Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19  (Read 176106 times)

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1320 on: March 5, 2019, 09:04:55 PM »
Why not?
[/quote
Why not?

Because by every measure you can use to predict results LFC will not attain 25 out of 27 points.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1321 on: March 5, 2019, 09:09:43 PM »


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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1322 on: March 5, 2019, 09:12:52 PM »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1323 on: March 5, 2019, 10:17:44 PM »
I uploaded those two visuals in a hurry earlier, but now I've got time to comment a bit too.

I think they both show that so far we've been pretty consistent with our results in relation to par.  We've had three fixtures with results below par, two of which were against Man City.  Leicester at home was the other.

No matter what happens from now, we've had a remarkable season so far, and better than I would have predicted before the season started.  Man City have dropped more points than us despite playing to par in both games against us.  It could well end up being those two results being the difference if they go on to win.

As for the recent 'analysis' by the media... Draws away at West Ham, Man Utd and Everton are all good results.  On another day, any of those could have been wins which shows just how strong we are.  We're one heck of a side, and no one will convince me otherwise.

Now let's make sure if we don't win the title, we make Man City have to win it from here!

Offline MrButler

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1324 on: March 6, 2019, 12:46:50 PM »



So with this in mind... with quick maths (might be wrong):

City are averaging 1.77 PPG in PAR 1 games and 2.75 in PAR 3 games
LFC are averaging 1.81 PPG in PAR 1 games and 2.77 in PAR 3 games

Taking into account how many PAR 1 and PAR 3 games are left for each team and doing the numbers, it forecasts both teams to end up on 93 points!

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1325 on: March 6, 2019, 05:59:09 PM »
So with this in mind... with quick maths (might be wrong):

City are averaging 1.77 PPG in PAR 1 games and 2.75 in PAR 3 games
LFC are averaging 1.81 PPG in PAR 1 games and 2.77 in PAR 3 games

Taking into account how many PAR 1 and PAR 3 games are left for each team and doing the numbers, it forecasts both teams to end up on 93 points!
Thanks. That's very interesting.  It kinda brings back the idea of having a few par 2s in place of the "easier" par 1s

Offline a treeless whopper

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1326 on: March 6, 2019, 10:53:15 PM »
So with this in mind... with quick maths (might be wrong):

City are averaging 1.77 PPG in PAR 1 games and 2.75 in PAR 3 games
LFC are averaging 1.81 PPG in PAR 1 games and 2.77 in PAR 3 games

Taking into account how many PAR 1 and PAR 3 games are left for each team and doing the numbers, it forecasts both teams to end up on 93 points!

Whoop. Thats what I predicted.

Albeit losing the league on goal difference? Ouch.

Offline latortuga

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1327 on: March 8, 2019, 07:16:59 AM »
Whoop. Thats what I predicted.

Albeit losing the league on goal difference? Ouch.

Given our greater number of par 3's left you could theorise that we have a greater chance of closing the current difference of 6 in goal difference.  Would only take 1 decent scoreline to tighten that gap on City.

That, or it's thrashing Wolves on the last day. ;D


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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1328 on: March 8, 2019, 07:23:52 AM »
Given our greater number of par 3's left you could theorise that we have a greater chance of closing the current difference of 6 in goal difference.  Would only take 1 decent scoreline to tighten that gap on City.

That, or it's thrashing Wolves on the last day. ;D



Id be confident of closing that gap if City didnt have Fulham and Cardiff still to play.

Offline Petadroli

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1329 on: March 8, 2019, 08:05:06 AM »
Id be confident of closing that gap if City didnt have Fulham and Cardiff still to play.

We play those two as well and Huddersfield at home. But I think this is stupid talk to be honest, the most important thing for us is to beat all of those three teams and get 9 points on the board. Goal difference rarely matters, and should we bridge the gap to City points-wise, the goal differences will be close.
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Offline MrButler

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1330 on: March 8, 2019, 12:54:58 PM »
Thanks. That's very interesting.  It kinda brings back the idea of having a few par 2s in place of the "easier" par 1s

There is two ways of looking at it in my mind.

Either that City have more of the difficult/PAR1 games - I had obviously been projecting an additional 1.77 points each time they played one, even if they do draw, that falls below this average resulting in a huge dent to the projected 93 points.

Or alternatively, you look at it in the other way, in that City have the more 'opportunities'. Get 3 points in even one of those PAR 1 games and it would make a huge difference to their title chase.

