Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19  (Read 179718 times)

Offline drmick

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,540
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1280 on: March 3, 2019, 06:58:11 PM »
Played to par so still on plus 5 , the aways all look really winnable and I do think the league will be won or lost depending on the games at anfield and we can all play our parts in that
Yeah, but City gained on us.

Offline Malaysian Kopite

  • Feels shivers when he looks a Trquarista's...
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,184
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1281 on: March 3, 2019, 07:02:12 PM »
Yeah, but City gained on us.
Damn, forgot that. Was happy that we were at least still on track in the APLT
Football without fans is nothing.

We've won 18 titles, 5 European Cups, 7 FA Cups, but today must be the greatest victory of all.

Offline Prof

  • fessor Yaffle. Full tosser.
  • RAWK Scribe
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,705
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
    • The Alternative Premier League Table
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1282 on: March 3, 2019, 07:11:02 PM »





Online royhendohohohoho!

  • RAWK Staff
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 248,324
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1283 on: March 3, 2019, 08:12:55 PM »
Ta Prof :)
.

Offline Sharado

  • SAVAGE
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,105
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1284 on: March 3, 2019, 08:22:29 PM »
Have we got any par 1s left?
No heavy-metal football. Uninspiring team selections. Playing like a team closer to relegation worries

Offline MerrycrRhistmassed

  • Member of International Hill Climbers Group. Only gets happy endings at Christmas.
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,438
  • In the town where I was born
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1285 on: March 3, 2019, 08:23:17 PM »
Squeaky bum time?

Offline BoRed

  • BoRing
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,867
  • BoRac
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1286 on: March 3, 2019, 08:34:50 PM »
Have we got any par 1s left?

Newcastle away.

Offline Sharado

  • SAVAGE
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,105
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1287 on: March 3, 2019, 08:36:50 PM »
No heavy-metal football. Uninspiring team selections. Playing like a team closer to relegation worries

Offline Perth Red

  • Boys Pen
  • *
  • Posts: 13
  • Upside down and red all over
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1288 on: March 4, 2019, 12:43:43 AM »
In the 2011/12 season United led City by 1 point, 70 to 69, after 29 games. Arsenal a distant third. City went on to win it with the last gasp goal against QPR on goal difference! They both got to 89, still the highest ever attained by a losing side.
If my Maths is correct that means United got 19 points and City 20 from their final 9 games... which proves that the run in for the title is anything but simple and there are dropped points no matter how motivated you are!
This is still alive, anything can happen!
If I've told you once I've told you a million times, stop exaggerating!

Offline Hij

  • Literally Custom-titlely neglected for literally over a decade, Ruud.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 15,111
  • Justice for Anne Williams. Justice for the 96.
    • Grime Forum
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1289 on: March 4, 2019, 03:49:01 AM »
Puts it in perspective really. Created the model aiming for 90 points. We're finally well on course for 90 points. Might not be enough. It's cruel.

This season needs something mad at the end of it like us lifting the European Cup at the end of it instead ;D
Justice for Anne Williams. Justice for the 96. Justice for the Survivors.

Istanbul 2005. Athens 2007. Basel 2016. Kiev 2018. Madrid 2019.

Offline RooiBefok

  • (Crank) Minority Martyr, and Defender & Lover of The 5th Benitle. His most ardent fan. Adores him. No really, I think he's great. The best.
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 875
  • Perservate et Superate
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1290 on: March 4, 2019, 06:41:27 AM »
APLT Full Table : Matchweek 29
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline RooiBefok

  • (Crank) Minority Martyr, and Defender & Lover of The 5th Benitle. His most ardent fan. Adores him. No really, I think he's great. The best.
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 875
  • Perservate et Superate
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1291 on: March 4, 2019, 06:42:08 AM »
APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 29
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline RooiBefok

  • (Crank) Minority Martyr, and Defender & Lover of The 5th Benitle. His most ardent fan. Adores him. No really, I think he's great. The best.
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 875
  • Perservate et Superate
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1292 on: March 4, 2019, 06:43:08 AM »
APLT Actual + Revolving Par : Matchweek 29
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline RooiBefok

  • (Crank) Minority Martyr, and Defender & Lover of The 5th Benitle. His most ardent fan. Adores him. No really, I think he's great. The best.
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 875
  • Perservate et Superate
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1293 on: March 4, 2019, 06:43:49 AM »
LFC Current & Projected Form : Matchweek 29
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline Prof

  • fessor Yaffle. Full tosser.
  • RAWK Scribe
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,705
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
    • The Alternative Premier League Table
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1294 on: March 4, 2019, 08:20:53 AM »
Puts it in perspective really. Created the model aiming for 90 points. We're finally well on course for 90 points. Might not be enough. It's cruel.

This season needs something mad at the end of it like us lifting the European Cup at the end of it instead ;D
There are factors outside our control which is why points totals are always better targets than positions.

