Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[Banquo's Ghost]

He understands economics, which, imo, is all that really matters if you're discussing the Russian economy.

Make no mistake, he didn't get selected as an advisor on economic policy because he was a "wingnut", no matter how comforting that idea is.

Yes, he did - largely because Putin's advisors are hand selected to ensure he gets the advice he wants. Which is precisely why, when he asked them if annexing Crimea would bring difficult consequences, the yes-men told him  everything would be OK.

Putin's entire economic policy has been built on commodity prices and the belief that having huge foreign currency reserves would bail him out of his aggressive 'Russia-first' policies to contain the nationalist pressures. Fedorovsky is a wing nut because his economic credentials lead him to insane solutions which along with the president's unwillingness to diversify the economy using the oil boom revenues, means Russia is on a more dangerous financial precipice than even 1985, but this time without the West to bail them out. Sadly, the Russian people are the ones about to find out the real price of this incompetence.

Saying Fedorovsky knows about economics is like saying Zhirinovsky knows about fashion.

[Red Beret]

Saying Fedorovsky knows about economics is like saying Zhirinovsky knows about fashion.

Or that Hodgson knows about football?

[Trada]

The BBC were just saying that the Russian government is having to start bailing out its banks.

[viteslesrouges]

The BBC were just saying that the Russian government is having to start bailing out its banks.

I blame Gordon Brown and Ed Balls

[Red Beret]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2014/dec/24/russia-on-the-verge-of-junk-rating-over-weak-economy-business-live

Russia could see its credit status reduced to junk for the first time in more than a decade, after the Standard & Poor’s rating agency said it was considering a cut.

There is at least a 5o% chance that Russia will be lowered to junk status within 90 days, S&P has said.

    We are reviewing our assessment of Russia’s monetary flexibility and the impact of the weakening economy on its financial system.

Following the announcement, the rouble fell in early trade this morning, losing 0.7% against the dollar to 54.88.

Russia has been put on the S&P’s “creditwatch” list because of “the rapid deterioration of Russia’s monetary flexibility”.

Last week the Russian central bank yanked up interest rates to a 17.5% in a desperate bid to defend the rouble, a move that poses serious risks to an economy falling into recession.

S&P currently rates Russia as BBB-, its lowest grade for credit worthiness, although rival agencies Fitch and Moody’s rank the country a little higher.

Aside from that we are not expecting big news on European financial markets.

The London Stock Exchange closes early at 12.30; Paris and Madrid close around 2pm local time (1pm GMT) and Frankfurt is closed. Hat tip to CMC Markets for this round-up.

New York is also on Christmas time and will close at 1pm local time. With so many traders taking a break from their Bloomberg screens, trading is likely to be thin.

[BazC]

I like to hear both sides and usually believe neither. I find the truth often lies somewhere in the middle.

So on that dialectic note.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/VT085isnyB0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/VT085isnyB0</a>

That video is only a part of this longer version but it ties in with the recent conversation in this thread which is why I posted it separately.

In the full interview Fyodorov explains what he believes the US strategy is in the region and goes on to predict World War III within the next year or so.

Full video:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/x0zRD-Ulv2s" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/x0zRD-Ulv2s</a>

EDIT: They're two separate interviews actually, taken six months apart.

The rebels in Eastern Ukraine aren't a popular reaction to the West's influence in Ukraine. They're Russia's reaction to the West's influence on Ukraine. Ukraine is increasingly becoming more aligned with Europe, which is something their own citizens want and have voted for. There were mass protests a year ago when Yanokovich broke off agreements with Europe (after Russia's influence), and there was a lot of escalation after that point. Russia don't want Ukraine to be aligned with Europe or NATO (understandable from their perspective I guess), but the fighting in Eastern Ukraine is not "popular" in the sense that it's not popular Ukrainian opinion to be part of Russia or even be aligned with it over Europe.

[B0151?]

