Author Topic: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread  (Read 193278 times)

Online Buck Pete

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The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« on: November 21, 2010, 10:02:57 AM »
I know a few of us on here did this lad this week.
Matteo Mannassero shot an 8 under last night and nearly caught Poulter. I had him EW so 50 quid back.

This lad is the new Tiger without a doubt. I will be lumping on him in all 4 majors next year if he plays them which I'm sure he will.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2010, 10:43:16 AM by Barney_Rubble »

Offline markay_stinkay

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2010, 12:27:27 PM »
Have a look on Digital Spy the morning before X Factor Results - they've usually got the order right, and have heard a lot of people making hundreds of quid through that. Will book mark DS and have a look next week.

What's the bet then?

Wagner (2.5)
Katie Waissel (3.5)
Paije Richardson (5)
Mary Bryne (13)
Cher Lloyd (15)
Rebecca Ferguson (67)
Matt Cardle (101)
One Direction (126)

Offline RedStevie1

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2010, 12:30:11 PM »
I know a few of us on here did this lad this week.
Matteo Mannassero shot an 8 under last night and nearly caught Poulter. I had him EW so 50 quid back.

This lad is the new Tiger without a doubt. I will be lumping on him in all 4 majors next year if he plays them which I'm sure he will.

He was absolutely fantastic for the last few holes I watched, only going to get better, agree with you, this week won't be the last time i'll back him too.

Good to have a non football thread.

Offline wardides

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2010, 01:32:46 PM »
Apparentely its

Matt
One direction
Cher
Rebecca
Paije
Mary
Katie
Wagner

in the voting order.Matt top towards the vag at the bottom.Havnt a clue how true or trustworthy that is though.
Bet 1, Lyon v B Munich...No Hat Trick @ 1.03.
Little does he know, he's left the Beatles and joined fucking Razorlight.

Offline markay_stinkay

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2010, 01:38:05 PM »
I don't watch it, but I understand that would leave Katie and Wagner for the judges to decide and they'll easily keep Katie?

Offline wardides

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2010, 01:38:44 PM »
I don't watch it, but I understand that would leave Katie and Wagner for the judges to decide and they'll easily keep Katie?

Exactamundo.
Bet 1, Lyon v B Munich...No Hat Trick @ 1.03.
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Offline The G in Gerrard

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2010, 01:39:51 PM »
I don't watch it, but I understand that would leave Katie and Wagner for the judges to decide and they'll easily keep Katie?

If Wagner is in bottom 2, me burping would get me kept in than him ;)

Offline Hightown Phil

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2010, 11:52:11 AM »
I don't watch it, but I understand that would leave Katie and Wagner for the judges to decide and they'll easily keep Katie?

I'll knock that Racing thing up tonight. Remind me what exactly you wanted to know.

Offline Hightown Phil

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2010, 12:54:13 PM »
Backed Quiros in the Golf this weekend. Then opened the RP and see Steve Palmer has put him up too. Happy days.

Theory is, he struggles on a course where accuracy is imperative, there's no tree lined fairways here and there's wide fairways that should be right up his street. He could go very low at some point this weekend. 80/1 the first 5 places with Ladbrokes. That'll do for me.

Offline Hightown Phil

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2010, 01:37:07 PM »
Yes. Cut to 50's now. I rule the world.

Or probably the Racing Post tipping him up has caused it. One or the other.

Online Buck Pete

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2010, 01:51:53 PM »
I take it you've gone e/w at that price? Thought he was 80s for a top 5 finish for a minute, there.

Shit so did I. Was scrambling frantically for my Laddies account details!!!

Offline markay_stinkay

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2010, 08:45:27 PM »
I'll knock that Racing thing up tonight. Remind me what exactly you wanted to know.

Some more info about the weights and the race would be good, ta.

I see Denman is now into 4/1. How did that horse you doubled it with get on?

Offline AdamR

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2010, 08:49:56 PM »
fancied quiros myself

quiros and parry each way

i did fancy mcdowell but im gonna hope hes about 6 or more off the lead and his odds go out to get on him

Offline Hightown Phil

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2010, 08:53:50 PM »
Some more info about the weights and the race would be good, ta.

I see Denman is now into 4/1. How did that horse you doubled it with get on?

He was the most impressive winner of a race I've seen in a long time.

Want an explanation of handicapping?

fancied quiros myself

quiros and parry each way

i did fancy mcdowell but im gonna hope hes about 6 or more off the lead and his odds go out to get on him

Thing with McDowell for me is he's surely got to be a bit burnt out with the amount of golf he's played recently?

Offline AdamR

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2010, 09:02:44 PM »
One last push hopefully.

Online Buck Pete

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2010, 09:11:40 PM »
Mannassero and Parry Main Bets.

Parry - 180 the win and a gargantuan 40-1 last night on the Place (20's now) - Mug layers on betfair.
Matteo - 45-1.

