Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19  (Read 11490 times)

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #40 on: September 24, 2018, 05:11:41 PM »
IMO, it's highly unlikely that Spurs, Arsenal or United can turn it up enough to get to the 90 point level...early days, but it's already a 3 horse race.

Agreed, there's such little room for error to get there, they'd all realistically need at least 25 more wins to do it. United have to go at over two points per game to even reach 76... they easily could, but then last year was the only one in the last five that they got more than 71 in total, so far from guaranteed.

Offline penga

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2018, 05:35:22 AM »
Sol Bamba saying things along the lines of his team fearing City and Liverpool with the pace and quality we have up front and the game is basically a free hit for them. His manager even rested him against City because he said that's not our real battle save your legs for Burnley. Then when it comes to Man Utd he's like: we can turn up there with belief that we will get something because if you start well they aren't putting you under constant pressure like City or Liverpool.

Gonna be hard for them :D

Offline LFCsupporter

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #42 on: September 25, 2018, 01:15:23 PM »
I think it'll be a 2 horse race with City. Chelsea have got decent results, but they've looked vulnerable whenever I've watched them. Arsenal could have scored 3 or 4 against them, and West Ham could have nabbed the 3 points if Yarmalenko didn't miss a sitter.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #43 on: September 29, 2018, 10:39:59 PM »
+4 on equivalent results so far.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #44 on: September 29, 2018, 11:33:28 PM »
Week 7 updates:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #45 on: October 7, 2018, 11:14:38 PM »
Week 8 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #46 on: October 7, 2018, 11:23:38 PM »
Arsenal are winning their aways against the bottom half where they dropped points last season.  Keep it up and they'll be a threat.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #47 on: October 20, 2018, 10:03:46 PM »
Week 8 update:

Just a question. Man City's equivalent has risen from 0 to +2, but shouldn't that be +1? They lost their game against us last season, but they drew the fixture this time around, so that will be +1?

The updates for this week will be interesting.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #48 on: October 22, 2018, 01:27:59 PM »
Just a question. Man City's equivalent has risen from 0 to +2, but shouldn't that be +1? They lost their game against us last season, but they drew the fixture this time around, so that will be +1?

The updates for this week will be interesting.

Thnx PiM, you are right, it's fixed and will be in tonight's update.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #49 on: October 22, 2018, 10:32:28 PM »
Week 9 Update:

5 teams on 21 points & higher.....unbelievable!

Offline AmanShah21

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #50 on: October 22, 2018, 10:34:48 PM »
We drew each of the next 5 corresponding (equivalent) fixtures last season. I am sure we'll get more than 5 points from these 5 this season and that should bump us up in the Equiv tables.

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #51 on: October 26, 2018, 10:20:04 PM »
We're the Premier League's "Most Improved Team This Season" (Guardian)

Premier League: Liverpool (23 points, 10 more than last season)

It’s easy to forget that Liverpool were in a worrying position this time last year. Having just suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat to Tottenham at Wembley,  Klopp’s side found themselves ninth in the Premier League – below Watford, Newcastle and Burnley – with a negative goal difference to boot.

They edge out Bournemouth as the most improved side in the Premier League now thanks to their superior goal difference – both clubs are 10 points better off but Liverpool’s goal difference has shot up. That improvement is largely due to their defence. After nine games last season they had conceded 16 goals; this season they have conceded just three – and none at home.

The introductions of Alisson, Virgil van Dijk and Andrew Robertson, who wasn’t featuring for the club this time last year, have made a massive impact. Liverpool are now level on points with table-topping Manchester City, having been 12 points behind them this time last season.

Offline Mr_Shane

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #52 on: October 26, 2018, 10:26:54 PM »
Cannot believe we did so poorly against all the sides who got relegated. Can only improve against them. In contrast, City only dropped 14 points all season. Going to be very difficult to see them improve from last season... They can only drop 10 more points

Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #53 on: October 27, 2018, 05:21:06 AM »
@Mr_Shane And how good are City looking so far that they're actually 1 point ahead of last season's incredible pace, going by equivalent matches.

