Author Topic: The Horse Racing thread  (Read 173168 times)

Online Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3800 on: November 27, 2020, 03:09:21 PM »
Great race when they actually got racing. Paisley Park got caught flat footed and just couldn't get there. No excuses though. Thyme Hill is clearly nice.

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3801 on: November 27, 2020, 03:09:49 PM »
Very good race, well done to the Thyme Hill backers. I was impressed.
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Offline Shankly!Shankly!

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3802 on: November 27, 2020, 03:44:56 PM »
It's an exceptionally strong Grade 2. Looking forward to it. I'd take Paisley Park, he was dominant and I'm willing to forgive one bad run, but McFabulous is certainly one for the coming years. Nicholls has always rated him very highly.

McFab looks like he will be best at a shorter trip, 2m4f perhaps
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Offline duvva

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3803 on: November 27, 2020, 04:08:25 PM »
Anyone got a fancy in the Hennessy (Ladbrokes Trophy) tomorrow?

I like the Conditional and Vinndication, who is 8lb better off with the former from the 3m handicap chase at Cheltenham but still has to carry 11st 11lb.
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Online Robinred

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3804 on: November 27, 2020, 05:29:27 PM »
Anyone got a fancy in the Hennessy (Ladbrokes Trophy) tomorrow?

I like the Conditional and Vinndication, who is 8lb better off with the former from the 3m handicap chase at Cheltenham but still has to carry 11st 11lb.

It’s a cracking field. Tizzard’s yard are on song, and both his runners have a good shout. Mr. Malarkey jumped well at Ascot, and faded behind winner Regal Encore. He has a 7lb pull, and Regal Encore is half a stone better at Ascot than elsewhere, so I’m expecting a reverse of that Ascot run, particularly as he’d been off the course since Cheltenham. Copperhead fell at the Festival behind Champ, but previously won over course and distance in December.
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3805 on: November 27, 2020, 06:15:52 PM »
Small 3pt profit today which I will take after a bad run. Two for tomorrow in the Hennessy:

Two For Gold 2pt win 10/1 (Betfair)

Really liked the way he shaped on his prep run over a trip well short what he requires. Kim Bailey is having a great season and Bass is riding v well

Mister Malarkey 4pt win 20/1 (Bet365)

Hard one to catch right but feel this could be his day. Really liked his prep at Ascot, Tizzards love this race and know how to win it.

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Offline duvva

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3806 on: November 27, 2020, 06:31:58 PM »
Small 3pt profit today which I will take after a bad run. Two for tomorrow in the Hennessy:

Two For Gold 2pt win 10/1 (Betfair)

Really liked the way he shaped on his prep run over a trip well short what he requires. Kim Bailey is having a great season and Bass is riding v well

Mister Malarkey 4pt win 20/1 (Bet365)

Hard one to catch right but feel this could be his day. Really liked his prep at Ascot, Tizzards love this race and know how to win it.

Jumps/AW P/L: -30.3
You made me look twice there. Bass is on Bailey’s other runner Vinndication. I thought if he’d jumped ship to Two for Gold that might have been a pointer in itself
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3807 on: November 27, 2020, 07:06:01 PM »
Bloody hell note to self don’t write up in a rush!
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3808 on: November 27, 2020, 11:28:27 PM »
Anyone got a fancy in the Hennessy (Ladbrokes Trophy) tomorrow?

I like the Conditional and Vinndication, who is 8lb better off with the former from the 3m handicap chase at Cheltenham but still has to carry 11st 11lb.

I'm on Vindication too, have been following for a few years. We could hardly do it two days in a row could we 😂
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3809 on: November 27, 2020, 11:30:31 PM »
Botox Has for me as well, going to follow Gary Moore's younger hurdlers off a cliff this season.
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3810 on: November 27, 2020, 11:38:43 PM »
Meant to say well played Thyme Hill for all backers.

Moore hurdlers 4-5 yeard old so far this season win rate 7.19%. Be careful on that cliff edge  ;D
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Offline duvva

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3811 on: November 27, 2020, 11:44:49 PM »
I'm on Vindication too, have been following for a few years. We could hardly do it two days in a row could we 😂
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3812 on: November 27, 2020, 11:48:40 PM »
Meant to say well played Thyme Hill for all backers.

