Author Topic: General Political discussion with kesey-style vibes & tantric breathing stuff...  (Read 182007 times)

Offline So... Howard Phillips

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5680 on: June 14, 2019, 10:53:29 PM »
I don't think Hancock is any worse than Stewart/Stewart is any better than Hancock, yet no-one is swooning over Hancock.

Probably because Stewart has a more interesting back story serving as a civilian administrator in Iraq, walking across Afghanistan, smoking in Uran, actually speaking a foreign language.

Or maybe Hancock hasn't been able to get a sympathetic view from the media.

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5681 on: June 14, 2019, 11:20:02 PM »
Probably because Stewart has a more interesting back story serving as a civilian administrator in Iraq, walking across Afghanistan, smoking in Uran, actually speaking a foreign language.

Or maybe Hancock hasn't been able to get a sympathetic view from the media.

Well, Peston's more than a bit keen on Stewart.

Quote
.@RoryStewartUK electrified this tent.  He delivered the most coherent and lyrical launch speech of any candidate. On this showing the Tories have found a proper star. But they will reject him, because his ďmoderateĒ views are out of touch with his party. Labour will be relieved

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1138497597759459328 

:puke2

This Stewart love-in has echoes of Clegg and Corbyn's rises and by now, people really should know better than to fall head over heels for someone that's merely saying the right things.

I've seen Corbynistas elsewhere annoyed by what they see as pro-EU people wetting themselves over a guy that's repeatedly voted against taking no deal off the table while they criticise Labour/Corbyn's position on Brexit, and I think they're making a fair point.

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5682 on: June 15, 2019, 12:07:06 AM »
Blair rips apart Corbyn on Labours history.
Maomentum takes the p... out of Momentums response.
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https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1139611599789051904


 
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Blair favoured deregulation of the banking industry - leading to one of the worst crashes in modern history.
While spending on public services was higher, his legacy will ultimately be the austerity that followed his failure to stand up to big finance.

Maomentum
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 1h1 hour ago
Tony Blair spent too much on public services, causing the crash and savage Tory cuts and austerity AND THIS PROVES NEW LABOUR AND THE TORIES WERE EXACTLY THE SAME

"Brexit is like a political Ponzi scheme. It was a political movement that promised impossible returns: a swift, painless, problem-free departure from the EU."

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5683 on: June 15, 2019, 12:21:54 AM »
I guess when people talk of traditional Labour voters they must mean pre Blair because after Blair Labour wasn't really Labour again until Jeremy became leader.

If only John Smith hadn't passed away the World would be a different place right now.


Oh aye?

Would that be this John Smith?...  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34244370

1993

- On BBC Radio 4's PM programme he (Corbyn) criticises Labour leader John Smith for "failing to articulate the views of the mass of the people".

Islington Labour councillor Greg Hayman tells the Islington Gazette: "It is typical of Jeremy to put the boot into the leadership when John Smith is 20 points ahead in the opinion polls."




You can do one claiming John Smith as one of yours you fucking cuckoo.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5684 on: June 15, 2019, 01:02:49 AM »
You fucking Cuckoo   :lmao  ;D
My cup, it runneth over, I'll never get my fill

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5685 on: June 15, 2019, 01:04:32 AM »
Blair rips apart Corbyn on Labours history.
Maomentum takes the p... out of Momentums response.
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https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1139611599789051904


 
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Blair favoured deregulation of the banking industry - leading to one of the worst crashes in modern history.
While spending on public services was higher, his legacy will ultimately be the austerity that followed his failure to stand up to big finance.

Maomentum
@Maomentum_
 1h1 hour ago
Tony Blair spent too much on public services, causing the crash and savage Tory cuts and austerity AND THIS PROVES NEW LABOUR AND THE TORIES WERE EXACTLY THE SAME

Jesus are they still trying to make this stick despite the fact that Brown/Darling effectively put the plan together to resolve what would have been a world banking crisis driven by indiscriminate lending by American banks and their attempt to sell on the debt PROFITABLY? Happy to debate any element of the Labour movement from Keir Hardy onwards, but unfortunately you canít debate with Labourís equivalent of The Moonies.

Oh and by the way, small but not inconsequential point but was not Blair but Brown Chancellor of the Exchequer and did he not introduce the FSA, which Cameron vowed to repeal?

