Author Topic: UK General Election 24/25?  (Read 25363 times)

Offline Red Beret

  • Yellow Beret. Wants to sit in the Lobster Pot. Fat-fingered. Key. Boa. Rd. Kille. R. tonunlick! Soggy Knickers King. Bed-Exiting / Grunting / Bending Down / Cum Face Champion 2023.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 51,546
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #600 on: April 2, 2024, 12:32:21 pm »
In respect the right wing rags, I imagine they're seeing where their audience is drifting and they will just follow suit.

Fox had to tack right because they had enclosed the MAGA crowd in such a tight bubble they couldn't pull them back easily. It'll be something similar to that.
I don't always visit Lobster Pot.  But when I do. I sit.

Popcorn's Art

Offline PaulF

  • https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/paulfelce
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,849
  • Nothing feels as good as fat tastes.
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #601 on: April 2, 2024, 03:00:01 pm »
1 person had been convicted of voter fraud in the previous election out of 10s millions of votes.
I disagree that is a strong argument for saying we don't have voter fraud.
Look how few rape \ sexual assault cases lead to conviction.  And they are the strongest cases they can muster.

Inherently I agree that I don't believe that there is anwhere near a significant amount of voter fraud.  Manipulation of voters by the owners of the major media outlets is a far bigger problem.

I suppose too, it's unlikely any newly elected government is going to prioritise making sure that all the votes for them were legitimate either :)
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

Online oldfordie

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,442
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #602 on: April 2, 2024, 03:18:47 pm »
I disagree that is a strong argument for saying we don't have voter fraud.
Look how few rape \ sexual assault cases lead to conviction.  And they are the strongest cases they can muster.

Inherently I agree that I don't believe that there is anwhere near a significant amount of voter fraud.  Manipulation of voters by the owners of the major media outlets is a far bigger problem.

I suppose too, it's unlikely any newly elected government is going to prioritise making sure that all the votes for them were legitimate either :)
So how does someone commit voter fraud, I think we can safely assume they must have voted themselves if they are prepared to vote using someone elses vote, I would also assume they live with the person whose vote they intend to steal. walking back into the same polling station and telling those same election officials your somebody else is rather stupid so they would more likely to ask them to apply for a postal vote, afaik. this legislation wont stop postal voting fraud.   they could be stealing someone elses vote in another polling station, that would mean a older parent I imagine, if they intend to do this then why take the chance, why not just ask them to apply for a postal vote. same thing again, why take the risk.
I can see some nasty gammon registering all his family for a postal vote and filling them in himself but they aren't going to stop it with voter ID laws.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
ďBut by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasnít.Ē
               Emily Maitlis

Offline red_Mark1980

  • Wool ginger runner
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,546
  • J.F.T.97
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #603 on: April 2, 2024, 04:37:34 pm »
I disagree that is a strong argument for saying we don't have voter fraud.
Look how few rape \ sexual assault cases lead to conviction.  And they are the strongest cases they can muster.

Inherently I agree that I don't believe that there is anwhere near a significant amount of voter fraud.  Manipulation of voters by the owners of the major media outlets is a far bigger problem.

I suppose too, it's unlikely any newly elected government is going to prioritise making sure that all the votes for them were legitimate either :)

It would have to be so organised on a huge scale., in a seat that can swing either way.

It's just not a problem to worry about. I take the point that we don't know, what we don't know.

But come on. If this was being done on a scale to make a material difference then we'd have more than one conviction..just from the amount of people needed.

Offline LuverlyRita

  • metar made
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 598
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #604 on: April 2, 2024, 04:58:09 pm »
It makes very little sense either way.

May will be an absolute bloodbath for the Tories, they already know that and Sunak is just putting a Summer election out there as a possibility to stop a challenge from coming in because there is nothing in it for him to bring the election forward and end his time as PM sooner rather then later.
He's delaying as long as possible so that he can continuue lining the pockets of his backers, his mates and his family, continue selling off the UK PLC (freeports etc) and continue running The NHS into the ground. In the case of the latter, the cuts in funding and replacement of trained medical professionals with "associates" (i.e. anyone with a degree who's done a 2 year basic course) should just about finish it off.