Yes, he did - largely because Putin's advisors are hand selected to ensure he gets the advice he wants. Which is precisely why, when he asked them if annexing Crimea would bring difficult consequences, the yes-men told him  everything would be OK.

Putin's entire economic policy has been built on commodity prices and the belief that having huge foreign currency reserves would bail him out of his aggressive 'Russia-first' policies to contain the nationalist pressures. Fedorovsky is a wing nut because his economic credentials lead him to insane solutions which along with the president's unwillingness to diversify the economy using the oil boom revenues, means Russia is on a more dangerous financial precipice than even 1985, but this time without the West to bail them out. Sadly, the Russian people are the ones about to find out the real price of this incompetence.

Saying Fedorovsky knows about economics is like saying Zhirinovsky knows about fashion.

That is the sad thing. I've seen some people react with glee to this. Putin's grip is iron-tight, it's the people that will suffer, not him.

[Conocinico]

Yes, he did - largely because Putin's advisors are hand selected to ensure he gets the advice he wants. Which is precisely why, when he asked them if annexing Crimea would bring difficult consequences, the yes-men told him  everything would be OK.

Putin's entire economic policy has been built on commodity prices and the belief that having huge foreign currency reserves would bail him out of his aggressive 'Russia-first' policies to contain the nationalist pressures. Fedorovsky is a wing nut because his economic credentials lead him to insane solutions which along with the president's unwillingness to diversify the economy using the oil boom revenues, means Russia is on a more dangerous financial precipice than even 1985, but this time without the West to bail them out. Sadly, the Russian people are the ones about to find out the real price of this incompetence.

Saying Fedorovsky knows about economics is like saying Zhirinovsky knows about fashion.

Why should I hold your opinion above any of the other fucking million blowhards I come across?

[Twelfth Man]

Why should I hold your opinion above any of the other fucking million blowhards I come across?

The earth goes around the Sun? BTW the guy gave a perfectly reasonable response. Abuse is not an answer.

[BUSHMILLS]

Why should I hold your opinion above any of the other fucking million blowhards I come across?

If you're not interested in others' opinions, why come on to a discussion forum?

[Maggie May]

Why should I hold your opinion above any of the other fucking million blowhards I come across?

Oi.  Wind yer neck in fella,  No need for that type of caper.  Meme is sound and a well respected poster,

[Conocinico]

I think from the previous three responses I may have said something that was offensive. That wasn't my intention so I apologise.

[ShayGuevara]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a03q4tguUcA#t=71

Putin holds a press conference with journalists from all around the world to ask him questions. To sum it up, he blames the west for the economic crisis that the country is now suffering through. To sum it up, he blames the west for the economic crisis that the country is now suffering through. Conclusion: Don’t mess with the western powers, especially the U.S. Dollar? Especially when we have an agenda to follow-through.

Tensions flying between Russia and the west.

Any possibility it could be because of this:

Earlier this year, Vice President Joe Biden paid a 2 day visit to Ukraine to reveal the U.S. Crisis Support Package for Ukraine. Sure enough, this package included initiating hydraulic fracturing. For those unaware, hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” is drilling into the earth’s crust to extract natural gases, originally invented by Stanolind Oil and Gas Corporation.

Additionally, Americans are now allowed onto the Ukraine Business Council Board of directors.

So why is this all relevant?

Hunter Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden, has recently been appointed to the board of directors at Burisma Holdings, the largest private gas producer in Ukraine. Obviously, the goal in this case is to expand the market.

“The company’s strategy is aimed at the strongest concentration of professional staff and the introduction of best corporate practices, and we’re delighted that Mr. Biden is joining us to help us achieve these goals,” Alan Apter, Burisma Holdings’ chairman of the board of directors said in a statement.

But meanwhile, the Ukraine is facing conflict with Russia over the Crimean peninsula. After Ukraine elected a new president and formed a separate government (recognized by the U.S. and condemned by Russia) tensions have flared. Can you guess what the waters around the peninsula are rich with? Natural resources potentially worth trillions of dollars. No surprise there, huh?