Fuck me Momentum are now the Ministry of Truth - Doubleplusungood
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 01:15:30 AM by Mag Hull »
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5686 on: June 15, 2019, 01:17:18 AM »
Jesus are they still trying to make this stick despite the fact that Brown/Darling effectively put the plan together to resolve what would have been a world banking crisis driven by indiscriminate lending by American banks and their attempt to sell on the debt PROFITABLY? Happy to debate any element of the Labour movement from Keir Hardy onwards, but unfortunately you canít debate with Labourís equivalent of The Moonies.
I can understand the criticisms for unregulated bankers etc, I support those criticisms strongly, lessons have to be learned. it's the dirt thrown at the last Labour government for being as bad as the Tories that I find sickening, for doing nothing for the working class, for not caring about education,etc etc. who made these arguments. people like Corbyn and his supporters, the very people who helped bring about Tory governments are now telling us, shame on you people for not supporting Jeremy, anyone who doesn't vote for Corbyn doesn't care about poverty and our schools etc etc.
"Brexit is like a political Ponzi scheme. It was a political movement that promised impossible returns: a swift, painless, problem-free departure from the EU."

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5687 on: June 15, 2019, 01:54:01 AM »
This Stewart love-in has echoes of Clegg and Corbyn's rises and by now, people really should know better than to fall head over heels for someone that's merely saying the right things.

I've seen Corbynistas elsewhere annoyed by what they see as pro-EU people wetting themselves over a guy that's repeatedly voted against taking no deal off the table while they criticise Labour/Corbyn's position on Brexit, and I think they're making a fair point.

Emma Burnell (Open Labour) has been comparing him to Liz Kendall. Which scans well in terms of being utterly disconnected from the electorate he needs to address in the immediate sense but pulling in outsized attention from beyond it. I suppose everyone has a nostalgia - is the late 90s so much worse than the early 70s? Question Burnell has asked is why no learning has gone on with the likes of Stewart about why/how he's now addressing an audience who won't vote for him. Which is fair. Can also flip that round too to why the two 'main' (yikes Yougov - tinkerbell effect of FPTP is going to switch if that continues) parties no longer have tents big enough to accommodate their former members/voters?
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5688 on: June 15, 2019, 01:59:16 AM »
I can understand the criticisms for unregulated bankers etc, I support those criticisms strongly, lessons have to be learned. it's the dirt thrown at the last Labour government for being as bad as the Tories that I find sickening, for doing nothing for the working class, for not caring about education,etc etc. who made these arguments. people like Corbyn and his supporters, the very people who helped bring about Tory governments are now telling us, shame on you people for not supporting Jeremy, anyone who doesn't vote for Corbyn doesn't care about poverty and our schools etc etc.

To me the significant miss of Millibandís 2015 election campaign was a refusal to put the causal facts of the 2008 crash to the electorate, which meant that the Tories were able to spin it as a consequence of Labour public spending. The resultant Tory ideologically driven Austerity program, coupled with the fact that none of the bankers concerned were held publicly accountable, has helped create the atmosphere of distrust towards mainstream politicians ushering in todayís snake oil merchants from both the left and right wing. The irony of the likes of Farage being seen to be an honest broker despite the real Brexit long game, is the fact that a lot of people got rich speculating on the result:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/25/nigel-farage-denies-shorting-value-of-sterling-on-night-of-brexit-vote

The irony of the likes of Corbyn; a man who has historically voted against the Labour Party 536 times since 1997*, capitalising on this, will be a wholesale sellout of the Labour movement - donít even start me on the erosion of employment rights - leading to a lot of people getting poorer.

https://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mp.php?id=uk.org.publicwhip/member/1655&showall=yes

* For the record and using the above link, during 1997 - 2001, Tony Benn voted against the government 46 times with Jeremy Corbyn voting against 77 times.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 02:39:19 AM by Mag Hull »
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5689 on: June 15, 2019, 03:03:10 AM »
To me the significant miss of Millibandís 2015 election campaign was a refusal to put the causal facts of the 2008 crash to the electorate, which meant that the Tories were able to spin it as a consequence of Labour public spending. The resultant Tory ideologically driven Austerity program, coupled with the fact that none of the bankers concerned were held publicly accountable, has helped create the atmosphere of distrust towards mainstream politicians ushering in todayís snake oil merchants from both the left and right wing. The irony of the likes of Farage being seen to be an honest broker despite the real Brexit long game, is the fact that a lot of people got rich speculating on the result:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/25/nigel-farage-denies-shorting-value-of-sterling-on-night-of-brexit-vote

