There was a stirring piece on NPR that I was listening to on the way back from Montreal today that told the story of an American couple who lost their son on 9/11. Rather than sign up for war, they tried to make a real difference by raising $400,000 for a girls' school near Kabul. They signed up about 80 little girls, spent years there, and left in 2007, handing responsibility to the school over to the village elder, his brother, and his son, who by all accounts seemed like nice enough people. The hope and energy in their voices in interviews from those years suggested a really stand-up couple who wanted to make a difference.
This year, after confiscating a large cache of weapons from the school, the US military picked all three of them up, and charged them with supporting Taliban. The couple flew to Afghanistan to plead on behalf of the school and the village elders. After being presented with the evidence, the couple immediately retracted their support, and, convinced that the village elders were indeed supplying Taliban with access to the school, returned, broken-hearted and bitter.
The old man was released, but his son and brother at still at Bagram. They claim, and with sympathy from the Afghan Education Secretary, that they just made a deal with "Taliban" in order to keep the school open, even though there are only a tenth of the students now attending the school for fear of getting killed. Indeed, a massive blast killed a number of elementary school girls recently, and the principal regularly receives death threats.
This isn't a matter of helicopters or budgets, but rather of time. It's a serious challenge time-wise to set up the institutions that Afghans can use to advance themselves from a level where a typical career goal is advancing from O-Levels in blowing up little girls and shooting infidels to A-Levels in suicide.
Can Western forces stay there for a generation? It's doubtful that anything less will result in meaningful social change at a national level, and it'd probably take longer.
In any case, does it really fucking matter? America and Britain were only too happy to let Afghans kill each other until they had the bad luck and stupidity of letting bin Laden set up bases from which he launched 9/11. It is arguable that there are three main reasons for a continued presence in Afghanistan - revenge, pride and heart.
It's certainly no longer a long range threat, at least not the level of 9/11. Present domestic threats are more along the lines 7/7 than 9/11. If Pakistan, with has more resources and older institutions, is challenged by stamping out fanaticism borne of illiteracy, what chance does Afghanistan have when Western forces leave?