Topic: PL: Liverpool 2 v Fulham 0 ‘40 Mo, Shaqiri '53

[MartinSkrtelsBasement]

Does he mean the Cardiff game, four goals, and the Red Star home game, four goals?

I think it's a fair comment to say that we wern't great against Cardiff to be honest, without being accused of taking gibberish.

Red Star away was very poor, but again, not moaning. This is the best start we've had in my lifetime and i'm enjoying it.

If we are going to win anything though, we will need another gear. It is my opinion that we are missing opportunities to test that gear, that is all.

[Jookie]

If we are going to win anything though, we will need another gear. It is my opinion that we are missing opportunities to test that gear, that is all.

These are fair points but I don't think we are missing any opportunity.

The opportunity is to have a style of play that allows us to win a lot of games. Whether that is through pragmatic football or expansive football. This team has shown it can do both. Maybe it's been weighted more towards the pragmatic football so far.

What happens over the next few months will be interesting. If we go on to put up an 85+ point season then this approach will be vindicated. If results fall off a cliff and we don't rediscover any fluidity to our attacking football then the people raising concern now will be correct. I think it's a bit of a stretch to say we are missing opportunities at the moment by not smashing teams though. We are deservedly winning a lot football matches. Even if the margin of victory is only 1-0 or 2-0 on a number of occasions,

[Mr_Shane]

These are fair points but I don't think we are missing any opportunity.

The opportunity is to have a style of play that allows us to win a lot of games. Whether that is through pragmatic football or expansive football. This team has shown it can do both. Maybe it's been weighted more towards the pragmatic football so far.

What happens over the next few months will be interesting. If we go on to put up an 85+ point season then this approach will be vindicated. If results fall off a cliff and we don't rediscover any fluidity to our attacking football then the people raising concern now will be correct. I think it's a bit of a stretch to say we are missing opportunities at the moment by not smashing teams though. We are deservedly winning a lot football matches. Even if the margin of victory is only 1-0 or 2-0 on a number of occasions,

I agree. If we want to win the title, points matter not how we got them. Five years from now, we won't even remember that we were not very good and were struggling against Brighton or Cardiff or Huddersfield. Why... I can't even remember the teams we struggled against when we won the last title and who we lost to, but I am sure there were a few.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Dunno which Red Star game but certainly the 4 goal, 80% possession, 2 shot conceded Cardiff game 

Pretty much our most convincing display this season

The Cardiff game showed that we can be ruthless when we want to and that we can up our tempo when we need to. They scored and immediately we responded with two more goals.

[hesbighesred]

The Cardiff game showed that we can be ruthless when we want to and that we can up our tempo when we need to. They scored and immediately we responded with two more goals.

Yep. I do think it's fair to have concerns about our overall performance, but for sure it's not about racking up cricket scores. One thing we have done very well this season, by and large, is score at important times - towards the end or beginning of halves, soon after they've scored etc. We've not been as deadly as we can be, but we've been pretty deadly when we've needed to be.

[Ciara (with a capital "C")]

However, the path we are on now might end up being the best of both world's. Pragmatic football when required, explosive, exhilarating football when needed to. I'm convinced we still have that in our locker. That brings me to the point below. It's the only bit I disagreed with from you post. I don't think we were very good at coming back last season. I honestly can't remember a big comeback win in the league last season. Maybe i"m missing games in my memory.

Sorry, I wasn’t referring to comebacks - more needing to up our game when it comes to it. If we go 1 or 2 down in a game, have we got it in us to turn on the kind of performance we need to score 2/3 goals. I guess it is a come back of sorts but the muscle memory I was referring to was the controlling, dominant, heavy metal football bit where we can blow teams away in 15/20 minute spells.

[El Lobo]

I think it's a fair comment to say that we wern't great against Cardiff to be honest, without being accused of taking gibberish.

Red Star away was very poor, but again, not moaning. This is the best start we've had in my lifetime and i'm enjoying it.

If we are going to win anything though, we will need another gear. It is my opinion that we are missing opportunities to test that gear, that is all.

You said it was less than convincing.... I’m not sure how much more convincing you want?

[newterp]

You said it was less than convincing.... I’m not sure how much more convincing you want?

probably was upset by the fluke goal - before and after which they were a non-existent threat.

[jckliew]

Just noted that the 1st goal was a result of our Colossus shouting at Alisson to release the ball!   

Whatta leader!   

