Author Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!  (Read 1317677 times)

Offline gamble

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Re: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!
« Reply #16400 on: September 14, 2024, 12:18:08 am »
Putin doesn’t have the minerals to finish this.. what a stupid pointless war.

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Re: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!
« Reply #16401 on: September 15, 2024, 12:04:18 am »
I do wish just once someone from the UK government would remind Dmitry Medvedev that Russia is not the only country with nuclear weapons.
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Offline Red_Mist

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Re: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!
« Reply #16402 on: September 15, 2024, 08:44:11 am »
Oh, no! Putin drew another red line… Shock and horror! Be afraid, be very afraid!
I get what you’re saying. His previous red lines have proved to be just lines, invisible or bendy lines at best.

But I also get the caution. There may come a point (and it may have been these rockets) where suddenly his red lines were indeed red and a line. And once things start unraveling in that direction, are they difficult to stop?

He’s both predictable and unpredictable at the same time. The latter being a dangerous trait that the West are right to be cautious about imho.

Offline A Complete Flop

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Re: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!
« Reply #16403 on: September 15, 2024, 09:33:14 am »
Red lines or not it seems Putin's latest comments have given the west pause for thought. I do wonder what's been said in the back channels between Moscow and Washington that we aren't seeing aired in public,

Also does Ukraine say fcuk it and just do as they please now or wait and take the risk of Trump getting back into the White House and it turning into a disaster for them.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2024, 09:35:46 am by A Complete Flop »
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Offline John C

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I've cleaned the thread after it was locked earlier.
I mean wtaf.

We've tried several threads on the Gaza situation and it inevitably becomes absolutely toxic.
Then to invade this thread (again) is a pain in the fucking arse to be honest.

A-Bomb - as a self confessed previously banned poster, you're only on here because 24/7 talked us round agreeing for you to return.
And it doesn't matter if you're a RAWK supporter or not, you don't get enhanced posting rights for contributing.

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Russia have shot down one of their own S-70 drones, estimated to cost around 1.5 billion rubles, after they lost control of it and it started flying into Ukrainian held territory.

https://defence-blog.com/new-details-emerge-on-russias-s-70-drone-loss-over-ukraine/

Sounds like it's not super high tech (shocker) but the wreckage could give some decent insights into the latest Russian capabilities, which is presumably why they shot it down.

Offline WhereAngelsPlay

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Russia have shot down one of their own S-70 drones, estimated to cost around 1.5 billion rubles, after they lost control of it and it started flying into Ukrainian held territory.

https://defence-blog.com/new-details-emerge-on-russias-s-70-drone-loss-over-ukraine/

Sounds like it's not super high tech (shocker) but the wreckage could give some decent insights into the latest Russian capabilities, which is presumably why they shot it down.

And in other news, all is well in the world.

Seriously though, I wonder if the Ukrainians managed to hack it.
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Offline farawayred

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I got excited by the drone value, but by current rate that's like ~$10k... I know that's a lot of dough for Russia, but still. The important question is can they make more, do they have the necessary electronic components?

Has anyone come across relevant reports on Russia's rocket / drone production capability connected to imported electronics?
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I got excited by the drone value, but by current rate that's like ~$10k... I know that's a lot of dough for Russia, but still. The important question is can they make more, do they have the necessary electronic components?

Has anyone come across relevant reports on Russia's rocket / drone production capability connected to imported electronics?

I believe the ruble value is how much it cost when it was made, not necessarily what it would cost now. It's also one of only 4 prototypes despite being developed for 7 years now, so I'd be surprised if they could produce them at a decent rate, especially as it's supposed to have stealth capabilities and so is likely far more expensive and complex than the majority of drones in use already.

I think the import stuff is hard to gauge. Low tech drones like Shahed's won't be affected much by sanctions and Russia are now producing a lot of them. For production that is affected by sanctions, it might simply make the components more expensive rather than not available, which speeds the decline of their economy but in the short term may appear to be having no effect.

They can also afford to take lower tech approaches with things like guided bombs and rockets simply because they launch them at such a high quantity that even if they miss a lot, they'll eventually hit what the want through sheer probability.

