Author Topic: Chasing the Title  (Read 977629 times)

Online Barneylfc

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5720 on: February 11, 2019, 07:29:23 PM »
Don’t think it can be played on a CL night (moot point if they’re both in it). Presumably that’s a free midweek? If anything I think it would be moved later rather than brought forward, ideally United will still be needing points for top 4 whenever they play.

It can be. There's been numerous Spanish and Italian league games played in recent seasons on the same night as Champions League games. I think a small bribe payment to UEFA enables it.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5721 on: February 11, 2019, 07:30:27 PM »
It can be. There's been numerous Spanish and Italian league games played in recent seasons on the same night as Champions League games. I think a small bribe payment to UEFA enables it.

Thought it couldn’t be televised though. Not the most thoroughly researched answer I admit!

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5722 on: February 11, 2019, 07:34:50 PM »
Thought it couldn’t be televised though. Not the most thoroughly researched answer I admit!

You're probably right with that. And no way would they not televise it.

Offline SteveLFC

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5723 on: February 11, 2019, 08:17:18 PM »
There's people who have said we lost the Champions League final because we didn't have the option of Coutinho to replace Salah when he went off

Yeah and if only we bought Messi to replace Salah when he's injured.

Offline JC the Messiah

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5724 on: February 11, 2019, 08:27:54 PM »
I backed us to win the league before the season started. More in hope than expectation. I actually backed us each-way as well, I'm not a madman.

We must doing OK, because we're about evens to win the league now, and I got far better odds than that. So, that means we're in a far better position, closer to winning the league than we were at the start of this memorable season. Evens, that's a coin-flip. That's bloody awesome.

I also backed Leeds (each-way) to win the championship. You can't get everything right :D
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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5725 on: February 11, 2019, 08:28:55 PM »
You're probably right with that. And no way would they not televise it.
Assuming that it does get postponed, I reckon it will be nailed on to move to the final mideeek of the season.
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Offline SteveLFC

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5726 on: February 11, 2019, 08:30:02 PM »
some people got disheartened when City thumped Chelsea.....

Not me though. The way we dismantled Bournemouth was absolutely brilliant and if we build on that performance and make it a more regular thing then it doesn't matter how many 6-0's they hand out to opposition


Exactly, it will make winning the league even more sweeter to finish above the team that the media cant stop wanking over.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5727 on: February 11, 2019, 08:54:50 PM »
538 isn't making much sense to me. We are at 51%, Shitty at 47%. That's much closer than it was before the weekend.

It's also predicting that we both end on 92 points, with them having a better goal difference.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5728 on: February 11, 2019, 09:47:32 PM »
538 isn't making much sense to me. We are at 51%, Shitty at 47%. That's much closer than it was before the weekend.

It's also predicting that we both end on 92 points, with them having a better goal difference.

Bin that site. It will make you go mad.

Offline ToneLa

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5729 on: February 11, 2019, 09:59:27 PM »
Huh City have still played one more game

Good!

Offline End Product

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5730 on: February 11, 2019, 11:19:12 PM »
538 isn't making much sense to me. We are at 51%, Shitty at 47%. That's much closer than it was before the weekend.

It's also predicting that we both end on 92 points, with them having a better goal difference.

It has also predicted every election wrong for like 6 years
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Offline End Product

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5731 on: February 11, 2019, 11:22:03 PM »
Has that Manchester Derby been confirmed for that midweek? I know it was due to be played on the 16/17th March which is FA cup quarters weekend, so would need to be rearranged if 1 or both of those go through, but just figured it would be played later in the season (April time) if it was to be rearranged

Not officially,  unofficially that's the highly likely date.
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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5732 on: February 11, 2019, 11:28:20 PM »
538 isn't making much sense to me. We are at 51%, Shitty at 47%. That's much closer than it was before the weekend.

It's also predicting that we both end on 92 points, with them having a better goal difference.

Yes the Everton and Chelsea results have lowered our chances in their model's opinion by about 10%.  For one in that they've played one game more so for both the bookies and now xG models/simulators at the moment we have one more game to play so more chances for something else to happen.

Next is that ManC put up best in the world numbers when it comes to xG and non-shot xG differential.  So for the Chelsea game which the model thought was a relatively hard game for ManC and it wasn't the model is then going to slide that way  So if you're talking about a model that values those things when evaluating chances then it will edge towards ManC which it does as it rates ManC the best team in the world with us currently 3rd.

