Author Topic: The Horse Racing thread (Read 327780 times)

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #2760 on:** March 11, 2020, 06:45:04 pm »

Proper case of seconditis for me at the minute, cost me 33.3pts so far this festival!!! Anyway tomorrow's:

1:30 Faugheen - honestly think they wouldn't have brought him here unless showing them the right signs. I think the new course could really play to his strengths and I'm hoping he bounces out in front and sets a good pace up from and gallops them into submission

2:10 The Storyteller - been on him since he qualified for this and see no reason to desert him now!

2:50 Frodon - this is price related. Think the new course is just perfect for him, suits front runners and thought he came back to himself the last day at Kempton, he's too big at the prices.

4:10 Simply the Betts & Death Duty - Betts won a nice handicap earlier in the season where he beat Imperial Aura who bolted up in the novice handicap yesterday. Again a front runner and could be a Ryanair horse next season. Death Duty was off the track for a long time and has been running over a distance too short for him I think leading to a low mark, he's a Shantou out of a presenting mare I feel 3 miles will really suit. I'm also a big fan of Gavin Brouder and feel his 7lb claim is a real gift.

5:30 Le Breuil, Plan of Attack & Milan Native - all fancied and all with top jocks, simple.

rebel23 · « **Reply #2761 on:** March 11, 2020, 10:24:15 pm »

Going to be Mullins day tomorrow i think.

I will post my selections at 10am or so. The market is crucial here and I can't fathom everything out yet.

Elliott/de Brumhead and Mullins are all bringing top class horses to the table so it requires careful study.

Remember today's RSA chase where their runners were all at the finish? it could be like that again...

rebel23 · « **Reply #2762 on:** March 12, 2020, 07:23:46 am »

Today is going to be very interesting !

I am 2 points up (profit) so far thanks to following the McManus horses but today it looks like im going to stake 4 or 5 points which means i could finish down and nursing a loss heading into day 4.

We don't want that to happen!

So today is make or break.

I am still monitoring the markets on betfair and not sure when I will post. Probably between 11-12.

CasinoJack · « **Reply #2763 on:** March 12, 2020, 09:22:49 am »

Had a good few people tell me The Jam Man EW in the 3:30

liversaint · « **Reply #2764 on:** March 12, 2020, 09:55:18 am »

2.50 - Aso e.w at around 25/1 is a good value bet given its record in the race

1730 - Deise Aba has some good form in the book and has One of the better amateurs on board.

Phil M · « **Reply #2765 on:** March 12, 2020, 10:14:36 am »

Quote from: duvva on March 9, 2020, 09:18:11 pm

Excellent write ups. Always interested to hear others Points of view on their selections.

Love to get your thoughts on today mate.

rebel23 · « **Reply #2766 on:** March 12, 2020, 11:20:01 am »

Willie Mullins got off the mark in the bumper in the last race yesterday much to his relief no doubt.

The Champion trainer is back and he's got some serious ammunition. I intend to stay on the right side of him today. If he has a good day i'll be quids in if not i'll be down 4 points (stakes) or so. Not really a disaster for me.

Lets see what he's got then...

1:30

Faugheen is a Cheltenham superstar at least over hurdles. He is 3/3 over fences in Ireland and that includes two Grade 1's. You couldn't really ask for more. There's been good money for it this morning as it was 5.5 (9/2) on Betfair earlier and now into 4.8. I suspect it will go eve shorter if there is confidence about it. .

2:50

Willie Mullins again. He could very easily double up here with Min who is a very consistent chaser. The Fav at the moment is from the well respected de Bromhead yard and normally you would have to respect that. However this is the Cheltenham and Willie Mullins we're talking about here. He knows how to win these races and so long as there is solid market support then you can bet with confidence.

This is what Mullins says about Min:

'Min(Paul) disappointed here last year when we probably used the wrong tactics. We will keep things straightforward this time and hopefully he will run a big race'

So he is confident. Lets hope its not misplaced.

