Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[oldfordie]

Totally disagree, in fact the possible end of the Eurozone if not the whole EU is one of the things that makes Brexit slightly paletable to me because even if we stay in I think it's got a very limited lifespan. The economic problems of 2008 still remain, huge trade imbalances still exist (I saw a map of the world with each country coloured the flag of where most of its imports come from and there was a lot of Red, Yellow and Gold all over Europe), the refugee chrisis, rising nationalism, budget deficits, Greece, the Italian banking system, seriously the threats to the EU's long term existence are literally everywhere and will eventually get too big for Germany to carry alone.

Nobody is saying the EU will be better off with us gone, the EU make no secret about wanting us to stay but if the situation was so drastic for Germany then you would think the rhetoric would have been far different the last few months, they would have dragged us round the table and tried to negotiate a settlement. they sat back and laughed and told us were the ones living in a dream world.
The EU will adapt and change.

[west_london_red]

Nobody is saying the EU will be better off with us gone, the EU make no secret about wanting us to stay but if the situation was so drastic for Germany then you would think the rhetoric would have been far different the last few months, they would have dragged us round the table and tried to negotiate a settlement. they sat back and laughed and told us were the ones living in a dream world.
The EU will adapt and change.

They are two separate things. Brexit weakens the EU, and makes its collapse slightly more likely but the real threats to the EU are not related to Brexit and whether it lasts or not won't be related to the UK, we were never involved enough for that to happen.

[oldfordie]

They are two separate things. Brexit weakens the EU, and makes its collapse slightly more likely but the real threats to the EU are not related to Brexit and whether it lasts or not won't be related to the UK, we were never involved enough for that to happen.

Then with respect I don't see how it's relevant to this thread. your arguing the EU will collapse whether we are in or out of the EU.

[Yorkykopite]

Reading Tusk's comments, perhaps it's true - as Varoufakis recently observed - (don't think he was the first, though) the EU really is like The Hotel California: you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave. He's also been arguing, for anybody who has been listening, pretty much since the Eurozone crisis began, that the task of the European left is to save European capitalism from European capitalists and, by extension, European democracy with it. The authoritarian moves in Poland and Hungary, the rise of Ukip and the FN in France, the Freedom Party in Austria etc, makes it feel at times like we're heading towards a nasty round of xenophobic, right wing authoritarianism populism across the continent.

The EU's task in the near future might be to preserve democracy in Europe from the 'flow' it is currently following. How it goes about it, as it's currently constituted, is another question all together.

I agree 100 per cent. Make that the proverbial 110.

[G1 Jockey 4(betfair)]

They are two separate things. Brexit weakens the EU, and makes its collapse slightly more likely but the real threats to the EU are not related to Brexit and whether it lasts or not won't be related to the UK, we were never involved enough for that to happen.

it weakens it to the point where tarrifs and exporting to us make it harder......but the pain is split

france export 10% of their exports to us....germany 8-9%.
the rest less.

we export 44-47% of our exports to the eu.

investment will fall here...some companies will move tot he eu based on trade within the eu.

way i see it is we are hurt more than the eu....a lot more.

they may lose a fraction on tarrifs but they will gain some back on investment.

they are also not at a high point where as we are....they are slowly and sensibly coming out of the crisis.

we dipped our toes in but never suffered anywhere near as much as some of the eu did.

there is way more downside to our fall than theirs.

[oldfordie]

This must be one of the most shocking statements ive  ever heard from any senior politician. he is one dangerous man who should not be allowed to hold power with views like this.

Businesses that speak out for Britain's EU membership will be punished, vows John Redwood

 Mr Redwood, one the most senior Tory Eurosceptics, said companies who did not stay silent on the country's EU membership would pay a "very dear economic and financial price".
Chief executives who decide to take a corporate position on the issue could lose their jobs while those campaigning against membership would ensure there were financial consequences, Mr Redwood warned.
The former Welsh secretary demanded firms "keep out" of the debate and "beware" not to "meddle in politics".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11127836/Businesses-that-speak-out-for-Britains-EU-membership-will-be-punished-vows-John-Redwood.html

[TepidT2O]

What a ridiculous argument.


