Author Topic: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0  (Read 6916 times)

Offline Paul Tomkins

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Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« on: November 21, 2004, 01:47:46 pm »
What is it with November, and poor form at Liverpool Football Club? A home reverse to Birmingham (the first of the season in the league) and now a rather disappointing away defeat at ever-improving Boro.

A check of the fixture list confirms it is the worst four weeks possible for Milan Baros to join Djibril Cisse on the sidelines. An away trip to high-flying Boro (a fruitless hunting ground), and away trips to over-achieving Everton and Aston Villa. In between, hosting two perennial rivals, Arsenal and Newcastle, at Anfield. All the while concluding the tightly-run Champions League group phase; where the lack of a world-class striker could end up costing us millions (and therefore leaving less money to buy another).

The only solace we can take from losing Gerrard and Baros to enforced early-to-mid-season breaks is that they were both very busy over the summer, and Cisse's injury (and Owen's departure) meant Baros had to start every subsequent game. This way, both players have a natural chance to recharge their batteries. They are possibly the only two players (ignoring defenders, who don't get rotated) who would never have been rested by Rafa in his rotation policy, given Baros' current form (and our lack of strikers) and Gerrard's status as club captain and inspiration.

The second half of the season should, in theory, see us flourish while Everton (with their paper-thin squad) and others run out of steam. The trouble could be that there's too much ground to make up. Rafa's luck - in being without three strikers (including losing Owen when he'd planned to have him), Gerrard to injury and a litany of poor decisions from officials - surely has to turn soon. There have been five or six penalties we've not been awarded this season, and when we finally get two in one match, it should actually have been three.

I had a little sympathy for Gerard Houllier last season, and the injuries to key personnel. But I also felt that after five years in charge (and over £100m spent), he should have assembled some serious depth to his squad - clearly he hadn't; Benitez had barely five weeks this summer in which to buy players - and when Owen left, he had no time to secure a replacement. After five weeks, he couldn't even have fully known who needed replacing. If in two or three years' time Benitez hasn't brought in better reserves, then he can be criticized. But he is still working with 95% of Houllier's masterplan.

Maybe we need to start making our own luck, but the officials aren't helping. Zenden had a reversal of fortune from the cup game; but this was the game that we needed to win - as evinced by the sides both teams put out at Anfield. He was possibly onside yesterday, but it was tight - less clearly onside than Luis Garcia was at the Reebok, when his great effort was chalked off. The overriding fact is that had Luis Garcia's goal made it 1-1, the game would have taken a different course, and due to cause-and-effect, Zenden's chance would not have arisen.

Yet again Luis Garcia was let down by the officials - that's now two legitimate league goals wrongly chalked off, not to mention the goal-bound shot Muzzy Izzet stopped with his hand. In this instance the linesman couldn't clearly see who the final touch came off - and so missed that it was Downing of Boro who laid the Spaniard in on goal. But that doesn't make it any more easy to stomach. Luis Garcia's finish was superb, but he also keeps missing chances; as I keep repeating, though, he makes things happen. Had the linesman's decisions not been so incorrect this season, he'd have five league goals in ten games: a great return from a mix of wide midfield or behind the main striker.

Kewell's confidence in front of goal, meanwhile, is obviously going to be low until he gets any kind of goal, but at least he was also getting on the end of chances. The header which Mark Schwarzer somehow saved was hard to fault; a player banging in goals would perhaps aim a little more for the corners, but when low on form you tend to look to hit the target with as much power in an effort on goal as possible. Kewell's header was hard and low, and on another day would have gone in.

I commented before the match that I felt we'd create chances with that side (we did - ten shots on target to Boro's six), but may struggle to put them away. That's where we miss someone like Baros, who has that killer instinct. Luis Garcia and Harry Kewell are the kind of players who will score goals throughout their career, but can never be relied upon, in the way you can with the best strikers around.

With Gerrard returning, and so many creative midfielders in the side, it is surely time to throw Neil Mellor in. The jury is rightly still out on him, to my mind, as he's yet to prove much in first-team football. But he's a finisher, pure and simple, and if you can supply him with chances he has the right instincts to convert them - providing he can handle the pressure that comes with first-team football. By pulling Luis Garcia or Kewell back, that's one more player to supply the ammunition.

With Gerrard's return came a startling revelation, published in the Independent this Saturday:

"Liverpool coped without their captain because Liverpool always do. In one of the great statistical wonders of the age, they win more matches without him than with him and this season the pattern has been repeated. Seven points from five [now six, although Gerrard only entered play when we were 1-0 down] games with Gerrard, 13 from seven without him. There seems to be no footballing explanation for it."