Moore hurdlers 4-5 yeard old so far this season win rate 7.19%. Be careful on that cliff edge  ;D

Sorry not exactly blind I think he has a few nice ones I'll be following on the weekends. Good stat to know though.
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3813 on: November 28, 2020, 07:40:54 AM »
Sorry not exactly blind I think he has a few nice ones I'll be following on the weekends. Good stat to know though.

To be fair ran the numbers again with 3-4 yo and it improved significantly, must have a nice team of juveniles!
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Offline duvva

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3814 on: November 28, 2020, 11:43:35 AM »
Monkfish couldn’t have won more easily there
“ When I see the Bill Shankly statue, I look at the sentiment on the base. It says: 'He made the people happy’. Well now the modern Liverpool is making the fans and the city happy. And that makes me so proud." - Gerard Houllier

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3815 on: November 28, 2020, 02:32:01 PM »
That was ridiculous from Epatante after the last. Looked like she’d just joined in
“ When I see the Bill Shankly statue, I look at the sentiment on the base. It says: 'He made the people happy’. Well now the modern Liverpool is making the fans and the city happy. And that makes me so proud." - Gerard Houllier

Online Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3816 on: November 28, 2020, 06:21:12 PM »
Yorkhill at 66/1! Don’t you just love seeing that.

Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3817 on: November 28, 2020, 06:26:16 PM »
Yorkhill at 66/1! Don’t you just love seeing that.

Makes me fucking sick to be honest Gerry because I toyed with the idea of a fiver e/w  ;D
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3818 on: November 29, 2020, 01:41:55 PM »
Wow! Envoi Allen put that to bed in a matter of strides.
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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3819 on: November 29, 2020, 01:42:40 PM »
Lads he's a special special horse.
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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3820 on: November 29, 2020, 01:50:01 PM »
Just like they pressed a button after the second last and he took off
“ When I see the Bill Shankly statue, I look at the sentiment on the base. It says: 'He made the people happy’. Well now the modern Liverpool is making the fans and the city happy. And that makes me so proud." - Gerard Houllier

Offline y2w902

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3821 on: November 29, 2020, 02:00:32 PM »
That was insane and I feel that he has another gear in hand too.

Offline duvva

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3822 on: November 29, 2020, 03:26:51 PM »
Slightly distracted by the insane crash in F1 but Honeysuckle is such a gritty battler of a mare
“ When I see the Bill Shankly statue, I look at the sentiment on the base. It says: 'He made the people happy’. Well now the modern Liverpool is making the fans and the city happy. And that makes me so proud." - Gerard Houllier

Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3823 on: November 29, 2020, 03:38:36 PM »
Slightly distracted by the insane crash in F1 but Honeysuckle is such a gritty battler of a mare

Agreed but you'd want to have seen her do that a bit more comfortably if she's going to go down the Champion Hurdle route.
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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3824 on: November 29, 2020, 03:55:56 PM »
Agreed but you'd want to have seen her do that a bit more comfortably if she's going to go down the Champion Hurdle route.
Yeah I doubt they will go Champion Hurdle, with the mares option. Hope they do as she’d be tough to beat in a flat out fast run Champion Hurdle
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Online Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3825 on: November 29, 2020, 03:56:26 PM »
Honeysuckle would have to improve a ton to get near Epatante.

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3826 on: November 29, 2020, 03:59:26 PM »
Honeysuckle would have to improve a ton to get near Epatante.
Not sure the gaps that big. If it turned into a sprint finish she wouldn’t see which way Epatante went but a true run race and she might be able to grind it out

But I don’t think it’s a clash we’ll see
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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3827 on: November 29, 2020, 04:02:22 PM »
Not sure the gaps that big. If it turned into a sprint finish she wouldn’t see which way Epatante went but a true run race and she might be able to grind it out

I think it is. Epatante recorded the fastest piece of work of any horse at that ridiculous Newbury day, beating Altior and she's still improving I think. Sceau Royal looked like he was standing still. They'd have to go a suicidal pace for Honeysuckle to beat her I think or the ground to be almost unraceable and blunt her finishing kick.