Just like anything it's a tool, a useful one at that, but certainly not to be taken without some context of why it's doing what it's doing.

It has also predicted every election wrong for like 6 years

For one that would be wrong.

For two, so you're answer to math problems isn't to figure out why they seem wrong but to say Math is stupid and should be ignored?  Probably not the best idea.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2019, 11:31:48 PM by BrandoLFC »

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5733 on: February 11, 2019, 11:44:28 PM »
It has also predicted every election wrong for like 6 years

That's a misrepresentation of what polls are and what they aren't. In a tight race, polls are 'right' if they say it's a tight race, but the chances of picking the eventual winner get closer to 50:50 the tighter the race.

538 predicted Clinton would get 48% of the vote and Trump 45%. The final vote was 48% Clinton, 46% Trump. They said that Clinton had a 70% chance of winning - a two-thirds/one-third chance.

In the 2017 election 538 had three likely options from a narrow Tory victory, to an unlikely Tory landslide if the youth vote didn't turn out or the Tories losing their majority. The last being the one that actually happened.

The point is, 538 is not a fortune teller predicting the future. They analyse the polls and put forward the most likely scenarios giving the probability of each outcome.
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Offline End Product

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5734 on: February 12, 2019, 12:08:35 AM »


In the 2017 election 538 had three likely options from a narrow Tory victory, to an unlikely Tory landslide if the youth vote didn't turn out or the Tories losing their majority. The last being the one that actually happened.



Haha what a stellar anaylisis from this site,  have ran the maths (note the fucking s matt Damon with a mop) through my super computer, and against United I forsee three likely outcomes,  we win, draw or lose. There may be no goals or many goals if Phil Jones turnsout




« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 12:11:05 AM by End Product »
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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5735 on: February 12, 2019, 12:14:14 AM »
Haha what a stellar anaylisis from this site,  have ran the maths (note the fucking s matt Damon with a mop) through my super computer, and against United I forsee three likely outcomes,  we win, draw or lose. There may be no goals or many goals if Phil Jones turnsout

Wow, you're a peach.  Again if you have a problem with math then maybe there are bigger issues you're ignoring.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5736 on: February 12, 2019, 12:17:08 AM »
Wow, you're a peach.  Again if you have a problem with math then maybe there are bigger issues you're ignoring.

All of this is fair comment.
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Offline him_15

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5737 on: February 12, 2019, 02:24:53 AM »
Crucial match at Old Trafford, a win would be huge though a draw is acceptable for me as the title would still be in our hand.
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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5738 on: February 12, 2019, 02:54:45 AM »
The reason why their odds have increased over the last two matches is simply because they're running out of difficult matches. They have what, just Spurs and United from the top six to come? We have United, Chelsea, Spurs, and Everton. Everton are nowhere near the top teams and are shite but it's a derby and you can bet your mortgage they'll be putting in a lot more effort than they did against City. Even if we beat United at Old Trafford, I'd still have them as favorites from a stats/bookies' perspective.

Offline deFacto

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5739 on: February 12, 2019, 03:11:59 AM »
The reason why their odds have increased over the last two matches is simply because they're running out of difficult matches. They have what, just Spurs and United from the top six to come? We have United, Chelsea, Spurs, and Everton. Everton are nowhere near the top teams and are shite but it's a derby and you can bet your mortgage they'll be putting in a lot more effort than they did against City. Even if we beat United at Old Trafford, I'd still have them as favorites from a stats/bookies' perspective.

While that makes sense, three out of their 4 games they've lost have been to the lower sides they were expected to beat.


Offline 88_RED

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5740 on: February 12, 2019, 03:20:27 AM »
The reason why their odds have increased over the last two matches is simply because they're running out of difficult matches. They have what, just Spurs and United from the top six to come? We have United, Chelsea, Spurs, and Everton. Everton are nowhere near the top teams and are shite but it's a derby and you can bet your mortgage they'll be putting in a lot more effort than they did against City. Even if we beat United at Old Trafford, I'd still have them as favorites from a stats/bookies' perspective.

If we beat United, I think we will win the league.. The win against United will give us huge confidence and sow doubt in City's mind, just like City's win over Chelsea has done to parts of our fanbase and the TV pundits community and media in general..

The importance of the United game cannot be ignored or understated..   Make no mistake, it is huge.. absolutely huge, even if a cut throat historical rivalry didn't exist.. The fact that it does just makes it an absolute Godzilla of a match for me..