Offline farawayred

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I believe the ruble value is how much it cost when it was made, not necessarily what it would cost now. It's also one of only 4 prototypes despite being developed for 7 years now, so I'd be surprised if they could produce them at a decent rate, especially as it's supposed to have stealth capabilities and so is likely far more expensive and complex than the majority of drones in use already.

I think the import stuff is hard to gauge. Low tech drones like Shahed's won't be affected much by sanctions and Russia are now producing a lot of them. For production that is affected by sanctions, it might simply make the components more expensive rather than not available, which speeds the decline of their economy but in the short term may appear to be having no effect.

They can also afford to take lower tech approaches with things like guided bombs and rockets simply because they launch them at such a high quantity that even if they miss a lot, they'll eventually hit what the want through sheer probability.
Yeah, I agree with all of that. They can also buy from Iran whatever they need at a very reasonable for them price. Interestingly, the economies of all these countries in this new alliance do not adhere to normal standards. Autocratic regimes (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea) can all divert funds in pursuit of a political goal as they find fit regardless of whether it makes economic sense.
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Offline thaddeus

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Putin's found his rightful place alongside the dregs of global society.  Kim, Ali Khamenei, Lukashenko, Kadyrov, Putin - all entirely dependent on each other.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has sent a birthday message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him his "closest comrade".

Kim, congratulating Putin on his 72nd birthday, added that relations between both countries would be raised to a new level.

Relations between Pyongyang and Moscow have deepened since the start of the Ukraine war - in a move that has worried the West.

Separately on Tuesday, Kim said Pyongyang would speed up steps to make his country a military super power with nuclear weapons.

According to Yonhap News quoting North Korean state media KCNA, Kim praised relations between both countries, saying they had become "invincible and eternal", since Putin's visit to Pyongyang in June.

Offline 24/7

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72, eh? A man living in Russia, right? I just googled average male life expectancy of Russian males. It's 67. There is hope that nature will help present a natural end to this horror soon....
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72, eh? A man living in Russia, right? I just googled average male life expectancy of Russian males. It's 67. There is hope that nature will help present a natural end to this horror soon....

I'm pretty sure there's a slight discrepancy between how the average Russian lives and how Putin lives.

Offline thaddeus

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I'm pretty sure there's a slight discrepancy between how the average Russian lives and how Putin lives.
And how many times the average Russian male is sent "over the top" compared to their esteemed leader.

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And how many times the average Russian male is sent "over the top" compared to their esteemed leader.

Those guys don't die as that would mean having to pay their families, they just go "MIA".

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I'm pretty sure there's a slight discrepancy between how the average Russian lives and how Putin lives.
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Offline Red-Soldier

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The west’s support for Ukraine is fading – and that will empower Putin for his next war

The US and Europe are failing to provide decisive military aid. A Trump victory could soon reveal the depths of this mistake

Quote
In the corridors of Brussels, there is a sinking feeling that the political will to help Ukraine prevail over Russian aggression is ebbing – on both sides of the Atlantic. One senior western official told me it may take a “second shock” of the magnitude of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to jolt western countries out of their funk, and spur Europeans to take more radical steps to boost and integrate their own defences. That shock may involve a sudden collapse of Ukrainian frontline defences, another Bucha-style massacre by Russian forces, or perhaps victory for Donald Trump on 5 November. Any of those would be a disaster for Kyiv.

For now, the US is preoccupied with its presidential election and an escalating war in the Middle East that has pushed Moscow’s grinding advance on the Donbas battlefield out of the headlines. France is distracted by a political and fiscal crisis, with Emmanuel Macron’s power at home and influence in Europe waning fast. Germany is paralysed by feuding in its moribund three-party coalition, which may or may not stagger on until a general election due in September 2025.

And the UK is struggling with its own budget woes as the new Labour government focuses on repairing health and public services amid a media furore over dodgy gifts from political donors. Meanwhile, far-right, pro-Russian parties are gaining ground in many European elections, most recently in Austria.

Russia conquered more Ukrainian territory in September than in any month since March 2022. Yet despite Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s trip to the UN general assembly and Washington to present a “victory plan”, and plead for more weapons and a freer hand to use them on Russian soil, American and European attention has drifted away. For Kyiv, these are dangerous and frustrating times.