So what do we have here? We have the U.S. recognizing the non-separatist government attempting to gain control of Crimea and Russia recognizing the Separatists. Meanwhile, Americans are being appointed in the Ukrainian board and the Vice Presidents son gets put on the board of directors of the largest private gas producer in the Ukraine. The Crimean peninsula is rich with resources that they absolutely want, but it’s not quite accessible because of the Russian stronghold on it. And now, we have another great opportunity to point fingers without any real proof.

Not to mention, we have the west building up military-power near the Russian border, preparing for yet another war.

[Red Beret]

Yeah, because the West is totally about to invade Russia, a nuclear power.

All that article points to is an attempt to use the distasteful fracking as a means to give Ukraine resource independence from Russia.  And yes, the US stand to make millions from it (regardless of the inevitable pollution to Ukraine's water table).  Russia wont like a) the Ukraine not being dependent on Russian resources, and b) the Americans making a shit load of money from it all.

[viteslesrouges]

Yeah, because the West is totally about to invade Russia, a nuclear power.

All that article points to is an attempt to use the distasteful fracking as a means to give Ukraine resource independence from Russia.  And yes, the US stand to make millions from it (regardless of the inevitable pollution to Ukraine's water table).  Russia wont like a) the Ukraine not being dependent on Russian resources, and b) the Americans making a shit load of money from it all.

I mentioned quotes this time last year that the US was looking to frack the fuck out of Ukraine.

Ukraine will be completely fracked by the US, damaging land and infrastructure, chasing the mighty dollar. NATO is likely to be dragged into this, as the EU has, by the newest, poorest members from the Baltics who certainly have an agenda against Russia. Talk about tails wagging dogs.

I can't see the US considering any kind of military action directly against Russia, Fowler forbid, but they'll try the economic route for victory as proved successful to end the (last) Cold War.

[Red Beret]

I recall the US pulling the economic war against Japan once.  It resulted in Pearl Harbour.  And Putin is no Gorbachev.  He's a nutcase in charge of a nuclear power and his conventional military is already struggling just on the Ukrainian border.  I very much doubt NATO or the US intend to play "poke the bear" in such a carefree manner as you imply.

[TepidT2O]

Leader of the opposition has been arrested after breaking his house arrest sentence to go to a protest.

House arrest?  Leader of the opposition?  Democratic society my foot.

[El_Pistolero]

I recall the US pulling the economic war against Japan once.  It resulted in Pearl Harbour.  And Putin is no Gorbachev.  He's a nutcase in charge of a nuclear power and his conventional military is already struggling just on the Ukrainian border.  I very much doubt NATO or the US intend to play "poke the bear" in such a carefree manner as you imply.

The only time it's been really been thought the Russian army interfered directly the UA was pushed from large swathes of territory all the back to a fortified Mariupol, giving the rebels their current borders. I wouldn't quite say they struggled.

I also wouldn't quite call him a nutcase, he may well be pushing things to the limit at great expense (look at the rouble atm) but he's not doing it cos he's loco.

I would agree that he places Russia a few spots higher in the great powers list than she really is though. 

[jerseyhoya]

Leader of the opposition has been arrested after breaking his house arrest sentence to go to a protest.

House arrest?  Leader of the opposition?  Democratic society my foot.

His brother got 3.5 years in prison. Putin basically holding family members of potential challengers to his power hostage now.

[JMc1984]

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fbi-s-2001-anthrax-attack-probe-was-seriously-flawed/

Bush's government has used threats, intimidation, and murder to bully the opposition also. And at least Putin was elected legitimately, not selected by his daddy's supreme court appointees

[TepidT2O]

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fbi-s-2001-anthrax-attack-probe-was-seriously-flawed/

Bush's government has used threats, intimidation, and murder to bully the opposition also. And at least Putin was elected legitimately, not selected by his daddy's supreme court appointees

You are using the idea that the FBIs tests for anthrax weren't very accurate as evidence that the U.S. is as bad as Putin.