Small ew's on Maybin and Oosthuizen

Target golf here we go.

Offline markay_stinkay

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2010, 09:43:17 PM »
He was the most impressive winner of a race I've seen in a long time.

Want an explanation of handicapping?

Does that mean you've got 32/1 on Denman? Nice.

Can do. Whether or not i'll understand is another matter! Think you said you were gonna price race up too or something. Should I be happy with my measley 5/1 on Denman? :P

Offline -Sad Fuck-

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2010, 09:55:07 PM »
I'm on Englnd outright at 11/4, and I've just backed Broad on the run spread.

No specials for this test in particular stand out to me.

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2010, 10:02:27 PM »
I have no idea where to find the stats specifically for the Ashes, but Ricky Ponting has averaged 54.83 runs in 145 test matches, so the 9/2 looks a good price for top Aussie batter to me.

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2010, 10:04:44 PM »
Where's this?

I can only see 7/2.

Offline Wholey

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #20 on: November 24, 2010, 10:05:12 PM »
Give me 10 minutes and I'll get the figures.
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Offline markay_stinkay

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #21 on: November 24, 2010, 10:05:43 PM »
Sorry, yes, 7/2.

Offline Hightown Phil

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2010, 10:06:58 PM »
Does that mean you've got 32/1 on Denman? Nice.

Can do. Whether or not i'll understand is another matter! Think you said you were gonna price race up too or something. Should I be happy with my measley 5/1 on Denman? :P

Haha. It's straightforward once you get your head round it. Will sort it later.

Yeah, got, in effect 32/1 on the beast.

Ashes wise, I've backed Ian Bell -2.5 against Marcus North in the first innings. Bell is in great form at the minute, and Marcus North is fat and shit.

Offline Wholey

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2010, 10:13:04 PM »
Ponting's average at home against England overall is 54.74 (1040 runs scored in 20 innings with 1 not out).

In England's last two trips down under it is 66.20 as he had a woeful series in 98/99 where he only averaged 11.75.

His overall average against England is 48.22 so he does perform better at home against us.

« Last Edit: November 24, 2010, 10:35:22 PM by Wholey »
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Offline wayne38491

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2010, 10:48:32 PM »
Also backed Ponting 1st Innings top scorer @ 7/2.

Averages 54+ against England at home and averages 66+ at Brisbane.

Offline markay_stinkay

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #25 on: November 24, 2010, 10:56:03 PM »
Cheers Wholey.

I'll have an ante-post on Ponting top Aussie for the series at 7/2, then for a bit of fun back him top Aussie for each test at the same price and see how I get on.

Offline Wholey

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #26 on: November 24, 2010, 11:19:39 PM »
My antepost bets ...

England to win @ 2/1.
Ponting to be Oz top run scorer @ 7/2.
Bell to outscore Hussey @ 5/6.
Cook to score more than 292 runs @ 5/6. (Fuck it, I know he's under pressure a little but this is too low when compared to all the other openers.)

I did want to back Anderson to take a 5er at some point during the series but I can't find it anywhere.

First test ...

I've had a punt on Swann to take less than 2 wickets in the first innings at 11/8. Spin hasn't played well in Brisbane lately so I'll take the risk that it will be the seamers doing all the work.

Waiting on the toss but I'll be playing either Broad to be top batsman at 40/1 or Anderson to take most wickets at 11/4.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2010, 11:26:59 PM by Wholey »
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Offline Hightown Phil

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2010, 12:54:55 AM »
Right, Saturday's Hennessey (I can't be arsed pricing it up) and the explanation of the weights. Here we go.

Firstly, the concept of handicapping is that every horse should cross the line at the same time, and the job of the handicapper is to allocate each horse racing what is called a 'mark' and that will determine what weight they carry in relation to the other horses in the race, unless they are the highest rated horse in the race in which case they are assigned 11-12 over jumps. The lower your mark, the less weight you carry in relation to the top weight. Just think of it as the handicapper trying to slow down the best horses.

Top weight in this carries 11-12, and Denman off a mark of 182 will saddle that. So for every 1lb below that number of 182, you carry 1lb less. So if you're running off 165, you'll get 17lbs from Denman and race off a weight of 10-9, and 5lbs would be 11-7 and so on and so forth. With horse racing, the minimum weight in a National Hunt handicap is 10-0 (unless your jockey is a youngster and is permitted a claim which I'll explain later. So, as a result, there's horses in this race running out of the handicap as they're handicap rating is in excess of 26lbs below Denman. Take Niche Market as an example, this will help us understand the concept of a jockey claiming weight as well. Niche Market is racing off a mark of 148, which as you can work out is 34lbs below Denman, so in effect he should be carrying 34lbs less and running off 9-6. But, as a consequence of the minimum weight being 10-0, he is forced to run off that, and effectively he has an 8lb penalty. If Denman was out of the race and Neptune Collonges was top weight off 11-12 off his mark of 164, he'd be 16lbs below that and racing off 10-10. But Denman is in it, so Niche Market is forced to carry 8lbs more than he otherwise would. Every horse rated below 156 will be running with more weight than they otherwise should be, this is known as being out of the handicap. Over jumps, most work to a theory of 1lb per length, so if you're 8lbs wrong, you're basically (and this is very basic to help you understand and not in any way to be taken quite so literally as it sounds) 8 lengths worse off before you even start the race.