What makes this match difficult is their great form at the moment and our recent record at OT..
But on the positive side, this is probably the first time Klopp will face a Soljskaer team. They clearly like to give it a go now and hopefully that plays into our hands.. Their narrow and nervy win at Spurs gives me confidence because they got battered by Spurs and their back four and midfield seemed to be exposed against a top quality side like Spurs. Only teen wolf's heroics got them over the line..

Going into the match, I would say its 50-50.. And at this stage, the most important thing for me is that we don't get beat.. I can settle for not losing at OT.. a win would be huge and possibly historic..
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Offline ThePoolMan

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5741 on: February 12, 2019, 04:13:53 AM »
If we deserve to be champions we will have to beat teams like United.

They will be up for it for sure, but so will we. Unfortunately they will not play as ineffectually as their last game under Mourinho, but I am confident that we will be more effective in the attack and more solid in the defence. Pogba needs to be muzzled in midfield.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5742 on: February 12, 2019, 04:22:29 AM »
Beating United alone doesn't guarantee anything. As important as it is, we have to win the other games as well.


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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5743 on: February 12, 2019, 04:37:37 AM »
While that makes sense, three out of their 4 games they've lost have been to the lower sides they were expected to beat.

Of course. I still think they'll drop points myself, but on paper those are the only two matches where I think they'll be slight favorites instead of heavy favorites. You'd expect them to win all the others on paper, except maybe the Spurs and United matches.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5744 on: February 12, 2019, 06:33:49 AM »
A draw against United wouldn't be that bad. Getting 4 points from them this season is pretty good.
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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5745 on: February 12, 2019, 07:02:25 AM »
We're going to tonk Utd though! ;)

There is nothing this team isn't prepared for(except an Ancelotti-style suffocation and compression of the midfield).

United will do what they tried so many times in our game earlier this season, but couldn't not succeed: Do what West Ham did on setpieces. That- and wingplay, will prolly be their only tactics to score goals. I'm not worried about our left, but we need Fabinho to be more alert to assist on the right. They'll target Fabinho seeing as though he's edged in their collective mindset. Like a moth to a flame! ;D
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 07:34:34 AM by the_red_pill »
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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5746 on: February 12, 2019, 07:44:43 AM »
I still think we could do with beating United. A draw wouldn't be the worst result. I just feel winning our most difficult game on paper we have left, would do wonders for us. In saying that, counts for nothing then if we drop points in the following games.

I think 92 points will be the absolute minimum required to win this league. We can get it, but can only drop points in 3-4 games max. Get to the otherside of the Chelsea game at Anfield top, I think we win it. After that we have cardiff(a), Huddersfield(h), Newcastle(A) and Wolves(H). In comparison, Citys final 4 games are Spurs (H), Burnley (A), Leicester (H) and Brighton (A).

Now, you can say we have more teams likely to be in a relegation scrap, though Huddersfield will be long gone by then. Fulham too. Thats leaves only 1 position available. We could do with Brighton and Burnley getting deeper in to this relegation scrap and Newcastle and Cardiff getting a few wins. It would likely help us out.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5747 on: February 12, 2019, 07:51:47 AM »
We could do with PSG giving them a bad defeat tonight. Even if they somehow manage to survive it I still think we have a good chance. We are due a win at OT.
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Offline Red_Rich

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5748 on: February 12, 2019, 08:01:13 AM »
6 of our remaining 12 games are against the current bottom 6!!

I know they’re going to be fighting for survival etc but we should be battering them. Wolves will be on the beach as well come our last game.

7 points from United Everton and Spurs and I think we’ll do it

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5749 on: February 12, 2019, 08:21:37 AM »
We could do with PSG giving them a bad defeat tonight. Even if they somehow manage to survive it I still think we have a good chance. We are due a win at OT.

I reckon they get a result tonight. Two of PSG's best players out. It'll probably be a score draw or narrow United win.

While I am nervous about our game with them, they are in better form and their spirits are high - it may just play in to our hands. Oleh has to be seen to playing the United (Ferguson) way. They will come out and attack us and they may well score one or two, however, they will also be leaving their poor defence exposed to our pacey and slick attacking trio. Crucial we score the first goal. Score first, we don't lose. If United score first, it'll be difficult to win.