They are businesses, they're not allowed to say what they think is bad for them?  Utterly absurd.

Redwood is a very very clever man.  But he is so blinded by his bitter selfishness and right wing ideology that he is utterly ridiculous. 
He's an unpleasant and untrustworthy man who has been promoted well beyond his talents.

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

Or in other words, John Redwood is a massive c*nt

[oldfordie]

Or in other words, John Redwood is a massive c*nt

He is one dangerous c...
Labour should bring this up at every possible opportunity till election day.
Any dissent to the Tory government will be crushed.

[killer-heels]

Thats an old article isnt it? Also John Redwood is one of those drunk, rambling idiots that no one takes seriously.

[oldfordie]

Thats an old article isnt it? Also John Redwood is one of those drunk, rambling idiots that no one takes seriously.

Your right, I hadn't noticed to be honest,it's something ive never heard before and am surprised it didn't get more press.

[SP]

Redwood is a rabid loon. If any one takes him seriously then we really are fucked.

[killer-heels]

You might think that, but there's nothing in voter polling to indicate any meaningful change in the voting intentions.Sure. Quoting this for the LOLZ, elmo  See above. Polling data suggests otherwise.That's an old piece, but it has a resonance post-Brexit that would be a far more interesting line of argument than trotting out the promise of another referendum. As you say, it's conference season, so she needs to throw something to the activists, but the SNP have really spent the last two years whining about Westminster. They should have been concentrating on addressing the issues that turned off No voters, and in doing so they could have begun making Westminster irrelevant - it's the only way they could hope to persuade an overall majority of Scots voter to vote for independence.

I read that when the referendum was called, the yes for independence was at 27%. As has been mentioned by plenty of commentators, they are starting from a much higher base this time. The economic evidence may be against them, but the crucial emotive issue for independence is stronger than ever.

I hope they take their opportunity this time.

[west_london_red]

Yes, businessmen should stay out of politics... unless they are donating money to the Tory party in which case it's A O.K!

Fucking bastard party full of absolute fucking scum of the earth people. Seriously it's things like this that just reinforce what a utter bunch of c*nts they really are.

[TepidT2O]

Redwood is a rabid loon. If any one takes him seriously then we really are fucked.

Anyone who wants to know what he's really like should google the letters by his exwife to the local paper (Wokingham times?)

The destruction of his personality, the exposure of his lies about his charity work we're a joy to behold.

[killer-heels]

Redwood is probably someone who would probably forge a signature and submit Article 50 tomorrow.

[Dr. Beaker]

Polls are now apparently showing that most people want a soft Brexit. Good luck with that one Theresa.

[killer-heels]

Polls are now apparently showing that most people want a soft Brexit. Good luck with that one Theresa.

Thats fluctuated but what is clear is that the public want it all. All the polls have shown a want to keep current trading/living arrangements AND control immigration. As Boris said, have your cake and eat it.

I know its hard to imagine now but as loads of people have said, the Tories are onto a slippery slope no matter what happens. No matter how right wing they have gone, people wont contemplate a completely fucked up economy.

On top of that, they have made big infrastructure claims and have a independence question to answer.

[kennedy81]

Polls are now apparently showing that most people want a soft Brexit. Good luck with that one Theresa.

It's a bit like wanting to be thrown out of a plane at 100 feet rather than 1000 feet.

[Illmatic]

I read that when the referendum was called, the yes for independence was at 27%. As has been mentioned by plenty of commentators, they are starting from a much higher base this time. The economic evidence may be against them, but the crucial emotive issue for independence is stronger than ever.

I hope they take their opportunity this time.

In the current economic climate Independence wouldn't really represent much of an opportunity for Scotland i'm afraid. Scotland get an extremely good deal out of being inside of the UK notwithstanding the UK's vote to leave the EU. Scotland's export's far more to the rest of the UK than it does to the EU, their budget deficit is currently 10% of GDP this would need to brought down to 3% for Scotland to meet the EUs entry requirements and would require the most savage cuts which the electorate north of the border will not tolerate.

No sound economic basis exits for an independent Scotland; just as no sound economic basis exists for the UK exciting the EU so I find somewhat surprising that someone so opposed to the UK leaving the EU would support Scottish independence. As your essentially wishing financial hardship on our Scottish friends.         