On top of this, consider Man City last season. Anelka was scoring all their goals, but they were losing. Anelka's injury resulted in City finally winning some games.

Then there was Wayne Rooney and Everton. As soon as he left, they have reverted to a 'team' of equally-average parts (rather than one superstar overshadowing the whole place), and suddenly they are winning 1-0 every week. The power of the 'team' over the 'star' ? (It'll be interesting to see how they fare once they start spending the Rooney transfer fee, and if their unity is unsettled - especially if they make one or two big signings on higher wages).

So my point is this - do teams 'pull together' more in the absence of their best player, when that player is the clear 'superstar' in the squad? Do we leave too much up to Steven Gerrard when he plays for us? It was certainly the case last season, when players seemed to abdicate responsibility and stand around waiting for him to do something.

I'm sure there's something in it; but I'm also sure I'd want Gerrard in my team (and Anelka, for that matter, too - as goalscorers, more often than not, win games). It's a question of gelling more talented players into a team pattern. I doubt very much that Arsenal would be the same team without Thierry Henry, just as they're struggling without their rock at the back, Sol Campbell (who, surprise surprise, is back in training ahead of next week's game - their best defender returning at a time when, with our best strikers out, we could use Pascal Cygan's generosity).

It's also worth noting that although Rooney may have been Everton's best player, he never scored many goals for them. So they never had to cope with replacing a 20-30 goals-a-season man.

To challenge at the top, over the course of a season, pure quality tells in the end - but only when mixed with effort and unity. What Henry has at Arsenal is a team of players (and manager) who believe in him, and who work equally as hard as he does. Players like Henry, just as with John Barnes at Liverpool, flourish only in settings where they are both valued and relied upon: loved, but also demanded and expected to make the difference; given the responsibility to be the main man, but also the backing. In other settings, you feel these players have been merely demanded to produce, without the backing and support.

Similarly, Chelsea's season only really clicked into gear once Damien Duff and Arjen Robben entered the side. You can be a very good side with eleven hard-working journeymen, but never a great side over a long-season; you may win a cup from five or six games (as Greece did), but you will never secure a trophy that requires a larger amount of games to win.

Rafa is certainly someone who believes in the team ethic over individuality, but of course individuals are the players who make the clever passes, and score the goals. A team may create a goal, but a sole individual scores it - and that's why Baros had been so handy as, in the final third, he makes it his duty to score the goals.

Valencia may not have been a team of superstars, but that doesn't mean they weren't a team of super players.

We have some great players, too. It's just getting them all on the pitch at the same time. (And finding some super officials).

© Paul Tomkins 2004


« Last Edit: November 21, 2004, 01:59:29 pm by Paul Tomkins »

Offline Armin

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2004, 02:05:10 pm »
Good article.

Unfortunately all the signs are that Everton will strengthen in January - meaning that they should be in a decent position to consolidate what they have.  Otherwise I'd agree with you that their paper thin squad might wilt as the season goes on.

I'm never sure whether as supporters we simply remember all the decisions that don't go our way but it seems like we've been consistently losing points to bad decsions for the last 18 months?  ??? I know we've played some crap footy in that time but even so???



Well, I don't know what it is, but there's definitely something going on upstairs

Offline Paul Tomkins

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2004, 02:15:48 pm »
Unfortunately all the signs are that Everton will strengthen in January - meaning that they should be in a decent position to consolidate what they have.  Otherwise I'd agree with you that their paper thin squad might wilt as the season goes on.


As I also said, it could wreck stability, though (see Apsrilla to Newcastle). Also, they may strengthen in certain positions, but it could be the other positions where injuries and tiredness occur.

If they maintain this form until May, I'll be stunned, but fair play to them.


I'm never sure whether as supporters we simply remember all the decisions that don't go our way but it seems like we've been consistently losing points to bad decsions for the last 18 months?  ??? I know we've played some crap footy in that time but even so???


I think I'm usually able to view decisions with objectivity (if not initially, certainly after time to think about it).

This season has seen a ridiculous amount of decisions not go our way; the only one that did was the Zenden goal in the Meaningless Cup. I've never known a season like it - usually you also get plenty to (roughly) balance it out, but I've not seen too many favourable ones - maybe one or two borderline ones.

I'd even forgotten about the Graz player who wasn't sent off for two yellows. Soft free-kicks have cost us goals, and the amount of penalties we've been denied is farcical.

