Author Topic: General Election on June 8th  (Read 70591 times)

Online Alan_X

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4160 on: Yesterday at 04:31:52 PM »
Why are loads of people saying Labour have zero chance in this election? From what I've seen they've got a decent chance at least, no?

A very slim chance. Winning back the seats Labour lost in Scotland last time round would be crucial. We'll win in the metropolitan areas but it's doubtful we'll make a great deal of headway in the Tory heartlands.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4161 on: Yesterday at 04:59:06 PM »
It's not just Corporation Tax that is a factor

It's also things like business rates, NI contributions etc..

When you factor all those things in we are much further down the list on terms of competitiveness

Out of interest what are the other countries business rate taxes, or equivalent NI contributions or other equivalent taxes in comparison to the UK?



committing to raising it by 40% isn't a good idea, should have just said they'll keep it as it is until a year or two after Brexit and then re evaluate, gives plenty of wiggle room to increase in the future depending on how Brexit goes, and of course gives businesses a bit of stability in a rocky period

There's no commitment to raising it from 19% to 26% overnight is there?
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4162 on: Yesterday at 05:02:55 PM »
Why are loads of people saying Labour have zero chance in this election? From what I've seen they've got a decent chance at least, no?
I believe that labour would need to be 4% ahead in the polls in order to gain the most seats...

Zero chance I would suggest
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4163 on: Yesterday at 05:11:41 PM »
There's no commitment to raising it from 19% to 26% overnight is there?
it is over the parliament, shouldn't have committed to a number as there is so much uncertainty these next few years and the worst case scenario they have to keep what we have in terms of jobs/companies

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4164 on: Yesterday at 05:23:47 PM »
it is over the parliament, shouldn't have committed to a number as there is so much uncertainty these next few years and the worst case scenario they have to keep what we have in terms of jobs/companies

Well, from the point of view of the corporations they'd know what the figure will end up being over 4 years (and likely it being staggered increases over that time?) - so there is a bit of certainty and stability for them there.

And a lot of certainty in the meanwhile that the money from this is going to the people who need it most (and have likely suffered most over the over last 7 years).
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4165 on: Yesterday at 05:33:19 PM »

Well, from the point of view of the corporations they'd know what the figure will end up being over 4 years (and likely it being staggered increases over that time?) - so there is a bit of certainty and stability for them there.

True, but it's not going to make them want to come/stay when you are trying to get more off them in a less attractive environment to trade in without the tax rises.

And a lot of certainty in the meanwhile that the money from this is going to the people who need it most (and have likely suffered most over the over last 7 years).
if you can get that money, but the IFS said basically what most people with a background in finance would say, that is the sums don't add up despite their 'costings' and it would almost certainly lead to economic disaster, especially with so much of that spending needless and wasteful
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 05:38:12 PM by Laughter is the best medicine... »

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4166 on: Yesterday at 05:54:16 PM »
Just a tangential thing, but this idea of always needing a balanced budget needs to die in fire quickly - otherwise we're going to just keep repeating the mistakes of the past 7 years. Corbyn and McDonnell are right on this. They took advice and embraced the foundations provided to them. What they've built to go into the manifesto, well, yeah but the underlying point is important whatever they then try to do with it.

Good little takedown of the flaws with the IFS analysis: http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/assessing-the-manifestos-the-ifs-fails-the-test
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4167 on: Yesterday at 06:04:40 PM »
Just a tangential thing, but this idea of always needing a balanced budget needs to die in fire quickly - otherwise we're going to just keep repeating the mistakes of the past 7 years. Corbyn and McDonnell are right on this. They took advice and embraced the foundations provided to them. What they've built to go into the manifesto, well, yeah but the underlying point is important whatever they then try to do with it.

Good little takedown of the flaws with the IFS analysis: http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/assessing-the-manifestos-the-ifs-fails-the-test
they sold it as a balanced budget to give it credibility, the ifs threw scorn on it.

admittedly they need to say balanced budget because of ed Miliband being a total fuckwit two years ago so they were screwed on that, a smaller deficit than the Tories plan would probably been better?

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4168 on: Yesterday at 06:11:25 PM »
they sold it as a balanced budget to give it credibility, the ifs threw scorn on it.

admittedly they need to say balanced budget because of ed Miliband being a total fuckwit two years ago so they were screwed on that, a smaller deficit than the Tories plan would probably been better?