The irony of the likes of Corbyn; a man who has historically voted against the Labour Party more than he has against the Tories, capitalising on this, will be a wholesale sellout of the Labour movement - donít even start me on the erosion of employment rights - leading to a lot of people getting poorer.
Yeah.Labour were never given the chance to put things right as the working class were convinced Labour had done nothing for them Labour were just as bad as the Tories. Corbyn and his supporters made those arguments.
The reaction by Labour voters including nearly every Labour supporter on this forum is not being acknowledge by Corbyn supporters, we ripped Miliband apart for being useless and leaving millions of working class people at the mercy of the Tories but make that same argument against Corbyn and suddenly people making these arguments don't care about people living in poverty, how we should be ashamed for not supporting Jeremy.
The rise of Farage IMO is a completely different to the old vote Labour v Tory arguments.
Dennis Skinner said Corbyn has walked down the same lobby as me for decades, he argues Corbyn would still be walking down the same lobby if he wasn't Labour leader.
I am not convinced Corbyn actually believes some of the anti EU arguments he's made all these years, they are very easy to disprove just as Johnsons £350 mill lie on the NHS is easy to disprove.
Gisela Stuart happily road around in that bus with the NHS lie on it's side, I can see Corbyn riding around in another red bus saying. "Lets leave the EU so we can Nationalise our railways if he wasn't leader.

« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 03:23:30 AM by oldfordie »
"Brexit is like a political Ponzi scheme. It was a political movement that promised impossible returns: a swift, painless, problem-free departure from the EU."

Offline Alan_X

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5690 on: June 15, 2019, 07:08:35 AM »
And when the Tories get elected yet again in the next GE will you be happy? 

Seems you love wallowing in the problems now which are not going to be solved by Corbyn standing down, in fact to put it straight the constant negative stuff from people such as yourself is doing as much damage as the leadership is.

I could even put it that you are a perfect example of why this party should split apart right now,  far too many people dont really give a shit about the state of this country they just want their dream of a perfect leader who suits their narrow viewpoint of how this party should be led. Sort of anyone but Corbyn and all the rest of the left of the party.

Why not Liz Kendall then ?

And in the end there are fuck all challengers coming up to take over anytime soon.

So just carry on destroying what's left of the party

More straw men. I don’t want a Tory government and I don’t think Liz Kendall is the answer.

Your still conflating the leadership election with ability as leader of the party. That’s the Catch 22 that we are living with.  The membership will continue to elect Corbyn despite him being utterly useless.

Yvette Cooper would have been a superb leader and has real nous. She would have campaigned to stay in with real commitment and I doubt we’d be in this fucking situation. And if she had been useless then we’d have had another leadership election and selected someone else. At the moment we have a cult of personality not a political party.

There is one small group of people destroying the Labour Party - Milne, Corbyn, McDonnell, McCluskey etc. I’m flattered that you think I’m able to bring down a political party from my computer keyboard but all I’m doing is exercising my democratic right to criticise the leader of the party for his incompetence and his political views. And to cast my vote as I please in elections.

I can see that criticising a Labour leader and voting against the party wouldn’t sit well with you.

 The reason I used to say “vote Labour as it’s the only way to stop the Tories” is no longer true. Under Corbyn, Labour has been completely useless and has been said a million times has enabled the Tories to press on with the right-wing Brexit project for his own political reasons.

Edit: and no I am not wallowing. At the moment I am shitting myself about the next year. You may be comfortably retired on a nice pension but I run a business that has already been hit by Brexit and if we have a no-deal Brexit we could even go under.

It’s not a game for me mate. This is real life and I am terrified of what could happen next.

So please don’t take this the wrong way, but stick your defence of Corbyn where the sun doesn’t shine.

I’ll be thinking of you on your allotment when I have to make my staff redundant.

Maybe a different leader wouldn’t have done any better but at least they would have tried.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 07:29:17 AM by Alan_X »
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5691 on: June 15, 2019, 07:40:02 AM »
Blair rips apart Corbyn on Labours history.
Maomentum takes the p... out of Momentums response.
Tony Blair Institute
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1139611599789051904


 
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Blair favoured deregulation of the banking industry - leading to one of the worst crashes in modern history.
While spending on public services was higher, his legacy will ultimately be the austerity that followed his failure to stand up to big finance.

Maomentum
@Maomentum_
 1h1 hour ago
Tony Blair spent too much on public services, causing the crash and savage Tory cuts and austerity AND THIS PROVES NEW LABOUR AND THE TORIES WERE EXACTLY THE SAME


mocent’s father ted meme was pretty good too

https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1139645682095153152?s=21

 momentum must be run by closet tories, then again their owner is minted so could well be some rich kids
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 07:41:34 AM by Lush is the best medicine... »

Offline Alan_X

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5692 on: June 15, 2019, 07:45:02 AM »
mocentís father ted meme was pretty good too

https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1139645682095153152?s=21

 momentum must be run by closet tories, then again their owner is minted so could well be some rich kids

Geoff - if you want to see people destroying the Labour Party...
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Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5693 on: June 15, 2019, 08:20:41 AM »
You can do one claiming John Smith as one of yours you fucking cuckoo.
That's brilliant. But of course cuckoos are what Gizza, Momentum and even MPs like Corbyn are.