Most neutrals I know who don't want us to win say it's because they don't count man city winning as a real win.  Like it has an asterix next to it to say that it was won with doping.  The same applies to Chelsea's titles.

If we break the 90 points but don't win the title, I'll still be so proud of the team and this season we're having.

Online jingllebellc jingllebellc

  • Finding Brian hard to swallow. Definitely not Paula Nancy MIllstone Jennings of 37 Wasp Villas, Greenbridge, Essex, GB10 1LL. Or maybe. Who knows.....Finds it hard to choose between Jürgen's wurst and Fat Sam's sausage.
  • Lead Matchday Commentator
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 38,875
  • "I'm surprised they didn't charge me rent"
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1295 on: March 4, 2019, 08:29:36 AM »
Great sentiments Prof, it is amazing to think a team can get 90+ points and yet only finish second, but if we manage that we should still be proud of the team's effort.
"He's trying to get right away from football. I believe he went to Everton"

Offline Grobbelrevell

  • RAWK Scribe
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,125
  • Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry & ignorance
    • The Grobbelramble
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1296 on: March 4, 2019, 08:42:39 AM »
Great sentiments Prof, it is amazing to think a team can get 90+ points and yet only finish second, but if we manage that we should still be proud of the team's effort.

See Napoli last season. Finished on 91 points and still 4 off the top. Some labelled them 'bottlers' i'm sure, but they were incredibly good and just happened to be topped by an even better Juve side. The difference, arguably, is that we won't drop away to the extent that Napoli have from last season to this one.

That said, I don't want us to be remembered as good, but not quite good enough. It's still there for us, but we really need to start looking like the Liverpool we know we can be.
Twitter | Blog

TRADE COUNT: +19  /  SoS Member 6854

Offline MrButler

  • Anny Roader
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1297 on: March 4, 2019, 11:57:11 AM »
Would be interesting to see the numbers on how  often the predicted par 1 games actually end up in the team drawing? I’m worried that City potentially have three ‘chances’ to gain points on us with their par 1 opportunities.

Offline aggerdid

  • Reads the subtitles on "Queer as Folk" from right to left
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,147
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1298 on: March 4, 2019, 12:20:49 PM »
Would be interesting to see the numbers on how  often the predicted par 1 games actually end up in the team drawing? I’m worried that City potentially have three ‘chances’ to gain points on us with their par 1 opportunities.
analysis of the analysis. Rawkception
We must embrace pain and burn it as fuel for our journey - Kenji Miyazawa

Offline MerseysideBrum

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,291
  • Show them the way to go ome
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1299 on: March 4, 2019, 12:51:59 PM »
Current APLT numbers:

Liverpool: 5
City: 2
Spurs: -8
United: -9
Chelsea: -12
Arsenal: -12

Matchday 30:

Liverpool: 5 Burnley (H)  Par 3 (Win 5, Draw 3, Lose 2)
City: 2 Watford (H) Par 3 (Win 2, Draw 0, Lose -1)
Spurs: -8 Southampton (A) Par 3 (Win -8, Draw -9, Lose -11)
United: -9 Arsenal (A) Par 1 (Win -7, Draw -9, Lose -10)
Chelsea: -12 Wolves (H) Par 3 (Win -12, Draw -14, Lose -15)
Arsenal: -12 United (H) Par 3 (Win -12, Draw -14, Lose -15)

So City took their chance to gain on APLT while Liverpool didn't which means it's getting closer at the top of the APLT. Both Liverpool and City have must win home games next weekend with any slip ups now having large consequences.  Spurs have a reasonably hard away game considering their form and they need to win to avoid possibly dropping down to 4th in the APLT for the first time since GW11. United can really assert themselves as top 4 candidates with a win away at Arsenal. Arsenal and Chelsea have hard home games that they must win to stay in the top 4 race.
The reds are coming up the hill boys.

Online royhendohohohoho!

  • RAWK Staff
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 248,324
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1300 on: March 4, 2019, 01:17:53 PM »
We're pretty much impossible to beat at this point, certainly in the league. It'll go to the wire this, even if City's form remains strong.
.

Offline "We worship you, O Brian, who are Lord over us all!"

