Topic: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE

[Thepooloflife]

38,000 in hospital with Covid - 4000 on ventilation & 1610 dead........highest figures yet, utterly shocking. Will get worse before it gets better.

[Gerry Attrick]

What are we thinking around vaccination numbers reducing? Are we just struggling to get supply?

[So… Howard Philips]

If they can't invade Benidorm to eat Fish and Chips and Sunday Dinner, they'll go mental.

Don't forget the foaming pint of Watney's Red Barrel to wash down the full English.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

What are we thinking around vaccination numbers reducing? Are we just struggling to get supply?

Messaging? We are at that crossover of +80s to +70s getting it and maybe that group aren't as prepared/informed?

[west_london_red]

What are we thinking around vaccination numbers reducing? Are we just struggling to get supply?

No idea, but an explanation from the government would be nice, down to 209k yesterday, which is a drop of 120k from the highest which was on the 15th Jan.

[AmSeeker]

Why are the vaccination numbers falling again?

We are meant to be ramping up this week, instead we are falling ? Down over 50% from peak.

[Guz-kop]

Tier 3/4 has generally been enough to keep things under control as long as the R rate isn't too high to begin with, in which cases stronger measures needed. R rate is slowly but surely coming down again.

The problems have occurred when areas have been opened up too much beyond that. Putting London and the South East into tier 2 through December (and Liverpool too) has had disastrous consequences.

If they'd just kept the country in tier 4 through December then we wouldn't be in this mess but Boris didn't have the bollocks to 'cancel Christmas' and wanted the headlines for 'saving Christmas' and keeping the high streets and shopping centres packed out with Christmas shoppers wasn't thought through.

Kent was in tier 3 though and cases started to rise in December. Not sure I agree it was doing the job. Agree decision for tier 2 in London was insane, especially given footfall between London and Kent.

[Ashburton]

Case numbers good again...

The trouble is that reduction in numbers is also exponential so we won’t see these rapid gains so quickly in weeks to come.  (Although they are a wee bit quicker to fall than might have been expected)

Yup we're seeing national R value around 0.1-0.15 below what was expected with the new variant and these lockdown measures, which considering the early assumptions, would lead to Tier-2 being a significant failing and cause of this inflated assumption of spread (in short the Londoners weren't keeping to tier-2 restrictions rather than the increased transmissibility of B117)

More broadly the opening back up plan needs to be thought through and there is far more discussion to be had on the how and why.  There is still a lot of issues with re-opening schools and there is the fundamental PR/morale problem of re-'opening for business' and UK holidays after the NHS has seen itself at such massive strain and stress.  We cannot reasonably expect the NHS to be hit by a train every few months and not continue to lose frontline staff.

Would agree with the theory of re-opening for restricted holidays in the UK and whilst not outlawing non-UK holidays, make them difficult and include isolation/testing to hopefully nudge people to deciding on a week in Cornwall or Wales instead.  Obviously I'd rather see the drunken louts cause problems in another country over the summer but it is what it is.

[AlphaDelta]

I know its a bit lazy to sit and read back through the last few pages, but is there any glimmer of light to this madness today?

Did I hear correctly that Hancock said he's going on his hols to Cornwall in the summer!? 

[Ashburton]

No idea, but an explanation from the government would be nice, down to 209k yesterday, which is a drop of 120k from the highest which was on the 15th Jan.

Could be any number of issues, for example

- Logistics
- Quality Control failure of a batch
- Patients not able to get to the vaccination location

I doubt you'd have the government briefing on the first two.  It's possible the recent snow was causing some rescheduling of appointments for the very old crowd but the important thing is the week-on-week growth with this, less the day to day issues.  Also as you move away from 'patient dense' locations like hospitals (staff) and care homes it becomes more important to schedule times, organise queing and no doubt this is far less simple than just going around a hospital jabbing people in the arm.

[Ashburton]

I know its a bit lazy to sit and read back through the last few pages, but is there any glimmer of light to this madness today?

Did I hear correctly that Hancock said he's going on his hols to Cornwall in the summer!? 