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5694 on: June 15, 2019, 09:35:19 AM »
Is the Brexit Party just a sophisticated grifting scheme using UKIP's old mailing list? Was it £25 to call yourself a 'supporter'? Pay £100 and you get to enter the prospective parliamentary candidate lottery...

(Can't pull the pics, Otto English has screenshots of the e-mail)

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1139801706009640960
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5695 on: June 15, 2019, 09:50:29 AM »
I guess when people talk of traditional Labour voters they must mean pre Blair because after Blair Labour wasn't really Labour again until Jeremy became leader.

If only John Smith hadn't passed away the World would be a different place right now.

What a steaming pile of horseshit. John Smith had nothing to do with Corbyn when he was leader. Blair was given shadow cabinet posts by John Smith. Corbyn was a backbench MP throughout Smithís time as leader.

If you hate the Labour Partyís history so much why donít you and your lot join the SWP. Or the Brexit Party. 

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Offline Yorkykopite

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5696 on: June 15, 2019, 10:28:07 AM »

Oh aye?

Would that be this John Smith?...  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34244370

1993

- On BBC Radio 4's PM programme he (Corbyn) criticises Labour leader John Smith for "failing to articulate the views of the mass of the people".

Islington Labour councillor Greg Hayman tells the Islington Gazette: "It is typical of Jeremy to put the boot into the leadership when John Smith is 20 points ahead in the opinion polls."




You can do one claiming John Smith as one of yours you fucking cuckoo.

A good reminder.

Corbyn has opposed and hated every Labour Party leader, including Kinnock and Smith.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5697 on: June 15, 2019, 11:28:20 AM »
I could even put it that you are a perfect example of why this party should split apart right now,  far too many people dont really give a shit about the state of this country they just want their dream of a perfect leader who suits their narrow viewpoint of how this party should be led
The fucking irony.
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5698 on: June 15, 2019, 11:56:56 AM »
The fucking irony.


Tou-fucking-chť
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Offline Mutton Geoff

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5699 on: June 15, 2019, 07:49:36 PM »
The fucking irony.

Tou-fucking-chť

Preferred Morcambe and Wise as a double act dam sight funnier, and just for clarity Corbyn is a long way from my perfect leader , it is the post of democratically elected leader i defend not the person, with one caviat (unless they take us into a war.)

You will never understand my point of view so leave it at that.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5700 on: June 15, 2019, 09:55:34 PM »
You will never understand my point of view so leave it at that.

Probably because it's always changing. Sometimes three or four times a day.

The only consistent position you seem to hold is one of being pissed off with everyone else.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5701 on: June 15, 2019, 10:31:32 PM »
Probably because it's always changing. Sometimes three or four times a day.

The only consistent position you seem to hold is one of being pissed off with everyone else.

For a writer who does research  you have a poor memory i have always believed having been elected twice in fair democratic elections that Corbyn has a right to be leader, doesnt mean i like the guy personally, but he has the job just as much as i always though we chose the wrong Miliband but Ed won the right to lead the party.

You either believe in the party system or you dont or to put it another way you either. believe in democracy or you dont. Corbyn didnt make the rules he won within the rules.

As a side issue i believe the members have as much right to elect the leader as the PLP if not more,  there the ones out all the time acting as the foot soldiers.

I also agree with FS's prediction that Corbyn never had a chance to succeed in the present political and media climate.

Take from that as you want and spin it as you please. I am past caring.
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5702 on: June 16, 2019, 12:44:43 AM »
For a writer who does research  you have a poor memory i have always believed having been elected twice in fair democratic elections that Corbyn has a right to be leader, doesnt mean i like the guy personally, but he has the job just as much as i always though we chose the wrong Miliband but Ed won the right to lead the party.

You either believe in the party system or you dont or to put it another way you either. believe in democracy or you dont. Corbyn didnt make the rules he won within the rules.

As a side issue i believe the members have as much right to elect the leader as the PLP if not more,  there the ones out all the time acting as the foot soldiers.

I also agree with FS's prediction that Corbyn never had a chance to succeed in the present political and media climate.

Take from that as you want and spin it as you please. I am past caring.