Joe Biden, increasingly a lame duck, is avoiding any policy step that could compromise Kamala Harris’s chances of keeping Trump out of the White House. That constrains not only his ability to rein in Israel in its battle with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, but also his willingness to authorise Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with US-supplied missiles or European arms containing US components. Biden remains concerned that Vladimir Putin may raise the nuclear stakes or retaliate against the west in ways that could widen the conflict and hand Trump a propaganda stick with which to beat the Democrats.

Britain and France, which supply Ukraine with Storm Shadow and Scalp air-to-ground missiles, cannot permit their unrestricted use against Russian rear bases without a US green light. The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, continues to balk at supplying the Taurus missile system, which Kyiv has long requested to target Russian supply lines and missile launchpads. Scholz’s reluctance is a mixture of electoralism (the Alternative für Deutschland and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are both anti-war), historical (his SDP has always been the party of peace) and a fear of singling out Germany for Russian retribution.

In his parting speeches and interviews, the former Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, expressed public regret that western allies had not supplied Ukraine with more weapons before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, arguing that it would have made Moscow’s offensive harder and may even have deterred it. This is 20-20 hindsight, especially since Stoltenberg is still unwilling to condemn US caution or press openly for releasing deep-strike capabilities.

Retired US major general Gordon “Skip” Davis lamented that “the Biden administration has delayed time and time again”. Speaking on a European Policy Centre (EPC) panel on the battleground situation in Ukraine, he said that Washington had overestimated the likelihood that Putin would escalate the conflict and hence continued to provide just enough to keep Kyiv’s head above water while withholding the means to prevail. “We want not ‘as long as it takes’ but ‘whatever it takes’,” Davis added.

EU officials see a parallel between reluctance to provide gamechanging assistance to Ukraine and the stubborn resistance among major European powers against collective borrowing and joint weapons purchases to boost Ukraine’s and their own defences. Many European countries have emptied their threadbare ammunition stocks to supply Kyiv and are struggling to expand national arms industries, or source supplies abroad.

“There was some momentum behind greater European defence integration earlier this year, when the commission published its defence industrial strategy,” a senior official told me. “But it has faded since the European elections with the political problems in key capitals.” Now, it may take an earthquake such as the return to power of Nato-sceptical Trump to renew energy and put more money behind EU defence efforts. If Harris wins, the risk is that EU capitals ease up and revert to relying on US protection, as some did after Biden defeated Trump in 2020.

Ukraine can ill afford to wait for such a “second shock” to jolt western governments as its forces are bleeding out daily in the war of attrition imposed by a bigger enemy. “You can’t expect Ukraine to sustain another 30 months when our own country is the battlefield and subjected to daily strikes,” Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, told the same EPC panel. “What we don’t see is a long-term strategy of sustained support. Otherwise, the Russian victory scenario will progress.”

For European governments, regardless of their domestic predicaments, the choice ought to be clear. Support Ukraine more decisively now, including with deep-strike capabilities, or face a far worse strategic position next year, with an emboldened Putin rearming for his next war of conquest.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/09/west-vladimir-putin-ukraine-donald-trump

Offline JP!

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There's no doubt the 'other war' (bit like 'The Scottish Play' innit) has unfocused a lot of minds.  Which is a bit fucking mad, really.
I don't agree, he'd go to Legoland. Bye.

Offline 24/7

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There's no doubt the 'other war' (bit like 'The Scottish Play' innit) has unfocused a lot of minds.  Which is a bit fucking mad, really.
To an extent, I'd disagree. Strategically. *nothing* has changed – and that's a massive issue. Maybe the media has been complicit in shifting the public's mindset and/or focus when it comes to Ukraine, but the policy (or clear lack thereof) from the more dominant Western ally partners is the real cause of the situation Ukraine now faces – outmanned and outgunned, with source bases of Russian strategic assets remaining largely out of reach.

The article clearly points to the real problems – Germany's reluctance to commit, USA's hesitation as its people play the Political Survival Game, and the UK's whistling and twiddling of thumbs as it awaits the decision of its real paymaster.
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Offline Indomitable_Carp

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There's no doubt the 'other war' (bit like 'The Scottish Play' innit) has unfocused a lot of minds.  Which is a bit fucking mad, really.