That's the part I found darkly amusing having had a Corbynista once of this parish whine at length to me about Miliband not being anti-austerity because of what he said in the manifesto vs what was actually priced into the manifesto. (IFS had Miliband's manifesto halting austerity just by addition and subtraction). Still there are clear holes in the IFS' approach, which would be interesting to see filled in to see how close Corbyn's manifesto comes to being balanced over a parliament or longer.

Not throwing stones at Corbyn for not taking austerity on straight up. The voters will price that in, as they did with Miliband.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4169 on: Yesterday at 06:22:46 PM »
True, but it's not going to make them want to come/stay when you are trying to get more off them in a less attractive environment to trade in without the tax rises.

As already stated it seems we're a lot more attractive %-wise than some of our competitors - plus, this doesn't include the effect of how these corporations are seen, ie - we've had it good for so long but bow that we're being taxed to help the people who've suffered and been neglected over the that time - in a bid to bring about more equality etc - we are now off to a country which may give us better tax rates (for now) - see ya, UK?

if you can get that money, but the IFS said basically what most people with a background in finance would say, that is the sums don't add up despite their 'costings' and it would almost certainly lead to economic disaster, especially with so much of that spending needless and wasteful

What Zeb says above.

Plus, seemingly many people with backgrounds in finance tend to opt for, or highlight, policies that will make themselves richer, or maintain the status quo.

And that's quite a reach to get to 'economic disaster' - and that spending money on NHS, social care, building houses, and reducing the need for foodbanks - as to which Corbyn refers to in that video - to 'so much of that spending is needless and wasteful'.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 06:26:19 PM by oojason »
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4170 on: Yesterday at 06:34:59 PM »
And that's quite a reach to get to 'economic disaster' - and that spending money on NHS, social care, building houses, and reducing the need for foodbanks - as to which Corbyn refers to in that video - to 'so much of that spending is needless and wasteful'.
free university education for all isn't needed one bit - means testing for family income and subject matter (I.e. STEM subjects) should be what determines it, I am yet to see an argument for why someone who's family income is in 6 figures should get to study film studies for three years for free, but someone from a family who's income is £30k shouldn't pay to do something like computer science for example.

Oh and the IFS also said the Tories plan was bollocks as well.

As already stated it seems we're a lot more attractive %-wise than some of our competitors - plus, this doesn't include the effect of how these corporations are seen, ie - we've had it good for so long but bow that we're being taxed to help the people who've suffered and been neglected over the that time - in a bid to bring about more equality etc - we are now off to a country which may give us better tax rates (for now) - see ya, UK?
theres the employer contributions to pensions which is around 5% of salary in a few years which is an extra 'tax' which I don't think any other G7 country has? And the uk is about to become a lot less attractive so it doesn't help the situation saying you'll increase taxes, increase the minimum wage etc whilst many companies (esp manufacturing ones) have already seen their cost base go up thanks to brexit

Besides the companies that would hurt more are the domestic ones not the big multinationals who are accused of the tax dodging etc, especially the SME's who are so important to the country who have much harder with the currency crashing the last year
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 06:37:16 PM by Laughter is the best medicine... »

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4171 on: Yesterday at 07:21:36 PM »
free university education for all isn't needed one bit - means testing for family income and subject matter (I.e. STEM subjects) should be what determines it, I am yet to see an argument for why someone who's family income is in 6 figures should get to study film studies for three years for free, but someone from a family who's income is £30k shouldn't pay to do something like computer science for example.

Oh and the IFS also said the Tories plan was bollocks as well.

The free uni education wasn't mentioned in the video linked - are you sure that it's a direct of beneficiary of this corporate tax rise?

though, if it is, how much of the free uni education will be considered 'wasteful', ie £100,000k+ households?

(I take it you agree that the things mentioned by Corbyn in that video aren't wasteful?)


Separately, here is an argument for why someone who's family income is in 6 figures should get to study for free - the parents are pricks who won't pay for the offspring's uni education - what now? The offspring can't go? - or the offspring has to pay it themselves?

What if the offspring is not living with his £100,000K p/a parents - and/or is estranged from them - what then?

How do other countries manage it? Who are considered the fairest or best when delegating uni fees? (for those that have uni fees, obviously)

« Last Edit: Yesterday at 07:24:13 PM by oojason »
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4172 on: Yesterday at 07:23:53 PM »

The MP said standards that were 'good enough for India' could be good enough for the UK

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html


I'm always trying to convince the Mrs we should move back home to India I suppose...