Offline Statto Red

  • Hung like a sperm whale but only around the middle. Proud owner of a couple of spare arms, although is pits pong like the bins, not very appealing. Bambi on ice.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 22,202
  • Kloppite
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #605 on: April 3, 2024, 08:17:16 am »
Looking at the dates, latest possible date for the general election is 28th January, however that date in 2025 falls on a Tuesday, last general election held on a Tuesday was in 1931, latest date for the general election on a Thursday is 23rd January, the general election would have to be called no later than 12th December, that's if the Tories try & cling on that long.

I don't think anyone fancies the prospect of campaigning in the build up & over the festive season, plus most voters won't be paying much attention to the campaigning too, far too busy preparing for, then celebrating over the festive season.
#Sausages

Offline killer-heels

  • Hates everyone and everything. Including YOU! Negativity not just for Christmas. Thinks 'irony' means 'metallic'......
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 76,464
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #606 on: April 3, 2024, 09:17:15 am »
Looking at the dates, latest possible date for the general election is 28th January, however that date in 2025 falls on a Tuesday, last general election held on a Tuesday was in 1931, latest date for the general election on a Thursday is 23rd January, the general election would have to be called no later than 12th December, that's if the Tories try & cling on that long.

I don't think anyone fancies the prospect of campaigning in the build up & over the festive season, plus most voters won't be paying much attention to the campaigning too, far too busy preparing for, then celebrating over the festive season.

Yep absolutely. People have said the Tories will wait it out until January but campaigning over Christmas is going to be non-existent and thats not factoring the possibility of awful weather over the winter. The absolute latest the Tories will have an election date is December. Basically the election is 100% happening this year.

Online west_london_red

  • Knows his stuff - pull the udder one! RAWK's Dairy Queen.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,893
  • watching me? but whose watching you watching me?
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #607 on: April 3, 2024, 09:29:13 am »
I disagree that is a strong argument for saying we don't have voter fraud.
Look how few rape \ sexual assault cases lead to conviction.  And they are the strongest cases they can muster.

Inherently I agree that I don't believe that there is anwhere near a significant amount of voter fraud.  Manipulation of voters by the owners of the major media outlets is a far bigger problem.

I suppose too, it's unlikely any newly elected government is going to prioritise making sure that all the votes for them were legitimate either :)

Voter ID in itself isnít the worst idea in the world, as usual itís the way itís been implemented. In almost every other country that has it people have national ID cards so no one has to do anything special, everyone that can vote already has ID. The issue is we donít have national ID cards, and the list of acceptable IDs specifically disenfranchises specific groups unlikely to vote Tory.
Thinking is overrated.
The mind is a tool, it's not meant to be used that much.
Rest, love, observe. Laugh.

Online west_london_red

  • Knows his stuff - pull the udder one! RAWK's Dairy Queen.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,893
  • watching me? but whose watching you watching me?
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #608 on: April 3, 2024, 09:31:39 am »
Looking at the dates, latest possible date for the general election is 28th January, however that date in 2025 falls on a Tuesday, last general election held on a Tuesday was in 1931, latest date for the general election on a Thursday is 23rd January, the general election would have to be called no later than 12th December, that's if the Tories try & cling on that long.

I don't think anyone fancies the prospect of campaigning in the build up & over the festive season, plus most voters won't be paying much attention to the campaigning too, far too busy preparing for, then celebrating over the festive season.

They wonít hold an election in January as everyone is skint after Christmas.
Thinking is overrated.
The mind is a tool, it's not meant to be used that much.
Rest, love, observe. Laugh.

Offline Red Beret

  • Yellow Beret. Wants to sit in the Lobster Pot. Fat-fingered. Key. Boa. Rd. Kille. R. tonunlick! Soggy Knickers King. Bed-Exiting / Grunting / Bending Down / Cum Face Champion 2023.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 51,546
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #609 on: April 3, 2024, 09:41:17 am »
Voter ID in itself isnít the worst idea in the world, as usual itís the way itís been implemented. In almost every other country that has it people have national ID cards so no one has to do anything special, everyone that can vote already has ID. The issue is we donít have national ID cards, and the list of acceptable IDs specifically disenfranchises specific groups unlikely to vote Tory.

