Il Lombardia. The Race of the Falling Leaves.
The last and probably my favourite Monument in the calendar.
The race this year is 247 km's long and features numerous iconic climbs, some with the fiercest gradients which will suit the best climbers and puncheurs. A very selective route with six climbs and 4,000 meters of vertical elevation.
The first climb of the day, the Colle Gallo. This is 7.4 km with an average gradient of 6%. The riders then reach the slopes of the Colle Brianza, 7.7 km with an average of 3%.
I think the race proper will start at the 178 km point as riders reach the slopes of the spiritual climb of the Madonna del Ghisallo.In the past I've written of why this is an important place in cycling history, so you all know now know why...si? This is 8.5 km with an average of 6.2% and maximum gradient of 14%. from here the next ascent is of the Colma di Sormano, 5.1 km at an average of 6.6%) before the gut wrenching Muro di Sormano. This is an horrendous Muro. At only 1.9 km long the Muro di Sormano, with an average gradient of 15.8% and maximum gradient 27% will be a very selective point in the race.
This one of those climbs that we all wish to visit, I shall this weekend. After debuting in the Tour of Lombardy in the sixties, the climb was ignored for decades before it made a glorious come-back in 12. Since then the Muro has featured in Il Lombardia in 13 and 15.
And then onto the punchy climb of the Civiglio at 4.1 km long with an average of 10%, leading onto the San Fermo della Battaglia, a 2.7 km climb with an average of 7.2% it's up to 10% in places.
I think that whoever it is that crests this final climb with only 5.4 km downhill to the finish line will need to be alone if they want to win off here.
This is another of those days of attrition, only the strong will survive to fight out the win!
The forecast is set very fair for today with a top temperature of 20°C and some sunshine.
Streams from here at 13.00 UK.
https://www.procyclinglive.com/video/#
When the race was played out on the same course in 2015 I said Nibali would emerge the winner, he duly obliged. An attack from 16 km out on the penultimate climb, Civiglo, a climb and descent that saw him solo to the line, ahead of Moreno and Pinot....I think the same this year, Nibali to win as he has looked really strong in the Autumn Classics.
Having seen how well Uran did at Milano - Turino he must be the other main favourite here.
I expect to see Sunweb putting their push behind Oomen, even though I do think we'll see
Dumoulin showing well here as he attempts to win his first one-day race. while both Aru and Alaphilippe look to be in great form right now, and both have great support for this race, I think it'll be a podium for these two and not the win they desire.
Sky have several cards to play today; Kwiatkowski will be their main rider here, and with anyone of Landa, Poels, Rosa and Henao as wild cards and there's also
Moscon. (
racist c*nt)
Of the others...I think we'll end up with a very select group of riders in the final km's today.....Martin will want to sign off from his team with another win here, Alaphilippe is the main rider here tho.. Can Geniez show Again..with the support of Bakelants, Pozzovivo and Latour I think he can...Latour in particular should make an early move in support of the team leader.
Yates was strong at M-T and will feature, for sure. Pinot comes here with one thing in mind, a win....he might just do so. Wellens will be in the mix, as we've seen previously here losing out in a sprint for 3rd the year Martin escaped, he finished behind Valverde and Costa...and so to will be Ulissi, along with Atapuma and Costa, these will form a strong three-pronged attack from UAE. Cummings, Quintana, Visconti, Miguel Angel Lopez, Barguil, Mollema and I expect to see another good ride from Bernal....this will be one of the last times I get to enjoy this super talented rider. BMC....no one of note...Hermans might surprise...Roche, no! Zakarin? Dependent upon how he is, I suppose.
Having seen all of the Italian Autumn Classics I think any of the riders above could take the win here...I'm thinking of all the above that once again there's a stand out name....and that is Nibali.