To an extent, I'd disagree. Strategically. *nothing* has changed – and that's a massive issue. Maybe the media has been complicit in shifting the public's mindset and/or focus when it comes to Ukraine, but the policy (or clear lack thereof) from the more dominant Western ally partners is the real cause of the situation Ukraine now faces – outmanned and outgunned, with source bases of Russian strategic assets remaining largely out of reach.

The article clearly points to the real problems – Germany's reluctance to commit, USA's hesitation as its people play the Political Survival Game, and the UK's whistling and twiddling of thumbs as it awaits the decision of its real paymaster.

I think taking in the wider view it really has been disasterous in that respect. So much of the goodwill that surrounded Ukraine and the basic notion of opposing wanton state aggresssion has been squandered. And it will cost us, because it looks like we really don't have the collective will to do right by Ukraine. It's now or never to give them the resources and political support to use those resources, or else we are merely delaying the inevitable.

If Russia comes out on top, what we are left with is a hostile and aggressive foreign power with an economy entirely geared towards a war footing, led by a dictator with dreams of further imperial expansion and who knows the West is weak, divided and lacking in the will and resources to oppose them.

All of that against the backdrop of UN authority and the idea of international rule of law having almost completely collapsed, with the faith of the developing world in these institutions having been fatally undermined. Dog eat dog is the new order of the 21st century.

« Last Edit: October 9, 2024, 10:19:45 am by Indomitable_Carp »

Offline Red-Soldier

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I think taking in the wider view it really has been disasterous in that respect. So much of the goodwill that surrounded Ukraine and the basic notion of opposing wanton state aggresssion has been squandered. And it will cost us, because it looks like we really don't have the collective will to do right by Ukraine. It's now or never to give them the resources and political support to use those resources, or else we are merely delaying the inevitable.

If Russia comes out on top, what we are left with is a hostile and aggressive foreign power with an economy entirely geared towards a war footing, led by a dictator with dreams of further imperial expansion and who knows the West is weak, divided and lacking in the will and resources to oppose them.

All of that against the backdrop of UN authority and the idea of international rule of law having almost completely collapsed, with the faith of the developing world in these institutions having been fatally undermined.

I totally agree.

I don't think it can be underestimated how much the West has damaged itself, recently.  And it will have far reaching impacts, now and in the future.

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To an extent, I'd disagree. Strategically. *nothing* has changed – and that's a massive issue. Maybe the media has been complicit in shifting the public's mindset and/or focus when it comes to Ukraine, but the policy (or clear lack thereof) from the more dominant Western ally partners is the real cause of the situation Ukraine now faces – outmanned and outgunned, with source bases of Russian strategic assets remaining largely out of reach.

The article clearly points to the real problems – Germany's reluctance to commit, USA's hesitation as its people play the Political Survival Game, and the UK's whistling and twiddling of thumbs as it awaits the decision of its real paymaster.

Think the trouble is once the US checks out no one really fills the gap (one thing, unbelieveably, Trump has a point about).  And they've been in that state for a while really.  I would probably argue there should be a bigger focus on supporting Ukraine than trying to split the baby in the Middle East (but then maybe there's opportunism in that), but (IMO at least), they've prioritised one over the other, in the sense it seems to takeup a massive majority of their time, energy media briefings etc. That probably skirts the line of discussing it, so, apologies.

Agree with you though that Europe should do more, Germany have been utterly fucking useless throughout.  Also agree that the policy of limiting what Ukraine can do with the arms its given has been very little but counterproductive. Rapidly losing faith that anyone seems to care about winning this war any more.
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Offline Draex

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Think the trouble is once the US checks out no one really fills the gap (one thing, unbelieveably, Trump has a point about).  And they've been in that state for a while really.  I would probably argue there should be a bigger focus on supporting Ukraine than trying to split the baby in the Middle East (but then maybe there's opportunism in that), but (IMO at least), they've prioritised one over the other, in the sense it seems to takeup a massive majority of their time, energy media briefings etc. That probably skirts the line of discussing it, so, apologies.

