Author Topic: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE  (Read 3458319 times)

Offline Dull Tools

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47400 on: January 13, 2021, 07:22:58 pm »
Deaths by day shown below, obviously always some catchup from the under-reporting over weekends


This is definitely the best way to look at it rather than the reported case number. This alongside the rolling average.

Offline Ashburton

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47401 on: January 13, 2021, 07:36:06 pm »
Also feel the supermarkets should be able to work this out for themselves. They really aren't helping with anything at the moment.

Saw an interesting chart today showing daily cases vs daily tests. We aren't actually doing that bad. About 10% of our tests are turning up positive whereas it is 20% or more for Germany, US, Italy, Netherlands and a few others.

I don't know why are death rates are so high compared to other countries. Even if you look at the number of people in ICU per million compared to other countries. We are the same compared to most European countries. Germany and the US are 70% higher.

But when you look at deaths per million we are at 13.8 and are about 50% higher than anyone else and the same for our case fatality rate.

I don't understand. Why are more of our people dying when we don't actually look bad on lots of the other factors?

Some factors which may not be evident, note none of this is to excuse the government from dropping the ball frequently:

- young people are far more likely to get tested, whereas the elderly group may turn up with covid symptoms and treated as covid positive.  Seeing a huge testing spike pre-Xmas may to do with young healthy people getting tests before heading to see family for Xmas (or indeed testing positive en-masse and choosing not to go).  It's important to remember a negative test can still represent a false negative.
- Germany has a far higher ICU capacity (near double vs the UK) even if the people per million in ICU is similar
- USA seem to have been under-counting Covid deaths
- Unhealthier population/diet and a disease which makes obese people and diabetics especially vulnerable.
- we are in a different stage of the pandemic.  USA are going to be in a similar position in probably mid February.
- Germany had a different population cohort infected during their 1st wave (less nursing home issues, more younger people infected)
- once you hit healthcare capacity more people die. 

« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 07:49:09 pm by Ashburton »

Offline PaulF

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47402 on: January 13, 2021, 07:42:53 pm »
One thing I will say is that people have shown themselves to be absolute imbeciles during this whole thing. Yes, the Government absolutely needs to take responsibility for their actions, their pussyfooting and mixed messaging, but as does a lot of the public. The one thing that irks me the most is people having to actually rely on the Government for instructions, rather than using common sense in a pandemic.

"Am I allowed to go see my friend in Devon and spend the weekend with her family?" Errr, you may be allowed to do it, but is it fucking wise to? It's a global pandemic, there are thousands getting the virus every day, there's over 1000 dying, but no you need to go spend a weekend with Jane in Cullompton because *first world problems* or *my human rights*... Use your common sense.

If this virus had a fatality rate of 10-20%+, you can bet most people wouldn't be breaking the rules and trying to sneak around. They also wouldn't be asking stupid questions about whether this or that is within the guidelines, they'd bloody well stick to it because they don't wish to die. Yes, this virus kills less but fucking hell, is it worth taking a risk?
Thanks to rawk I've become a socialist. It now always saddens me how most people evaluate the actions against the virus doing them harm or their nearest suffering. It's rarely the mindset of ' if I do this, is it worth the risk that someone I don't know might die / get long covid / tie up an ICU bed and staff / tip one of they NHS over the edge'. I get it's really hard, but very few activities seem worth that risk to me. Maybe a more visual picture would help. If I go and have that coffee, the equivalent of one person in my school year group will die.
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Offline Ashburton

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47403 on: January 13, 2021, 07:43:55 pm »
This is definitely the best way to look at it rather than the reported case number. This alongside the rolling average.

Just out of interest, DT, and I don't want to get too off topic with this but vaguely remember this is your field.. have you got any thoughts as to the economic 'next stage' of Covid yet?  Economically speaking do we actually have a chance of getting spending back and a 'roaring 20s' actually catapulting us out of the other side of this?  Some of the fundamentals for sure seem worrying.

Offline Sammy5IsAlive

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47404 on: January 13, 2021, 07:46:53 pm »

For all intents and purposes the vaccine has 100 per cent efficacy against mortality.[/i]


This gave me a giggle. Immortality beckons...

