightening btw. it's a must watch. I cannot get the analogy out of my head that "we're frogs in a boiling pot".. It's so true.

I have Jeffs book here and have begun reading it too, it's called the price of tomorrow and its about deflation driven by technology.

Frogs in a boiling pot... I suspect that's accurate and the same with Pal’s view that we are in what he calls the hope phase. It makes sense to think the rapid improvement in technology has been deflationary. It's the same phenomena as the 1920s. My concern is it will lead to stagflation. Everything is slowing down everywhere because of the virus. That's the stagnation. Everyone targets inflation because it's the only way to solve the debt problem. The combination is really ugly. So far we haven’t seen much of it, so we think we'll be OK.

[conman]

Frogs in a boiling pot... I suspect that's accurate and the same with Pal’s view that we are in what he calls the hope phase. It makes sense to think the rapid improvement in technology has been deflationary. It's the same phenomena as the 1920s. My concern is it will lead to stagflation. Everything is slowing down everywhere because of the virus. That's the stagnation. Everyone targets inflation because it's the only way to solve the debt problem. The combination is really ugly. So far we haven’t seen much of it, so we think we'll be OK.

oh, he's not talking about a rapid improvement in technology per se, not that i recall anyway. He just says that technology is deflationary.

[Gnurglan]

oh, he's not talking about a rapid improvement in technology per se, not that i recall anyway. He just says that technology is deflationary.

Technology is deflationary. The rapid part was my view. And rapid is a slightly longer term thing, just like it was in the early 1900s when fewer and fewer needed to be farmers. It took time. What I mean is the development we have seen since the early 1990s. Everyone now has a mobile phone sharper than a great computer from the 1990s. And it's way cheaper too. With less and less people required to produce it.

[conman]

Indeed.


Have you seen this? It's doing the rounds on twitter today, and i finally got the time to read it (at 11.30pm!)

https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1313292747219009536

[Gnurglan]

No, haven't seen it before. But it's to be expected that there are arrangements like that. The way governments are throwing money around, plus the larger wealth gap make people want to go after the rich. They of course want to protect their wealth so they come up with ways to do it. I understand it, but it stings.

Have you followed this discussion on QE?
https://youtu.be/h_HCIyc6MaA

Basically they believe QE is not adding money to the system, it's doing the opposite. Worth a watch.

[conman]

No, haven't seen it before. But it's to be expected that there are arrangements like that. The way governments are throwing money around, plus the larger wealth gap make people want to go after the rich. They of course want to protect their wealth so they come up with ways to do it. I understand it, but it stings.

Have you followed this discussion on QE?
https://youtu.be/h_HCIyc6MaA

Basically they believe QE is not adding money to the system, it's doing the opposite. Worth a watch.

I partially got to watch it, yea..
You'd think i'd have more time to watch these vids, right!

[Gnurglan]

I partially got to watch it, yea..
You'd think i'd have more time to watch these vids, right!

Yes, I thought so.
Gammon did a summary of it and the opposing view as well. Really interesting. What's your take on the Johnson video?

[conman]

Yes, I thought so.
Gammon did a summary of it and the opposing view as well. Really interesting. What's your take on the Johnson video?

On the dollar milkshake theory?

It seems feasible, but i don't know enough about the dollar, eurodollar, etc to really comment.

[conman]

As I've been saying for a few years now... 2021 will be the year of the next ATH for Bitcoin...

Last night the value of one Bitcoin reached $16,000, that's a 50% increase over the last 4 weeks alone, and over 108% since the start of the year.

Bitcoin YTD  +108%

NDX  +38%
Gold  +27%
Silver  +39%
US Banks -31%
EU Banks -39%
Dollar +1.6%
Copper +11%
TLT +26%

Why is this?

It's due to the nature of supply/demand & Bitcoin's inbuilt viral loop (halving of the block reward). Parabolic runs occur after halvings (every 4 years). The halvings cut the supply in half and when the supply is cut in half and demand remains constant, the price should go up. This is basic economics, yet the price didn't jump up after the halving event in may as many expected.

This is because the supply & demand dynamics post halving is immediately felt by the miners immediately, but it doesn't reach the market until the surplus supply of Bitcoin runs out. The surplus is mostly being sold by miners and by people who need to sell to cover their costs.

Coins therefore get transferred from weak hands to strong hands that understand Bitcoin and don't have an immediate need to sell. After weak hands sell out, price MUST adjust to the new equilibrium.

Eventually no more bitcoin will be available for sale at $10k, only $100k, then $500k, etc.



The halving is about the block reward decreasing. The block reward is a flow. By definition, a flow requires TIME.

Take a look at a theorethical order book visualization of the path to $500k+. It shows how this dynamic should play out.



The next chart shows the actual decrease of Bitcoin on all exchanges since May. As i said, it takes time for the surplus supply to be bought up. You can see the Bitcoin price gradually rise as the supply continues to fall.