I remain opposed to ID cards. I still think it is far too "Big Brother" and future governments would seek to manipulate them to their own advantage. And I've yet to hear of any tangible evidence of realistic voter fraud in this country, so I don't see the need for photo ID in order to vote. (Although doubtless claims of voter fraud will be rife after the Tories are utterly battered at the next election - and probably come most loudly from Reform.)

Labour under Blair floated the idea of ID cards and I thought it was a bad idea even then. Mostly because I know how the civil service in this country is run: overstretched and under funded. I joked at the time that you would probably be able to get a fake ID card before the real ones were ready, and it would probably cost you less money (because yes, they government were going to charge people for their own ID cards). I think the initial cost estimate to introduce ID cards was something like £6bn; we all know it likely would have cost at least double that, and likely been at least two years late. And that would have been under a Labour government, which we would consider relatively reliable.

Can you imagine a scheme like that under the fricking Tories? You saw what they did with PPE. A national ID scheme in this country is pointless because it would be hugely expensive, take forever and handled incompetently by departments ill equipped to do what's being asked of them. Frankly, there are more important things in this country that need that kind of money right now.
I don't always visit Lobster Pot.  But when I do. I sit.

Popcorn's Art

Offline Red Beret

  • Yellow Beret. Wants to sit in the Lobster Pot. Fat-fingered. Key. Boa. Rd. Kille. R. tonunlick! Soggy Knickers King. Bed-Exiting / Grunting / Bending Down / Cum Face Champion 2023.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 51,546
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #610 on: April 3, 2024, 09:45:16 am »
Looking at the dates, latest possible date for the general election is 28th January, however that date in 2025 falls on a Tuesday, last general election held on a Tuesday was in 1931, latest date for the general election on a Thursday is 23rd January, the general election would have to be called no later than 12th December, that's if the Tories try & cling on that long.

I don't think anyone fancies the prospect of campaigning in the build up & over the festive season, plus most voters won't be paying much attention to the campaigning too, far too busy preparing for, then celebrating over the festive season.

I just want interviewers to start calling Sunak out. I want them to start calling him a coward. I want them to say to him, "you know you're not going to win - you're not going to even lessen the scale of the defeat. You're just clinging on for the sake of it, a lame duck PM, leading a lame duck government. You're a coward. The people want change, call the election. The people of this country think you look pathetic and you're only making things worse."
I don't always visit Lobster Pot.  But when I do. I sit.

Popcorn's Art

Online Dr. Beaker

  • Veo, to his mates. Shares 50% of his DNA with a banana. Would dearly love to strangle Frankengoose. Lo! Be he not ye Messiah, verily be he a child of questionable conduct in the eyes of Ye Holy Border Guards.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 16,800
  • I... think I am, therefore...I....maybe.
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #611 on: April 3, 2024, 10:24:20 am »


Labour under Blair floated the idea of ID cards and I thought it was a bad idea even then. Mostly because I know how the civil service in this country is run: overstretched and under funded. I joked at the time that you would probably be able to get a fake ID card before the real ones were ready, and it would probably cost you less money (because yes, they government were going to charge people for their own ID cards). I think the initial cost estimate to introduce ID cards was something like £6bn; we all know it likely would have cost at least double that, and likely been at least two years late. And that would have been under a Labour government, which we would consider relatively reliable.

 
If they put Dido Harding in charge of it, it will cost a lot more than 6bn but at least it will all go to their mates.

Historically, having a winter election is thought to deter Labour's vote 'getting out', not sure if that would be the case this time though, could work the other way around.
NAKED BOOBERY

Rile-Me costed L. Nee-Naw "The Child" Torrence the first jack the hat-trick since Eon Rush vs Accursed Toffos, many moons passed. Nee-Naw he could have done a concreted his palace in the pantyhose off the LibPole Gods...was not was for the invented intervention of Rile-Me whistler.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

  • Batshit fucker and Chief Yuletide Porcine Voyeur
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,038
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #612 on: April 3, 2024, 10:37:20 am »
Voter ID in itself isnít the worst idea in the world, as usual itís the way itís been implemented. In almost every other country that has it people have national ID cards so no one has to do anything special, everyone that can vote already has ID. The issue is we donít have national ID cards, and the list of acceptable IDs specifically disenfranchises specific groups unlikely to vote Tory.
This.