Offline Dull Tools

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47405 on: January 13, 2021, 07:47:16 pm »
Some factors which may not be evident, note none of this is to excuse the government from dropping the ball frequently:

- young people are far more likely to get tested, whereas the elderly group may turn up with covid symptoms and treated as covid positive.  Seeing a huge testing spike pre-Xmas may to do with young healthy people getting tests before heading to see family for Xmas.
- Germany has a far higher ICU capacity (near double vs the UK) even if the people per million in ICU is similar
- USA seem to have been under-counting Covid deaths
- Unhealthier population/diet and a disease which makes obese people and diabetics especially vulnerable.
- we are in a different stage of the pandemic.  USA are going to be in a similar position in probably mid February.
- Germany had a different population cohort infected during their 1st wave (less nursing home issues, more younger people infected)
- once you hit healthcare capacity more people die. 


I do kind of think the same. I think a lot of the stuff hasn't been handled well by the government but a lot of the issues we are facing in terms of deaths don't seem to be down to government policy during covid. It appears to be down to the long term degradation of the NHS and the density of our population.

Offline ljycb

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47406 on: January 13, 2021, 08:04:46 pm »
I do kind of think the same. I think a lot of the stuff hasn't been handled well by the government but a lot of the issues we are facing in terms of deaths don't seem to be down to government policy during covid. It appears to be down to the long term degradation of the NHS and the density of our population.

The long term degradation of the NHS is government policy no?

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47407 on: January 13, 2021, 08:08:55 pm »
I do kind of think the same. I think a lot of the stuff hasn't been handled well by the government but a lot of the issues we are facing in terms of deaths don't seem to be down to government policy during covid. It appears to be down to the long term degradation of the NHS and the density of our population.

?
YNWA.

Offline Dull Tools

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47408 on: January 13, 2021, 08:13:58 pm »
The long term degradation of the NHS is government policy no?
I said government policy during the covid period. I didn't say it wasn't due to long term problems they have caused.

Offline ljycb

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47409 on: January 13, 2021, 09:39:00 pm »
I said government policy during the covid period. I didn't say it wasn't due to long term problems they have caused.

Ah right, I get you.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47410 on: January 13, 2021, 09:44:41 pm »
I've pretty much decided I'm not going back to work when this lockdown ends.  They've tested my patience too far now with how they've behaved and their attitude towards it from day one.


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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47411 on: January 13, 2021, 10:30:38 pm »
12-01-2021   207,661   Vaccinated

Hope that daily figures goes up. we need 2m or more vaccination per week

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47412 on: January 13, 2021, 10:32:03 pm »
Janssen/J&J released full Phase 1/2 data for their vaccine candidate

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034201

Phase 3 expected to report in the next few weeks

Offline thaddeus

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47413 on: January 13, 2021, 10:39:56 pm »
I've been told by my dad that his 97-year old mum (my nan) has had a positive test in her care home  :(

Apart from my aunt visiting with the separation of a perspex screen none of my family have been able to see her since March.  Gutted beyond words that after all this time and with her vaccination so close she's been infected.

Offline west_london_red

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47414 on: January 13, 2021, 10:47:30 pm »
Janssen/J&J released full Phase 1/2 data for their vaccine candidate

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034201

Phase 3 expected to report in the next few weeks

CNN are saying Phase 3 initial data should be out later this month, and the single dose results look promising too.
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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47415 on: January 13, 2021, 10:49:07 pm »
I've been told by my dad that his 97-year old mum (my nan) has had a positive test in her care home  :(

Apart from my aunt visiting with the separation of a perspex screen none of my family have been able to see her since March.  Gutted beyond words that after all this time and with her vaccination so close she's been infected.

Sorry to hear that mate, hope it works out okay for her.
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Offline filopastry

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47416 on: January 13, 2021, 10:49:33 pm »
CNN are saying Phase 3 initial data should be out later this month, and the single dose results look promising too.

Reading this one with interest as I'm on the 2 dose trial, while I was pretty sure I got placebo, the fact that I did get mild injection site pain for a few days seems quite positive based on this report, I will live in hope!

Offline west_london_red

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47417 on: January 13, 2021, 10:55:03 pm »
Reading this one with interest as I'm on the 2 dose trial, while I was pretty sure I got placebo, the fact that I did get mild injection site pain for a few days seems quite positive based on this report, I will live in hope!