[redk84]

People say that we are not convincing at the moment but I dont see it like that...(ok 4/10 wins is not the best return but some of the opposition had something to do with that apart from that redstar game)

We're not smashing in 3 or 4 goals but we are controlling the games much better than we ever have under klopp. There's no anxiety attacks watching Liverpool play these days...

you can't tell me that last season or season before if we go 1 or 2 goals up you'd be quite relaxed about everything. This season at 1-0 Im fine and at 2-0 im sipping a cuppa with my feet up

I cannot speak for everyone but seeing us become a team that can better manage a game, whatever type of game it is (yeah other teams will have moments in games where they are on top) but to see us able to manage it and still come out winning for the most part is the sign of REAL quality I've been waiting for. Its what the true top teams can do. The ones that build a legacy

Now I am yet to be convinced of us being able to turn things around if we go 1-0 or 2-0 down to a side that has a bit about them....more often than not I mean.....but thats pretty much the hardest scenario in the game and one most teams struggle with anyway. I would rather that be the final frontier for this team.

*Caveat - the midfield created in the summer has not had a chance to establish itself properly yet*

At the moment I'm happy seeing what this team looks like it has developed into (still a working progress because the season is young) because it is something i personally have yearned for since the Rafa days when we last looked like a team this good where you'd fancy us in pretty much every game. No fear.

[PaulF]

Could it be a psychology thing? If we are set up to try and smash teams, we get used to it. When we then come up against a team we are struggling to score against, the panic sets in, both on the field and on the terraces. If instead we know we are unlikely to concede a goal, and more than likely to get a solitary winner, the players are more comfortable?

[classycarra]

Just noted that the 1st goal was a result of our Colossus shouting at Alisson to release the ball!   

Whatta leader!   

I think TAA actually having the thought to make the run and pointing (maybe shouting) where he wants it played more of a role!

[Macca201188]

Just noted that the 1st goal was a result of our Colossus shouting at Alisson to release the ball!   

Whatta leader!   

Loved that, TAA did well too making the run.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

People say that we are not convincing at the moment but I dont see it like that...(ok 4/10 wins is not the best return but some of the opposition had something to do with that apart from that redstar game)

We're not smashing in 3 or 4 goals but we are controlling the games much better than we ever have under klopp. There's no anxiety attacks watching Liverpool play these days...

you can't tell me that last season or season before if we go 1 or 2 goals up you'd be quite relaxed about everything. This season at 1-0 Im fine and at 2-0 im sipping a cuppa with my feet up

I cannot speak for everyone but seeing us become a team that can better manage a game, whatever type of game it is (yeah other teams will have moments in games where they are on top) but to see us able to manage it and still come out winning for the most part is the sign of REAL quality I've been waiting for. Its what the true top teams can do. The ones that build a legacy

Now I am yet to be convinced of us being able to turn things around if we go 1-0 or 2-0 down to a side that has a bit about them....more often than not I mean.....but thats pretty much the hardest scenario in the game and one most teams struggle with anyway. I would rather that be the final frontier for this team.

*Caveat - the midfield created in the summer has not had a chance to establish itself properly yet*

At the moment I'm happy seeing what this team looks like it has developed into (still a working progress because the season is young) because it is something i personally have yearned for since the Rafa days when we last looked like a team this good where you'd fancy us in pretty much every game. No fear.

I agree, in previous years I always felt we needed to score 3 goals to be comfortable and assure the win. Even with two goals up, as soon as we concede we've blown leads too many times.

This time around, I feel like I did under Rafa and Houllier, if we score, we aren't losing and if we score twice, we're almost certain a win

[stockdam]

We are deservedly winning a lot football matches. Even if the margin of victory is only 1-0 or 2-0 on a number of occasions,

I haven't checked but my gut feel says that most teams that win the league have a lot of close matches where they win 1-0 or 2-0. Manchester City are an exception as they have been winning by 3 or 4 goals quite regularly. That puts them in a different class to past winners and shows just how well we are doing to be just 2 points adrift.

[So Howard Philips]

I haven't checked but my gut feel says that most teams that win the league have a lot of close matches where they win 1-0 or 2-0. Manchester City are an exception as they have been winning by 3 or 4 goals quite regularly. That puts them in a different class to past winners and shows just how well we are doing to be just 2 points adrift.

I think last season City had a fairly dry spell when they were only winning by the odd goal so.....

[deFacto please, you bastards]

I think last season City had a fairly dry spell when they were only winning by the odd goal so.....