Can't remember the last time I felt like this playing United. In the Europa league maybe. Even then, I was less nervous. Probably back at OT in 08/09. More of the same please.  :wave

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5750 on: February 12, 2019, 08:33:41 AM »
We could do with PSG giving them a bad defeat tonight. Even if they somehow manage to survive it I still think we have a good chance. We are due a win at OT.
I don't know, I  think I could live with them drawing their next 2 games to.keep the unbeaten run going until Klopp's tricky reds come to town to piss on their parade. I'm then fine with PSG and Chelsea doing them in the return fixtures.

Offline Petadroli

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5751 on: February 12, 2019, 09:00:35 AM »
I reckon they get a result tonight. Two of PSG's best players out. It'll probably be a score draw or narrow United win.

While I am nervous about our game with them, they are in better form and their spirits are high - it may just play in to our hands. Oleh has to be seen to playing the United (Ferguson) way. They will come out and attack us and they may well score one or two, however, they will also be leaving their poor defence exposed to our pacey and slick attacking trio. Crucial we score the first goal. Score first, we don't lose. If United score first, it'll be difficult to win.

Can't remember the last time I felt like this playing United. In the Europa league maybe. Even then, I was less nervous. Probably back at OT in 08/09. More of the same please.  :wave

Agree, PSG still have Mbappé and a very capable midfield. They can be snidey too, which we saw when we visited them just a few months ago. They will be happy with a draw or a narrow defeat, because the second leg at home will enable them to stuff ManUtd.

Regarding our match against them, I think their intense schedule will catch up with them. PSG, Chelsea and us in a week is bound to leave marks on a squad not at his physical best. Chelsea at home in the cup will be no pushovers, they also beat Spurs when they had to and perform much better in the Cups anyway. We have the perfect preparation with a few days off, a training camp and an European tie against fellow heavyweights Bayern to set our rythm.
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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5752 on: February 12, 2019, 10:06:02 AM »
seeing a lot of "we could do with..." in recent posts so why fuck the trend  ;D

We could do with the teams facing City being in form when they play them, as opposed to being void of any confidence like Everton recently, and it seems Chelsea.....who have been on a bit of a downturn even before they got spanked.

Just hope these teams have the good grace of being similarly shit when we play them (i know not likely), we also face United soon who have been flying so would rather they get knocked down a peg or two before we play just to give them a bit of doubt for us to play with.
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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5753 on: February 12, 2019, 10:49:58 AM »
6 of our remaining 12 games are against the current bottom 6!!



Those teams are fighting for their lives in the run-in. In the run-in midtable tables are already eyeing their holidays.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5754 on: February 12, 2019, 10:53:22 AM »
Those teams are fighting for their lives in the run-in. In the run-in midtable tables are already eyeing their holidays.

Yeah, and they are fully focused on that, since they don't have to play in any other competition.
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Offline Sharado

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5755 on: February 12, 2019, 11:00:12 AM »
Yeah, and they are fully focused on that, since they don't have to play in any other competition.

We'll beat every single one of them.
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Offline Red Being

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5756 on: February 12, 2019, 11:52:37 AM »
If injuries don't bother us again, we can do it. Or rather we WILL do it. It is only injuries that has pegged us back. One may look back at the leicester and west ham games, but with a full team, we would've won at least one of them. Hope to God, No more injuries.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5757 on: February 12, 2019, 12:03:39 PM »
Whilst the last break didn't help in terms of getting players fit (they got ill instead) and we had a tiny bit of rustiness through not playing, I think it plays into our hands that we have a CL game at home to start with.

Since it will not be a league game the pressure will not be as intense and as it's a CL game the crowd will be in full voice. Even though we could've had an easier tie, having Bayern means that both the players and the fans will be up for it. As long as we don't get beaten (on the night) confidence will stay high if not get higher. Being a Tuesday means we get enough rest before the Utd game (with VVD to come back into the side).

This CL campaign should be looked at as a free pass - it's not the most important thing so it should relax the players and conversely might help us go further.
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Offline latortuga

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5758 on: February 12, 2019, 12:58:49 PM »
Looking over the football calendar, the international break on the 23rd of March could play a part in deciding where the title ends up.  Hopefully the warm weather training keeps our players fresh and injury free.

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Re: Chasing the Title
« Reply #5759 on: February 12, 2019, 01:06:33 PM »
I think we should try win all our remaining games by scoring more goals than the other teams.