3:30

Mullins doesn' think he can win this race but he's running a previous winner in Penhill. This horse has placed very consistently in high grade races and I like the look of a place bet on Betfair @ 3.5 (5/2). The short priced Fav is last years winner and will probably win but all i'm hoping for is a place 1/2/3.

4:50

Willie has a few runners in this race but everything points to Colreevy. He is now 4/1 on Betfair and was as big as 7/1 last night.

This is what Willie says about his runners:

'We run four in the 2 mile mares novices hurdle. Colreevy (Paul) is a grade one bumper winner and looks the type to go close here. She will love the ground. Concertista (Daryl Jacob) was second in this race last year but the trip could be a bit short for her at this stage. She could be each-way material. '

Now you might notice all the runners ive selected have got Paul Townend on board who is the principle jockey so that is a big positive IMO.

This is what I'm going to do:

Treble: Faugheen (7/2), Min (2/1), Colreevy (4/1).

A juicy 65/1.

I'm not going to bet a single on Faugheen so if he loses I don't take a double hit. That would be foolish.

However I will back Min and Colreevy near the off.

I will also back Penhill in the place market. I've got half my stake on NOW and the rest near the off. 3.5 is a nice price

Well that's me done. Good luck everyone and God bless Willie Mullins!

Red Viper · « **Reply #2767 on:** March 12, 2020, 01:36:55 pm »

Wow. Great finish in the first

y2w902 · « **Reply #2768 on:** March 12, 2020, 01:40:28 pm »

What a race, gutted Faugheen didn't get up.

rebel23 · « **Reply #2769 on:** March 12, 2020, 01:46:22 pm »

My treble dead after one leg. Hate when that happens.

However the Mullins horses are running much better so that's good news.

rebel23 · « **Reply #2770 on:** March 12, 2020, 01:51:32 pm »

Wow look at that:

https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces/status/1238100007997313024/photo/1

Quite rtare you see one that close

LallanaInPyjamas · « **Reply #2771 on:** March 12, 2020, 02:18:01 pm »

Two brilliant races. Gutted with that one, so close.

rebel23 · « **Reply #2772 on:** March 12, 2020, 02:57:43 pm »

Min!

bryanod · « **Reply #2773 on:** March 12, 2020, 02:59:29 pm »

Townend fucked up on relegate being 40l back then leads that race from front to end. Mad.

rebel23 · « **Reply #2774 on:** March 12, 2020, 03:01:19 pm »

Quote from: bryanod on March 12, 2020, 02:59:29 pm

Townend fucked up on relegate being 40l back then leads that race from front to end. Mad.

He was under orders. Read what Mullins said in my post about changing tactics.

Worked a treat.

bryanod · « **Reply #2775 on:** March 12, 2020, 04:50:14 pm »

Quote from: rebel23 on March 12, 2020, 03:01:19 pm

He was under orders. Read what Mullins said in my post about changing tactics.

Worked a treat.

Ah yeah was giving kudos for that one and criticising previous.

Am wondering is Cheltenham about to be cancelled tomorrow.

rodderzzz · « **Reply #2776 on:** March 12, 2020, 05:08:31 pm »

Lads I’ve got a bet on can cash out now for $600 but if plan of attack finish too 5 in last race I win over &6k should I let it ride?

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #2777 on:** March 12, 2020, 05:15:34 pm »

Quote from: rodderzzz on March 12, 2020, 05:08:31 pm

Lads I’ve got a bet on can cash out now for $600 but if plan of attack finish too 5 in last race I win over &6k should I let it ride?

If you can afford to lose your stake, and the cash out wont change your life, let it ride.

rodderzzz · « **Reply #2778 on:** March 12, 2020, 05:19:39 pm »

Quote from: Barneylfc on March 12, 2020, 05:15:34 pm

If you can afford to lose your stake, and the cash out wont change your life, let it ride.