Yeah, he's isolating at the moment and seems to have planned his hols.  Probably putting it out in the press so he gets the beach to himself as nobody else wants to book the same area and risk Hancock within 10 miles of them.  ...

[Ashburton]

Very interesting

Having had covid, I wonder if I will get a benefit from the vaccine.  Or will it act like a booster shot? Would be interested to know.

It'll act like a reinfection would, essentially the disease is a tertiary concern - first the body needs to recognise a pathogen and secondly needs to be able to deal with it - the more severe your initial infection the stronger your body's response should be but this itself should not extend longevity.  Were you given the Oxford vaccine this should cause an increase in active and sustained protection for a much longer period, however I'm unaware of research as to what would happen were you to get the mRNA vaccine after Covid infection - as the RNA would be redundant as the immune system is already aware of how to fight Covid, it just needs this response extending.

The short answer is infection->mrna vaccine, I don't believe we know yet (it could act as two distinct 'first infections'), infection->oxford vaccine, should act like a standard second vaccine.  Reason I say not sure is the self-adjuvanticity of mRNA delivery may be distinct and generate a naive response.   Interesting question though.   It could be assumed that a broad immune response may be more successful against non-wild-type Covid and this broad response may be distinct to the non-mRNA vaccines but that's just speculation.

[Crosby Nick]

I know its a bit lazy to sit and read back through the last few pages, but is there any glimmer of light to this madness today?

Did I hear correctly that Hancock said he's going on his hols to Cornwall in the summer!? 

Cases do seem to be falling. Still too high but my borough has gone from 1,000 per 100,000 to about 450 in the space of a week. But sadly deaths still rising and presumably will do for another couple of weeks yet.

[Hedley Lamarr]

I know its a bit lazy to sit and read back through the last few pages, but is there any glimmer of light to this madness today?

Did I hear correctly that Hancock said he's going on his hols to Cornwall in the summer!? 

The cases are over 12k down on this time last week and over 22% down on the seven day rolling average.  That’s a positive.

[Commie Bobbie]

Kent was in tier 3 though and cases started to rise in December. Not sure I agree it was doing the job. Agree decision for tier 2 in London was insane, especially given footfall between London and Kent.

Its interesting now that Kent has a lower rate per 100k than all the surrounding counties, the fact is however even during LD2 - the ROI was going up like a rocket in Kent - and yet no one did anything substantial until London had to be pushed into T3 and then T4 within a matter of days. I can't help but where we would be tonight if we hadn't opened up in December.

[AmSeeker]

Pfizer have reduced their number of vaccines for the UK and Europe. Could this be why we are seeing an alarming drop in vaccinations?

[killer-heels]

Random thought from Wales.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1351081395293138945

[daindan]

Just found out today my sister is suffering from long Covid. Had Covid during the first wave and as a result now has asthma.

[scouseman]

does anyone have a valid reason as to why Tesco are charging £5.50 to deliver to someone who is on the help/venerable list. It just seems like a money making scheme.

[scouseman]

Just found out today my sister is suffering from long Covid. Had Covid during the first wave and as a result now has asthma.

sorry to hear that mate. All the very best to you both. I fear that we all know someone who has or is suffering from the long term damage that this horrible virus has caused for many years to come.

[djahern]

It'll act like a reinfection would, essentially the disease is a tertiary concern - first the body needs to recognise a pathogen and secondly needs to be able to deal with it - the more severe your initial infection the stronger your body's response should be but this itself should not extend longevity.  Were you given the Oxford vaccine this should cause an increase in active and sustained protection for a much longer period, however I'm unaware of research as to what would happen were you to get the mRNA vaccine after Covid infection - as the RNA would be redundant as the immune system is already aware of how to fight Covid, it just needs this response extending.

The short answer is infection->mrna vaccine, I don't believe we know yet (it could act as two distinct 'first infections'), infection->oxford vaccine, should act like a standard second vaccine.  Reason I say not sure is the self-adjuvanticity of mRNA delivery may be distinct and generate a naive response.   Interesting question though.   It could be assumed that a broad immune response may be more successful against non-wild-type Covid and this broad response may be distinct to the non-mRNA vaccines but that's just speculation.