Sorry, but this is unutterable tosh.

[God's Left Peg]

Oliver Stone on Ukraine Protests: "The Truth Is Not Being Aired in the West"

Oliver Stone has harsh words for the CIA's Ukraine policy.
The Savages director wrote on Facebook on Tuesday that the Central Intelligence Agency contributed to the ouster of former president Viktor Yanukovych, whom Stone recently interviewed for the documentary he's directing about Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Read more Shailene Woodley in Talks to Star in Oliver Stone's Snowden Film (Exclusive)
"[Yanukovych] was the legitimate President of Ukraine, until he suddenly wasn't on Feb. 22 of this year," wrote Stone, who decided to make the documentary after beginning work on a film about NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden. Stone's film about Snowden, who has been granted a three-year residency permit by Russia, is based on a novel by Anatoly Kucherena, Snowden's Russian lawyer.
Stone believes the CIA contributed to violence at February protests in Ukraine that left more than 100 dead. "It seems clear that the so-called 'shooters' who killed 14 police men, wounded some 85, and killed 45 protesting civilians, were outside third-party agitators," he wrote.
"Many witnesses, including Yanukovych and police officials, believe these foreign elements were introduced by pro-Western factions — with CIA fingerprints on it," Stone continued.
See more THR's Todd McCarthy Ranks Oliver Stone's Movies
Stone says that the truth about Ukraine hasn't been told by the Western media.
"A dirty story through and through, but in the tragic aftermath of this coup, the West has maintained the dominant narrative of 'Russia in Crimea,' whereas the true narrative is 'USA in Ukraine,' " Stone wrote. "The truth is not being aired in the West."
Email: Ryan.Gajewski@pgmedia.org
Twitter: @_RyanGajewski

https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/oliver-stone-ukraine-protests-truth-not-being-aired-010743771.html

[potatomato33]

Oliver Stone on Ukraine Protests: "The Truth Is Not Being Aired in the West"

And the KGB has just been sitting around twiddling their thumbs in Ukraine? There is a massive difference between intelligence agencies going about their business vs sending entire brigades. Just saying.

[TepidT2O]

And the KGB has just been sitting around twiddling their thumbs in Ukraine? There is a massive difference between intelligence agencies going about their business vs sending entire brigades. Just saying.

Like attempting to kill the president of the Ukraine.  He was very fortunate to survive

[jerseyhoya]

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fbi-s-2001-anthrax-attack-probe-was-seriously-flawed/

Bush's government has used threats, intimidation, and murder to bully the opposition also. And at least Putin was elected legitimately, not selected by his daddy's supreme court appointees

This is legitimately insane from start to finish.

[JMc1984]

This is legitimately insane from start to finish.

Bit like anyone who cast votes for your man bush then

[potatomato33]

Like attempting to kill the president of the Ukraine.  He was very fortunate to survive

As opposed to the killing of thousands of Ukrainian citizens that's happening right now?

[Red Beret]

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fbi-s-2001-anthrax-attack-probe-was-seriously-flawed/

Bush's government has used threats, intimidation, and murder to bully the opposition also. And at least Putin was elected legitimately, not selected by his daddy's supreme court appointees

How laughable.  As if what happened in the US 15 odd years ago somehow legitimises Putin's actions?

Yeah, the US is guilty of all sorts of clandestine crap - especially in South America - but let's not use the past to try and justify the present okay?  Wrong is wrong, whichever way you look at it and somebody else robbing a store doesn't make it okay for me to rob a store.

[TepidT2O]

As opposed to the killing of thousands of Ukrainian citizens that's happening right now?

Which is not the fault of the US.  They may be meddling, but there would be deaths none the less.