Agree with you though that Europe should do more, Germany have been utterly fucking useless throughout.  Also agree that the policy of limiting what Ukraine can do with the arms its given has been very little but counterproductive. Rapidly losing faith that anyone seems to care about winning this war any more.

The US are fucking cowards, they literally were part of the Budapest Memorandum.

It's bad enough they've drip fed support, stopping the UK/France from authorising long range into Russia strikes is just utter bullshit, it's the quickest way to peace.

Offline Indomitable_Carp

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The US are fucking cowards, they literally were part of the Budapest Memorandum.

It's bad enough they've drip fed support, stopping the UK/France from authorising long range into Russia strikes is just utter bullshit, it's the quickest way to peace.

It's depressing and short sighted, but domestic political calculations always come into this. Biden has effectively lost all authority. I think the thought process is, if he greenlights missile strikes now, and this leads Russia into some unexpected escalation just before the US election, that could help tip the scales in Trumps favour. Which would be even worse for Ukraine than not authorising the strikes.

I'm not really sure I buy that myself, as I'm not sure how likely foreign policy is to swing the election. And even if it was, surely acting decisively sends a better signal than endless tip-toeing into oblivion.

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It's depressing and short sighted, but domestic political calculations always come into this. Biden has effectively lost all authority. I think the thought process is, if he greenlights missile strikes now, and this leads Russia into some unexpected escalation just before the US election, that could help tip the scales in Trumps favour. Which would be even worse for Ukraine than not authorising the strikes.

I'm not really sure I buy that myself, as I'm not sure how likely foreign policy is to swing the election. And even if it was, surely acting decisively sends a better signal than endless tip-toeing into oblivion.


Foreign policy might not swing the election, but money does and billions spent abroad is not going to be a good look with the election 3 weeks away and the country in the state its in, ultimately Biden and his people will have a better idea of what the American people are thinking than we do.

I suspect after the election (especially if Harris wins) there will be one last large aid package from Biden.
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Offline Draex

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It's depressing and short sighted, but domestic political calculations always come into this. Biden has effectively lost all authority. I think the thought process is, if he greenlights missile strikes now, and this leads Russia into some unexpected escalation just before the US election, that could help tip the scales in Trumps favour. Which would be even worse for Ukraine than not authorising the strikes.

I'm not really sure I buy that myself, as I'm not sure how likely foreign policy is to swing the election. And even if it was, surely acting decisively sends a better signal than endless tip-toeing into oblivion.

The US have been extremely weak, they have so much hardware they could have sent such as Bradleys which Ukraine use to excellent effect, they seem more concerned with anything which will bolster their own economy rather than win the war. The whole election thing again is a cowardly response, as Ukraine have been asking for long range strikes for a long time.

I'm even more pissed off at Europe, we've really let Ukraine down, collectively Europe dwarfs Russia but it's allowing Hungary to basically block billions in aid. Get tough and fuck them off.

Offline Indomitable_Carp

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Foreign policy might not swing the election, but money does and billions spent abroad is not going to be a good look with the election 3 weeks away and the country in the state its in, ultimately Biden and his people will have a better idea of what the American people are thinking than we do.

I suspect after the election (especially if Harris wins) there will be one last large aid package from Biden.

You're not wrong about that.

The thing is, Ukraine already have the missiles, they are just waiting on the green light to use them more effectively. Of course, those missiles will need to be replaced, but not until after the election.

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It's depressing and short sighted, but domestic political calculations always come into this. Biden has effectively lost all authority. I think the thought process is, if he greenlights missile strikes now, and this leads Russia into some unexpected escalation just before the US election, that could help tip the scales in Trumps favour. Which would be even worse for Ukraine than not authorising the strikes.

I'm not really sure I buy that myself, as I'm not sure how likely foreign policy is to swing the election. And even if it was, surely acting decisively sends a better signal than endless tip-toeing into oblivion.


I agree. Nov 5 will change all US policy. If Harris wins, she will be in the WH full time Nov 6...and she is 110% for Ukraine.