They had multiple of games like that, a couple of them winning in the last minute via Sterling, there was a game against Palace when they missed a last minute penalty [I think Palace lost 1-0 or it was 1-1 at that point, can't remember]

[Jookie]

They had multiple of games like that, a couple of them winning in the last minute via Sterling, there was a game against Palace when they missed a last minute penalty [I think Palace lost 1-0 or it was 1-1 at that point, can't remember

2017/18 Manchester City won 32 league games:

10 games by a 1 goal margin
9 games by a 2 goal margin
5 games by a 3 goal margin
3 games by a 4 goal margin
4 games by a 5 goal margin
1 game by a 6 goal margin

So 19 games won by 1 or 2 goals (or ~60%)

For comparaison, Chelsea in 2016/17 won 30 league games:

12 games by a 1 goal margin
9 games by a 2 goal margin
6 games by a 3 goal margin
2 games by a 4 goal margin
1 game by a 5 goal margin

So 21 games won by 1 or 2 goals (or ~70% of total wins)

This season Manchester City have won 10 league games. 50% of those games by a 1 or 2 goal margin. Though 40% by a 5 goal margin.

Liverpool have won 9 league games this season with 66% of games by a 1 or 2 goal margin.

Even with a really small sample size, what I'd take from that is the % of games we are winning by 1 or 2 goals is similar to the last 2 title winners. But City this season are winning a high % of games by a 5 goal margin this season. They actually won a relatively high percentage of game last seasons by 4 or more goals (25% of their wins). That equated to a win by 4 or more goals every 5 games. That's incredible going for an entire league season. So far this season that's been upped further.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Man City's opening 12 games from last year

v Brighton  W[2-0]
v Everton [1-1]
v Bournemouth W[1-2]
v Liverpool W [5-0]
v Watford W [6-0]
v Palace W [5-0]
v Chelsea W [1-0]
v Stoke W [7-2]
v Burnley W [3-0]
v West Brom W [3-2]
v Arsenal W [3-1]
v Leicester  W[2-0]

GF: 40
GA: 8

This season

GF: 36
GA: 5

[PhaseOfPlay]

Most games are won by 1 or 2 goals. The difference between top teams and average to bottom teams is that the top teams can more regularly pad their goals against the bottom teams, which increases their goal difference. But on average, most games end 1-0 or 2-0, as opposed to 3-0 or higher

[TheShanklyGates]

Most games are won by 1 or 2 goals. The difference between top teams and average to bottom teams is that the top teams can more regularly pad their goals against the bottom teams, which increases their goal difference. But on average, most games end 1-0 or 2-0, as opposed to 3-0 or higher

So Mark Lawrenson is onto something with his predictions then...

[Jookie]

Most games are won by 1 or 2 goals. The difference between top teams and average to bottom teams is that the top teams can more regularly pad their goals against the bottom teams, which increases their goal difference. But on average, most games end 1-0 or 2-0, as opposed to 3-0 or higher

I suppose that was the gist of why I looked at Chelsea and City's results last year. Even in a 90 odd point season and a 100 point season, the teams who won 30+ games did so with mainly with wins by 1 or 2 goal margins.

Yet this season people are equating us winning a number of our games by a single goal or 2 as walking a tight rope. I don't think we are. We can play better but accumulating wins by a 1 or 2 goal margin is what most title winning teams do.

[Stevo79]

City won four games in a row last season from late Nov to mid Dec, all by one goal and they conceded in each of those four games.

We are doing just fine, they just happen to be on a run that is surely not going to continue. And, if it does, fair play...

[Stevo79]

City won four games in a row last season from late Nov to mid Dec, all by one goal and they conceded in each of those four games.

We are doing just fine, they just happen to be on a run that is surely not going to continue. And, if it does, fair play...

That also included winners in the 83rd, 84th and 96th minutes. That's how you win league titles, not by smashing teams every week.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I suppose that was the gist of why I looked at Chelsea and City's results last year. Even in a 90 odd point season and a 100 point season, the teams who won 30+ games did so with mainly with wins by 1 or 2 goal margins.

Yet this season people are equating us winning a number of our games by a single goal or 2 as walking a tight rope. I don't think we are. We can play better but accumulating wins by a 1 or 2 goal margin is what most title winning teams do.

Yip. As long as we're scoring in every game, we have a chance.

[PhaseOfPlay]

That also included winners in the 83rd, 84th and 96th minutes. That's how you win league titles, not by smashing teams every week.

You win league titles by scoring goals. The more goals you get, the more points you accrue. Under 3-points-for-a-win, scoring goals is better than stopping them. So as long as we keep scoring and our defence is at least slightly above average, we'll stand a chance

[The Test]

Impressed by what I saw of Sessengnon. Would he class as homegrown? Very hand if so. young, talented, homegrown left wing / left back cover ready to come in and be moulded by klopp. No brainer?