Liverpool by contrast basically have no margin for error. They must steam roll the PAR3 games. Certainly less margin for error I would say.

I know I'm preaching to the converted with you Prof as you obviously designed the thing, more for people with a general interest in the thread. Funny things are going to happen in this run in though, we may well be doing revised maths after each game.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1331 on: March 8, 2019, 01:04:08 PM »

Taking into account how many PAR 1 and PAR 3 games are left for each team and doing the numbers, it forecasts both teams to end up on 93 points!

Please no. My heart wouldn't be able to handle that
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1332 on: March 11, 2019, 06:40:08 AM »
APLT Full Table : Matchweek 30
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1333 on: March 11, 2019, 06:40:53 AM »
APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 30
« Last Edit: March 11, 2019, 08:30:59 AM by RooiBefok »
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Offline RooiBefok

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1334 on: March 11, 2019, 06:41:36 AM »
APLT Actual + Revolving Par : Matchweek 30
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1335 on: March 11, 2019, 06:42:18 AM »
LFC Current & Projected Form : Matchweek 30
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Offline goalrushatgoodison

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1336 on: March 11, 2019, 07:57:14 AM »
There is two ways of looking at it in my mind.

Either that City have more of the difficult/PAR1 games - I had obviously been projecting an additional 1.77 points each time they played one, even if they do draw, that falls below this average resulting in a huge dent to the projected 93 points.

Or alternatively, you look at it in the other way, in that City have the more 'opportunities'. Get 3 points in even one of those PAR 1 games and it would make a huge difference to their title chase.

Liverpool by contrast basically have no margin for error. They must steam roll the PAR3 games. Certainly less margin for error I would say.

I know I'm preaching to the converted with you Prof as you obviously designed the thing, more for people with a general interest in the thread. Funny things are going to happen in this run in though, we may well be doing revised maths after each game.

Nah, there is only one way of looking at it. City have harder run in  - that's whole function of the APLT, to put the actual table into some sort of perspective.

It's not an exact science. Burnley, for instance, were a top ten side last year but struggling this year to avoid relegation which distorts the model somewhat. However, in the round, it's an extremly effective and informative guide to the positions of the contenders in relation to the difficulties of the games they have played to date.

Normally I would say that, when assessing a teams chances of winning the title with eight games to go, its slightly preferable to be three points clear in the APLT than 1 point  clear in the real table. The caveat this year is that City are a truly exceptional side and could well win every one of thier eight remaining games. I think that's unlikely but only a fool would rule it out.

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Offline Yosser0_0

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1337 on: March 11, 2019, 09:59:38 AM »
I sit next to an Arsenal fan at work and we were discussing the top four permutations for this season and I showed him a couple of the prediction tables on here. Its remarkable to think that currently it looks like teams will need 80+ points to make it into the top four and possibly 90+ to get to second. That's 10 points more than the 17-18 season and 10 to 15 points more than the 15-16 season. The standard is incredible, which I think is reflected by the strong performances of the English teams in Europe against teams from other leagues whose levels must be starting to fall behind to a certain extent. 
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Offline MrButler

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1338 on: March 11, 2019, 11:25:59 AM »
Nah, there is only one way of looking at it. City have harder run in  - that's whole function of the APLT, to put the actual table into some sort of perspective.

It's not an exact science. Burnley, for instance, were a top ten side last year but struggling this year to avoid relegation which distorts the model somewhat. However, in the round, it's an extremly effective and informative guide to the positions of the contenders in relation to the difficulties of the games they have played to date.

Normally I would say that, when assessing a teams chances of winning the title with eight games to go, its slightly preferable to be three points clear in the APLT than 1 point  clear in the real table. The caveat this year is that City are a truly exceptional side and could well win every one of thier eight remaining games. I think that's unlikely but only a fool would rule it out.



Yeah, I understand what this model is telling us in black and white but as you finished your post with, City are more than capable of ripping up what the model tells us. We know it isn’t going to be that straightforward.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1339 on: March 11, 2019, 06:39:59 PM »





Offline Ray K

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1340 on: March 11, 2019, 07:05:45 PM »



That Spurs trendline though   :o
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Offline Ghost Town

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1341 on: March 11, 2019, 07:36:47 PM »
That Spurs trendline though   :o
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1342 on: March 11, 2019, 07:40:34 PM »



It's too close for comfort as we head into the closing straight



Quote

Incredibe how close this is. Just that one extra point we lost at home...
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1343 on: March 11, 2019, 07:42:55 PM »
Imagine if Mahrez had scored that pen though
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Offline G Richards

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1344 on: March 11, 2019, 08:50:51 PM »
Thank you for continuing to plot the graph and put this up. I knew we both held course after the weekend, but it encourages me to see the APLT! The finish line is one game closer and we are holding steady.