It is a disgrace. Due to how voter ID is implemented (and FPTP), the UK hardly qualifies as a democracy.
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

  • Batshit fucker and Chief Yuletide Porcine Voyeur
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,038
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #613 on: April 3, 2024, 10:39:52 am »
I remain opposed to ID cards. I still think it is far too "Big Brother" and future governments would seek to manipulate them to their own advantage. And I've yet to hear of any tangible evidence of realistic voter fraud in this country, so I don't see the need for photo ID in order to vote. (Although doubtless claims of voter fraud will be rife after the Tories are utterly battered at the next election - and probably come most loudly from Reform.)

Labour under Blair floated the idea of ID cards and I thought it was a bad idea even then. Mostly because I know how the civil service in this country is run: overstretched and under funded. I joked at the time that you would probably be able to get a fake ID card before the real ones were ready, and it would probably cost you less money (because yes, they government were going to charge people for their own ID cards). I think the initial cost estimate to introduce ID cards was something like £6bn; we all know it likely would have cost at least double that, and likely been at least two years late. And that would have been under a Labour government, which we would consider relatively reliable.

Can you imagine a scheme like that under the fricking Tories? You saw what they did with PPE. A national ID scheme in this country is pointless because it would be hugely expensive, take forever and handled incompetently by departments ill equipped to do what's being asked of them. Frankly, there are more important things in this country that need that kind of money right now.
I was against them too during the Blair Government. But having had them elsewhere, I am more relaxed about them too. Further, they do better ensure that various groups are not nefariously disenfranchised from the vote.
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

  • Batshit fucker and Chief Yuletide Porcine Voyeur
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,038
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #614 on: April 3, 2024, 10:43:13 am »
I just want interviewers to start calling Sunak out. I want them to start calling him a coward. I want them to say to him, "you know you're not going to win - you're not going to even lessen the scale of the defeat. You're just clinging on for the sake of it, a lame duck PM, leading a lame duck government. You're a coward. The people want change, call the election. The people of this country think you look pathetic and you're only making things worse."
How about an interviewer telling Sunak: 'You are always telling us what voters want - well, I'm telling you, the voters want you to call an election and to get out. So, why will you not obey the will of the people'?
« Last Edit: April 3, 2024, 10:59:20 am by Jiminy Cricket »
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

Offline Red Beret

  • Yellow Beret. Wants to sit in the Lobster Pot. Fat-fingered. Key. Boa. Rd. Kille. R. tonunlick! Soggy Knickers King. Bed-Exiting / Grunting / Bending Down / Cum Face Champion 2023.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 51,546
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #615 on: April 3, 2024, 10:46:36 am »
I was against them too during the Blair Government. But having had them elsewhere, I am more relaxed about them too. Further, they do better ensure that various groups are not nefariously disenfranchised from the vote.

this is the point. The Tories introduced voter ID laws specifically to disenfranchise voters. It had nothing to do with voter fraud. So either ditch the ID law or bring in Voter ID cards.
I don't always visit Lobster Pot.  But when I do. I sit.

Popcorn's Art

Offline Riquende

  • Taking one for the team by giving one to a lucky mascot? Pix or stfu!! (Although is PC is from the 90s so you'll have to wait a while...)
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,779
  • Μετρήστε με με μανία
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #616 on: April 3, 2024, 10:54:10 am »
How about an interviewer telling Sunak: 'You are always telling us what voters want - well, I'm telling you, the voters what you to call an election and to get out. So, why will you not obey the will of the people'?

Can we hire that Scottish weirdo from the GB News 'forum' to follow him round saying this?
"The nicest thing about quotes is that they give us a nodding acquaintance with the originator which is often socially impressive."

~ Kenneth Williams, with whom I'm noddingly acquainted. Socially impressed?