Right now... There is virtually no BTC left for sale. The only Bitcoin that is being sold now, is the newly minted Bitcoin being sold by the miners who have to pay their costs. This is why we are witnessing a 50% surge this month.



We're not done yet.. When you consider what's going on in the macro world and the fiduciary duty that publically traded companies have to their shareholders, there is going to be an institutional rush to buy Bitcoin to protect shareholder value in the face of rapidly increasing inflation.

There are already a few institutional players in the market.

Grayscale bought 16,000 Bitcoin last week. Yet miners only created 6,300. This brings their total BTC to ~500,000 coins
Microstrategy bought 37,000 BTC over the summer
Pre-halving, CashApp was buying 20% of all newly-issued BTC.  Now it’s ~40%.
They also placed $50 million of Bitcoin on their balance sheets last month, which Jack Dorsey said was just the beginning.

Mastercard, Visa and Paypall are all now enabling Bitcoin purchases.
JP Morgan has been secretely buying for years and now they are writing reports lauding the inherit value of Bitcoin.

The buying wall won't remain constant, it will increase - the more it increases - the more awareness it creates - the more awareness it creates - the more people want to buy.


Just keeping you guys in the loop.

[conman]

Update:

Square is selling double the Bitcoin that is made.

...and now Paypal is doing the same.

Paypal is almost 3X Square. We already know Grayscale is consuming a similar magnitude.

This is a Bitcoin supply crisis. 




https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1324665302584623104

[LiamG]

As I've been saying for a few years now... 2021 will be the year of the next ATH for Bitcoin...

Last night the value of one Bitcoin reached $16,000, that's a 50% increase over the last 4 weeks alone, and over 108% since the start of the year.

Bitcoin YTD  +108%

NDX  +38%
Gold  +27%
Silver  +39%
US Banks -31%
EU Banks -39%
Dollar +1.6%
Copper +11%
TLT +26%

Why is this?

It's due to the nature of supply/demand & Bitcoin's inbuilt viral loop (halving of the block reward). Parabolic runs occur after halvings (every 4 years). The halvings cut the supply in half and when the supply is cut in half and demand remains constant, the price should go up. This is basic economics, yet the price didn't jump up after the halving event in may as many expected.

This is because the supply & demand dynamics post halving is immediately felt by the miners immediately, but it doesn't reach the market until the surplus supply of Bitcoin runs out. The surplus is mostly being sold by miners and by people who need to sell to cover their costs.

Coins therefore get transferred from weak hands to strong hands that understand Bitcoin and don't have an immediate need to sell. After weak hands sell out, price MUST adjust to the new equilibrium.

Eventually no more bitcoin will be available for sale at $10k, only $100k, then $500k, etc.



The halving is about the block reward decreasing. The block reward is a flow. By definition, a flow requires TIME.

Take a look at a theorethical order book visualization of the path to $500k+. It shows how this dynamic should play out.



The next chart shows the actual decrease of Bitcoin on all exchanges since May. As i said, it takes time for the surplus supply to be bought up. You can see the Bitcoin price gradually rise as the supply continues to fall.



Right now... There is virtually no BTC left for sale. The only Bitcoin that is being sold now, is the newly minted Bitcoin being sold by the miners who have to pay their costs. This is why we are witnessing a 50% surge this month.



We're not done yet.. When you consider what's going on in the macro world and the fiduciary duty that publically traded companies have to their shareholders, there is going to be an institutional rush to buy Bitcoin to protect shareholder value in the face of rapidly increasing inflation.

There are already a few institutional players in the market.

Grayscale bought 16,000 Bitcoin last week. Yet miners only created 6,300. This brings their total BTC to ~500,000 coins
Microstrategy bought 37,000 BTC over the summer
Pre-halving, CashApp was buying 20% of all newly-issued BTC.  Now it’s ~40%.
They also placed $50 million of Bitcoin on their balance sheets last month, which Jack Dorsey said was just the beginning.

Mastercard, Visa and Paypall are all now enabling Bitcoin purchases.
JP Morgan has been secretely buying for years and now they are writing reports lauding the inherit value of Bitcoin.

The buying wall won't remain constant, it will increase - the more it increases - the more awareness it creates - the more awareness it creates - the more people want to buy.


Just keeping you guys in the loop.

i have no idea what any of that means although i do have a very very small amount of bitcoins, think they worth about £12 hahaha

[conman]

i have no idea what any of that means although i do have a very very small amount of bitcoins, think they worth about £12 hahaha

They might be worth #24 by xmas then

[conman]

You need to rein in this talk lest you get the thread closed young man 

I actually sold some currency (also Lite and Ether) a little while back; resisted the urge to sell everything which may prove a good decision. You don't really think BTC will double by Christmas, do you? 

It was a more tongue n cheek comment to be honest.

But to answer your question. It has a chance. Im fairly sure it will break the all time high price in a matter of weeks, if not days because of the scarcity factor.

[jamieredders]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54959414

Bring on the vaccine!