Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19  (Read 237397 times)

Offline jammin

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #160 on: September 5, 2018, 04:50:20 pm »
It could be a browser/firewall issue? I can see at home system, but it's not usually visible in my workplace.

Can you try clearing your cache and accessing again?

All working! Clearing my cache in Chrome seems to have done the trick but it wasn't showing in Firefox or Safari either. Anyways, great to see that little graph and let's just hope we're on +6 after we smash Spurs!

Offline stevieheighway

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #161 on: September 5, 2018, 05:21:01 pm »
All working! Clearing my cache in Chrome seems to have done the trick but it wasn't showing in Firefox or Safari either. Anyways, great to see that little graph and let's just hope we're on +6 after we smash Spurs!

 :butt you haven't been paying attention have you
I'm really looking forward to the future. People can say it's going to be grim if they want but i'm a Liverpool fan...and I don't fucking believe them.

Offline Suareznumber7

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #162 on: September 6, 2018, 02:47:28 am »
I’m shocked that there is any hint of optimism with the Spurs match.  We’ve got no chance.  I’m just hoping that the loss isn’t as bad as last year.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #163 on: September 6, 2018, 07:37:59 am »
You're nearly all getting it now  ;D

Offline Hymer Red

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #164 on: September 6, 2018, 09:11:37 am »
I’m shocked that there is any hint of optimism with the Spurs match.  We’ve got no chance.  I’m just hoping that the loss isn’t as bad as last year.

“People are building us up, I don’t want to be built up. I still think we’re one of those teams that will have to be looking over our shoulder.”
This Klopp fella, hes not bad is he?

Offline cskay

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #165 on: September 6, 2018, 09:19:56 am »
We have no chance, unless agent Gomez does a hit job on Harry Kane in England training  ;D

Offline harleydanger

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #166 on: September 6, 2018, 10:46:36 am »
I’d honestly be surprised if spurs don’t put 5 past us
WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE!

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Offline Mr_Shane

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #167 on: September 6, 2018, 02:08:55 pm »
I’d honestly be surprised if spurs don’t put 5 past us

Only 5?

Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #168 on: September 14, 2018, 06:28:52 pm »
Internationals done. Thank fuck for that. Fuck FIFA. Seriously.

Right then. Back to the coal face. APLT preview?

Don't mind if I do.



After an early season break for the game's mostly self-appointed overlords to wank each other off for no sporting purpose whatsoever, the Premier League returns this weekend with a veritable fest of footy. What's at stake? EVERYTHING!

EVERY GAME IS MASSIVE!

First up, an APLT head to head clash.
Tottenham v Liverpool. (Venue tbc)

Liverpool and Spurs are currently both entitled to feel a little light-headed as they attempt to draw breath in the rarefied air North of the 90 point line on the APLT. The Reds occupy a dizzying +4, meaning they could lose this and still be comfortably ahead of course to win the league. Jurgen Klopp will hear no such nonsense, of course, and will instead demand that Prof extends the graph further to accommodate an unprecedented start for LFC. The APLT model demands a draw. The fans demand a win. And it's an early kick-off, so the broadcasters demand GOALS GOALS GOALS!

Spurs, meanwhile, are giving a public face to the national homelessness crisis by staging a prolonged sleep out. The shop doorways of Tottenham have been fitted with spikes to keep Harry Kane from trying to doss down in them in his army surplus sleeping bag. (According to Harry, the stadium is completed, he laid the last brick himself, or at least it brushed his leg as the brickie was laying it and that counts. On his kids life.)
Despite having no place to lay down, Tottenham have got their own season off to a flier, and are also a point above the 90 pt line. Having been on +4 themselves just a few weeks ago. Has the model broken for good or is this just early season turbulence?

It's a Par 1 for Liverpool and as it is still technically a "home" match, a daunting Par 3 for Spurs.
Spurs win: LFC +3 SPU +1
Draw: LFC +4 SPU -1
Liverpool win: LFC +6 SPU -2

Next up, it's Chelsea V Newly Promoted Cardiff.
Chelsea's 100% record in the Premier League this season should be safe enough on the visit of the Welsh side, who have managed just two points from their first four games back in the top flight. It's looking like it could be a short stay for them, and anything less than a win here for Chelsea would be a bit of a shock. Under some proposed "improvements" to the APLT, this one should be a Par 5 at least.

Par 3 for Chelsea, who are currently on +2 in the APLT.
Chelsea win: CHE +2
Draw: CHE 0
Cardiff win: CHE -1

And at the same time in Manchester, Champions City take on another newly promoted side in Fulham. The Cottagers are an unlucky 13th in the Trad Table, largely thanks to a home win over Burnley. City meanwhile, languish in 4th in both the APLT and the Trad. The APLT is currently predicting that no fewer than four teams will win the league this season, which is exciting, but please bear in mind, it is not inherently a predictive model.