It is going to be so close, and I think if we can stay in touch in the real table, then by the time they have a run that includes Crystal Palace, Spurs and Man Utd, we might edge ahead.

The standard has been incredible and it very much looks like two are going for the title, and four are going for the remaining two CL spots. Spurs have faded badly and they are going to have to regroup and beat Man City to stave off a strong challenge for their top four spot!

Offline Grobbelrevell

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1345 on: March 12, 2019, 08:47:56 AM »
It is going to be so close, and I think if we can stay in touch in the real table, then by the time they have a run that includes Crystal Palace, Spurs and Man Utd, we might edge ahead.

This is where I'm at as well. Our next four are huge, in that it contains probably our toughest three remaining fixtures, as City play 14th, 18th and 19th respectively - and then it flips as City enter their tough run. If we can just get through these next four in step with them we could potentially find ourselves 2 games ahead but 5 points clear, and that's when I think you'll see the pressure really on them, and then it will be extremely interesting to see how they handle it heading into that tough spell - alongside CL fixtures as well. If you're City, you're hoping to extend your lead and essentially win it in this next four. If we win them I think we win the league, I really do. That's easier said than done, but absolutely not impossible.

As a slight aside, I have absolutely no idea where Cardiff gets slotted in for them, assuming they beat Swansea in the cup.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 08:56:01 AM by Grobbelrevell »
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1346 on: March 12, 2019, 08:52:43 AM »
Wow, Spurs are in a freefall
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Offline royhendo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1347 on: March 12, 2019, 09:00:10 AM »
Thanks again Prof :)
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Offline BoRed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1348 on: March 12, 2019, 09:55:09 AM »
As a slight aside, I have absolutely no idea where Cardiff gets slotted in for them, assuming they beat Swansea in the cup.

2nd or 3rd of April.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1349 on: March 12, 2019, 06:42:47 PM »
RAPLT: Week 30

Bottom 7


All teams below 0 points


3 Game Moving Average
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 06:48:47 PM by JCB »

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1350 on: March 12, 2019, 08:37:48 PM »
RAPLT: Week 30

Bottom 7


All teams below 0 points


3 Game Moving Average


Cheers for this. In the real table Cardiff are only 2 points from safety, but 7 points on this.

Everton sitting in or around the 38 point line for a while now.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1351 on: March 13, 2019, 08:23:03 AM »
Cheers for this. In the real table Cardiff are only 2 points from safety, but 7 points on this.

Four of Cardiff's last eight are against top six sides. They have to go to Burnley too, so they'll probably need to win there to have a chance of staying up.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1352 on: March 17, 2019, 06:27:20 PM »




« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 10:06:34 PM by Prof »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1353 on: March 17, 2019, 06:33:38 PM »
Fucking hell Spurs have thrown themselves off a cliff!!

Nice steady straight line there for the Redmen, top of the league again for at least 2wks then the shit really starts to hit the fan.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1354 on: March 17, 2019, 06:56:17 PM »
Weve only dropped points to par three times this season..


That’s incredible (as are city )
« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 07:08:34 PM by Preserved for posterity. »
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1355 on: March 17, 2019, 06:59:27 PM »

Thanks, Prof. Our away form is mint.

Quick note: The running total is some ways behind. :)

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1356 on: March 17, 2019, 07:40:03 PM »
Thanks Prof :)
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1357 on: March 17, 2019, 07:42:07 PM »
Still looking pretty good. Cheers, Prof.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1358 on: March 17, 2019, 10:01:07 PM »
Thanks, Prof. Our away form is mint.

Quick note: The running total is some ways behind. :)
Ah yes, thanks

I didn't even look at it, just uploaded it

I'll have to work out what's broken on that view

Edit: nothing was broken... I just uploaded the wrong file  ;D

Fixed now
« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 10:07:35 PM by Prof »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1359 on: March 18, 2019, 07:45:27 AM »
APLT Full Table : Matchweek 31
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