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4173 on: Yesterday at 07:58:44 PM »
The Torys have their own liability's as well who have made some horrendous statements.
I still find Reece-Moggs statement shocking. Labour should be going on the attack to scare voters into not voting Tory.
Theres no need for long speeches. just keep hammering facts like these. scare voters into not voting Tory. This is the Brexit the Torys want. DO YOU WANT IT.

Britain could slash environmental and safety standards 'a very long way' after Brexit, Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg says

The MP said standards that were 'good enough for India' could be good enough for the UK

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html


Which is very obviously what the Tories want. Zero standards of living. Zero support. Zero working rights. Zero human rights. Zero hope unless you are either very rich or somehow get very rich.

Be nice. It's free

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4174 on: Yesterday at 08:22:23 PM »
Reece Mogg wants to drag everyone else into the Victorian world in his head.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4175 on: Yesterday at 08:32:11 PM »
Sound like the Tory warchest may be opening.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/868584282213797893

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4176 on: Yesterday at 08:32:12 PM »
Which is very obviously what the Tories want. Zero standards of living. Zero support. Zero working rights. Zero human rights. Zero hope unless you are either very rich or somehow get very rich.
Yep, it's Brexit so it's project fear except this is a statement from a Tory leave MP explaining what will happen when we leave the EU. people have been blinded by Brexit. Brexit is going to happen but they should be extremely concerned over this Tory Brexit.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4177 on: Yesterday at 10:38:49 PM »
Sound like the Tory warchest may be opening.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/868584282213797893
they have different hairstyles now though

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4178 on: Yesterday at 11:00:13 PM »
Everybody in this country who believes in Allah in this country, is known about by the security services. Thank god.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4179 on: Yesterday at 11:00:26 PM »
Reece Mogg wants to drag everyone else into the Victorian world in his head.
There's more Rees-Mogg's coming through the ranks too.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/student-tory-groups-swell-backlash-left-wing-activists/

Quote
Students are joining university Conservative societies in growing numbers in reaction to the activities of left-wing activists on campus, it has been claimed.

Several Conservative student groups at Britain's leading universities doubled in size last year, new figures show - with membership at the Cambridge University Conservative Association swelling by more than 40 per cent.

The number of new members at Brunel University’s student Conservative society has surged by more than 400 per cent, while the Conservative and Unionist Association at Edinburgh University has almost tripled in size.

King's College London, Kent and Reading have also seen membership subscriptions increase by 30-40 per cent in the last academic year.

Conservative student leaders say the influx of new members is in response to what they say are attacks on free speech by left- wing student groups.

They claim the Rhodes Must Fall campaign for the removal of a statue of colonialist Cecil Rhodes from the grounds of Oriel College led to hundreds of students joining Oxford University’s student Conservative society.

William Rees-Mogg, President of Oxford's Conservative society and nephew of MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, said students were abandoning other societies out of fear that their views would be derided by other members.

“It’s the fact that you won’t get told off simply for having right-of centre views, that’s a major draw,” said Mr Rees-Mogg, whose society holds a weekly drinking event called ‘Port and Policy’, where members debate anything from the legacy of the British Empire to the merits of Divine Right Absolutism.

Alastair Ward-Booth, chairman of Cambridge's Conservative Association, said membership had surged because students were seeking “respite” from the “insane and exclusionary” politics of left-wing groups.

He said: “Students seem to be fed up with the irrelevance of politically correct student politics. We also suspect Jeremy Corbyn might be doing us many favours.”

The Tory student surge comes less than a week before the National Union of Students annual elections, which could see Tom Harwood, a 20-year-old undergraduate at Durham University, become the first Conservative president of the NUS since the modern organisation emerged in 1969.

Mr Harwood, who ran the pro-Brexit ‘Students for Britain’ campaign during the European Referendum last year,  claims he will be voted in by a “silent majority” of students.

He said: “The silent majority of today’s students are moderates and Conservatives. There are parallels between how the Labour Party and the NUS have declined recently. The NUS has become an introspective organisation that doesn’t connect with the wider audience of students; the Labour Party mirrors this.”

Mr Harwood is hoping to oust the NUS’s sitting President Malia Bouattia, who has been accused of being soft on anti-Semitism among student groups.