The point of the leadership election is to select the right leader. It has been modified over time to reflect changes in the party make up. The benefit of the PLP having a large day is that their concern is to select someone who is electable.

The method of electing the leader of any party is not democratic and it’s not ‘fair’. The fairest and most sensible  way to elect the leader of the party in parliament would be to poll the elected MPs.

The particular nature of the Labour Party led to the Unions (the largest founders of the party) having a vote on the process. There was then a concerted effort by the left of the party to get one man one vote because that would allow the activists to push for a more hard left leader. I’ve posted a link to a dramatised documentary about it few times. That was defeated but eventually the voting methodology was changed and membership was opened up to the 3 pounders. That creates a real problem as the membership tends to be more radical than Labour voters and are likely to select a candidate that suits them but is unelectable in a general election.

It is fairly clear that the current arrangements have now twice resulted in a leader who is fucking useless and even against the worst PM in living memory was unelectable.

Do us a favour and don’t insult our intelligence. You don’t give a fuck about due process. You’re defending an aberration in the leadership election process that resulted in the wrong leader. If the selection process results in a leader that wants Brexit and who makes the Labour Party unelectable you change the fucking process. Is that so hard to understand. 

You say that the members deserve more of a say. Why?  Labour is meant to be a socialist party not a private members club. I’d probably be better off under a Tory government but my socialism isn’t about getting what I want, it’s about doing things for other people in the cause of social justice.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 12:48:11 AM by Alan_X »
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5703 on: June 16, 2019, 03:23:46 AM »
For a writer who does research  you have a poor memory i have always believed having been elected twice in fair democratic elections that Corbyn has a right to be leader, doesnt mean i like the guy personally, but he has the job just as much as i always though we chose the wrong Miliband but Ed won the right to lead the party.

You either believe in the party system or you dont or to put it another way you either. believe in democracy or you dont. Corbyn didnt make the rules he won within the rules.

As a side issue i believe the members have as much right to elect the leader as the PLP if not more,  there the ones out all the time acting as the foot soldiers.

I also agree with FS's prediction that Corbyn never had a chance to succeed in the present political and media climate.

Take from that as you want and spin it as you please. I am past caring.

I would agree that you have been consistent in your position that Corbyn is the democratic choice of the members. I would also note that you have also been consistent in your belief that any kind of Labour is better than a Tory government.

The conundrum presents itself that the leadership of Corbyn is perpetuating the most incompetent Tory government, possibly ever. His long held view actively enables their agenda for Brexit, a policy that will fall hardest upon the working class. In the unlikely event that he wins a general election after Brexit, he will be forced to beg the US (among others) for a trade policy and become a Labour Prime Minister forced to auction off the NHS to their interests. There will be no money for any ambitious social programs, merely a government term - probably short - where he becomes the poster boy for a disastrous recession.

It may have been closer than many thought likely, but he came second to these incompetent Tories in 2017, after seven years of brutal austerity imposed by them. The only consolation prize for second place is to have the opportunity to hold the government to full account, a responsibility at which he has failed miserably. There is no serious polling evidence that if a general election were held now, he could win that either - almost certainly losing to a fascist coalition of Faragists and the most rabid of Tories. Through spectacularly misjudged fence sitting, he has resurrected the Liberal Democrat party to the point that they are out-polling Labour, and in a general election, be likely to split off left-leaning voters necessary to form a Labour government. There is no evidence he has managed to make the necessary impact on Scotland, which has always been integral to forming workable government majorities for Labour. He does not attract voters from the centre who may have previously voted LibDem or Tory, also required to make a working majority of sufficient size to be a radical party of government.

It is all very well to blame the media, but the world is thus, and I'm afraid every Labour leader has had to deal with it. If it is harder for Corbyn (and he must take responsibility for the baggage he has created himself, which is added to the usual fabrications aimed at a Labour leader) then crying about it does not get anyone elected. It has to be dealt with whether this feels dirty or not, because not to do so keeps the Tories in power.

In short, he looks unelectable, and even if he managed to scrape a tiny majority, because of his support for Brexit, would preside over the following economic disaster. (Note that the WA renegotiation he aspires to is as unicorn-filled as the Tory Brexit fantasy renegotiations).

So which position would you consider paramount? Getting rid of the Tories or respecting the members' decision?
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5704 on: June 16, 2019, 04:43:04 AM »
This is kind of what a Parliament would look like with current polling, including comparison to situation after 2017 election and what things look like right now. It's by Ian Warren, who does polling stuff for Labour, so it'll be a bit more thought through than feeding stuff through Flavible and Electoral Calculus calculators. That said, hugely volatile and just for illustration.



