Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19  (Read 173958 times)

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1120 on: January 31, 2019, 12:09:10 PM »
It's amazing how this table has become almost the key table in my head. I was thinking, "We lose ground here"... but it did feel like we'd do well to draw last night.
Take the result in isolation and it's a bad result.  Man City losing offsets that damage.  Had they won, it'd have been a four point swing on the APLT.

In isolation, a draw on Monday would be a good result for us.  I fear West ham are the worst type of team for us to play right now, especially away from home.  We'll probably drop another APLT point there.

Offline scalatore

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1121 on: January 31, 2019, 01:34:46 PM »

Points = Current PLT
APLTpts = Current APLT standing
Max Pts = Total acheivable points if ALL games won to end of the season
DAWH = Total points assuming Draw Aways & Win Homes
Par Pts = Total if team plays to APLT par until end of season
T (ppg) = Trend on a points per game basis

Offline MerseysideBrum

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1122 on: January 31, 2019, 01:41:16 PM »

Points = Current PLT
APLTpts = Current APLT standing
Max Pts = Total acheivable points if ALL games won to end of the season
DAWH = Total points assuming Draw Aways & Win Homes
Par Pts = Total if team plays to APLT par until end of season
T (ppg) = Trend on a points per game basis
Your APLT pts are incorrect
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Offline scalatore

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1123 on: January 31, 2019, 01:51:07 PM »
Your APLT pts are incorrect
Oh yeah. Looks like I didn't automate that for some reason?!  :butt

Offline suede lady

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1124 on: January 31, 2019, 03:11:42 PM »
That is the lowest PPG score since the draws against Chelsea and Arsenal and a clear dip from previous heights. Still a good return but we need to start keeping clean sheets again.

Offline scalatore

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1125 on: January 31, 2019, 03:33:55 PM »
Interesting that last year City dropped from +8 in Matchweek 20 to +6 in Matchweek 21, then to +5 in Matchweek 23 - very similar to us. They went as low as +3 in weeks 26 & 27 before getting up to +10.


Offline Yiannis

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1126 on: January 31, 2019, 03:55:05 PM »
Ok this is a stupid question but I will post it to clear this out. Does the difference on APLTpts always reflect the difference of the actual table when teams have played all of their 38 games? 

In 16/17 Chelsea finished with 93 points while Spurs had 86. On APLT, Chelsea had +3 and Spurs -4. A 7pt difference on both tables.

Last year Man City had 100 points while Utd 81. On APLT, Man City had plus 10 whereas Utd had -9. A 19pt difference on both tables.

Right now our lead is 5 pts on the actual table while on the APLT one is 7. I guess that has to do with the number of par1s and par3s each team has played, right?
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Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1127 on: January 31, 2019, 04:06:26 PM »
Ok this is a stupid question but I will post it to clear this out. Does the difference on APLTpts always reflect the difference of the actual table when teams have played all of their 38 games? 

In 16/17 Chelsea finished with 93 points while Spurs had 86. On APLT, Chelsea had +3 and Spurs -4. A 7pt difference on both tables.

Last year Man City had 100 points while Utd 81. On APLT, Man City had plus 10 whereas Utd had -9. A 19pt difference on both tables.

Right now our lead is 5 pts on the actual table while on the APLT one is 7. I guess that has to do with the number of par1s and par3s each team has played, right?

Yes, they always match at the end, on either side of the ninety point line. The APLT points are always "compared" to the 90 point line. As teams have played different amounts of par 1s and 3s, that is why it usually differs from the actual table until the end.

Offline Yiannis

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1128 on: January 31, 2019, 04:23:56 PM »
Ta.
Messi in fact doesn't have a recognizable trait.

Offline newterp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1129 on: January 31, 2019, 04:41:19 PM »






what's the chances of doing the bar graphs in table order? thanks.

Offline Hij

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1130 on: February 1, 2019, 01:13:33 AM »
what's the chances of doing the bar graphs in table order? thanks.

I've looked at the Man United one several times this season and gone "fucking hell, this is incredible" then realised it's the other Mancs.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1131 on: February 1, 2019, 03:47:13 AM »
City have an interesting month ahead, don’t they? And our Hammers away is 1 par... I’m gonna enjoy the weekend (despite the shit that’s going on with my personal life) and cheer for the Rams in the Super Bowl. I don’t follow American football, but hey, the Rams and back in LA now, so I wanna see a parade!
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Offline latortuga

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1132 on: February 1, 2019, 06:00:46 AM »
Take the result in isolation and it's a bad result.  Man City losing offsets that damage.  Had they won, it'd have been a four point swing on the APLT.