Offline Red Beret

  • Yellow Beret. Wants to sit in the Lobster Pot. Fat-fingered. Key. Boa. Rd. Kille. R. tonunlick! Soggy Knickers King. Bed-Exiting / Grunting / Bending Down / Cum Face Champion 2023.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 51,546
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #617 on: April 3, 2024, 10:59:28 am »
Electoral Calculus has released their latest MRP poll, and it's absolutely brutal for the Tories. They're now predicting 90 seats - down from 113 back in February, and something like 123 prior to that.
I don't always visit Lobster Pot.  But when I do. I sit.

Popcorn's Art

Online oldfordie

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,442
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #618 on: April 3, 2024, 11:35:17 am »
this is the point. The Tories introduced voter ID laws specifically to disenfranchise voters. It had nothing to do with voter fraud. So either ditch the ID law or bring in Voter ID cards.
Yes, I think it's also about putting a obstacle in the way of Labour voters.
Who is less likely to have a driving licence/Passport? logic must say it's people on low income who can't afford a car, cant afford to go on foreign holidays.

It's also about deterring the man in the street from voting, many people aren't that bothered about voting, they don't follow politics, I doubt if they understand the ID laws on voting. this is a reason for them not too bother, how they may not be allowed to vote anyway so why bother.
This is 100% about trying to stop Labour leaning supporters voting. it's called Voter suppression for a reason, the intention is to suppress the vote.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
ďBut by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasnít.Ē
               Emily Maitlis

Online Elmo!

  • Spolier alret!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,425
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #619 on: April 3, 2024, 02:05:33 pm »
Can we hire that Scottish weirdo from the GB News 'forum' to follow him round saying this?

Initially assumed you were talking about Neil Oliver here.

Offline Statto Red

  • Hung like a sperm whale but only around the middle. Proud owner of a couple of spare arms, although is pits pong like the bins, not very appealing. Bambi on ice.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 22,202
  • Kloppite
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #620 on: April 3, 2024, 02:45:02 pm »
this is the point. The Tories introduced voter ID laws specifically to disenfranchise voters. It had nothing to do with voter fraud. So either ditch the ID law or bring in Voter ID cards.

Exactly voter ID was only brought in for the Tories to gerrymander elections [the Tories admitted this after last years local elections], it had nothing to do with voter fraud, guess what over 60s most likely group to vote Tory can use their bus pass for ID, but i can't use my disabled bus pass, i have to use a driving licence or passport.

I'm against ID cards too not just because of cost of introducing them, but the sort of stuff that's going to be stored on them, guarantee every government will manipulate the laws, to give a wider scope of what can be stored on such cards, i do remember the Labour government proposing ID card scheme they ended thrown out as too costly & what could be stored on them, imagine what draconian new laws this government would force on ID cards had they been introduced.

As for voter fraud, i can only ever remember a couple of cases of voter fraud in the UK, one of which when you could only vote by post [2003 local elections], that was ripe for fraud as you had to have someone with you to confirm you voted.
#Sausages

Offline PaulF

  • https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/paulfelce
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,849
  • Nothing feels as good as fat tastes.
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #621 on: April 3, 2024, 02:49:05 pm »
The bus pass thing is mad / a pointer to true intent.
Don't under 25s pretty much have to have I'd to get into pubs? Campaign to get that accepted and it's fairer.
Is it also one of those look over there things?
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

Online west_london_red

  • Knows his stuff - pull the udder one! RAWK's Dairy Queen.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,893
  • watching me? but whose watching you watching me?
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #622 on: April 3, 2024, 03:29:41 pm »
The bus pass thing is mad / a pointer to true intent.
Don't under 25s pretty much have to have I'd to get into pubs? Campaign to get that accepted and it's fairer.
Is it also one of those look over there things?

No, it is what it is, just an attempt at suppressing the votes of people unlikely to vote Tory. As I said before, either add in a load of additional IDs that younger people have (NUS card for example) or just scrap it altogether, and then letís get our own back and reduce the voting age to 16, Iíd also like to see how Labour can starve the Tories of funds as the Tories have tried doing to Labour.
Thinking is overrated.
The mind is a tool, it's not meant to be used that much.
Rest, love, observe. Laugh.