Mr Harwood accuses Ms Bouattia of using her position as a “political project” to further her own interests and says that her “fixation” with Israel had damaged the “legitimacy” of the NUS.

It follows criticism of Ms Bouattia by the Home Affairs Select Committee last year, which concluded that several comments made by her prior to her election “smacked” of “outright racism”.

Since her appointment, four university students’ unions have also voted to disaffiliate from the NUS.

At the same time several Labour societies have reported a steep decline in numbers.

While the Conservative society at Imperial College has grown by nearly 50 per cent, the Labour society, which had 56 members last year, has seen its membership fall to just 38 in 2017.

At University College London, Labour society membership has fallen from 110 to 94, while the Oxford University Labour Club said it is unable to provide figures because the website used to sign-up new members had recently expired.

Eliot Smith, President of Reading Conservatives, said  the breaking point for many students took place last year, when left-wing students attempted to boycott Jeremy Paxman from speaking on campus because he had allegedly made "sexist comments" on University Challenge.

He added that many members were exasperated by so-called "special snowflakes" and found their actions to be "quite silly".

Oh, and not to worry, the Tory student the main crux of the article's about got 35 votes and finished third.  35 votes out of 721!

The crux of things though is that having a younger surge in voting is great and more likely to be Labour/Left-wing based, but young Tories are out there and seemingly not an insignificant bunch either.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4180 on: Yesterday at 11:02:16 PM »
Nothing more vomit inducing than the young conservatives...
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4181 on: Yesterday at 11:03:18 PM »
Nothing more vomit inducing than the young conservatives...
Young Kippers aren't far off...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30446881

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4182 on: Yesterday at 11:18:52 PM »
Reece Mogg wants to drag everyone else into the Victorian world in his head.
Everything about this lad just winds me up no end. I can't believe people like him still exist in 2017 Britain and that some people even buy into his shtick. A total spoofer with beliefs that belong in the 19th century at best.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4183 on: Yesterday at 11:26:07 PM »
Sound like the Tory warchest may be opening.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/868584282213797893
Just like with Brexit, no-one seems to give a flying fuck about NI and how opening up all these old wounds really helps no-one. After all the years of effort and careful negotiations put into bringing peace up there, these c*nts just go on using it like a political football.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4184 on: Yesterday at 11:48:56 PM »
Young Kippers aren't far off...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30446881



"He claims UKIP's policies for "direct democracy" are also attractive to young people - particularly the plan to trigger a referendum if 5% of the electorate sign a petition - a policy praised by all three young UKIP supporters I interviewed."

A petition last summer met that criteria... - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36754376

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4185 on: Today at 01:17:30 AM »
Just like with Brexit, no-one seems to give a flying fuck about NI and how opening up all these old wounds really helps no-one. After all the years of effort and careful negotiations put into bringing peace up there, these c*nts just go on using it like a political football.
The Tories are using the deaths in Manchester for political gain,nothing is below them.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4186 on: Today at 07:17:29 AM »
Every other video I watch on YouTube at the moment has a Tory attack ad at the start. Such a miserable and negative campaign.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4187 on: Today at 09:44:23 AM »
Young Kippers aren't far off...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30446881



One young voter was drawn to UKIP because of their policies on animal rights.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4188 on: Today at 10:00:38 AM »
I've never actually met any young ukippers, they look like a scary lot.

I did once accidentally indecently expose myself to a young conservative at university though.

Who else would go canvassing round a halls of residence dressed in a coat, fur style hat, leather gloves and a pearl necklace but the young conservatives?

The cries of fuck off down the corridor should have been the sign to her that she wasn't welcome, and when she barged into my room without permission, she got more than she bargained for!

Only thing more fun was at a hustings for the position of communication officer.  It was essentially a job requiring someone to put up posters for parties.  The Marxist candidate saw it as an opportunity to communicate the cause of Marxism in the third world.  When asked to demonstrate her communication skills by impersonating her favourite  dinosaur, she had something of a sense of humour failure.  Which was funny.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4189 on: Today at 10:00:48 AM »
Every other video I watch on YouTube at the moment has a Tory attack ad at the start. Such a miserable and negative campaign.

All I get are car ads thanks fuck. This is why I avoid politics as much as I can.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4190 on: Today at 10:12:19 AM »
All I get are car ads thanks fuck. This is why I avoid politics as much as I can.