Both vaccines should work the same - essentially the first vaccine dose in someone who has previously had covid would act similar to the second dose of vaccine for someone not previously infected. Both vaccines just make the immune system respond to the spike protein, they just differ in how they get the person to make the spike protein to respond to - via viral vector being transcribed into mRNA and then assembled into protein based on the mRNA (oxford) or skipping the transcribing part for mRNA vaccines and going straight to making the protein based off the mRNA template.

Both the person with previous covid and the person after their first vaccine dose have had their immune system primed to see the virus - for the spike protein (mainly) and other proteins for the previously infected person and the spike protein only for the vaccinated person. The next encounter (first vaccine for previously infected/second dose of vaccine for other) then induces the immune system to respond rapidly a second time to virus spike protein and strengthens the immune memory. This immune repose will be fast and very strong - expect that second dose of vaccine to knock you out more than the first, essentially the body is mounting a huge response to a pathogen it has a memory of. There’s no slow ramp up of immune response this time - it’s exceptionally fast if the first encounter with the virus/spike has done what it should.

[Thepooloflife]

Both vaccines should work the same - essentially the first vaccine dose in someone who has previously had covid would act similar to the second dose of vaccine for someone not previously infected. Both vaccines just make the immune system respond to the spike protein, they just differ in how they get the person to make the spike protein to respond to - via viral vector being transcribed into mRNA and then assembled into protein based on the mRNA (oxford) or skipping the transcribing part for mRNA vaccines and going straight to making the protein based off the mRNA template.

Both the person with previous covid and the person after their first vaccine dose have had their immune system primed to see the virus - for the spike protein (mainly) and other proteins for the previously infected person and the spike protein only for the vaccinated person. The next encounter (first vaccine for previously infected/second dose of vaccine for other) then induces the immune system to respond rapidly a second time to virus spike protein and strengthens the immune memory. This immune repose will be fast and very strong - expect that second dose of vaccine to knock you out more than the first, essentially the body is mounting a huge response to a pathogen it has a memory of. There’s no slow ramp up of immune response this time - it’s exceptionally fast if the first encounter with the virus/spike has done what it should.

Does this mean that someone who has been infected with Covid can have both doses of a vaccine or just the first dose - especially if they are aged 70+ ?

[djahern]

Does this mean that someone who has been infected with Covid can have both doses of a vaccine or just the first dose - especially if they are aged 70+ ?

Both doses would be fine. Just think of them as another exposure to the virus, although a fake one. Each exposure further strengthens the immune response.

[Guz-kop]

Its interesting now that Kent has a lower rate per 100k than all the surrounding counties, the fact is however even during LD2 - the ROI was going up like a rocket in Kent - and yet no one did anything substantial until London had to be pushed into T3 and then T4 within a matter of days. I can't help but where we would be tonight if we hadn't opened up in December.

Exactly. I said in the second week of December things were becoming increasingly difficult. No knowledge of a different strain was needed. A lot of damage was done in London in the weeks between tier 2 changing to 3

[Ashburton]

Both vaccines should work the same - essentially the first vaccine dose in someone who has previously had covid would act similar to the second dose of vaccine for someone not previously infected. Both vaccines just make the immune system respond to the spike protein, they just differ in how they get the person to make the spike protein to respond to - via viral vector being transcribed into mRNA and then assembled into protein based on the mRNA (oxford) or skipping the transcribing part for mRNA vaccines and going straight to making the protein based off the mRNA template.

Both the person with previous covid and the person after their first vaccine dose have had their immune system primed to see the virus - for the spike protein (mainly) and other proteins for the previously infected person and the spike protein only for the vaccinated person. The next encounter (first vaccine for previously infected/second dose of vaccine for other) then induces the immune system to respond rapidly a second time to virus spike protein and strengthens the immune memory. This immune repose will be fast and very strong - expect that second dose of vaccine to knock you out more than the first, essentially the body is mounting a huge response to a pathogen it has a memory of. There’s no slow ramp up of immune response this time - it’s exceptionally fast if the first encounter with the virus/spike has done what it should.