Offline Riquende

  • Taking one for the team by giving one to a lucky mascot? Pix or stfu!! (Although is PC is from the 90s so you'll have to wait a while...)
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,779
  • Μετρήστε με με μανία
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #623 on: April 3, 2024, 04:50:02 pm »
YouGov's MRP has updated and is also still sliding away from the Tories. From 169 Tory seats (behind Labour's 385) in January they're now down a further 32 seats against a hypothetical Starmer government , on 155 to Labour's 403.

I don't think anyone would expect a poll at the moment to buck the trend, but I'm still happy to see things reinforced by multiple sources. This time next month the local election results may result in yet more carnage.
"The nicest thing about quotes is that they give us a nodding acquaintance with the originator which is often socially impressive."

~ Kenneth Williams, with whom I'm noddingly acquainted. Socially impressed?

Offline Red Beret

  • Yellow Beret. Wants to sit in the Lobster Pot. Fat-fingered. Key. Boa. Rd. Kille. R. tonunlick! Soggy Knickers King. Bed-Exiting / Grunting / Bending Down / Cum Face Champion 2023.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 51,546
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #624 on: April 3, 2024, 04:58:29 pm »
The local elections will provide the most solid and wide ranging evidence of what to expect at the GE. I think Labour support has essentially peaked, and now it's all about Reform eating away at the Tories core support.
I don't always visit Lobster Pot.  But when I do. I sit.

Popcorn's Art

Online CornerFlag

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,649
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #625 on: April 3, 2024, 05:10:38 pm »
YouGov poll here has the Tories polling better, but still going to get a kicking:

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

Labour - 403 (202 in 2019)
Conservatives - 155 (365 in 2019)
Lib Dems - 49 (11 in 2019)
SNP - 19 (48 in 2019)
Plaid - 4 (same)
Greens - 1 (same)

YouGov's MRP has updated and is also still sliding away from the Tories. From 169 Tory seats (behind Labour's 385) in January they're now down a further 32 seats against a hypothetical Starmer government , on 155 to Labour's 403

Ah, sorry mate, just saw this after I posted it!
My Twitter

Last time I went there I saw masturbating chimpanzees. Whether you think that's worthy of £22 is up to you. All I'll say is I now have an annual pass.

Offline Riquende

  • Taking one for the team by giving one to a lucky mascot? Pix or stfu!! (Although is PC is from the 90s so you'll have to wait a while...)
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,779
  • Μετρήστε με με μανία
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #626 on: April 3, 2024, 05:22:35 pm »
Ah, sorry mate, just saw this after I posted it!

No need, it's always good to have the full picture with the other parties involved. I'm just more interested at this point in how the figures are moving within each specific poll. It's one thing to get excited about 155 seats but if the last Yougov poll had them at about 140 then it's going in the wrong direction.
"The nicest thing about quotes is that they give us a nodding acquaintance with the originator which is often socially impressive."

~ Kenneth Williams, with whom I'm noddingly acquainted. Socially impressed?

Online Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,492
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #627 on: April 3, 2024, 06:09:05 pm »
Reform suspend two candidates for posting racist comments (yes, I know).

Their supporters do not take the news well....

https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1775532359430840702

Online CornerFlag

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,649
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #628 on: April 3, 2024, 06:15:17 pm »
No need, it's always good to have the full picture with the other parties involved. I'm just more interested at this point in how the figures are moving within each specific poll. It's one thing to get excited about 155 seats but if the last Yougov poll had them at about 140 then it's going in the wrong direction.
Yeah, I've reviewed polls of polls and the overall trend is great, but there's fluctuation in them enough to be a little on edge.  I don't think the prediction of a Labour win will be wrong, but I suspect that by the time the GE is announced, it'll be a little tighter, and I think those that would nominally vote for Reform but have a history of voting Tory will regress back to the latter.