Offline coltmanaman

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2004, 02:27:57 pm »
I really don't like blaming officials decisions - seems like a poor excuse an evertonian or manc would come up with BUT we have been unlucky with quite a few decisions so far this season.

I do believe we could be in for a very rocky patch over the next 6 weeks & as you pointed out quite rightly Paul - the loss of champions league money would be a huge set back. 

Qualification for the next stage in the champions Legaue & at least 7 points out of 12 in our next 4 Premeirship games would do for me (as long as we don't lose to the bitters too)

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2004, 02:28:42 pm »

As I also said, it could wreck stability, though (see Apsrilla to Newcastle). Also, they may strengthen in certain positions, but it could be the other positions where injuries and tiredness occur.

If they maintain this form until May, I'll be stunned, but fair play to them.



I think I'm usually able to view decisions with objectivity (if not initially, certainly after time to think about it).

This season has seen a ridiculous amount of decisions not go our way; the only one that did was the Zenden goal in the Meaningless Cup. I've never known a season like it - usually you also get plenty to (roughly) balance it out, but I've not seen too many favourable ones - maybe one or two borderline ones.

I'd even forgotten about the Graz player who wasn't sent off for two yellows. Soft free-kicks have cost us goals, and the amount of penalties we've been denied is farcical.

it's Karmic law and payback for the Roma game when the ref changed his mind from a penalty to a corner.  ;D

another enjoyable article Paul
Yep.

Offline Paul Tomkins

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2004, 03:11:17 pm »
it's Karmic law and payback for the Roma game when the ref changed his mind from a penalty to a corner.  ;D

 ;D

We could use that ref at the moment!

Offline Holiara

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2004, 04:04:10 pm »
Nice work Paul! As always a pleasure to read, though I wish the situation might enable you to write happier articles  :(

A check of the fixture list confirms it is the worst four weeks possible for Milan Baros to join Djibril Cisse on the sidelines….


I couldn’t agree more. Someone somewhere is using Vodoo puppets  :evil

Still: Everton isn’t scoring too many goals (16), but have the third best defense as per today. If we manage to tighten up our defense we might at least draw with them. Besides, they are better away. The derby thingy will hopefully spike our site to excel  Arsenal goes through a time of crisis and if Campbell isn’t totally fit yet and Reyes doesn’t discover his form back against us, we might even win. Hey Anfield still is a fortress, Birmingham was only a glitch. Villa. I’m not sure about them though. They are a lot better at home than away and IMO this will be rather difficult to win. Portsmouth have a striker crisis too, so we might be even there. The rest of our team is a lot better and we should beat them. Our disadvantage is the number of games we have to play with not enough players to rotate properly.

see us flourish while Everton (with their paper-thin squad)

As I also said, it could wreck stability, though (see Apsrilla to Newcastle). Also, they may strengthen in certain positions, but it could be the other positions where injuries and tiredness occur.

It might happen, but we can’t be sure. We can’t rely on the others to fail.

With Gerrard returning, and so many creative midfielders in the side, it is surely time to throw Neil Mellor in. The jury is rightly still out on him, to my mind, as he's yet to prove much in first-team football. But he's a finisher, pure and simple, and if you can supply him with chances he has the right instincts to convert them - providing he can handle the pressure that comes with first-team football. By pulling Luis Garcia or Kewell back, that's one more player to supply the ammunition.

Agreed. Mellor is the closest to a goal getter we have right now and his holding play isn’t too bad either. Besides, he is physically more impressive than Garcia and Kewell – which of course doesn’t have to do with quality but with imposing himself on his opponent more. Physically he is more like Baros, while Pongo is closer to Djib. Biscan was great against Depor and might deserve a chance too, especially with Stevie not fit to play a whole game.



Offline Alf

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2004, 04:21:38 pm »
Good article as always Paul. I agree its time to throw Neil Mellor in at the deep end. IMO how well we do in the Champions League this season & whether we qualify for it next season will have a bearing on how many more great players we can sign in January and at the end of the season.

Offline hooded claw

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2004, 06:04:13 pm »
I needed that.
You texted me yesterday you were optimistic about the balance of the team, the defensiveness we'd need but some flair too. Good point- then we lose (as I always felt we would) and having seen the highlights I fail to see how Luis' goal wasn't allowed. It is a worrying pattern we're seeing, but the reason I feel better than I did this morning -when I felt so dispirited about this team at the moment- is the balance.  Bit of a PT trademark that  :D.
It's interesting to see that the press are giving us an easier time than I expected- almost every report I've seen today has started off with 'injury-ravaged Liverpool', which at least buys Rafa some time. There could be an insurmountable gap (does one surmount gaps or bridge them, but you take the point) by the time we are strong again- the basic demand , for financial and marketability to new signings, obviously has to be CL qualification. I can't see Everton, Boro (with their ageing strikers) or Bolton staying the distance (though it would be perversely refreshing if they did, in today's money-driven race) so we could and should make it. Rafa has drawn some terrible cards so early in his reign, and the testing period is to come. We need our luck to turn.