[viteslesrouges]

Which is not the fault of the US.  They may be meddling, but there would be deaths none the less.

Similar to the deaths of the Marsh Arabs would have still occurred in Iraq regardless of the encouragement given by the USA to revolt against Saddam after the 1st Gulf War.

Great logic.

[potatomato33]

Which is not the fault of the US.  They may be meddling, but there would be deaths none the less.

If Russia didn't meddle in Crimea, the separatists would be crushed easily. When was the last time an uprising succeed without outside interference?

[Red Beret]

If Russia didn't meddle in Crimea, the separatists would be crushed easily. When was the last time an uprising succeed without outside interference?

Cuba?
Romania?
Tunisia?

[potatomato33]

Cuba?
Romania?
Tunisia?

You got me, I should have said separatist movement. But out of that list, I'd say only Cuba is a standalone success in the true revolutionary sense. Romania was part of the general collapse of the Soviet Bloc and Tunisia part of the Arab Spring. Those two had the support of the respective populations of the countries rather than just a region of it. The last I can recall is the whole East Timor debacle when the UN finally got involved. I'm keeping a close eye on Syria and the whole Kurdistan issue as well.

[Yorkykopite]

You got me, I should have said separatist movement.

Slovakia.

[Anywhichwayicant]

If Russia didn't meddle in Crimea, the separatists would be crushed easily. When was the last time an uprising succeed without outside interference?

The US started the whole thing in Crimea

[Yorkykopite]

The US started the whole thing in Crimea

They started the Ebola thing as well.

[potatomato33]

The US started the whole thing in Crimea

Elaborate?

[Red Crown]

Elaborate?

To put the following into context you have to understand that Russia would/will never tolerate the Crimean peninsula as being outside of their control/influence, because that is where its Black Sea Fleet is deployed out of.

The pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovych started facing legitimate internal pressure and backlash from the citizenry over his distancing from the EU and turning to Russia.  His conflict resolution skills could be best described as 'incendiary' which led to a rising of nationalistic tension with multiple forces aligned against him the hard right (Ukrainian neo-nazi fascists) and the pro-EU progressives.  This led to an EU and US quasi coup; with the EU using the normal soft power things of mediating and the US actually meeting with opposition leaders and beginning the process of king making in the Ukraine while a current incumbent was still in power by meeting with opposition leaders and effectively selecting who they would appoint as the next president of the Ukraine (which was rather embarrassingly leaked by the Russian security services when they leaked the phone calls from the US State Dept and the US ambassador, the famous 'fuck the EU' tape).

Once Yanukovych realised that the gig was up, he fled overnight to Russia and his corruption and ineptitude made for a great propaganda piece by those that succeeded him.

The result of this was a wild swing to power for the radical right in Ukraine which was ultra nationalist.

This spooked Putin (or maybe it didn't maybe he was always going to do this), and used the pretext that the Crimean population was something like 80% ethnic Russian and asked for assistance which led him to annex Crimea.  And then the ethnic Russians in the Ukraine east and south started acting up as well (or were induced to do so by Russia) which led to the conflict spilling over.

So the argument goes; if the US (and to a lesser extent the EU) had kept their noses out of Ukraine in the first place then none of this wouldn't have happened.

I'm not sure if I agree, I think it is more accurate to say that there is no way on this planet that Russia would ever tolerate Crimea to be under anyone else's control and this was just one trigger of a vast possible of many that would have induced Russia to act in the way it did.

[exiledintheUSA]

Russia has banned all Transexuals and Transgendered people from driving, fucktards.

[Red Beret]

Russia has banned all Transexuals and Transgendered people from driving, fucktards.

Da fuq?  How can you do that?  Why would you even bother??

That's a blatant attack on civil liberties.  What is even the point?

EDIT: Oh I think I get it.  Putin can't attack the people he wants to, ie the West, so he picks on a soft target in his own country that he knows not many people will protest about, in Russia at least.