Amusingly, Johnson would lose his seat in such a parliament if he weren't to make a deal with the Brexit party. Any surprises that there's already rumours that he's considering standing in Henley again next election?

Point raised by other ex-Labour election strategists is that, for all the shifting, there's a certain consistency to the vote shares with Brexit Party + Tories and Labour + Lib Dems. What could happen, without some major shifts - possible one is the Tory leadership election, is that the argument "they can't win here" does a full reverse on the Tories and Labour in places (as happened in Scotland) so the issue compounds.

I don't buy into the idea that Corbyn doesn't/didn't have a chance. He had a very good 2017 election campaign, carefully managed and skillfully handled to minimise his negative points, and Labour managed to convince some 'leave' voters that Labour was a 'leave' party and a lot of 'remain' voters that Labour didn't really mean it. Since then, though, he's tried to stick with that approach to the point where, no matter what he says or the fudges made, half the 2017 Labour vote has decided that he can't be relied upon to deliver what they want. That's a choice Corbyn has made. The argument that pushing domestic policy as a priority is worthwhile and will help bring the old Labour coalition back together is a good one. Slight problem with it is that the coming together seems only likely to happen after Brexit is resolved. And we're not even at the beginning of that process yet. Up to him whether he wants to shift Labour to a different approach. From the way some talk about him, he's a modern Unlucky Alf, who just ends up having accidents happen to him, or the poor senile king with a terrible taste in advisors rather than the leader of the Labour party, with slates of candidates elected to positions just to support him, and fully able to change how Labour approaches things.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 04:45:55 AM by Zeb »
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5705 on: June 16, 2019, 06:42:32 AM »
This is kind of what a Parliament would look like with current polling, including comparison to situation after 2017 election and what things look like right now. It's by Ian Warren, who does polling stuff for Labour, so it'll be a bit more thought through than feeding stuff through Flavible and Electoral Calculus calculators. That said, hugely volatile and just for illustration.



Amusingly, Johnson would lose his seat in such a parliament if he weren't to make a deal with the Brexit party. Any surprises that there's already rumours that he's considering standing in Henley again next election?

Point raised by other ex-Labour election strategists is that, for all the shifting, there's a certain consistency to the vote shares with Brexit Party + Tories and Labour + Lib Dems. What could happen, without some major shifts - possible one is the Tory leadership election, is that the argument "they can't win here" does a full reverse on the Tories and Labour in places (as happened in Scotland) so the issue compounds.

I don't buy into the idea that Corbyn doesn't/didn't have a chance. He had a very good 2017 election campaign, carefully managed and skillfully handled to minimise his negative points, and Labour managed to convince some 'leave' voters that Labour was a 'leave' party and a lot of 'remain' voters that Labour didn't really mean it. Since then, though, he's tried to stick with that approach to the point where, no matter what he says or the fudges made, half the 2017 Labour vote has decided that he can't be relied upon to deliver what they want. That's a choice Corbyn has made. The argument that pushing domestic policy as a priority is worthwhile and will help bring the old Labour coalition back together is a good one. Slight problem with it is that the coming together seems only likely to happen after Brexit is resolved. And we're not even at the beginning of that process yet. Up to him whether he wants to shift Labour to a different approach. From the way some talk about him, he's a modern Unlucky Alf, who just ends up having accidents happen to him, or the poor senile king with a terrible taste in advisors rather than the leader of the Labour party, with slates of candidates elected to positions just to support him, and fully able to change how Labour approaches things.

You look at that and the only hope is that there will be some levelling out at an election but it could be worse than that as you say. We could be facing a Faragist coalition if Corbyn gets his way and thereís an election.
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Offline Zeb

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5706 on: June 16, 2019, 07:29:35 AM »
You look at that and the only hope is that there will be some levelling out at an election but it could be worse than that as you say. We could be facing a Faragist coalition if Corbyn gets his way and thereís an election.

Real mess, yeah. Although mitigating factor to the idea of Farage leading a coalition is the damage it'd do to the Tories. Formalising it for an election would decrease that coalition's ability to hold/gain seats and so they'd probably end up short of a majority. Doing it after such an election would seem to be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives as a party, as well as risking that new coalition collapsing before it starts if Tory MPs decide the opposite benches look friendlier. (Canada is the example some political historians have been pointing to as an example of when the old party got eaten by the newer). Kind of why I wonder about the idea of the Tories calling an early general election. Corbyn doing it is a bit 'Mandy Rice-Davies applies', isn't it?
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5707 on: June 16, 2019, 09:29:32 AM »
Preferred Morcambe and Wise as a double act dam sight funnier, and just for clarity Corbyn is a long way from my perfect leader , it is the post of democratically elected leader i defend not the person, with one caviat (unless they take us into a war.)