[killer-heels]

In the current economic climate Independence wouldn't really represent much of an opportunity for Scotland i'm afraid. Scotland get an extremely good deal out of being inside of the UK notwithstanding the UK's vote to leave the EU. Scotland's export's far more to the rest of the UK than it does to the EU, their budget deficit is currently 10% of GDP this would need to brought down to 3% for Scotland to meet the EUs entry requirements and would require the most savage cuts which the electorate north of the border will not tolerate.

No sound economic basis exits for an independent Scotland; just as no sound economic basis exists for the UK exciting the EU so I find somewhat surprising that someone so opposed to the UK leaving the EU would support Scottish independence. As your essentially wishing financial hardship on our Scottish friends.         

Will see how the next few years pan out. I dont think EU's flirting with Scotland is genuine but if it is and they somehow let Scotland in then I may very well move there, if thats at all possible.

[west_london_red]

In the current economic climate Independence wouldn't really represent much of an opportunity for Scotland i'm afraid. Scotland get an extremely good deal out of being inside of the UK notwithstanding the UK's vote to leave the EU. Scotland's export's far more to the rest of the UK than it does to the EU, their budget deficit is currently 10% of GDP this would need to brought down to 3% for Scotland to meet the EUs entry requirements and would require the most savage cuts which the electorate north of the border will not tolerate.

No sound economic basis exits for an independent Scotland; just as no sound economic basis exists for the UK exciting the EU so I find somewhat surprising that someone so opposed to the UK leaving the EU would support Scottish independence. As your essentially wishing financial hardship on our Scottish friends.         

Exactly, for all their posturing the SNP are like UKIP in many ways, fixated on leaving that all sane arguments go out of the window and every problem in their respective countries will somehow be remedied by leaving their respective scapegoats and equal levels of denial be that the SNP and 'we'll leave the UK but carry on using the Pound' and the old stance of the Brexiteers that we would leave the EU but stay in the single market without freedom of movement. Neither statements were true, but both repeated again and again by their respective supporters.

[TravisBickle]

Exactly, for all their posturing the SNP are like UKIP in many ways, fixated on leaving that all sane arguments go out of the window and every problem in their respective countries will somehow be remedied by leaving their respective scapegoats and equal levels of denial be that the SNP and 'we'll leave the UK but carry on using the Pound' and the old stance of the Brexiteers that we would leave the EU but stay in the single market without freedom of movement. Neither statements were true, but both repeated again and again by their respective supporters.

 UKIP and the SNP are peas in a pod. Most SNP supporters would be appalled at that claim and I understand why but at their respective cores, the parties are the same. Both their campaigns rely on pie in the sky 'plans', both are built on hatred of 'the establishment' (even though success for them simply bolsters a different establishment) and both have some serious xenophobia running through their core. I'm not arsed what anyone says, a serious amount of anti-English sentiment fuels the independence movement.

 Luckily Scots had the good sense to reject the utter nonsense being sold to them by Salmond and Sturgeon. In fact, they had the good sense to reject the bollocks being sold by Frottage and Johnson as well... Shame about what happened this side of the border.

[Elmo!]

UKIP and the SNP are peas in a pod. Most SNP supporters would be appalled at that claim and I understand why but at their respective cores, the parties are the same. Both their campaigns rely on pie in the sky 'plans', both are built on hatred of 'the establishment' (even though success for them simply bolsters a different establishment) and both have some serious xenophobia running through their core. I'm not arsed what anyone says, a serious amount of anti-English sentiment fuels the independence movement.

 Luckily Scots had the good sense to reject the utter nonsense being sold to them by Salmond and Sturgeon. In fact, they had the good sense to reject the bollocks being sold by Frottage and Johnson as well... Shame about what happened this side of the border.

I see this argument made all the time and I always ask for some evidence or some examples and guess what? I never get an answer.  But you know, you're not arsed what anyone says.  You are just plain wrong, I would not support a camapaign that had 'serious xenophobia running through it's core'. I would denounce it, but I live up here, and spend a lot of time discussing and arguing the subject with people, in person and online. There are obviously a small minority of idiots, just like there are on the other side (go and have a look at the comments on a Daily Mail/Express/Guido Faawkes article about the SNP).