Yeah that’s what I was thinking don’t know a lot about horses and made the bet on a whim lol. Looks like he’s sixth fav so gunna roll with it I’m up this week anyway

Fiasco · « **Reply #2779 on:** March 12, 2020, 05:40:16 pm »

Quote from: rodderzzz on March 12, 2020, 05:19:39 pm

Yeah that’s what I was thinking don’t know a lot about horses and made the bet on a whim lol. Looks like he’s sixth fav so gunna roll with it I’m up this week anyway

Go get the ale in lad!

oldfordie · « **Reply #2780 on:** March 12, 2020, 05:41:31 pm »

Quote from: rodderzzz on March 12, 2020, 05:08:31 pm

Lads I’ve got a bet on can cash out now for $600 but if plan of attack finish too 5 in last race I win over &6k should I let it ride?

Hope you let it ride, well done if you have, finished 4th in a big handicap which will pay out for 4th place.

MaskedBenitez · « **Reply #2781 on:** March 12, 2020, 05:41:58 pm »

Had a lovely double there

Double EW

Milan Native @Guaranteed Price (11/1)
Thu - 5:30 Cheltenham - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
Open
Concertista @Guaranteed Price (9/2)
Thu - 4:50 Cheltenham - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
Won
Stake: £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
To return:£1081.20

& also as singles

Milan Native @Guaranteed Price (11/1)
Thu - 5:30 Cheltenham - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
Open
Stake: £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
To return:£242.74

Single - Each Way:
Stake: 30.00 - Returns: 111.00
4:50 Cheltenham - Win
Concertista @ Guaranteed Price (9/2) 3@1/5

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #2782 on:** March 12, 2020, 05:51:40 pm »

If you want to see a jockey give a horse a shit ride look at Mullins on Fitzhenry in that race. He’s sat there with a double handful 30 lengths off the pace as they’re turning for home. Stays on like an absolute train to get sixth. Stewards need to be dragging him in.

rodderzzz · « **Reply #2783 on:** March 12, 2020, 06:15:58 pm »

Quote from: oldfordie on March 12, 2020, 05:41:31 pm

Hope you let it ride, well done if you have, finished 4th in a big handicap which will pay out for 4th place.

I’m a jammy bastard 😂😂😂

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #2784 on:** March 12, 2020, 06:38:50 pm »

Quote from: ohweloveyerbaldyhead on March 11, 2020, 06:45:04 pm

Proper case of seconditis for me at the minute, cost me 33.3pts so far this festival!!! Anyway tomorrow's:

1:30 Faugheen - honestly think they wouldn't have brought him here unless showing them the right signs. I think the new course could really play to his strengths and I'm hoping he bounces out in front and sets a good pace up from and gallops them into submission

2:10 The Storyteller - been on him since he qualified for this and see no reason to desert him now!

2:50 Frodon - this is price related. Think the new course is just perfect for him, suits front runners and thought he came back to himself the last day at Kempton, he's too big at the prices.

4:10 Simply the Betts & Death Duty - Betts won a nice handicap earlier in the season where he beat Imperial Aura who bolted up in the novice handicap yesterday. Again a front runner and could be a Ryanair horse next season. Death Duty was off the track for a long time and has been running over a distance too short for him I think leading to a low mark, he's a Shantou out of a presenting mare I feel 3 miles will really suit. I'm also a big fan of Gavin Brouder and feel his 7lb claim is a real gift.

5:30 Le Breuil, Plan of Attack & Milan Native - all fancied and all with top jocks, simple.

Much better day, would've been really topped off had The Storyteller got up. Robert James gave Milan Native some ride in the last there!

oldfordie · « **Reply #2785 on:** March 12, 2020, 06:50:19 pm »

Quote from: rodderzzz on March 12, 2020, 06:15:58 pm

I’m a jammy bastard 😂😂😂

Nahh, took a bit of bottle to let it ride so well deserved.

always best to let it ride as bookies cut the amount riding on the final selection. robbing gits.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #2786 on:** March 12, 2020, 07:24:25 pm »

Quote from: rodderzzz on March 12, 2020, 06:15:58 pm

I’m a jammy bastard 😂😂😂

What a result. Very nice.

Phil M · « **Reply #2787 on:** March 12, 2020, 07:29:09 pm »

Quote from: duvva on March 12, 2020, 07:24:25 pm

What a result. Very nice.

Thoughts on the Gold Cup mate?