If Trump wins, Biden will be thinking about his legacy. So some things could change drastically now that he doesn't have to protect his VP and other Dem politicians.
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It does make me think 'we' should be less reliant on foreign weapons components. Unless the plan is not to get involved unless uncle Sam fully backs us.
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Foreign policy might not swing the election, but money does and billions spent abroad is not going to be a good look with the election 3 weeks away and the country in the state its in, ultimately Biden and his people will have a better idea of what the American people are thinking than we do.

I suspect after the election (especially if Harris wins) there will be one last large aid package from Biden.

One of the main Republican attack lines recently has been a lack of support for hurricane victims while billions are sent to Ukraine. It's nonsensical of course, and many have been quick to point out that Republicans voted against more money for hurricane support literally weeks/months ago, but it's an angle they're pushing aggressively nonetheless.

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The US have been extremely weak, they have so much hardware they could have sent such as Bradleys which Ukraine use to excellent effect, they seem more concerned with anything which will bolster their own economy rather than win the war. The whole election thing again is a cowardly response, as Ukraine have been asking for long range strikes for a long time.

I'm even more pissed off at Europe, we've really let Ukraine down, collectively Europe dwarfs Russia but it's allowing Hungary to basically block billions in aid. Get tough and fuck them off.

Think from the American perspective they don't have many cards left in their hand. Ultimately, there's no way the NATO powers will go as far as using nuclear strikes to thwart the Russians, so they don't have the nuclear deterrent working in their favour in case the Russians do use nukes in Ukraine. Ultimately, as long as the war stays on an equal footing as it is now, there really isn't much the Americans can do.

The Ukrainians, for their part, refuse to use mass mobilization, which is also an issue that also defines what the other NATO countries are willing to give to them. As long as they aren't really serious about winning, then there is no point in giving all the weapons they are requesting. It is one of the few things that the Ukrainian boots on the ground are complaining about, that there are still many who sip their lattes in Kyiv while many of them are dying in places like Vuhledar.

It's a chess match at the moment. If the Russians are serious about using NK soldiers on front line duty, then I can see the NATO powers responding in kind.

Online Schmidt

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Think from the American perspective they don't have many cards left in their hand. Ultimately, there's no way the NATO powers will go as far as using nuclear strikes to thwart the Russians, so they don't have the nuclear deterrent working in their favour in case the Russians do use nukes in Ukraine. Ultimately, as long as the war stays on an equal footing as it is now, there really isn't much the Americans can do.

The Ukrainians, for their part, refuse to use mass mobilization, which is also an issue that also defines what the other NATO countries are willing to give to them. As long as they aren't really serious about winning, then there is no point in giving all the weapons they are requesting. It is one of the few things that the Ukrainian boots on the ground are complaining about, that there are still many who sip their lattes in Kyiv while many of them are dying in places like Vuhledar.

It's a chess match at the moment. If the Russians are serious about using NK soldiers on front line duty, then I can see the NATO powers responding in kind.

I think that's a bit unfair. Ukraine have avoided mass mobilization partly because the benefit of mobilization has to be balanced against the impact it'll have on the economy, and partly because they might not even be able to equip that many recruits. They requested enough equipment last summer to equip 14 brigades for their offensive and got less than 4 brigades worth for example.

To be fair I haven't seen any complaints from other countries about the lack of mobilization. I do wonder how much longer Ukraine can avoid it though, they seem to be outnumbered in every region they're fighting in.

Offline Draex

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Think from the American perspective they don't have many cards left in their hand. Ultimately, there's no way the NATO powers will go as far as using nuclear strikes to thwart the Russians, so they don't have the nuclear deterrent working in their favour in case the Russians do use nukes in Ukraine. Ultimately, as long as the war stays on an equal footing as it is now, there really isn't much the Americans can do.

The Ukrainians, for their part, refuse to use mass mobilization, which is also an issue that also defines what the other NATO countries are willing to give to them. As long as they aren't really serious about winning, then there is no point in giving all the weapons they are requesting. It is one of the few things that the Ukrainian boots on the ground are complaining about, that there are still many who sip their lattes in Kyiv while many of them are dying in places like Vuhledar.

It's a chess match at the moment. If the Russians are serious about using NK soldiers on front line duty, then I can see the NATO powers responding in kind.