What evidence do you base your opinion on? Has your opinion been formed on the rational assessment of the evidence or is it based on your perception of what you think a 'nationalist' campaign should be?

[Mr Dilkington]

UKIP and the SNP are peas in a pod. Most SNP supporters would be appalled at that claim and I understand why but at their respective cores, the parties are the same. Both their campaigns rely on pie in the sky 'plans', both are built on hatred of 'the establishment' (even though success for them simply bolsters a different establishment) and both have some serious xenophobia running through their core. I'm not arsed what anyone says, a serious amount of anti-English sentiment fuels the independence movement.

 Luckily Scots had the good sense to reject the utter nonsense being sold to them by Salmond and Sturgeon. In fact, they had the good sense to reject the bollocks being sold by Frottage and Johnson as well... Shame about what happened this side of the border.

Absolute bollocks this.

[Red-Soldier]

UKIP and the SNP are peas in a pod. Most SNP supporters would be appalled at that claim and I understand why but at their respective cores, the parties are the same. Both their campaigns rely on pie in the sky 'plans', both are built on hatred of 'the establishment' (even though success for them simply bolsters a different establishment) and both have some serious xenophobia running through their core. I'm not arsed what anyone says, a serious amount of anti-English sentiment fuels the independence movement.

 Luckily Scots had the good sense to reject the utter nonsense being sold to them by Salmond and Sturgeon. In fact, they had the good sense to reject the bollocks being sold by Frottage and Johnson as well... Shame about what happened this side of the border.

That's quite a lot of bollocks right there.

[Redman0151]

Vote leave co-ordinator in Guildford starting a petition to make it illegal to support the EU under grounds of treason

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/168882

Yeah..

[Yorkykopite]

Vote leave co-ordinator in Guildford starting a petition to make it illegal to support the EU under grounds of treason

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/168882

Yeah..

He's a Tory councillor too (not even UKIP).

[oldfordie]

Vote leave co-ordinator in Guildford starting a petition to make it illegal to support the EU under grounds of treason

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/168882

Yeah..

He should be kicked out at the next election on the grounds of being a nutter.

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

Vote leave co-ordinator in Guildford starting a petition to make it illegal to support the EU under grounds of treason

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/168882

Yeah..

Fucking idiot him.

[killer-heels]

So with tariffs likely to slapped on German cars, ideal to hold onto your German car if you have one for the time being?

[TravisBickle]

That's quite a lot of bollocks right there.

 "Peas in a pod" was too far, actually. The SNP isn't as bad as UKIP but I definitely stand by the claim they have some striking similarities.

[Yorkykopite]

"Peas in a pod" was too far, actually. The SNP isn't as bad as UKIP but I definitely stand by the claim they have some striking similarities.

UKIP are nastier by far mate. There are some vicious nationalists in Scotland and it's obvious that some have attached themselves to the SNP but the organisation is clearly not riddled with them in the way that UKIP is. Similarly their leader may be something of a monomaniac but she's a civilised woman and has nothing in common with the thugs and loons who make up the leadership of UKIP.

[SP]

The SNP are a broad church of nationalism. UKIP contains those obsessed enough to think that the Tories are too soft. The SNP supporting loons are counterbalanced by a more rational moderate majority. In UKIP the crazy is counter-balanced by the even crazier.

[west_london_red]

So with tariffs likely to slapped on German cars, ideal to hold onto your German car if you have one for the time being?

But might be costlier to maintain as parts probably comes from abroad?

[richiedouglas]

But might be costlier to maintain as parts probably comes from abroad?

Wont it be tarrifs on every car bar those few that are made here? And they'll have foreign parts

[west_london_red]

Wont it be tarrifs on every car bar those few that are made here? And they'll have foreign parts

True - this could be very complicated!

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Football Manager has included Hard and Soft Brexit options..

[Red-Soldier]

Football Manager has included Hard and Soft Brexit options..

That's really gonna screw with the EU national rule!!!

[killer-heels]

Commons will get a vote on the deal. Will be interesting if they vote against it.