Now, as I said before there's the concept of a claiming jockey. When you're first starting as a jockey, you are permitted what is called an allowance. As you ride more winners, you gradually lose it. Generally speaking, you start off with 10lbs, then 7lbs, then 5lbs, then 3lbs and then after you ride a certain number of winners, you're forced to ride without it. So, we'll go back to Niche Market, his real racing weight is 10-0, and the jockey, Ian Popham, is allowed to claim 5lbs. So as a result, Niche Market will be running off 9-9, it's not listed on the racecard in this way however and you have to manually subtract the weight yourself.

Any queries, I'll answer 'em.

Offline JM10

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #28 on: November 25, 2010, 01:46:27 AM »
Thanks for that mate, always been interested in this but never took the time to look it up. Seems a pretty good introductory guide.
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Offline JM10

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #29 on: November 25, 2010, 03:13:08 AM »
Been watching the cricket odds tick over on PP and Betfair tonight and there is definitely money to be made. Seems to be some major discrepancies between the prices on offer at certain times, not huge amounts of money but seems pretty easy to turn a decent little profit. Probably gonna watch it for a night or two and then get stuck into it.
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Offline redforlife

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #30 on: November 25, 2010, 07:35:41 AM »
Cheers for that Phil, nice easy to understand guide.
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Offline markay_stinkay

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #31 on: November 25, 2010, 02:05:33 PM »
Cheers Phil.

Offline AdamR

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2010, 06:43:39 PM »
Time for Mcdowell for me i think.  7 off the lead, Karlsson in front but will no doubt fade away like he does!

Hopefully a good day/night for G-mac!!!

Offline Wholey

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2010, 07:01:18 PM »
After Doherty finding success last night, I'm resigned to my bet on Swann taking less than 2 wickets in the first innings is a loser so I'm going to combat it with the following for tonight's play.

Australia to score 400 or less @ 5/6 with Ladbrokes. I know everyone is saying that this is a batsman friendly pitch but I saw enough last night to suggest that this won't simply be a case of Australia going in here and posting a big score. There was signs of movement all day and I reckon if Broad, Anderson and Finn find the right length then they'll be rewarded. Australia will have a first innings lead but I can't see it being more than 140 so I'm happy to have a blast that we'll skittle them out before they get to 400.
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Offline wardides

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #34 on: November 25, 2010, 08:05:14 PM »
Lembit first to go tonight 7/1. May have a nibble.Reckon theyl want to keep Gillian in just to piss her off.Stacey,Shaun and Dom are definately safe I reckon. Basically leaves Lembit and Sheryl Gascgoine who would be the only worry.Shes at evens for some reasons not sure why that is, maybe the bookies know a bit more.
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Offline Frank.

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #35 on: November 25, 2010, 08:56:21 PM »
Lembit's immune

Offline wardides

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #36 on: November 25, 2010, 08:57:51 PM »
Lembit's immune

So I just saw. Good thing I didnt go near it so.Sheryl Gascgoine just shortened right up to 2/5.
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Offline Mr Mojo Risin'

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #37 on: November 26, 2010, 12:30:22 PM »
CLEAR PRAISE in the 1.25  lingfield stands out a mile.
Has hardly been penalised for his last pisstaking win there,
i think this goes infront and wins looking over its shoulder.


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Offline Hightown Phil

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #38 on: November 26, 2010, 12:35:18 PM »
Backed Quiros in the Golf this weekend. Then opened the RP and see Steve Palmer has put him up too. Happy days.

Theory is, he struggles on a course where accuracy is imperative, there's no tree lined fairways here and there's wide fairways that should be right up his street. He could go very low at some point this weekend. 80/1 the first 5 places with Ladbrokes. That'll do for me.

-5 today. 4 shots off the pace. Another couple of low scores and we'll be in the mix. Played Alvaro lad.

Ashes wise, I've backed Ian Bell -2.5 against Marcus North in the first innings. Bell is in great form at the minute, and Marcus North is fat and shit.

I knew he was shit, but I didn't think it'd be quite that easy.

Offline choi

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Re: The NON-FOOTBALL BETS thread
« Reply #39 on: November 26, 2010, 02:22:08 PM »
Any decent shouts on the horses for later? Gonna stick a couple of quid on one when i'm doing the footy.
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