Offline Dermot

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2004, 07:39:21 pm »
Good Post as always Paul :thumbup
The cheek of that mon, deserves a shlap

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2004, 08:33:04 pm »
" less clearly onside than Luis Garcia was at the Reebok, when his great effort was chalked off."

I´m afraid Paul Tomkins wants to visit Specsavers. Garcia was definitely offside, whilst Zendan made a great run and was clearly onside when the ball was played.  

Offline Paul Tomkins

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2004, 09:06:32 pm »
I´m afraid Paul Tomkins wants to visit Specsavers. Garcia was definitely offside, whilst Zendan made a great run and was clearly onside when the ball was played.  


I'm afraid you need to learn the rules of the game, my un-learned friend - assuming you are talking about Luis Garcia's goal yesterday. If an opponent makes the pass you can't be offside...

 

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2004, 11:53:50 pm »
Great piece Paul
I think Rafa - probably aginst Monaco - will decide that a 4-5-1 option is essential
The goals HAVE to come from midfield now.
We've had some bloody bad luck with injuries and decisions.
I think we'll get fourth, maybe higher. But I wouldn't rule out a semi-final, maybe final in the CL.
You can't underestimate how a team can "gel" when the odds are stacked against them.
Even after the defeat against Boro - I still believe.

Offline hooded claw

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2004, 12:06:09 am »

I'm afraid you need to learn the rules of the game, my un-learned friend - assuming you are talking about Luis Garcia's goal yesterday. If an opponent makes the pass you can't be offside...

 

OOOOoooooooooooooooooooh get her and her matching shoes!!!!
 ;D ;D :wave


Offline Paul Tomkins

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2004, 11:04:31 am »
I think we'll get fourth, maybe higher. But I wouldn't rule out a semi-final, maybe final in the CL.

With a full strength team, I'd say yes, as outsiders and underdogs that's a possibility - in a strange way, we could do better in Europe than at home this season. But we'd need Baros back, and hopefully we won't miss him tomorrow, otherwise we could risk going out...

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2004, 11:05:31 am »
Watched the game and felt we were very, very poor. Josemi was rightly taken off and I suspect Benitez will stick with Finnan for the next few games. Equally, bushing our fullbacks up as wingers will not work, as we become too defensive and have little chance to break out. Alonso had his worse game in a red shirt, but this is understandable if, every time he looks up, he can't spot a free player (I largely blame Garcia for this, who was anonymous on Saturday) and ends up caught in possession. Personally I felt it was less the introductio of Gerrard and more the introduction of pongolle and the removal of josemi that saw us improve. Kewell, at least, looked more up for it and was more involved. Feel that criticism of him will continue apace for a quite a while, until he does something spectacular again, thats the way fo the media. For Monaco, I would start as follows

Kirkland
Finnan Hyppia Carragher Traore
Garcia Alonso gerrard Riise
Pongolle Kewell
Beatings will continue until morale improves...

Offline Paul Tomkins

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2004, 07:23:12 pm »
Kirkland
Finnan Hyppia Carragher Traore
Garcia Alonso gerrard Riise
Pongolle Kewell


I find that hard to argue with - not sure if this is a game for Mellor, who I'd keep for the Arsenal match. Pongolle's pace can help us push teams back. He might feel more comfortable against French opposition, as he's used to that style of play.

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2004, 09:46:23 pm »
Many thanks for yet another thoughtful analysis. I can think of nowhere else where one can read such intelligent, informed comments. All of your postings are a pleasure to read.

Offline Paul Tomkins

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2004, 09:49:43 pm »
Many thanks for yet another thoughtful analysis. I can think of nowhere else where one can read such intelligent, informed comments. All of your postings are a pleasure to read.


Many many thanks. It's always nice to know when  people appreciate what I post on here... :)

Offline hooded claw

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2004, 10:31:07 pm »

Many many thanks. It's always nice to know when  people appreciate what I post on here... :)

Not me- I think you talk shit.