Of course, there's plenty of matches to go.  The strong starts can falter, and weak starts can pick up steam.
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #54 on: October 27, 2018, 10:43:19 AM »
@Mr_Shane And how good are City looking so far that they're actually 1 point ahead of last season's incredible pace, going by equivalent matches.

Of course, there's plenty of matches to go.  The strong starts can falter, and weak starts can pick up steam.

The main difference is that they changed their tactics against us, sat back a bit, got a draw (apparently could've won) when they lost to us at Anfield last season. Otherwise, they've been pretty much the same.

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #55 on: October 27, 2018, 10:55:23 AM »
We're the Premier League's "Most Improved Team This Season" (Guardian)

Premier League: Liverpool (23 points, 10 more than last season)

It’s easy to forget that Liverpool were in a worrying position this time last year. Having just suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat to Tottenham at Wembley,  Klopp’s side found themselves ninth in the Premier League – below Watford, Newcastle and Burnley – with a negative goal difference to boot.

They edge out Bournemouth as the most improved side in the Premier League now thanks to their superior goal difference – both clubs are 10 points better off but Liverpool’s goal difference has shot up. That improvement is largely due to their defence. After nine games last season they had conceded 16 goals; this season they have conceded just three – and none at home.

The introductions of Alisson, Virgil van Dijk and Andrew Robertson, who wasn’t featuring for the club this time last year, have made a massive impact. Liverpool are now level on points with table-topping Manchester City, having been 12 points behind them this time last season.


And what that tells me is that, as ridiculous as it sounds, Man United still have a decent shout at top four.  Assuming they can be arsed.  Right now Maureen at least can't be.
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #56 on: October 27, 2018, 12:56:18 PM »
And what that tells me is that, as ridiculous as it sounds, Man United still have a decent shout at top four.  Assuming they can be arsed.  Right now Maureen at least can't be.

How does it tell you that?

If you see JP's chart, it's slipping out of their hands and it'll soon get to where they have to go on par in APLT for the rest of the season to even get Top 4.

Offline Mr_Shane

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #57 on: October 27, 2018, 02:38:54 PM »
How does it tell you that?

If you see JP's chart, it's slipping out of their hands and it'll soon get to where they have to go on par in APLT for the rest of the season to even get Top 4.

The results comparison does not tell you this, but we have been here before its difficult to play catch up to 2 teams let alone 5 teams who are getting results every week. You have to win and then look at everyone else results and hope they drop points

Offline Brain Blissed Selection Box? Quality Street my arse.

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #58 on: October 27, 2018, 02:54:34 PM »
I think RB is saying it shows that because they have a point more than we did, and we made top four.

So there is a chance, but I think those currently in the top five are stronger than last season, so it’s an extremely slim chance. And they’re playing like absolute shit, whereas we were okay, apart from the odd game and individual mistakes.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #59 on: October 27, 2018, 07:49:09 PM »
The results comparison does not tell you this, but we have been here before its difficult to play catch up to 2 teams let alone 5 teams who are getting results every week. You have to win and then look at everyone else results and hope they drop points

Yeah, I didn't refer to Results Comparison when I said 'JP's chart', I meant the PPG chart that he prepares after each game that is required for 90 Points, which helps us calculate for 75 points as well.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #60 on: October 27, 2018, 07:59:58 PM »
I think RB is saying it shows that because they have a point more than we did, and we made top four.

So there is a chance, but I think those currently in the top five are stronger than last season, so it’s an extremely slim chance. And they’re playing like absolute shit, whereas we were okay, apart from the odd game and individual mistakes.

We made it because, after Spurs Away last season, we were more than Top 4 material. We were probably Top 2 material from then on. If not for the late CL game priorities and drawing to Stoke, WB and losing to Chelsea with one eye elsewhere, we'd have easily been 3rd and maybe even caught up with United. That's how good we were. Our defensive stats after Spurs were also close to elite (we can look them up in other threads mentioned).

Man United have a lot to do to match what we did last season from then on, and they have a lot more competition this time around. I'd say 4th spot is between Spurs and Arsenal unless something drastic happens and by that I mean unless Chelsea slip from 3rd and enter this race from the top. Man United have dropped two many APLT points too early to recover them back, and I don't see it happening. They've slipped in easier fixtures so far (Brighton, Wolves & West Ham), and have struggled even in games they've won (Leicester on the first day, Watford as the game went on and Newcastle), first they have to stop that trend from happening, and then they have claw their way back in harder fixtures as well (which they've failed so far against Spurs and Chelsea).

