Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19  (Read 31018 times)

Offline Yosser0_0

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #200 on: February 1, 2019, 02:16:33 PM »
City won 18 in a row last season, so yeah, they had a rolling 10 match 3 PPG for a bit.

OK, thanks much appreciated. :)
« Last Edit: February 1, 2019, 02:22:14 PM by Yosser0_0 »
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Offline Yosser0_0

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #201 on: February 1, 2019, 02:21:43 PM »
Right so let me see if I am understanding that graph right…

Arouuuuund game 23 or 24 would be the same point this time last season right? Up to 38…

We looked pretty similar on the graph, City slightly above us but maybe the rolling 10 with them coming from a higher average before that point negates that.

So that bodes well for us as we just need to match them anyway from now on right? Just as we did last season...
obviously context is gonna be a massive factor

Or am I talking arse.

Did we really match them at the end of last season? It didn't feel like it as we seemed to have a few draws and it took longer than expected to secure Champions League qualification. If memory serves me, we should easily have come third but finished fourth, I appreciate it was a priority call from the manager but it didn't feel like a strong finish in the league.
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Offline red_Mark1980

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #202 on: February 1, 2019, 03:09:37 PM »
Did we really match them at the end of last season? It didn't feel like it as we seemed to have a few draws and it took longer than expected to secure Champions League qualification. If memory serves me, we should easily have come third but finished fourth, I appreciate it was a priority call from the manager but it didn't feel like a strong finish in the league.

They slack off though. They were still great and still won the league with about 30 games in hand. But they'd done that because they set off like an Express train.

They did again this season. Their problem was so did we

Offline just redk84 will do

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #203 on: February 1, 2019, 03:31:43 PM »
Did we really match them at the end of last season? It didn't feel like it as we seemed to have a few draws and it took longer than expected to secure Champions League qualification. If memory serves me, we should easily have come third but finished fourth, I appreciate it was a priority call from the manager but it didn't feel like a strong finish in the league.

I realise how pointless my looking at that graph in that way was now...

They were better. But not by much....7 points i believe with 14 games to go as the Matchday 24 update table is actually the right source of information.

Man city did 2.5 ppg and we did 2 ppg so they were about 7 points better which would mean curtains for our title hopes if the same were to happen this season.

But it is a different Liverpool....and a different City in a different kind of set up for the title run in so yeah....the rolling average I guess shows that we are improving in consistency and they are not so that is the hope we have to cling to
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Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #204 on: February 1, 2019, 03:40:43 PM »
We also eased off toward the end, with just 8 points from the last five games as we had bigger fish to fry. Who knows if either or both teams will have that concern this season. They should at least get to the quarters, and we are more like 50/50.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #205 on: February 1, 2019, 05:19:38 PM »
The way I look at it, is the rolling 10 smoothes out the impact of individual results, so you're looking at a more consistent trend line.

In this chart, you're looking at almost 2 season's worth of matches (9 from two season's ago, last season, and 24 from this). 
Each data point is a quarter of a season (10 of 38 matches).

City have consistently been better than us, other than a period just past halfway last season, & latterly.
Having said this, if the trend was smoothed out, we are in an uptrend, & City had perfection for awhile, dropped off but were stable, and latterly are in a significant downtrend.

Trends can change, City could find their mojo again, but looking at recent trends I'd say were in good shape to win this thing, and maybe City isn't as good as we think they are.

Offline Yosser0_0

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #206 on: February 1, 2019, 05:38:54 PM »
We also eased off toward the end, with just 8 points from the last five games as we had bigger fish to fry. Who knows if either or both teams will have that concern this season. They should at least get to the quarters, and we are more like 50/50.

Aye, it did feel like a disappointing points return at the time and I doubt this year we will be starting the derby with Klavan at  left back and Solanke / Ings up front!  ;)
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #207 on: February 4, 2019, 10:48:04 PM »
Match 25 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #208 on: February 10, 2019, 10:24:48 PM »
Match 26 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #209 on: February 10, 2019, 10:27:31 PM »
Interesting that LFC/MCFC/THFC all have 6 "non wins": 
LFC 5 draws/1 loss; MCFC 2D/4L; THFC 0D/6L

Also MUFC 6D/5L; AFC 5D/6L; CFC 5D/6L
All 3 teams with 11 "non wins"

Amazing similarity!

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #210 on: February 11, 2019, 02:15:03 PM »
Here's what it looks like if we continue at our season's ppg @ 2.5:

We end up with 95 points (means we can afford 3 draws or 2 losses).