Appreciate the clarification dj, particularly the first paragraph.

Some ideas I was wondering about:
- Differences in the ability of an immune system primed with 'natural' Covid immunity to fight off a variant due to the difference in characteristics of a natural immune response to that prompted from vaccination, even a secondary vaccination.
- Whether in theory this would make the 'strongest' persistent immunity a moderate Covid infection followed by a vaccination (or the other way around) due to strong B, T and antigen capability.
- Whether the auto-adjuvanticity of the mRNA vaccines change the enduring T-response (in effect a different character of the short term immunity - as shown in the NHS study on reinfection released last week) and whether this response is more durable once we have higher levels of vaccination in the population.
- How does the above impact the antigenic drift we're seeing in emerging variants

I believe the last point is being tested as the durable antibody response is still being figured out 8+ months down from the trial groups, at least from what I read in a published article last week (NEJM maybe but don't hold me to that!).

[filopastry]

Exactly. I said in the second week of December things were becoming increasingly difficult. No knowledge of a different strain was needed. A lot of damage was done in London in the weeks between tier 2 changing to 3

Yes from early December it was apparent that cases had been going up in London at the end of the second national lockdown, that should have set a lot of alarm bells ringing irrespective of lack of knowledge any new strain, I recall there were even a few comments made about it on here.

[Welshred]

does anyone have a valid reason as to why Tesco are charging £5.50 to deliver to someone who is on the help/venerable list. It just seems like a money making scheme.

It's their standard delivery charge mate. They change based on the time of day you have the booking for. From memory it's around £3 at the start and the end of the day but more expensive, e.g. £5.50 in the middle of the day.

[djahern]

- Differences in the ability of an immune system primed with 'natural' Covid immunity to fight off a variant due to the difference in characteristics of a natural immune response to that prompted from vaccination, even a secondary vaccination.

It's an interesting question. You'd expect the natural covid immunity to be better as it has generated an immune response to other viral proteins and not exclusively to the spike protein like the vaccine has. Neutralising antibodies and T cell responses do seem to predominantly be against the spike in natural covid immunity (exclusively against spike in the vaccine immunity of course) but there are responses to other proteins too, both on the surface of the virus and within the virus. So immune responses to these proteins would be unaffected by a spike protein variant, making the natural covid immunity perhaps better than the vaccine immunity against virus with a mutated spike.

- Whether in theory this would make the 'strongest' persistent immunity a moderate Covid infection followed by a vaccination (or the other way around) due to strong B, T and antigen capability.

Probably the best would be a moderate Covid infection followed by another natural Covid infection. That way you boost the immune response to all the viral proteins that you've made in the first exposure. With the second exposure being the vaccine, you're only boosting the T cell and B cell responses to the spike protein exclusively. Of course the route for many will be natural covid exposure-first vaccine dose-second vaccine dose-second natural exposure-third natural exposure-etc if this becomes endemic. So the vaccination becomes a mechanism to lessen the severity of early exposures by priming the immune system (those who haven't been previously infected) or boosting the immune system (those that have had prior infection).

- Whether the auto-adjuvanticity of the mRNA vaccines change the enduring T-response (in effect a different character of the short term immunity - as shown in the NHS study on reinfection released last week) and whether this response is more durable once we have higher levels of vaccination in the population.
- How does the above impact the antigenic drift we're seeing in emerging variants

No clue on this one!

I think what we'll see going forward is a focus on the importance of T cell responses in robust immunity, much focus has been on antibodies up to now. The results from testing serum from previously infected patients against the newer variants that we've seen recently were
disappointing - in that they showed that a substantial number failed to neutralise the new variant. But these are much easier experiments to do than testing the T cell response in these patients to the new variant. I would still hope that those T cell responses would be robust against the new variant, but we'll have to wait to see the results of those studies.

[Fromola]

Kent was in tier 3 though and cases started to rise in December. Not sure I agree it was doing the job. Agree decision for tier 2 in London was insane, especially given footfall between London and Kent.

Yeah, but as you say it's too linked to London so London being in tier 2 has a knock on effect on the surrounding counties. Added to Kent being where the variant was spreading.