Offline duvva

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3828 on: November 29, 2020, 04:06:45 PM »
I think it is. Epatante recorded the fastest piece of work of any horse at that ridiculous Newbury day, beating Altior and she's still improving I think. Sceau Royal looked like he was standing still. They'd have to go a suicidal pace for Honeysuckle to beat her I think or the ground to be almost unraceable and blunt her finishing kick.
Sceau Royal’s a funny one. He always falls short at the highest level, I think he barely stays 2m at the highest level, but no doubt Epatante finished very impressively. Would certainly be a good race to see, just doubt we will unfortunately
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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3829 on: November 29, 2020, 04:42:00 PM »
Interesting to see whether Ballyadam and Ferny Hollow both go for the Supreme or they split them.
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3830 on: November 29, 2020, 05:39:09 PM »
Interesting one to note lads, the Juvenile was ten seconds faster than Ballyadams Novice. Could be that the Novice was slowly run, or the Juvenile is a beast. Going to watch them side by side shortly to compare.
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Online Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3831 on: November 29, 2020, 05:44:57 PM »
Call me mad, many have but I’ve not seen anything from Ballyadam that has wowed me. Clearly well above average but with the reputation he has im expecting something big and it hasn’t come. I wouldn’t back him for Cheltenham yet. I’ll watch him at Christmas and see.

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3832 on: November 29, 2020, 06:04:26 PM »
I thought he won his first race well but was more workmanlike today. Theres every chance given the colours and trainer he’s being relatively over hyped. Certainly be interested to see a race between Ballyadam and Bob Olinger to get a better idea of where he stands but I’d definitely have him behind Ferny Hollow in the pecking order
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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3833 on: November 29, 2020, 06:05:44 PM »
Interesting one to note lads, the Juvenile was ten seconds faster than Ballyadams Novice. Could be that the Novice was slowly run, or the Juvenile is a beast. Going to watch them side by side shortly to compare.
Bookies have certainly wasted no time in slashing Zanahiyr into Triumph fav
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3834 on: November 29, 2020, 06:11:52 PM »
Done the sectionals:

Overall Time: Juvenile - 4m.02.1 Novice -4m.12.3
Final Circuit: Juvenile - 3m.28.05 Novice - 3m.35.16
Beginning of final circuit to 3 out: 2m.22.97 Novice - 2m.31.87
3 out to 1 out: Juvenile - 53.38 Novice - 52.28
3 out to line: Juvenile - 64.49 Novice - 63.37

So basically Juveniles were 7 secs faster on final circuit and novices didn't pick up all that much considering they ran a much slower pace, I'd be dubious about that form until something comes out and boosts it. Also think that was an extremely good juvenile race especially for the time of the year.
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3835 on: November 29, 2020, 06:25:34 PM »
Just looked back at my last speed figure for Ballyadam, gave him a 61 for an easy win at Down Royal, gave him 62 today for what looked a slowly run race, I'd imagine he might be a low 70s horse at best on my figures when in a truly run top level race. For reference I gave the Juvenile an 87 today.

Also my figures for recent Supreme winners & their best figure leading up to the race(presuming he goes that way):

Shiskin 80 - 75 (not extended)
Klassical Dream 81 - 78
Summerville Boy 82 - 82
Labaik - 86 - mainly refused  ;D
Altior 94 - 94
Douvan 103  (highest figure I've ever given any horse in any race apart from another 103 also for Douvan!) - 79
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3836 on: November 30, 2020, 07:57:54 AM »
One for today at Wolves:

7:20 Rockesbury 1pt win 11/2 SkyBet

Had been running very well during October and seems to have been given a small break to freshen up. This looks an ideal opportunity to get going again, I expect Rockesbury to get an easy lead and make all.

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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3837 on: December 2, 2020, 07:40:19 AM »
Few from Dundalk today:

2:30 Bare With Me 2pt win 15/2 (various)

Still a maiden but ran a nice race last time out from a bad draw. Drawn well today and eye catching jockey booking.

4:45 Pillar 2pt win 6/1 (Betfair)

This race looks completely devoid of pace apart from Pillar. Drawn well and running well I fancy him to make all.

5:30 Imposing Supreme 1pt win 9/2 (various)

Running well of late and I expect him to keep the rail and race prominently.

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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3838 on: December 4, 2020, 09:43:24 AM »
Two for tonight at Dundalk both in the same race:

7:30 Settle for Bay 2pt win 11/2 (Various) & One Last Look 2pt win 13/2 (Various)

Plenty of pace on here and I feel that will suit both of these selections. One Last Look has been running well over C&D at Listed level. This drop in class should suit. Settle For Bay looks prepped for a huge run here having run over 7f last time back on the all weather. He's 3/3 over C&D and I expect a huge run here.

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Online Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #3839 on: December 4, 2020, 09:52:36 AM »
Interested to see Star Gate today. Should take all the beating. His sectionals were really good on his debut.