Well with the case rates across the US, UK and Europe sky high it shouldn’t take too long. I remember the times over the Summer when the cases were so low the vaccine manufacturers were concerned there may not be enough prevalence to know if the vaccines were working or not. Sadly we don’t have that problem anymore.
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Offline Thepooloflife

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47418 on: January 13, 2021, 10:59:54 pm »
I've been told by my dad that his 97-year old mum (my nan) has had a positive test in her care home  :(

Apart from my aunt visiting with the separation of a perspex screen none of my family have been able to see her since March.  Gutted beyond words that after all this time and with her vaccination so close she's been infected.
Sorry to hear that - hope she doesn't get unwell. I'm in the same position......my sister's in hospital now after positive test at her care home, although she's younger than your nan. Haven't seen her for nearly a year.

Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47419 on: January 14, 2021, 12:05:13 am »
I've been told by my dad that his 97-year old mum (my nan) has had a positive test in her care home  :(

Apart from my aunt visiting with the separation of a perspex screen none of my family have been able to see her since March.  Gutted beyond words that after all this time and with her vaccination so close she's been infected.
sorry to hear that bud, fingers crossed for her that it doesn't get too bad
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Offline Machae

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47420 on: January 14, 2021, 01:13:28 am »
I've been told by my dad that his 97-year old mum (my nan) has had a positive test in her care home  :(

Apart from my aunt visiting with the separation of a perspex screen none of my family have been able to see her since March.  Gutted beyond words that after all this time and with her vaccination so close she's been infected.

Sorry to hear that, hope she recovers but regretful that she hasnt been vaccinated yet when other 75 year olds in other cities have.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47421 on: January 14, 2021, 02:24:41 am »
Saw on the echo that places like Jag have been getting slated.

200+ abscences due to covid on one shift alone apparently, lad in work found out from his mate whose in the main plant, so take the 200 number with a pinch of salt, we’ve got about 20 off on my shift alone in one of their suppliers.

Absoloutely ridiculous that them, among other non-essential construction and manufacturing, has been allowed to operate with the current figures.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47422 on: January 14, 2021, 06:07:52 am »

Just getting out of work and was informed my ward is now on complete lockdown for the next three weeks. 14 positive tests on Monday!  Expected back in to the faculties Friday morning. The "deap-cleaners" will be "prompt" Sunday morning.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47423 on: January 14, 2021, 08:26:10 am »
I've been told by my dad that his 97-year old mum (my nan) has had a positive test in her care home  :(

Apart from my aunt visiting with the separation of a perspex screen none of my family have been able to see her since March.  Gutted beyond words that after all this time and with her vaccination so close she's been infected.

I hope she comes through mate. Sorry to hear it.
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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47424 on: January 14, 2021, 08:39:16 am »
I've been told by my dad that his 97-year old mum (my nan) has had a positive test in her care home  :(

Apart from my aunt visiting with the separation of a perspex screen none of my family have been able to see her since March.  Gutted beyond words that after all this time and with her vaccination so close she's been infected.
Wishing her well Thaddeus.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47425 on: January 14, 2021, 08:40:38 am »
Some grim posts last night on family members with positive tests.  I hope they all make a full recovery.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47426 on: January 14, 2021, 08:41:24 am »
Filo, you jammy b*stard if you've had the vaccine and only localised pain.
Skim-reading that there doesn't seem to be such a strong reaction for the second dose, thank God. And who are the third cohort - are they talking age?
Ah, I've just read this.
"These researchers observed that among participants between the ages of 18 and 55 years, a second vaccine dose at day 57 further increased the antibody titer, a finding that was also in line with our recent observations in nonhuman primates."
I'm obviously a guinea pig for the over-55s getting a second dose at day 57 to see if there's a similar response.

« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 08:48:51 am by No666 »

Offline mattybeard

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47427 on: January 14, 2021, 09:13:30 am »
I've nipped into my office this morning as the alarm was going off overnight and it's quite haunting - no-one has been here, particularly in my department for a good 6-8 months and the entire to do list is "Beat Coronavirus" and it's dated 03/2020. If only any of us knew what was going to happen in those weeks leading to that date!

And in other grim news, I found out a younger brother of a childhood friend I've not seen for years passed last week - 30 with no known underlying conditions. That hit home.

Offline rob1966

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47428 on: January 14, 2021, 09:17:08 am »
I've been told by my dad that his 97-year old mum (my nan) has had a positive test in her care home  :(

Apart from my aunt visiting with the separation of a perspex screen none of my family have been able to see her since March.  Gutted beyond words that after all this time and with her vaccination so close she's been infected.

Sorry to hear that, hope she's OK.