Par 3 for City here.
City win: MNC 0
Draw: MNC -2
Fulham win: MNC -3

Arsenal are still adapting to life post-Wenger, and this weekend they will take the long road North to Newcastle to take (on) the black (and white) of Rafa Benitez's United side. (Assuming Rafa hasn't quit, been sacked, or gone to prison for hitting Mike Ashley in the face with some discount trainers). The Toon army are in the relegation zone, with just a single point to their names, and will be keen to at least double that score in this 3pm kick-off.
Nonetheless, thanks to Newcastle's league position last season, this is a Par 1 game for Arsenal, who could do with making up the points.
Arsenal are on -4.

Newcastle win: ARS -5
Draw: ARS -4
Arsenal win: ARS -2

And finally, also on Saturday, Jose Mourinho's Manchester United travel to Watford, where the APLT says they need all three points to stay fashionable and, potentially, to keep the Portuguese in a job for another week. Watford, however, have a 100% record in the Premier League this season. Are they the new Leicester? Or the new Burnley? Probably not, but it will be fucking funny if they beat Man Utd, won't it? So far, they have dispatched Tottenham, Palace, Burnley and Brighton. Surely they can't add the scalp of The World's Biggest Football Club to their scalp collection? I mean, it probably smells bad enough as it is.

It's a Par 3 for Jose, so the only way is down, APLT wise.
Man Utd win: MNU -4
Draw: MNU -6
Watford win: MNU -7

And on that happy note, I bid you a happy weekend!
Fuck the Daily Mail.
Abolish FIFA

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #169 on: September 14, 2018, 08:23:47 pm »
Nessy, these just get better and better  ;D

Offline Tesco tearaway

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #170 on: September 14, 2018, 10:08:13 pm »
Internationals done. Thank fuck for that. Fuck FIFA. Seriously.
Amen to that.
Great write-up; cheers mate  :thumbup
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Offline scalatore

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #171 on: September 14, 2018, 10:11:52 pm »
Liverpool win: LFC +6 SPU -2

How good does that look?

Cheers for a thoroughly entertaining write-up!

Offline me76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #172 on: September 14, 2018, 11:41:02 pm »
Brilliant write-up Nessy, great job mate! Big weekend!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #173 on: September 15, 2018, 02:28:51 pm »
Plus 6 ..get in ! :D

Offline Redsnappa

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #174 on: September 15, 2018, 02:42:10 pm »
Plus 6 ..get in ! :D

No chart to drool over till Monday night  :'(

Offline Doc Red

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #175 on: September 15, 2018, 02:48:13 pm »
Appreciate the update and info, Nessy!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #176 on: September 15, 2018, 05:30:45 pm »
That graph is going to look fantastic.
I've just wiped the sticky residue from my bellend onto the television screen. Taste it Leo. You deserve it.
I would honestly let Wijnaldum jizz in my face right now

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #177 on: September 15, 2018, 06:05:40 pm »
You're nearly all getting it now  ;D
And people doubt the power of reverse mockers  ::)

Well played everyone. Well played.  :wave

Offline stevieheighway

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #178 on: September 15, 2018, 07:27:43 pm »
Bring it Prof mate :lickin
I'm really looking forward to the future. People can say it's going to be grim if they want but i'm a Liverpool fan...and I don't fucking believe them.

Offline stevieheighway

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #179 on: September 15, 2018, 07:32:18 pm »
APLT junkies waitin on that re-up
I'm really looking forward to the future. People can say it's going to be grim if they want but i'm a Liverpool fan...and I don't fucking believe them.

Online gazzam1963

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #180 on: September 15, 2018, 09:35:52 pm »
And our next away game gives us the chance of +8 if we see of Southampton next week

Offline Stevie93

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #181 on: September 15, 2018, 09:40:25 pm »
And our next away game gives us the chance of +8 if we see of Southampton next week

Does anyone know the highest any team has reached?!

Offline JC the Messiah

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #182 on: September 15, 2018, 09:43:03 pm »
Does anyone know the highest any team has reached?!

Well we're obviously not going to reach +8 next week. We've been lucky so far, I mean we only beat Spurs by one goal and everyone has said how inferior they were.

A draw is the best we can expect.
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Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #183 on: September 15, 2018, 11:18:36 pm »



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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #184 on: September 15, 2018, 11:40:27 pm »
It's so beautiful :'(
I've just wiped the sticky residue from my bellend onto the television screen. Taste it Leo. You deserve it.
I would honestly let Wijnaldum jizz in my face right now

Offline Deo

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #185 on: September 15, 2018, 11:58:41 pm »
Damn we're shooting staright up.

Have we ever been on +6? Or Anything more than +2 for that matter?
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Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #186 on: September 16, 2018, 12:37:15 am »
Well we're obviously not going to reach +8 next week. We've been lucky so far, I mean we only beat Spurs by one goal and everyone has said how inferior they were.