  • Gordon's ALIVE? Practically Bear Grylls. Backwards Bluesman Bastard.
  • RAWK Scribe
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 42,737
  • Super Title: Feedback Tourist #4
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1301 on: March 4, 2019, 02:26:30 PM »
Current APLT numbers:

Liverpool: 5
City: 2
Spurs: -8
United: -9
Chelsea: -12
Arsenal: -12

Matchday 30:

Liverpool: 5 Burnley (H)  Par 3 (Win 5, Draw 3, Lose 2)
City: 2 Watford (H) Par 3 (Win 2, Draw 0, Lose -1)
Spurs: -8 Southampton (A) Par 3 (Win -8, Draw -9, Lose -11)
United: -9 Arsenal (A) Par 1 (Win -7, Draw -9, Lose -10)
Chelsea: -12 Wolves (H) Par 3 (Win -12, Draw -14, Lose -15)
Arsenal: -12 United (H) Par 3 (Win -12, Draw -14, Lose -15)

So City took their chance to gain on APLT while Liverpool didn't which means it's getting closer at the top of the APLT. Both Liverpool and City have must win home games next weekend with any slip ups now having large consequences.  Spurs have a reasonably hard away game considering their form and they need to win to avoid possibly dropping down to 4th in the APLT for the first time since GW11. United can really assert themselves as top 4 candidates with a win away at Arsenal. Arsenal and Chelsea have hard home games that they must win to stay in the top 4 race.

Given recent form, I'd say a win for Manchester Untied and they are nailed on for top four, and third is very much in reach. I think that fourth spot is a three way fight.

Online Cheshire_Cat

  • Anny Roader
  • ****
  • Posts: 269
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1302 on: March 4, 2019, 06:14:58 PM »
I got a bit bored this afternoon, so I thought I'd have a look at the best ever Premier League seasons on the APLT system.

There are only 7 seasons where the winners have got 90 or more points. The best after City's 2018 season is Chelsea in 2005 at 95 points and then Chelsea in 2017 at 93 points. Nobody else has got over 91.

I don't know what to deduce from the graph, but our big red line looks quite healthy in relation to all the others. That makes me quite happy. Fuck off Everton!

And sorry my graphs aren't as nice as Profs.

Online dudleyred

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,114
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1303 on: March 4, 2019, 06:18:05 PM »
I got a bit bored this afternoon, so I thought I'd have a look at the best ever Premier League seasons on the APLT system.

There are only 7 seasons where the winners have got 90 or more points. The best after City's 2018 season is Chelsea in 2005 at 95 points and then Chelsea in 2017 at 93 points. Nobody else has got over 91.

I don't know what to deduce from the graph, but our big red line looks quite healthy in relation to all the others. That makes me quite happy. Fuck off Everton!

And sorry my graphs aren't as nice as Profs.

Think it says we’re one hell of a football team and whilst people can be disappointed with recent results they need to get a bit of perspective and calm down

Good work on the graph. Cheers for posting


Online Cheshire_Cat

  • Anny Roader
  • ****
  • Posts: 269
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1304 on: March 4, 2019, 06:20:41 PM »
I also thought I'd have a look at the 2012 title race between City and United to see how that looked on an APLT graph.

I think it just emphasises that when two teams are neck and neck for the title the pressure can do funny things ...

Offline G Richards

  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 703
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1305 on: March 4, 2019, 06:23:32 PM »
It is possible that Man City could win all nine remaining games and render what we do irrelevant in the title race from this point on. However, I think that scenario is unlikely. The most likely outcome is they will drop points in one, two, or three more fixtures. Hoping for them to drop points in four or more of the remaining nine games seems a fool's errand, given the form they are in.

My best guess is we are going to need eight wins and a draw to win the league. It's vital that we keep winning so that we can capitalize on any dropped points by them.   

Online Cheshire_Cat

  • Anny Roader
  • ****
  • Posts: 269
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1306 on: March 4, 2019, 06:25:30 PM »
Think it says we’re one hell of a football team and whilst people can be disappointed with recent results they need to get a bit of perspective and calm down

Good work on the graph. Cheers for posting



I think you're right. Whether we win the league or not, we could end up with the 2nd (or 3rd) best points haul ever. That's some achievement ... whatever happens.

Offline drmick

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,540
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1307 on: March 4, 2019, 08:02:06 PM »
I got a bit bored this afternoon, so I thought I'd have a look at the best ever Premier League seasons on the APLT system.

There are only 7 seasons where the winners have got 90 or more points. The best after City's 2018 season is Chelsea in 2005 at 95 points and then Chelsea in 2017 at 93 points. Nobody else has got over 91.

I don't know what to deduce from the graph, but our big red line looks quite healthy in relation to all the others. That makes me quite happy. Fuck off Everton!

And sorry my graphs aren't as nice as Profs.

You're assuming we finish above 89 points!

Offline scalatore

  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 759
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1308 on: March 4, 2019, 09:28:34 PM »
I got a bit bored this afternoon, so I thought I'd have a look at the best ever Premier League seasons on the APLT system.

There are only 7 seasons where the winners have got 90 or more points. The best after City's 2018 season is Chelsea in 2005 at 95 points and then Chelsea in 2017 at 93 points. Nobody else has got over 91.

I don't know what to deduce from the graph, but our big red line looks quite healthy in relation to all the others. That makes me quite happy. Fuck off Everton!