In isolation, a draw on Monday would be a good result for us.  I fear West ham are the worst type of team for us to play right now, especially away from home.  We'll probably drop another APLT point there.

Why is that?  I'm of the complete opposite opinion on West Ham.  I think they are the perfect away game for us right now as Pellegrini will no doubt think we're there for the taking and have a real go.  Perfect formula for us to put a few past them and their horrid defence, much like City did earlier in the season winning 5-0 IIRC.  Supremely confident we'll win. 

It might sound strange but I also think we would have beaten Leicester if Man City had won away to Newcastle.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1133 on: February 1, 2019, 06:43:01 AM »
Why is that?  I'm of the complete opposite opinion on West Ham.  I think they are the perfect away game for us right now as Pellegrini will no doubt think we're there for the taking and have a real go.  Perfect formula for us to put a few past them and their horrid defence, much like City did earlier in the season winning 5-0 IIRC.  Supremely confident we'll win. 

It might sound strange but I also think we would have beaten Leicester if Man City had won away to Newcastle.

Oh dear god you're ruining it! RUINING IT!

;D
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Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1134 on: February 1, 2019, 07:30:29 AM »
Oh dear god you're ruining it! RUINING IT!

;D
It's no smiling matter!  How many times this season do we have to demonstrate the laws work?  Fucked for Monday now  :no

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1135 on: February 1, 2019, 07:35:25 AM »
what's the chances of doing the bar graphs in table order? thanks.
That chart is completely automated and has lots of formulae which I'd have to rewrite.  If I'd built it with that concept in mind, it'd be possible, but I don't have the time to rebuild it.

The best I can offer is showing just us and Man City on a seperate image by hiding the other parts of the table.

If anyone has the inclination, some skilfull cut and paste in paint could work too  ;D

Offline harleydanger

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1136 on: February 1, 2019, 08:04:36 AM »
It's no smiling matter!  How many times this season do we have to demonstrate the laws work?  Fucked for Monday now  :no

mods need to start handing out bans ffs
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Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1137 on: February 1, 2019, 10:38:31 AM »
mods need to start handing out bans ffs

To be fair he's invoking the inverse-reverse backwards mockers law.

By predicting an improved result in the past based on a different result for a rival you have to multiply his prediction for the next match by minus one and then divide by the Planck constant. In this case the Planck constant is zero as there are no photons involved, so he's actually predicting a marginal loss.
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Offline royhendo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1138 on: February 1, 2019, 11:03:47 AM »
Interesting that last year City dropped from +8 in Matchweek 20 to +6 in Matchweek 21, then to +5 in Matchweek 23 - very similar to us. They went as low as +3 in weeks 26 & 27 before getting up to +10.



Lovely illustration of your point there dude. Ta!
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Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1139 on: February 1, 2019, 12:29:09 PM »
I thought I'd share this again, seeing as somebody requested an updated one the other day.



I've gone and added Team Acronyms, it's not as pretty as it was but at least you can figure out the teams now. These are the official acronyms that I managed to grab from the Opta database, have fun figuring out the German ones.

Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1140 on: February 1, 2019, 12:42:01 PM »
Also, thought I'd add this rather than let it sit idle in my account. The idea occurred way back, when Prof said that the APLT was originally his attempt to graph league position on a horizontal axis. Well it occurred to me that this could also be done by simply showing their PPG on a week by week basis. It won't reflect the difficulty of games as per the APLT, but is in fact a reflection of the real table.



It's not all that great, but due to the way I built it also enables me to select things other than points to compare so it wasn't a complete waste of time.


Offline Uncle Ronnie

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1141 on: February 1, 2019, 01:08:14 PM »
They're great.

Interesting City's shots are dropping, whilst ours are fairly consistent.

Offline Suareznumber7

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1142 on: February 1, 2019, 01:35:46 PM »
Why is that?  I'm of the complete opposite opinion on West Ham.  I think they are the perfect away game for us right now as Pellegrini will no doubt think we're there for the taking and have a real go.  Perfect formula for us to put a few past them and their horrid defence, much like City did earlier in the season winning 5-0 IIRC.  Supremely confident we'll win. 