[Fromola]

Its interesting now that Kent has a lower rate per 100k than all the surrounding counties, the fact is however even during LD2 - the ROI was going up like a rocket in Kent - and yet no one did anything substantial until London had to be pushed into T3 and then T4 within a matter of days. I can't help but where we would be tonight if we hadn't opened up in December.

Like most of the rest of Europe. Covid still circulating, but not a disaster and far less pressure on the hospitals. Certainly not daily 4 figure deaths and the public being gaslighted.

If the whole country stayed in tier 4 in December and January we'd be able to ease it to tier 2/3 quicker than Easter and saved many thousands of lives in the process. There wouldn't be the same panic either.

There was 59000 official covid deaths in UK on 1st December (11th November we reached 50k). We'll reach 100k before the end of January. That's  thousands of extra deaths than there would have been because Boris didn't want the headline "Boris cancels Christmas".

[No666]

I think what we'll see going forward is a focus on the importance of T cell responses in robust immunity, much focus has been on antibodies up to now. The results from testing serum from previously infected patients against the newer variants that we've seen recently were disappointing - in that they showed that a substantial number failed to neutralise the new variant. But these are much easier experiments to do than testing the T cell response in these patients to the new variant. I would still hope that those T cell responses would be robust against the new variant, but we'll have to wait to see the results of those studies.

This was really interesting - thank you. Can you make an educated guesstimate as to when those studies would come through?

[Thepooloflife]

Both doses would be fine. Just think of them as another exposure to the virus, although a fake one. Each exposure further strengthens the immune response.

Ok, thank you.

[redbyrdz]

Why are cases in Liverpool so high? We have twice as many as Manchester now. Or is our second wave just lagging a bit behind?

[Millie]

does anyone have a valid reason as to why Tesco are charging £5.50 to deliver to someone who is on the help/venerable list. It just seems like a money making scheme.

Have you tried Iceland?  They have free delivery if you spend over £35.

[TepidT2O]

Why are cases in Liverpool so high? We have twice as many as Manchester now. Or is our second wave just lagging a bit behind?

New variant has hit Liverpool I’m afraid...

[Fromola]

Why are cases in Liverpool so high? We have twice as many as Manchester now. Or is our second wave just lagging a bit behind?

We were kept in tier 2 through December, Manchester and surrounding areas were in tier 3 and then 4 through December (added to which they turned up here for nights out which didn't help).

The areas that were left in tier 2 in December are the worst affected.

[lamad]

Pfizer have reduced their number of vaccines for the UK and Europe. Could this be why we are seeing an alarming drop in vaccinations?

News in Germany (various print and tv) have stated that one of the factories where the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine is manufactured is being expanded. Apparently the decision was to either continue to make a number x of the vaccine each week, or to add to the existing production capacity and then be able to make a number of xy. So at the moment they cannot deliver the originally planned numbers of jabs, and that goes for EU countries as well as e.g. the UK and Switzerland. From mid February on they then can manufacture way more with the new setup. I suppose the increase in production capacity must be worth slowing down production for three, four weeks. Pfizer have confirmed to von der Leyen that they will be able to deliver the agreed numbers for the first quarter, i.e. until the end of March.

[west_london_red]

That story about the temporary reduction output by Pfizer has been reported here too and that might explain the reduction in doses administered over the last few days but I read it as being more of a European issue then ours, whether that was because we had stock, could make up the numbers with the Oxford vaccine or I was just misunderstood that there would be no impact to the UK I don’t know. But either way, if they carry on at the 200-225k over the last couple of days the government will struggle to hits own target.

[TepidT2O]

Did I read that one batch of the AZ failed it’s testing so we’re a bit short?  Or have I imagined that!

[filopastry]

I see Israel are supposedly somewhat concerned from the data they have seen so far that one dose of Pfizer may be offering less protection than they would have expected from the Phase 3 trial data.

I haven't seen anything specific on how great the shortfall on protection may be, but it may end up casting doubt on our current strategy for the Pfizer rollout if it is significantly less effective than expected