Never thought I'd miss adverts for Michael Bay movies that are ten times louder than the video I just watched...

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4191 on: Today at 11:03:15 AM »
The c*nts at Migration Watch UK have a similar vision of post-Brexit Britain as Jacob Rees-Mogg it seems. This is from their assessment of Labour and the Tories' immigration policies in their manifestos.

Quote
A proposal to restore the “rights” of Overseas Domestic Workers would open a serious loophole in the present arrangements which currently involve 18,500 visas a year.

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/494

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4192 on: Today at 12:53:17 PM »
Looking at the two biggest outliers in the polls is interesting...




Seems more noise in that you gov one, and a source from the Tories have said they wouldn't be surprised by a labour lead in it over the next few days.

ICM seems much more stable, makes me think it might be more reliable..  still we won't know until the 9th when the real fight starts.

Also interesting that BOTH parties are higher than at the start of April.  Goodbye to the lib dems, they won't be getting more than 10 seats an they may even lose seats again.
« Last Edit: Today at 12:57:54 PM by Dyno-Rod »
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4193 on: Today at 01:06:42 PM »
One young voter was drawn to UKIP because of their policies on animal rights.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/3944/attachments/original/1495695469/UKIP_Manifesto_June2017opt.pdf?1495695469

No search results for 'hunt'

Just to confirm in their manifesto, the only thing they specify on face covering are the niqab and burqa, not anything from any other walk of life.

"UKIP will ban wearing of the niqab and the burqa in public places. Face coverings such as these are barriers to integration. We will not accept these de-humanising symbols of segregation and oppression, nor the security risks they pose...and prevents intake of essential vitamin D from sunlight is not liberating."

Fucking Vitamin D, that's why you want to ban them you overwhelming turd-munchers.

Other gems:
"End the use of multi-lingual formating on official documents. These will be published only in English and, where appropriate, Welsh and Gaelic."
"UKIP will take the opportunity to re-instate the classic blue passport when the British passport contract comes up for renewal in 2019."
"We will remove VAT from hot takeaway food such as fish and chips"
"Encourage local trade by pushing every local authority in the country to offer at least 30 minutes’ free parking in town centres and shopping parades."
"Scrap EU Legislation that has hindered the NHS such as the Clinical Trial Directive and the Working Time Directive."
"End sex education in primary schools."
"UKIP will open a grammar school in every town, adapting the old 11+ system to add transfer examinations up to the age of sixteen, so pupils who develop in an academic direction, but not quite so fast, will still have the opportunity of a grammar school place."
"We will also cease offering EU nationals student loans when we leave the EU."
"To protect emergency workers from abuse, we will repeal the 2003 Licensing Act and bring in new legislation to reduce the density of alcohol outlets and restrict trading times."
"Exempt vehicles over 25 years old from Vehicle Excise Duty"

Particularly loved this bit:

"Bigots who shout ‘racism’ or ‘Islamophobia’ will not intimidate us. They legitimise the problem and demonstrate their ignorance. We are proud of our position. They need to get their moral compasses fixed."
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4194 on: Today at 01:10:41 PM »
That ukip policy on grammar school transfer at 16 is really odd.  If you get the GCSE results you will get into a grammar school post 16.

No need for transfer questions at all.

But then UKIP never did stand up to even the briefest of scrutinies
« Last Edit: Today at 01:14:01 PM by Dyno-Rod »
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4195 on: Today at 01:17:54 PM »
That ukip policy on grammar school transfer at 16 is really odd.  If you get the GCSE results you will get into a grammar school post 16.

No need for transfer questions at all.

But then UKIP never did stand up to even the briefest of scrutinies
Who's going to transfer mid-GCSEs anyway?  Just so you can say you graduated from Calday Grange Grammar rather than Meff-em-up High?

When I was going through it, scarily there was a lot that would appeal to most people with, you know, a pulse.  You don't have to dig far for the more stupid content though.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #4196 on: Today at 01:31:59 PM »
Who's going to transfer mid-GCSEs anyway?  Just so you can say you graduated from Calday Grange Grammar rather than Meff-em-up High?

When I was going through it, scarily there was a lot that would appeal to most people with, you know, a pulse.  You don't have to dig far for the more stupid content though.

The Grammars often offer courses not available at the local comprehensive.