I've looked through the raw data from that YouGov survey and it shows just how tactical voting could really sway certain constituencies:

Frome and East Somerset
Conservative 27.54%
Labour 27.24%
Lib Dem 23.43%
Green 8.59%
Reform 12.09%
Other 1.11%

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Conservative 29.08%
Labour 21.38%
Lib Dem 25.76%
Green 2.15%
Reform 11.40%
Plaid 9.27%
Other 0.98%

These are two where the third-best parties could easily decide to not campaign or campaign less and push those Tory votes away.  This will likely be a unique opportunity to use Reform to destroy the Conservatives at a microscopic level.  Other Tory holds with close votes are Bridgwater, Runnymede and Weybridge, Chelmsford, South Devon, Sutton and Cheam, St. Neots and Mid-Cambridgeshire, Aylesbury, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, North Shropshire, Bicester and Woodstock, Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, Newton Abbott, Aldershot, South West Hertfordshire, Tewkesbury, Chicester, Isle of Wight East, Horsham and a fair few others...
My Twitter

Last time I went there I saw masturbating chimpanzees. Whether you think that's worthy of £22 is up to you. All I'll say is I now have an annual pass.

Offline WhereAngelsPlay

  • Rockwool Marketing Board Spokesman. Cracker Wanker. Fucking calmest man on RAWK, alright? ALRIGHT?! Definitely a bigger cunt than YOU!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 26,451
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #629 on: April 3, 2024, 06:18:09 pm »
Not going to get my hopes up, still bitter over Europe and Trump  :)
My cup, it runneth over, I'll never get my fill

Online oldfordie

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,442
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #630 on: April 3, 2024, 06:22:28 pm »
YouGov poll here has the Tories polling better, but still going to get a kicking:

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

Labour - 403 (202 in 2019)
Conservatives - 155 (365 in 2019)
Lib Dems - 49 (11 in 2019)
SNP - 19 (48 in 2019)
Plaid - 4 (same)
Greens - 1 (same)

Ah, sorry mate, just saw this after I posted it!
Wonder if it has anything to do with the latest child care giveaway. imagine some will find it tempting. we will have to see how it works out in practice.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
ďBut by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasnít.Ē
               Emily Maitlis

Online TSC

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 25,465
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #631 on: April 3, 2024, 06:27:28 pm »
Always thought (hoped) the Tories may implode after the purge by Cummings & Johnson.  That episode ultimately binned all those Tories not willing to join the band of ĎBrexití sycophants.  In doing so those with experience of governing were replaced by a load of inexperienced folk, many of whom were loons as well.

Offline Riquende

  • Taking one for the team by giving one to a lucky mascot? Pix or stfu!! (Although is PC is from the 90s so you'll have to wait a while...)
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,779
  • Μετρήστε με με μανία
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #632 on: April 3, 2024, 06:29:58 pm »
Wonder if it has anything to do with the latest child care giveaway

It's not a polling improvement, because the same poll had them higher previously. Yes it's more seats that the poll the other day, but that was a different pollster so different methodology & model to take into consideration.
"The nicest thing about quotes is that they give us a nodding acquaintance with the originator which is often socially impressive."

~ Kenneth Williams, with whom I'm noddingly acquainted. Socially impressed?

Online oldfordie

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,442
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #633 on: April 3, 2024, 06:38:30 pm »
It's not a polling improvement, because the same poll had them higher previously. Yes it's more seats that the poll the other day, but that was a different pollster so different methodology & model to take into consideration.
I see, thanks.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
ďBut by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasnít.Ē
               Emily Maitlis

Offline Red Beret

  • Yellow Beret. Wants to sit in the Lobster Pot. Fat-fingered. Key. Boa. Rd. Kille. R. tonunlick! Soggy Knickers King. Bed-Exiting / Grunting / Bending Down / Cum Face Champion 2023.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 51,546
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #634 on: April 3, 2024, 07:28:48 pm »
Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, Labour could stay stuck on around 45% (for example) from now till the election. But if the Tories continue to lose support to Reform, then Labour's seats could still go up, despite them not budging from that 45%.

It's less now about the gap between Labour and the Tories and more about the gap between Tories and Reform. Plus, Labour and Lib-Dem voters know how to tactically vote; they've done it before.
I don't always visit Lobster Pot.  But when I do. I sit.