Offline hesbighesred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #61 on: October 28, 2018, 06:19:53 AM »
Yeah no way will Utd get top 4 this season. They're a defensive team who leak goals up against 5 teams who are all capable of putting together long winning runs and spells unbeaten and, in particular, who don't drop many points against lower teams. Especially at home.

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #62 on: October 28, 2018, 06:31:30 PM »
I think RB is saying it shows that because they have a point more than we did, and we made top four.

So there is a chance, but I think those currently in the top five are stronger than last season, so it’s an extremely slim chance. And they’re playing like absolute shit, whereas we were okay, apart from the odd game and individual mistakes.

Yeah, sorry that's all I meant.  The difference between us and United is that we are trending upwards and they are trending downwards.  In theory they can turn this around and mount a top four challenge - they're well within touching distance.  But they would need a colossal turnaround in their general form in order to do it.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #63 on: October 29, 2018, 11:01:02 PM »
Week 10 update:
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 11:02:44 PM by JP-65 »

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #64 on: October 31, 2018, 09:44:42 AM »
Top 6 mini table:

City have played away to LFC, Spurs & Arsenal without conceding a goal, pretty impressive.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 09:46:27 AM by JP-65 »

Offline Brain Blissed Selection Box? Quality Street my arse.

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #65 on: October 31, 2018, 02:50:44 PM »
Thanks, JP!

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #66 on: November 5, 2018, 09:43:35 AM »
Week 11 update:

40 seasons since 3 teams were unbeaten after 11 matches.

In the season to go, leaders are 2 points down from last season, but 2-5 positions are all up on last season.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #67 on: November 5, 2018, 01:22:33 PM »
I've updated the results matrix to reflect current league positioning for the 1st time this season (11 matches in is appropriate I think).

Makes some interesting changes in the ease/difficulty of schedule for some teams.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #68 on: November 6, 2018, 12:22:49 PM »
From BassTunedToRed

'This is remarkable work by @LFCMbM on @thetomkinstimes.

The team in seventh in the English top division have never had more points after 11 matches; the teams from 13th down have only had fewer points at this stage 10-or-less times.'

I'd add that it's remarkable looking at positions 2-8

Offline Joseph-Immanuel Queen

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #69 on: November 12, 2018, 11:16:46 AM »
So we're currently 6 points up on last year's results right?

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #70 on: November 12, 2018, 11:50:27 AM »
Week 12 update:

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #71 on: November 13, 2018, 11:54:20 AM »
Interesting now that the graph showing matches played has been put in current league order.
We have not dropped points to anyone outside the 'big 6'.  Spurs quite similar to us, grinding it out well against the lower half teams.
Chelsea have all the top half to play away, surely many points dropped there.  Likewise Arsenal only one away from the top teams (which they lost)

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #72 on: November 25, 2018, 01:22:18 PM »
This is going to be interesting.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #73 on: November 26, 2018, 03:58:58 PM »
Been away for a bit, week 13 update:

Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #74 on: November 28, 2018, 07:58:23 PM »
Bloody hell, how good have City been? As good as we've been this season, they will still take some catching.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #75 on: December 3, 2018, 10:24:22 AM »
Week 14 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #76 on: December 3, 2018, 10:25:14 AM »
Home & Away Tables:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #77 on: December 3, 2018, 03:15:21 PM »
Adjusted the Top 6 Results Matrix for the latest league positions.....interesting how unbalanced the individual team schedules are this season.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #78 on: December 3, 2018, 03:19:25 PM »
Looking at the season to go, United are mathematically out of the title race if the forecast is changed to a more likely 95 points ;D

I'd also note that I think it's a 2 team race now, as City have gone near a season and a half at 100 point clip & showing no sign of faltering from this pace.

Offline Brain Blissed Selection Box? Quality Street my arse.

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #79 on: December 3, 2018, 03:27:15 PM »
We are fucking great!

Thanks again for all the work, JP.