A draw is the best we can expect.

No chance of a draw. Ings will score a perfect hat-trick.

Offline The Last Known Survivor

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #187 on: September 16, 2018, 08:31:33 am »
Beautiful.... Unfortunately its all down hill from here.... Starting next week at Southampton 😢

Offline Redsnappa

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #188 on: September 16, 2018, 09:13:57 am »
What a splendid sight that is  :thumbup

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #189 on: September 16, 2018, 09:31:27 am »



I checked last year's APLT.  By week five only City and Utd were anywhere near the 90 points line (both on it), and the other 6 were on the 71 points line or beneath it.

So the big 6 have had a much stronger start this year collectively.

Offline Cohiba

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #190 on: September 16, 2018, 11:12:59 am »
Oh that is a true thing of beauty. After all the years of APLT I never thought I would see a graph as wonderful as that, thank you Prof, you have made my week.

Its just a shame we will struggle so much next week.
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Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #191 on: September 16, 2018, 11:53:12 am »
Yeah I’m glad to see you haven’t bothered extending the y-axis up to +24, because although things look good now there’s no way we’re going to be needing that this season.

Offline sms1986

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #192 on: September 16, 2018, 12:06:05 pm »
We've had the perfect start to the season so far! ;D

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #193 on: September 16, 2018, 12:07:01 pm »
The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19

This is a continuation of the last seven APLT threads which ran over the last six seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0
2015-16http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=322215
2016-17https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329366.0
2017-18https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the top six teams from last season indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.



Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below).  If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.



The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish.  Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf



This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....
Liverpool's Par 1s are oddly distributed this year. The away fixture at Everton in gameweek 29 is more or less the last opportunity to gain points.

So, in the interest of mockers, if we haven't won the APLT by gameweek 29, then the PL is gone!

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #194 on: September 16, 2018, 12:10:11 pm »
Yeah all well and good but we all know that points don't count at this time of the season. Especially if you're 6 up on last seasons points that didn't count then either.
All the badge kissing in the world don't make up for the fact that they are, frankly, not Liverpool Football Club. It's not their fault. Its just how it is.

Offline Hymer Red

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #195 on: September 16, 2018, 02:11:36 pm »
+6 and 5 games in but we are not playing well and we were lucky not to have VAR for the obvious pelanty for the spurs at the end (snigger) but you know what this means? Listen to the wise old owl

"There is no point trying to analyse dreams"

Southampton will know our players and our systems they will know all about their ex players weaknesses and Ingsy will fill em in on the rest its gonna be a tough ask but we might just scrape a draw if we are lucky again.
This Klopp fella, hes not bad is he?

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #196 on: September 16, 2018, 02:14:42 pm »
Liverpool's Par 1s are oddly distributed this year. The away fixture at Everton in gameweek 29 is more or less the last opportunity to gain points.

So, in the interest of mockers, if we haven't won the APLT by gameweek 29, then the PL is gone!

Good observation, except that we have 1 more in Newcastle A (penultimate game). We're playing most of the tough fixtures early in the season and post Man City A and specifically after Man United A, we have fixtures where we're most likely expected to win. That means it's a challenge of raking up a lot of points in the first half of the season and getting through that period (well) ahead.

Note other teams and Chelsea especially. Beyond Man City A in our fixture list, we have only 4 par 1s and two of them are West Ham and Newcastle. From that same period, Man United have 5, Chelsea have 7 (includes trips to Etihad, Anfield and Old Trafford), Man City have 6 (albeit easier ones, their harder games in that period are at home), and Spurs have 5 (includes trips to the Bridge, Anfield and Eithad).

Beyond Man United A from our fixture list, we have 2 par 1 fixtures. From that same period, Man United have 3, Chelsea have 4, Man City have 4 and Spurs have 4.

In short, and in the interest of mockers, it's a tall order for us!  ;D

Offline No666

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #197 on: September 16, 2018, 02:44:42 pm »
Because Southampton isn't coloured red, the team is going to relax mentally and be vulnerable to an upset, I reckon.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #198 on: September 16, 2018, 10:25:31 pm »
Word of warning about the law of mockers... If you say you're trying to apply reverse mockers, it reverses the effect of the reverse and applies orthodox mockers!

It's also dangerous to upset the mockers universe by referring to it too much... I'm going to try to curb my own level of discussion about mockers and just accept that the damage is probably already done and we'll drop like a stone from here.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #199 on: September 16, 2018, 10:45:09 pm »
Word of warning about the law of mockers... If you say you're trying to apply reverse mockers, it reverses the effect of the reverse and applies orthodox mockers!

It's also dangerous to upset the mockers universe by referring to it too much... I'm going to try to curb my own level of discussion about mockers and just accept that the damage is probably already done and we'll drop like a stone from here.

Except when I do it. Reverse mockers has always worked when I did it. But the trick is to pick and choose when.
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