[Indomitable_Carp]

I suppose that was the gist of why I looked at Chelsea and City's results last year. Even in a 90 odd point season and a 100 point season, the teams who won 30+ games did so with mainly with wins by 1 or 2 goal margins.

Yet this season people are equating us winning a number of our games by a single goal or 2 as walking a tight rope. I don't think we are. We can play better but accumulating wins by a 1 or 2 goal margin is what most title winning teams do.

In previous years it might well have felt like a tightrope, considering how liable we were to concede goals.

But now we have one of the most solid defences in Europe. Those 1-0 and 2-0 wins now feel comfortable. I think people have struggled to remove themselves from the mindset built up over years of shoddy defence.

We are still only two points behind City, and now two points clear of Chelsea as well. And to think our attack still hasn't properly clicked into gear. Anything is still possible, including a City slip up.

[Jookie]

Yip. As long as we're scoring in every game, we have a chance.

You need to win 30+ games so you can't have many games were you don't score. I think it's only City who we haven't scored against so far in the league. This type of regular scoring needs to continue,

Unless you are scoring loads, you need to keep a reasonable amount of clean sheets too. They way we are currently playing this is key also. Last year City got a number of 3-1 wins. We are tending to win 1-0 or 2-0.

Is there a 'magic; number in terms of goal difference that most title winning teams get? I remember a year or so ago I looked at goal difference for the teams that have got top 4 in the PL era. Pretty much any team who ended up with a goal difference of +30 or better got a top 4 finish. It wasn't absolutely necessary for Top 4 but I was astounded by how many top 4 teams had a +30 goal difference and how if you got that type of GD you were almost guaranteed top 4 (I think there was 1 exception over about number of seasons).

[Jookie]

Impressed by what I saw of Sessengnon. Would he class as homegrown? Very hand if so. young, talented, homegrown left wing / left back cover ready to come in and be moulded by klopp. No brainer?

I'd love us to get Ryan Sessegnon. Think he'd be brilliant in our system.

However, an 18 year old at +40M with only 10 Premier League starts in his career is a risk. No matter how talented they are. For me it's not a 'no brainer' but he's a player I think we'd definitely be interested in if available.

[Stevo79]

You win league titles by scoring goals. The more goals you get, the more points you accrue. Under 3-points-for-a-win, scoring goals is better than stopping them. So as long as we keep scoring and our defence is at least slightly above average, we'll stand a chance

I'm fairly sure we're on the same page, and I agree.

I'm just happy with how things are going, and confident the extra goals will come.

We scored 84 goals last season, ten more than anyone bar City, and still only finished fourth. Keep the defence as it is and things will be fine and dandy.

[The Test]

I'd love us to get Ryan Sessegnon. Think he'd be brilliant in our system.

However, an 18 year old at +40M with only 10 Premier League starts in his career is a risk. No matter how talented they are. For me it's not a 'no brainer' but he's a player I think we'd definitely be interested in if available.

Is that figure being bandied around?

[harleydanger]

You win league titles by scoring goals. The more goals you get, the more points you accrue. Under 3-points-for-a-win, scoring goals is better than stopping them. So as long as we keep scoring and our defence is at least slightly above average, we'll stand a chance

Didn't Spuds manage to lose the league despite having the most scored and least conceded?

[Stevo79]

Didn't Spuds manage to lose the league despite having the most scored and least conceded?

Yes, which highlights the value of turning a few of those draws into one-goal wins. Chelsea finished seven clear of them in the end.

[fridge]

Impressed by what I saw of Sessengnon. Would he class as homegrown? Very hand if so. young, talented, homegrown left wing / left back cover ready to come in and be moulded by klopp. No brainer?

He's English

[PaulF]

Didn't Spuds manage to lose the league despite having the most scored and least conceded?

That's so spurs

[newterp]

That's so spurs

One of those “put the pressure on” trophies

[harleydanger]

That's so spurs

Peak spuds

[BassTunedToRed]

Most games are won by 1 or 2 goals. The difference between top teams and average to bottom teams is that the top teams can more regularly pad their goals against the bottom teams, which increases their goal difference. But on average, most games end 1-0 or 2-0, as opposed to 3-0 or higher

In case you're interested... since the start of 2016/17 in the PL:
164 2-1s (as in 2-1 or 1-2)
142 1-0s
107 2-0s
94 1-1s
75 3-1s
48 3-0s
and so on...

[BassTunedToRed]

Is there a 'magic; number in terms of goal difference that most title winning teams get?

Average over the past 10 seasons is 53, ranging from Leicester with 32 to Man City with 79. Leicester aside the lowest is 41 (twice) so I guess that's the first target.