It might sound strange but I also think we would have beaten Leicester if Man City had won away to Newcastle.


We are "there for the taking".  Did you not see how poor we have been recently.  Can't imagine we get anything from this game.  Thankfully it's only a par 1 so it won't hurt us too bad in the APLT but will hurt us in the real table and will put us under incredible pressure. 

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1143 on: February 1, 2019, 01:43:57 PM »
....snip.

Do you have one for shots conceded, because although this is true: -

Interesting City's shots are dropping, whilst ours are fairly consistent.

...I think the rate we've been conceding has been going up.
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Offline Uncle Ronnie

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1144 on: February 1, 2019, 01:45:30 PM »

...I think the rate we've been conceding has been going up.

No doubt if has, but probably only for the last 3-4 games. City has them dropping their shots since around week 10.

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1145 on: February 1, 2019, 02:04:30 PM »
Fingers crossed we can get par on Monday, but it doesn't seem likely the way things are going.

Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1146 on: February 1, 2019, 02:10:35 PM »
Fingers crossed we can get par on Monday, but it doesn't seem likely the way things are going.

I don't think we'll get par. I think we are going to thump them.
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Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1147 on: February 1, 2019, 02:49:25 PM »
Do you have one for shots conceded, because although this is true: -

...I think the rate we've been conceding has been going up.




Not according to this but you have to appreciate that these graphs are very robust models (are not sensitive to fluctuations) due to the way they are calculated:
Sum(Total Shots conceded)/Games Played

So that is why you're likely to see relatively large fluctuations over the first few games as the sample size is quite small but this soon stabilises as the sample size grows (similar to how if you flip a coin, it won't necessarily be 50/50 for the first 5 tosses, but will most certainly tend towards it after 50). So if we are conceding a few more shots per game in the last couple of games, overall you won't see that in effect. That might sound useless but it can actually be quite useful.

To add to this conversation, here's the xGA  (xG Against) over the same time period. Again we're actually quite level but you can see how the same does not apply to Man City:




Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1148 on: February 1, 2019, 02:55:38 PM »
I don't think we'll get par. I think they are going to thump us.

I agree :(

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1149 on: February 1, 2019, 03:07:20 PM »
You try me once you beg for more.

Offline latortuga

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1150 on: February 1, 2019, 09:31:50 PM »
It's no smiling matter!  How many times this season do we have to demonstrate the laws work?  Fucked for Monday now  :no

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Offline stevieheighway

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1151 on: February 1, 2019, 09:42:28 PM »
I love a bear gif or an extended pun run as much as the next guy but this mockers bollox has ruined this thread for me, used to be my favourite, the only one I had an alert on for....
I'm really looking forward to the future. People can say it's going to be grim if they want but i'm a Liverpool fan...and I don't fucking believe them.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1152 on: February 2, 2019, 10:08:14 AM »
.... this mockers bollox has ruined this thread for me ....

Totally agree.

Cringeworthy!
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Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1153 on: February 2, 2019, 10:26:57 AM »
Point taken

It's got a bit over the top.  It's the stress of it all.  I can't cope  :D

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1154 on: February 2, 2019, 01:00:58 PM »
Point taken


We'll be lucky to take a point on Monday no, wait...
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1155 on: February 2, 2019, 01:40:14 PM »
Kurt,

Following our convo yesterday I thought I'd check Shots Conceded based on a Moving Avg (instead of Running Average) as this would better highlight any changes in the rate:



As you can see it's still pretty consistent since October.

Offline BazC

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1156 on: February 2, 2019, 01:53:26 PM »
It's amazing how this table has become almost the key table in my head. I was thinking, "We lose ground here"... but it did feel like we'd do well to draw last night.

It’s an amazing way to keep track of the state of play. I consider it more than the real table! Such a clean way to control for the relative quality of opponents each team faces.

Also - good to see you back around these parts mate!
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Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1157 on: February 2, 2019, 05:01:35 PM »
You try me once you beg for more.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1158 on: February 3, 2019, 01:57:33 PM »
Whatever happened to the Relegation APLT? Did it move somewhere else?

Offline gazzalfc

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #1159 on: February 3, 2019, 02:06:32 PM »
Quick nerdy question. What stats software do you use? JMP?