For City to get 95 they can only afford 1 loss, a ppg @ 2.73 (compared to 2.55 ppg last season....a loss to United & a draw w/ Huddersfield)

95 pts would tie the 2nd best PL record (Chelsea 04/05)
« Last Edit: February 11, 2019, 02:18:12 PM by JP-65 »

Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #211 on: February 11, 2019, 02:19:21 PM »
Thank you again sir!
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Offline Petadroli

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #212 on: February 11, 2019, 03:03:47 PM »
Match 26 update:

That should give people heart. Escpecially the comparison of 17/18 ManCity and 18/19 ManCity. Way more "off" results, often the unexpected ones. Looking at the fixtures left, it is clear we have the tougher home games while they have the tougher away games. It will be so, so close.
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Offline drmick

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #213 on: February 11, 2019, 05:00:05 PM »
Here's what it looks like if we continue at our season's ppg @ 2.5:

We end up with 95 points (means we can afford 3 draws or 2 losses).

For City to get 95 they can only afford 1 loss, a ppg @ 2.73 (compared to 2.55 ppg last season....a loss to United & a draw w/ Huddersfield)

95 pts would tie the 2nd best PL record (Chelsea 04/05)
Are you saying Man City have to better their ppg of the 100 point season to get to 95 points?

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #214 on: February 11, 2019, 05:10:27 PM »
Are you saying Man City have to better their ppg of the 100 point season to get to 95 points?

For the remaining fixtures.

Offline Achilles Heel

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #215 on: February 11, 2019, 09:40:06 PM »
Here's what it looks like if we continue at our season's ppg @ 2.5:

We end up with 95 points (means we can afford 3 draws or 2 losses).

For City to get 95 they can only afford 1 loss, a ppg @ 2.73 (compared to 2.55 ppg last season....a loss to United & a draw w/ Huddersfield)

95 pts would tie the 2nd best PL record (Chelsea 04/05)

You could do with the same finish as 13/14  where the last 12 were W10 D1 L1  and  2.58ppg for a finish with 96pts.  City would have to be W10 D1 L0 to match it.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #216 on: February 12, 2019, 01:25:37 PM »
Here's a look at what's needed if City continue their season's ppg @ 2.41

They end up with 92 points (2 losses, or 3 draws).

We'd need 93 probably, due to goal difference (2 losses & 1 draw, or 4 draws)

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #217 on: February 12, 2019, 01:57:54 PM »
I've gone and looked at the last 12 matches of the season for all of the top 6 back to 2003-04 season.

The best closing 12 matches was Spurs in 16/17 when they went 11W 1L 0D

The next best is 5 occurrences of 10W 1L 1D (MCFC 17/18; CFC 08/09; LFC 13/14 08/09 0506)

There is 1 10W 2L 0D (CFC 16/17)

There are 10 occurrences of 3 dropped results 0L 3D; 1L 2D; 2L 1D

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY PERFECT CLOSING 12 OR 11 MATCH SEQUENCE TO A SEASON in my database from 2003/04
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 02:01:10 PM by JP-65 »

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #218 on: February 12, 2019, 02:09:43 PM »
I've gone and looked at the last 12 matches of the season for all of the top 6 back to 2003-04 season.


To summarise:

15 seasons of data

1 instance where a team dropped points in only 1 match

6 instances where a team dropped points in only 2 matches  (we've done 3 of the 6!)

10 instances where a team dropped points in only 3 matches.

Offline Petadroli

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #219 on: February 12, 2019, 02:13:09 PM »
To summarise:

15 seasons of data

1 instance where a team dropped points in only 1 match

6 instances where a team dropped points in only 2 matches  (we've done 3 of the 6!)

10 instances where a team dropped points in only 3 matches.

So basically it's most likely that ManCity and Liverpool will both drop points in two or three matches. Coin toss territory.
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Offline just redk84 will do

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #220 on: February 12, 2019, 02:32:52 PM »
I've gone and looked at the last 12 matches of the season for all of the top 6 back to 2003-04 season.

The best closing 12 matches was Spurs in 16/17 when they went 11W 1L 0D

The next best is 5 occurrences of 10W 1L 1D (MCFC 17/18; CFC 08/09; LFC 13/14 08/09 0506)

There is 1 10W 2L 0D (CFC 16/17)

There are 10 occurrences of 3 dropped results 0L 3D; 1L 2D; 2L 1D

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY PERFECT CLOSING 12 OR 11 MATCH SEQUENCE TO A SEASON in my database from 2003/04

Excellent stuff mate.....was looking for something like this.

Gives me optimism
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Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #221 on: February 12, 2019, 02:34:03 PM »
Interesting that LFC/MCFC/THFC all have 6 "non wins": 
LFC 5 draws/1 loss; MCFC 2D/4L

*snip*

Our 5 Draws vs MCFC's 2 Draws == Our current 3 point lead

Eek! That's so close!
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Offline Uncle Ronnie

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #222 on: February 12, 2019, 02:35:41 PM »
Great work

Offline Achilles Heel

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #223 on: February 12, 2019, 03:50:46 PM »
I've gone and looked at the last 12 matches of the season for all of the top 6 back to 2003-04 season.

