Author Topic: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?  (Read 7581 times)

Online Al 666

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #120 on: August 21, 2020, 09:21:28 PM »
This is possibly my favourite post of all time.

If people didn't over-analyse, we wouldn't have the computers/phones/tablets we're using now, the networks that run them and allow you to post, the screens that display the football matches you watch... you can take it all the way down to why they decided to have the penalty spot 12 yards from the goal, and the dimensions of the goal itself.

P.S. The reason we have our manager is that the analytics team proved his perceived drop off in performance at Dortmund was in fact just an incredibly unusual run of bad luck. Ian Graham's appearance on the Freakonomics podcast tells the story - he analysed ten seasons of league data and the Dortmund season was a freak one - in XG terms they were 2nd best in the league, but the team were in the relegation zone for much of the season.

The analysis didn't work though Roy.

Our performance was pretty poor until Klopp arrived. The reason he arrived wasn't down to Ian Cotton's xG analysis. It was down to the fact that Jurgen is a bit of a unique character and wanted a Club that fitted with his character.

Klopp could have easily of gone to United or Madrid. It was his choice not to go to those clubs. Our analysts didn't unearth some hidden gem. Klopp was one of the most sought after coaches on the planet. FSG deserve a huge amount of praise for convincing Klopp to join us and equally deserve a huge amount of praise for creating an environment in which Klopp has thrived. 
One thing does need to be said: in the post-Benitez era, there was media-led clamour (but also some politicking going on at the club) to make the club more English; the idea being that the club had lost the very essence of what it means to be ‘Liverpool’. Guillem Ballague 18/11/10

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #121 on: August 21, 2020, 09:51:25 PM »
The analysis didn't work though Roy.

Our performance was pretty poor until Klopp arrived. The reason he arrived wasn't down to Ian Cotton's xG analysis. It was down to the fact that Jurgen is a bit of a unique character and wanted a Club that fitted with his character.

Klopp could have easily of gone to United or Madrid. It was his choice not to go to those clubs. Our analysts didn't unearth some hidden gem. Klopp was one of the most sought after coaches on the planet. FSG deserve a huge amount of praise for convincing Klopp to join us and equally deserve a huge amount of praise for creating an environment in which Klopp has thrived. 
I think the point is they explained how they scouted him and how they use analytics to find players. Going by what has been quoted it’s a huge reason why he’s here.

Online Al 666

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #122 on: August 21, 2020, 09:58:54 PM »
I think the point is they explained how they scouted him and how they use analytics to find players. Going by what has been quoted it’s a huge reason why he’s here.

For the previous managerial appointment they ended up with a shortlist of Rodgers and Bobby brown shoes. Funnily enough haven't heard any of the analytics team coming forward and bragging about their reasoning for that one.

One thing does need to be said: in the post-Benitez era, there was media-led clamour (but also some politicking going on at the club) to make the club more English; the idea being that the club had lost the very essence of what it means to be ‘Liverpool’. Guillem Ballague 18/11/10

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #123 on: August 21, 2020, 11:25:26 PM »
Bragging.

Al - please let folk discuss the analysis and maybe reserve the agenda for a while. This is a good thread.
Thoroughly mediocre player.

Regrettably not seen anything in him. Neither for us nor from watching lots of youtube videos after a few on here said he looked good.

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #124 on: August 21, 2020, 11:34:34 PM »
Our performance was pretty poor until Klopp arrived.

BTW, here’s Dan Kennett’s plot of overall performance (points-based) over the period in question. It didn’t change overnight. And we fluffed every final till Madrid, lest we forget. The improvement has been steady.

Thoroughly mediocre player.

Regrettably not seen anything in him. Neither for us nor from watching lots of youtube videos after a few on here said he looked good.

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #125 on: August 21, 2020, 11:37:11 PM »
Clearly on the way down.

Online Al 666

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #126 on: August 22, 2020, 12:16:55 AM »
BTW, here’s Dan Kennett’s plot of overall performance (points-based) over the period in question. It didn’t change overnight. And we fluffed every final till Madrid, lest we forget. The improvement has been steady.



I will start this off by saying I love your opinion Roy.

However, to suggest that the overall improvements have been steady is frankly preposterous. Our improvements have headed in one direction under Klopp but to suggest it has been steady improvement under FSG is ludicrous.

13/14 under Brendan was right up there with 97-98 in terms of enjoyment as a Liverpool fan but that was followed by selling Sterling and Suarez and ending up with Balotelli, Sturridge, Borini and Lambert. If you are seriously telling me that was steady improvement then you have been on the buckfast laddie.  ;D ;D

As for the graph why does it have massive chunks missing. Lies, dammed lies and statistics springs to mind.

One thing does need to be said: in the post-Benitez era, there was media-led clamour (but also some politicking going on at the club) to make the club more English; the idea being that the club had lost the very essence of what it means to be ‘Liverpool’. Guillem Ballague 18/11/10

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #127 on: August 22, 2020, 09:42:46 AM »
I did mean under Klopp, Al. You could create an argument out of thin air, you know that?

Ta though.

Meanwhile here’s a nice article about how we’ve extended the scope of the inputs to our analysis at the club.

https://trainingground.guru/articles/why-liverpool-hired-french-start-up-to-turn-video-into-data
Thoroughly mediocre player.

Regrettably not seen anything in him. Neither for us nor from watching lots of youtube videos after a few on here said he looked good.

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Re: 'It's beyond the model': have Liverpool exposed the limits of xG?
« Reply #128 on: August 22, 2020, 09:51:35 AM »
Clearly on the way down.

That’s what happens when you mention FSG doing a good job though
Trent is pretty poor at free kicks. Said it for a long time. One decent free kick a few years ago and the commentators think he's Beckham