You will never understand my point of view so leave it at that.

I understand the position you are taking but if that's the only caveat you're being awfully generous in how much you'd allow a leader to fuck up before canning them.

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5708 on: June 16, 2019, 04:16:52 PM »
Don't let anyone ever tell you New Labour were just as bad as the Tories. it's a lie.
https://twitter.com/labour_history/status/906441586183094279
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5709 on: June 16, 2019, 04:49:08 PM »
Don't let anyone ever tell you New Labour were just as bad as the Tories. it's a lie.
https://twitter.com/labour_history/status/906441586183094279
Quote
Bombing and murdering millions of people for oil and the US? Is that your labour ?

"But Iraq..."
"But tuition fees..."
"Chicken coup..."
"Neoliberals..."
"i just dont think (Lucas is) that type of player that Kenny wants"
Vidocq, 20 January 2011

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=267148.msg8032258#msg8032258

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5710 on: June 16, 2019, 05:06:44 PM »
"But Iraq..."
"But tuition fees..."
"Chicken coup..."
"Neoliberals..."
But but what about the Daniel Blakes of this world, people who refused to vote Labour couldn't have really cared about poverty in 2010 as it let in the Tories to attack the Daniel Blakes of this country, shame on them.
I Daniel Blake, directed by Ken Loach who refused to vote for Labour in 2010.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5711 on: June 16, 2019, 05:15:02 PM »
But but what about the Daniel Blakes of this world, people who refused to vote Labour couldn't have really cared about poverty in 2010 as it let in the Tories to attack the Daniel Blakes of this country, shame on them.
I Daniel Blake, directed by Ken Loach who refused to vote for Labour in 2010.

And people who voted non-Labour because of Iraq and then expect us to vote Labour despite Brexit. I respect the right of people to vote non-Labour for whatever reason they wish. But to then argue that not voting Labour because of Corbyn's Brexit position lets in the Tories is hypocrisy.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5712 on: June 16, 2019, 05:18:59 PM »
Westminster voting intention:

BREX: 24% (-2)
CON: 21% (+4)
LAB: 21% (+2)
LDEM: 19% (-3)

via YouGov
Chgs. w/ 10 Jun

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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5713 on: June 16, 2019, 05:26:57 PM »
Westminster voting intention:

BREX: 24% (-2)
CON: 21% (+4)
LAB: 21% (+2)
LDEM: 19% (-3)

via YouGov
Chgs. w/ 10 Jun


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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5714 on: June 16, 2019, 06:01:34 PM »
That's from today's Sunday Times. Not found tables for it yet but it's consistent, within margin of error, with the Yougov poll with Tories and Labour in third and fourth. Effectively a dead heat between four parties. Probably a Tory bounce to come under a new leader.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5715 on: June 16, 2019, 06:03:53 PM »
That's from today's Sunday Times. Not found tables for it yet but it's consistent, within margin of error, with the Yougov poll with Tories and Labour in third and fourth. Effectively a dead heat between four parties. Probably a Tory bounce to come under a new leader.
Difficult to predict how it turns out for seats I suspect.

The polls arenít really designed for 4 way splits...
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5716 on: June 16, 2019, 06:24:54 PM »
Difficult to predict how it turns out for seats I suspect.

The polls arenít really designed for 4 way splits...

Aye. The projection from Warren I posted will be close to as good as it'll get using ward and constituency level data but 30% vote share to win a seat would be a mess. Labour will have an advantage with their campaigning/get out the vote, but the impact of so many leaving Labour will pull that down, whereas Brexit Party are still at the 'lets hold leaflets out in the town centre on election day' level of campaigning. The Lib Dems can do themselves a lot of good running Chuka in Streatham, just purely from the number of Labour activists who will flood in rather than campaign more usefully somewhere else.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 06:26:28 PM by Zeb »
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5717 on: June 16, 2019, 07:18:42 PM »
And people who voted non-Labour because of Iraq and then expect us to vote Labour despite Brexit. I respect the right of people to vote non-Labour for whatever reason they wish. But to then argue that not voting Labour because of Corbyn's Brexit position lets in the Tories is hypocrisy.
Yeah I can understand people being angry over Iraq. it's when those same people start trashing Labours history then preaching to people about not caring about the poor and the sick etc I can't respect.
I was angry listening to Corbyns voice in the video of Blair hitting back, it's chilling. it becomes evil when you start to understand his intentions. there have been a few occasions thats made me loose all respect for Corbyn, ive no idea how people can believe he's a decent person, he claims he's all about bringing sides together but he's nothing more than a big shit stirrer who tells awful lies.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5718 on: June 16, 2019, 10:24:47 PM »
I would agree that you have been consistent in your position that Corbyn is the democratic choice of the members. I would also note that you have also been consistent in your belief that any kind of Labour is better than a Tory government.