The best closing 12 matches was Spurs in 16/17 when they went 11W 1L 0D

The next best is 5 occurrences of 10W 1L 1D (MCFC 17/18; CFC 08/09; LFC 13/14 08/09 0506)

There is 1 10W 2L 0D (CFC 16/17)

There are 10 occurrences of 3 dropped results 0L 3D; 1L 2D; 2L 1D

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY PERFECT CLOSING 12 OR 11 MATCH SEQUENCE TO A SEASON in my database from 2003/04

If your database went further back a couple of years you would have found one!

Arsenal finished 2001/2002 with 13 straight wins.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #224 on: February 12, 2019, 04:11:36 PM »
If your database went further back a couple of years you would have found one!

Arsenal finished 2001/2002 with 13 straight wins.

That's an amazing finish for a team that had 87 points for the season!

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #225 on: February 12, 2019, 04:13:46 PM »
1.92 ppg for the first 25 games to 3.0 ppg  :o

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #226 on: February 12, 2019, 04:22:05 PM »
1.92 ppg for the first 25 games to 3.0 ppg  :o

18 seasons since 2000, 6 big teams, 1 occurrence......less than 1% probability  ;D

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #227 on: February 12, 2019, 04:29:14 PM »
18 seasons since 2000, 6 big teams, 1 occurrence......less than 1% probability  ;D

Even worse, it would actually be 14 wins in a row for Manchester City and 13 for us.

Offline Uncle Ronnie

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #228 on: February 12, 2019, 04:32:35 PM »
Even worse, it would actually be 14 wins in a row for Manchester City and 13 for us.

And we'll win the league by 3 points

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #229 on: February 12, 2019, 04:41:36 PM »
And we'll win the league by 3 points

Only 3?  8)

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #230 on: February 12, 2019, 04:47:26 PM »
Draw with the Mancs, then go unbeaten for the rest to win by 1 point from City who win 13 in a row  :o

The season finish of all season finishes  ;D

Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #231 on: February 15, 2019, 09:06:11 AM »
Within the PL era, ie the most recent 27 seasons, including this one, only two teams have had more than 65 points after the first 26 games.

In 17/18, Man City had 69 points at this stage.  In 05/06, Chelsea had 66.

We are the third team to have 65 points by now.  Our GD of +44 is better than the other two:  Chelsea in 04/05 (+41) and Man United in 12/13 (+31).

Not counting this season, after 26 games:

  • 6 teams have had at least 64 points, and all 6 have gone on to be champions.

    10 teams have had at least 63 points, and only one (Arsenal in 07/08) have failed to be champions.

    12 teams have had at least 62 points, and only one (Arsenal in 07/08) have failed to be champions.

This season is the first time that two teams had 62 points (or more) after 26 games.



Offline just redk84 will do

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #232 on: February 15, 2019, 10:25:05 AM »
Within the PL era, ie the most recent 27 seasons, including this one, only two teams have had more than 65 points after the first 26 games.

In 17/18, Man City had 69 points at this stage.  In 05/06, Chelsea had 66.

We are the third team to have 65 points by now.  Our GD of +44 is better than the other two:  Chelsea in 04/05 (+41) and Man United in 12/13 (+31).

Not counting this season, after 26 games:

  • 6 teams have had at least 64 points, and all 6 have gone on to be champions.

    10 teams have had at least 63 points, and only one (Arsenal in 07/08) have failed to be champions.

    12 teams have had at least 62 points, and only one (Arsenal in 07/08) have failed to be champions.

This season is the first time that two teams had 62 points (or more) after 26 games.

i.e City are fucking annoying

or vice versa if ur a City fan  :D
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #233 on: February 25, 2019, 01:05:55 PM »
Match 27 update:

Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #234 on: February 25, 2019, 02:50:08 PM »
Thank you sir. :)
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Offline just redk84 will do

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #235 on: February 25, 2019, 03:03:54 PM »
Those results against the top 10 teams are getting a bit yellow...

Two big games coming up.
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Offline AmanShah21

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #236 on: February 25, 2019, 10:09:07 PM »
Those results against the top 10 teams are getting a bit yellow...

Two big games coming up.

We only have 1 away game left in that bracket though, which is massive.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #237 on: February 27, 2019, 10:24:10 PM »
Match 28 Update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #238 on: February 28, 2019, 02:46:50 PM »
@OptaJoe
 11m11 minutes ago

102 - Liverpool have been top of the Premier League table for 102 days this season, the first time they've hit the 100-day milestone in a single league campaign since 1990-91 (163 days). Leading

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #239 on: February 28, 2019, 04:37:06 PM »
Thanks JP.

So far we've doubled four teams. Last season we did it to seven teams. Out of the teams we have played twice, we have failed to do the double five times. We have 9 more chances to double teams. The only one we can't is Chelsea, thanks to the away draw. Not that I have a point with this, but it's very easy to see just looking at that last two pictures :P