Neighbours Dad had it and got through it fine, mid 80's and dementia sufferer and they've just had an 106yr old woman on Lorraine whose had it twice.
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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47429 on: January 14, 2021, 09:22:43 am »
Sorry to hear that, hope she's OK.

Neighbours Dad had it and got through it fine, mid 80's and dementia sufferer and they've just had an 106yr old woman on Lorraine whose had it twice.

How far between each bout? Not heard of many having it twice.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47430 on: January 14, 2021, 09:35:11 am »
Hope that daily figures goes up. we need 2m or more vaccination per week

Yeah I'm sure it will but glad we reached to 200,000 a day so quick

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47431 on: January 14, 2021, 09:46:58 am »
Yeah I'm sure it will but glad we reached to 200,000 a day so quick

Yeah, 200,000 a day at this point would probably be fine were it not for the government yet again announcing a date they’re working towards. Creates more anxiety.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47432 on: January 14, 2021, 09:47:07 am »
How far between each bout? Not heard of many having it twice.

My mother in law, a nurse, has had it twice. She has it at the moment and is feeling pretty rough. She is in her early 60's and not a million miles off retirement. I think these past 12 months have caused her to reassess her retirement date. The poor woman's entire existence centres around her two grandchildren and she has seen them only a few times in the last year - certainly not over christmas and she understands our concerns given where she works so hasn't seen them face to face in many months.

To all those that have posted about loved ones being diagnosed I wish all well and sincerely hope all recover.
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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47433 on: January 14, 2021, 09:51:51 am »
Filo, you jammy b*stard if you've had the vaccine and only localised pain.
Skim-reading that there doesn't seem to be such a strong reaction for the second dose, thank God. And who are the third cohort - are they talking age?
Ah, I've just read this.
"These researchers observed that among participants between the ages of 18 and 55 years, a second vaccine dose at day 57 further increased the antibody titer, a finding that was also in line with our recent observations in nonhuman primates."
I'm obviously a guinea pig for the over-55s getting a second dose at day 57 to see if there's a similar response.



I read the papers yesterday and it confused me. Cohort 1 was 18-55 I think, Cohort 3 was 65+ but it wasn’t obvious where or who was in Cohort 2 (if there even is one)
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Offline Hedley Lamarr

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47434 on: January 14, 2021, 09:54:11 am »
Yeah, 200,000 a day at this point would probably be fine were it not for the government yet again announcing a date they’re working towards. Creates more anxiety.
They'll reach their target, with high Street chemists, the vaccination centres and a potential 24/7 scheme coming on board I think they'll surpass it.

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47435 on: January 14, 2021, 09:56:40 am »
They'll reach their target, with high Street chemists, the vaccination centres and a potential 24/7 scheme coming in board I think they'll surpass it.

It all depends on supply. The infrastructure is there but supply is the potential limiting factor. If that can be kept under control then I am actually confident the target the government rather stupidly announced (rather than keep it internally) can be met.

At the moment I have to say that vaccination is the one thing they are getting right.
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Offline rob1966

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47436 on: January 14, 2021, 09:59:51 am »
It all depends on supply. The infrastructure is there but supply is the potential limiting factor. If that can be kept under control then I am actually confident the target the government rather stupidly announced (rather than keep it internally) can be met.

At the moment I have to say that vaccination is the one thing they are getting right.

Its because they aren't in control of it, other people are handling the logistics of the rollout
Jurgen, you made us laugh, you made us cry, you made Liverpool a bastion of invincibilty, now leave us on a high - YNWA

Offline Qston

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47437 on: January 14, 2021, 10:04:00 am »
Its because they aren't in control of it, other people are handling the logistics of the rollout

I detest the government as much as the next man but that does seem a little disingenuous. It is the government that have instructed other people including the army.
"Just a normal lad from Liverpool whose dream has just come true" Trent June 1st 2019

Offline rob1966

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Re: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE
« Reply #47438 on: January 14, 2021, 10:10:04 am »
I detest the government as much as the next man but that does seem a little disingenuous. It is the government that have instructed other people including the army.

From reading their website, AstraZeneca started creating the logistical network to move the vaccines last summer, the NHS delivers the flu jab every year, so they will just be following tried and tested routes, the Army staff are used to moving everything required to go to war. The Tories might have said do it, but a monkey could have done that. I'm not giving these fuckwits one ounce of credit in this.
Jurgen, you made us laugh, you made us cry, you made Liverpool a bastion of invincibilty, now leave us on a high - YNWA

Offline Medellin

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