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #2788 on:** March 12, 2020, 07:50:27 pm »

Tomorrow's picks:

2:10 Aramon - fancied him for this for ages as I actually thought he would go close in the Champion Hurdle. 6th in a supreme is extremely strong festival form when going into handicap company

2:50 Ramses De Teille - plenty of classier sorts than him in this but he is truly battle hardened and I like that sort in this race, goes there with a nice chance

3:30 Al Boum Photo - bolted up last year and given exactly the same prep this year. Fancy him a lot.

4:50 Paloma Blue & Gino Trail - Paloma Faith ran a lovely race in Dublin Racing Festival & I think he should go well here. Gino Trail moved from Kerry Lee to Fergal O'Brien and was kept off until prepping for this and bolting up the last day. He was second in this in 2018 off a pound higher so weighted to go very close for a shrewd yard

5:30 Column Of Fire & The Bosses Oscar - both been targeted for this by the master, simple.

rebel23 · « **Reply #2789 on:** March 13, 2020, 10:17:09 am »

Quote from: ohweloveyerbaldyhead on March 12, 2020, 07:50:27 pm

3:30 Al Boum Photo - bolted up last year and given exactly the same prep this year. Fancy him a lot.

Really fancy Al Bourn Photo as well. Mullins says it has a great chance and there is good money for it this morning now into 3/1 on betfair.

Mullins:

'Al Boum Photo (Paul) has a lot going for him here and we are hoping he can land this prestigious race for the second time.'

My only bet today ...

Fiasco · « **Reply #2790 on:** March 13, 2020, 12:17:17 pm »

The only thing putting me off Al Boum Photo is that its very hard to win back-to-back Gold Cups. I think Santini has a great chance.

I'm also very excited to see Allmankind in the Triumph. He wont get it all his own way up front but he's got some engine on him.

Phil M · « **Reply #2791 on:** March 13, 2020, 12:22:14 pm »

Quote from: ohweloveyerbaldyhead on March 12, 2020, 07:50:27 pm

Tomorrow's picks:

4:50 Paloma Blue & Gino Trail - Paloma Faith ran a lovely race in Dublin Racing Festival & I think he should go well here. Gino Trail moved from Kerry Lee to Fergal O'Brien and was kept off until prepping for this and bolting up the last day. He was second in this in 2018 off a pound higher so weighted to go very close for a shrewd yard

You'd think she'd be tired from all the singing mate.

Statto Red · « **Reply #2792 on:** March 13, 2020, 01:35:28 pm »

What a race that was, the leader fell at the last & was miles ahead.

planet-terror · « **Reply #2793 on:** March 13, 2020, 01:36:04 pm »

devestating if your a goshen backer..could see it coming a few strides out.
what a horse though

Buck Pete · « **Reply #2794 on:** March 13, 2020, 01:38:46 pm »

Quote from: planet-terror on March 13, 2020, 01:36:04 pm

devestating if your a goshen backer..could see it coming a few strides out.
what a horse though

Yep. You could defo see that coming. I was extremely worried when it reached the fence Not had a winner since day 1 and that would have put me back on track.

sick

y2w902 · « **Reply #2795 on:** March 13, 2020, 01:39:17 pm »

Wtf was the jockey doing though, seriously.

planet-terror · « **Reply #2796 on:** March 13, 2020, 01:40:52 pm »

Quote from: Buck Pete on March 13, 2020, 01:38:46 pm

Yep. You could defo see that coming. I was extremely worried when it reached the fence Not had a winner since day 1 and that would have put me back on track.

sick

should have settled him better with that lead but thats the pressure of cheltenham

rebel23 · « **Reply #2797 on:** March 13, 2020, 01:51:06 pm »

Unlucky that

Will probably go to Aintree but will no doubt be a very short price

Statto Red · « **Reply #2798 on:** March 13, 2020, 02:06:28 pm »

Showing the slow mo on ITV, the horse after the final fence Goshen gets its front & hind feet stuck together on landing, thats what causes the rider to be unseated

rebel23 · « **Reply #2799 on:** March 13, 2020, 02:58:26 pm »

What a race.

Mullins again!