And sorry my graphs aren't as nice as Profs.
Cheers for both posts, interesting to look at. Not much of a pattern there.

No idea what's going to happen this season, but the APLT is definitely better viewing than the real table right now. I still think that keeping the red line straight and true from here on out will result in the title. Could do with City dropping some points soon to calm my nerves though.

Offline Mr_Shane

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,301
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1309 on: March 4, 2019, 10:53:30 PM »
We only have one more Par 1 - newcastle

City have 3, Burnley, Palace and Man Utd. But they play all three in the space of two weeks.

Its really going to go to the wire methinks

Offline latortuga

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,308
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1310 on: March 4, 2019, 11:22:08 PM »
Would be interesting to see the numbers on how  often the predicted par 1 games actually end up in the team drawing? I’m worried that City potentially have three ‘chances’ to gain points on us with their par 1 opportunities.

What about the 6 chances they have to lose ground on us, or have they already got the points for those? :)

Offline Sammy5IsAlive

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,156
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1311 on: March 5, 2019, 01:21:21 AM »
Both of those graphs are really interesting Cheshire Cat - thanks for posting.

If I was going to take away something encouraging from them it would be that it seems that apart from a crazy season from United in 2000 nobody has managed a 'consecutive run' in APLT terms of more than 4 points improvement. If we were to keep our line flat, City's 'run' from their starting point at -2 would have to be a 7 point improvement.

Offline MerrycrRhistmassed

  • Member of International Hill Climbers Group. Only gets happy endings at Christmas.
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,438
  • In the town where I was born
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1312 on: March 5, 2019, 06:10:33 AM »
The first few games of the season are just building foundations. The last games of the season match the "real" table. At what point is the APLT most statistically/predictively relevant? Is it now?

Offline markedasred

  • Knowing me, Knowing you... ahaaa!!! Resident Large Canine.
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,267
  • No Murdoch in our house
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1313 on: March 5, 2019, 10:19:21 AM »


Its really going to go to the wire methinks
"Ayo, lesson here, Bey. You come at the king, you best not miss"
"For those of you watching in black and white, Liverpool are the team with the ball"

Offline MrButler

  • Anny Roader
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1314 on: March 5, 2019, 04:14:40 PM »
Ok because I’m sad I worked out that of the PAR1 games highlighted in red 6 of 11 have been correct, in that it correctly identified a game were we dropped points.

Interestingly, I looked up City’s too. And it has correctly identified 4 of 9.

Liverpool have 1 PAR1 game remaining, City have 3 remaining.

All to play for...!

Offline Sharado

  • SAVAGE
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,105
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1315 on: March 5, 2019, 04:28:04 PM »
"Ayo, lesson here, Bey. You come at the king, you best not miss"

Hey, hey, hey. A life. A life, Jimmy, you know what that is? It's the shit that happens while you're waiting for moments that never come.
No heavy-metal football. Uninspiring team selections. Playing like a team closer to relegation worries

Offline drmick

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,540
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1316 on: March 5, 2019, 05:41:10 PM »
Both of those graphs are really interesting Cheshire Cat - thanks for posting.

If I was going to take away something encouraging from them it would be that it seems that apart from a crazy season from United in 2000 nobody has managed a 'consecutive run' in APLT terms of more than 4 points improvement. If we were to keep our line flat, City's 'run' from their starting point at -2 would have to be a 7 point improvement.
That par run for LFC is 8 wins and 1 draw though. That's realistically not happening.

Offline courty61

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,169
  • Never Buy The S*n
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1317 on: March 5, 2019, 07:00:55 PM »
That par run for LFC is 8 wins and 1 draw though. That's realistically not happening.

Why not?
77, 78, 81, 84, 05, 19

Offline mercurial

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,120
  • Lost my mind, let me know if you spot it
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1318 on: March 5, 2019, 07:56:17 PM »
Do we have any correlation of a close title race and ppg? Do teams improve ppg in a close ran race? Something like last 10 relative to rest of the campaign. I would be interested to see it across different leagues. The data would be interesting where a title race us on with 3 points difference and 10 games to play, teams would have a pattern across leagues I am thinking.
« Last Edit: March 5, 2019, 07:59:45 PM by mercurial »
Kenny: "We play the way we want to play. We play to the style that suits us, no disrespect to other clubs but we don't focus on anybody else"

Offline keyop

  • Believer
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,906
  • Always eleven, acting as one.
Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1319 on: March 5, 2019, 09:01:31 PM »
Most neutrals I know who don't want us to win say it's because they don't count man city winning as a real win.  Like it has an asterix next to it to say that it was won with doping.  The same applies to Chelsea's titles.

Very true. I think its also because most people know that after finally winning the title after such a long time, the pressure would be off in subsequent seasons, and with Klopp and this squad we could do it again.
I've got OCD, but I prefer to call it CDO so it's in alphabetical order.