Popcorn's Art

Offline Wabaloolah

  • Rocks to the East, Rocks to the West. Definitely Unscotch.
  • Matchday Commentator
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 24,632
  • Allez Allez Allez
    • My Twitter Account
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #635 on: April 3, 2024, 08:29:52 pm »
YouGov poll here has the Tories polling better, but still going to get a kicking:

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

Labour - 403 (202 in 2019)
Conservatives - 155 (365 in 2019)
Lib Dems - 49 (11 in 2019)
SNP - 19 (48 in 2019)
Plaid - 4 (same)
Greens - 1 (same)

Ah, sorry mate, just saw this after I posted it!
even though that poll brings in a smaller majority than Electoral Calculus, it's encouraging that it's still a huge landslide with a 17 point lead which is lower than most of the polls are showing and with Labour only on 41% of the vote.

I suspect tactical voting is in play on these larger polls but also not entirely sure they necessarily get the don't knows and might not votes completely right.

I suspect this poll is at the upper edge of the Tory number of seats too and even more tactical voting will push more seats away from them.

It's all very good still
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


If anyone is going to put a few fingers deep into my arse it's going to be me.

Offline Wabaloolah

  • Rocks to the East, Rocks to the West. Definitely Unscotch.
  • Matchday Commentator
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 24,632
  • Allez Allez Allez
    • My Twitter Account
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #636 on: April 3, 2024, 08:30:45 pm »
I also think the Tories will struggle to hold those two seats in mid-Wales
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


If anyone is going to put a few fingers deep into my arse it's going to be me.

Offline Riquende

  • Taking one for the team by giving one to a lucky mascot? Pix or stfu!! (Although is PC is from the 90s so you'll have to wait a while...)
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,779
  • Μετρήστε με με μανία
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #637 on: April 3, 2024, 10:26:11 pm »
Reform suspend two candidates for posting racist comments (yes, I know).

Their supporters do not take the news well....

https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1775532359430840702

Today I've learned that Reform is being outflanked on their own Right by the... checks notes Homeland Party?

Next week we'll learn about some new schism and that the Homelanders are being outflanked by the... I dunno... Spitfires, Crusaders and a Golliwog in every Toybox Party?
"The nicest thing about quotes is that they give us a nodding acquaintance with the originator which is often socially impressive."

~ Kenneth Williams, with whom I'm noddingly acquainted. Socially impressed?

Offline PaulF

  • https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/paulfelce
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,849
  • Nothing feels as good as fat tastes.
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #638 on: April 4, 2024, 11:44:21 pm »
Today I've learned that Reform is being outflanked on their own Right by the... checks notes Homeland Party?

Next week we'll learn about some new schism and that the Homelanders are being outflanked by the... I dunno... Spitfires, Crusaders and a Golliwog in every Toybox Party?

I don't think there are enough George crosses and not woke logos left for all those people.
God I love the safety of RAWK. Not having to mingle with these anti woke, not left crusaders.
Was mildly interested that being anti woke was such a bad thing, though I think it may just be a thin disguise for racist c*nt.

Edit. I mean big thing. Not bad thing.
« Last Edit: April 5, 2024, 10:22:48 am by PaulF »
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

Offline Riquende

  • Taking one for the team by giving one to a lucky mascot? Pix or stfu!! (Although is PC is from the 90s so you'll have to wait a while...)
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,779
  • Μετρήστε με με μανία
Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #639 on: April 5, 2024, 12:18:34 am »
Was mildly interested that being anti woke was such a bad thing

Just once, ever, I'd love to see one of these raging anti-woke activists provide any sort of rationale for why 'woke' is even vaguely negative. You'd think they might have an answer by now, having fought against it for years now and gone on TV many times to warn about the dangers of the 'woke menace'.

But instead you have this. Notorious online provocateur Chaya Raichik (who runs and is "LibsofTikTok") up in front of a class of students.



So there you go. Anything that's not normal (because our 'normalicy' has been destroyed) and ends our lives is Woke. These people make their careers off this. If she was in the UK she'd have 3 hours daily on GB News by now to yammer on about any old guff that involved rainbows and Meghan Markle. When did such towering non-entities demand so much public oxygen?
"The nicest thing about quotes is that they give us a nodding acquaintance with the originator which is often socially impressive."

~ Kenneth Williams, with whom I'm noddingly acquainted. Socially impressed?