The conundrum presents itself that the leadership of Corbyn is perpetuating the most incompetent Tory government, possibly ever. His long held view actively enables their agenda for Brexit, a policy that will fall hardest upon the working class. In the unlikely event that he wins a general election after Brexit, he will be forced to beg the US (among others) for a trade policy and become a Labour Prime Minister forced to auction off the NHS to their interests. There will be no money for any ambitious social programs, merely a government term - probably short - where he becomes the poster boy for a disastrous recession.

It may have been closer than many thought likely, but he came second to these incompetent Tories in 2017, after seven years of brutal austerity imposed by them. The only consolation prize for second place is to have the opportunity to hold the government to full account, a responsibility at which he has failed miserably. There is no serious polling evidence that if a general election were held now, he could win that either - almost certainly losing to a fascist coalition of Faragists and the most rabid of Tories. Through spectacularly misjudged fence sitting, he has resurrected the Liberal Democrat party to the point that they are out-polling Labour, and in a general election, be likely to split off left-leaning voters necessary to form a Labour government. There is no evidence he has managed to make the necessary impact on Scotland, which has always been integral to forming workable government majorities for Labour. He does not attract voters from the centre who may have previously voted LibDem or Tory, also required to make a working majority of sufficient size to be a radical party of government.

It is all very well to blame the media, but the world is thus, and I'm afraid every Labour leader has had to deal with it. If it is harder for Corbyn (and he must take responsibility for the baggage he has created himself, which is added to the usual fabrications aimed at a Labour leader) then crying about it does not get anyone elected. It has to be dealt with whether this feels dirty or not, because not to do so keeps the Tories in power.

In short, he looks unelectable, and even if he managed to scrape a tiny majority, because of his support for Brexit, would preside over the following economic disaster. (Note that the WA renegotiation he aspires to is as unicorn-filled as the Tory Brexit fantasy renegotiations).

So which position would you consider paramount? Getting rid of the Tories or respecting the members' decision?

Thanks for a more respectful and coherant reply than the one above you, although i think the members are the heartbeat of the party, the state this country is in getting rid of these tories has to be the paramount choice for me.

And if a party led by corbyn cannot do that then we need to look elsewhere maybe for a younger guy with no baggage.

 Its needs to be done in the right way though.
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Re: Geoff's Major GenderBenderLeaningToGruffnessThread
« Reply #5719 on: June 16, 2019, 10:30:54 PM »
The point of the leadership election is to select the right leader. It has been modified over time to reflect changes in the party make up. The benefit of the PLP having a large day is that their concern is to select someone who is electable.

The method of electing the leader of any party is not democratic and itís not Ďfairí. The fairest and most sensible  way to elect the leader of the party in parliament would be to poll the elected MPs.

The particular nature of the Labour Party led to the Unions (the largest founders of the party) having a vote on the process. There was then a concerted effort by the left of the party to get one man one vote because that would allow the activists to push for a more hard left leader. Iíve posted a link to a dramatised documentary about it few times. That was defeated but eventually the voting methodology was changed and membership was opened up to the 3 pounders. That creates a real problem as the membership tends to be more radical than Labour voters and are likely to select a candidate that suits them but is unelectable in a general election.

It is fairly clear that the current arrangements have now twice resulted in a leader who is fucking useless and even against the worst PM in living memory was unelectable.

Do us a favour and donít insult our intelligence. You donít give a fuck about due process. Youíre defending an aberration in the leadership election process that resulted in the wrong leader. If the selection process results in a leader that wants Brexit and who makes the Labour Party unelectable you change the fucking process. Is that so hard to understand. 

You say that the members deserve more of a say. Why?  Labour is meant to be a socialist party not a private members club. Iíd probably be better off under a Tory government but my socialism isnít about getting what I want, itís about doing things for other people in the cause of social justice.

Tell you what i will treat this and you in future with the respect you and this post merits :

PASS!
The National Pensioners Convention (NPC) is the principal organisation representing pensioners in the United Kingdom. It is made up of around 1,000 bodies representing 1.5 million members, organised into federal regional units.
The NPC was founded by former Transport and General Workers' Union trade union leader, Jack Jones in 1979