Sorry no I don't agree, America (and Europe) has drip fed aid especially hardware and amunition, they don't care about Ukranian lives. Not sure what nukes have to do with it, America is blocking the UK/France from allowed Ukraine to use their long range missiles on Russian soil, the biggest thing allowing Russia to advance is their aviation and the glide bombs which over time just destroy any defences in a sector and the meat waves advance.

America blocked f16's from being sent, they have slowed down training of pilots.

American don't want Ukraine to win, they want a never ending war to buffering their own manufacturing economy, that's the only explanation of the last 2 years of weak support.

Offline Bend It Like Aurelio

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I think that's a bit unfair. Ukraine have avoided mass mobilization partly because the benefit of mobilization has to be balanced against the impact it'll have on the economy, and partly because they might not even be able to equip that many recruits. They requested enough equipment last summer to equip 14 brigades for their offensive and got less than 4 brigades worth for example.

To be fair I haven't seen any complaints from other countries about the lack of mobilization. I do wonder how much longer Ukraine can avoid it though, they seem to be outnumbered in every region they're fighting in.

Think the limitations in sending large amounts of armour at that time stems from the fact that there wasn’t enough training capacity to train crews. Even with the limited amount sent this eventually played out when many Leopards were lost due to accidents or misuse of the equipment during the offensive that left many modern variants captured by the Russians.

As for the mobilization issue, it’s more of the various troops on the ground that are complaining why they can’t end this war decisively. The longer things drag on the more people die. I am sure from the Ukranian point of view is that they are piling up the Russian bodies and blowing up more tanks, and time is on their side. But time costs people, and the bitterness from continual combat deaths stemming from defensive actions which end up in retreats is building up in resentment for the leadership. Putin also believes he has time on his side, and therefore we are largely in a stalemate.

Sorry no I don't agree, America (and Europe) has drip fed aid especially hardware and amunition, they don't care about Ukranian lives. Not sure what nukes have to do with it, America is blocking the UK/France from allowed Ukraine to use their long range missiles on Russian soil, the biggest thing allowing Russia to advance is their aviation and the glide bombs which over time just destroy any defences in a sector and the meat waves advance.

America blocked f16's from being sent, they have slowed down training of pilots.

American don't want Ukraine to win, they want a never ending war to buffering their own manufacturing economy, that's the only explanation of the last 2 years of weak support.


The thing about continual support for Ukraine is based largely on new manufacturing capacity to produce new weapons that can replenish stocks. While the Russian economy is on a full war footing, we know that the same can’t be said for Western powers. To increase military aid is to reduce operational capability in said countries. And for some this could be a one shot proposition, so many are reluctant to take those decisions.

While the US still has large Cold War stocks remaining, for example, there are no new large scale manufacturing of AFV’s (or new designs thereof) for example, that can fill the void. And the old vehicles that are transferred often need upgrades ‘or downgrades’ which require work to be done with limited tank overhaul capacity. The funding for these projects are often tied down in quagmire as congress refuses to fund large tranches for Ukraine even though, oddly enough as you rightly pointed it out, the money gets cycled back down to American industries who will be doing these things.

Air defense is another, western countries have traditionally had very little investment in air defense systems. Anything given to the Ukranians now are from operational units in Europe and the US. While new build systems such as the IRIS T is coming online, they are only building something like 4 systems a year next year. The Germans themselves have lagged behind expanding arms production as popular sentiment there dislikes giving public money to private enterprises like Rhinemetall to make more weapons. Many of the countries that have sent Leopard 2’s to Ukraine were given assurances by the Germans that they will have new manufactured stocks to replace them, they have yet to materialise in any shape or form.

Then you move onto issues like sending fighter aircraft in large mounts to airfields that are not able to be defended with the lack of air defence. Traditionally, western powers defend their airspace by using air power instead of ground based systems, but a lot of their fighters fly from prepared fields with large support structures and teams. Without large scale AWACS capability (they are receiving one aircraft from Sweden soon) this is still just a pipe dream. So there is no point as of yet to send huge amount of fighters there, as all they will become are targets on the ground for Russian missiles.

Don’t believe the conspiracies. Everything has a logical explanation.