 :P

PS hayden on his way

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #20 on: November 23, 2004, 06:51:34 pm »
i find it interesting that in the above responses to Paul's well-thought out and well-argued article, no one really wants to address the issue of Liverpool getting better results without Steven Gerrard than with him in the side.

he's such a talisman, and so very Liverpool, that to even consider being better without him is uncomfortable.  commonly accepted wisdom, which is all too often so much bunk and balderdash, is that great players make great teams, and great players make great teams even greater; for example, Maradona leading a decent but not world-beating Argentina to World Cup glory in 1986.

Paul mentioned Rooney in his article, and how much better Everton are doing in the league without him this season compared to last.  I do not think that given three wishes, David Moyes would miss the chance to have Rooney back in his squad, and I don't think Liverpool are better without Gerrard either.

But clearly, in both cases, the native sons garnered such a passionate following from the respective home supporters that perhaps the other players, particularly the foreign ones, feel it is the natural course for them to take a bit of a back seat.  Indeed, in Rooney's case, when he had done much less for Everton than Gerrard has for Liverpool, there was probably more than a little resentment at the star-status and star-treatment for Rooney at Everton.

Clearly, with Rooney and the inevitable sideshows gone from Goodison, Moyes and his players have been able solely to concentrate on the football, and it must be said, have done a commendable job thus far (although I don't see them strengthening in the January window; rather, I think Gravesen will depart and that will have drastic effects on team balance and shape...)

As for us, in so many other ways, Rafa has already shown that he is the wild card in our deck.  Gerrard probably did have too much responsibility thrust upon him under Houllier.  Rafa has already gone public with comments about the need for Gerrard to "pick his spots" to make runs and to pay attention to his responsibilities within the team concept.

At Valencia, Benitez had players like Vicente and Pablo Aimar who, given the chance, might have taken more on themselves than what would be beneficial.  Rafa has much experience with developing and supporting a team concept.  So, even though the stats might show that we have done better without Gerrard than with him, (and we did play several of the weakest teams in the Premier League without him this season, did we not? (Palace, Norwich...), that statistic does not hold enough merit yet until Gerrard and Benitez have had more time to work together.  It would be an entirely accurate criticism of Houllier to state that Owen and Gerrard had too much responsibility, emphasis, and tactical freedom, placed on their shoulders.  I strongly doubt that Rafa plans a similar course of action in regards to his club captain.

I find a common theme to a lot of my posts in RAWK to be give Rafa time to implement what he is trying to achieve.

Given the horrific injury crises he has had to endure, our positions in the League and Champions League are still tenable, and i know I feel much more confident about Liverpool FC with him at the helm than I ever did under Houllier

this started out being about Stevie G. and ended up being about Rafa...

karma, maybe? ;D

very thought-provoking article Paul, kudos...


   
Since haste quite Schorsch, but Liverpool are genuine fight pigs...

Offline Paul Tomkins

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2004, 07:45:09 pm »
Cheers, Bill...  :)

Weird thing is that the next day I read that we score a lot more goals when Gerrard plays - so it's clear that he offers a lot in that sense.

If Rafa can improve yet further on Gerrard's all-round effectiveness, then we'll be heading in the right direction.

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2004, 08:23:03 pm »
As I said on your thread on this subject on the forum, this could well be a case of "complex causes". Many other factors are involved in our success or failure than Steven Gerrard, and it is dangerous to pin down the effect to a single cause without also analysing the other factors. For instance, this season we have had a new manager and backroom staff, along with their new training regimes and tactics "settling in" to the club. We've also changed the playing staff. All of these changes, as well as other factors, could be responsible for an improvement in form which could have "clicked in" at just the time Stevie got injured. In other seasons (and the quote doesn't show the extent to which they looked at it), other factors could have been involved such as other players recovering from injuries or changes in the first team or tactics. Unless I saw a much deeper analysis of the tests they ran, I would be loth to simply agree with the author of the article you quote. There are lies, damned lies and statistics ...
A liar will not be believed, even when he speaks the truth.

Offline Paul Tomkins

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Re: Bleak November Yet Again? Boro 2 LFC 0
« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2004, 10:28:21 am »
As I said on your thread on this subject on the forum, this could well be a case of "complex causes". Many other factors are involved in our success or failure than Steven Gerrard, and it is dangerous to pin down the effect to a single cause without also analysing the other factors. For instance, this season we have had a new manager and backroom staff, along with their new training regimes and tactics "settling in" to the club. We've also changed the playing staff. All of these changes, as well as other factors, could be responsible for an improvement in form which could have "clicked in" at just the time Stevie got injured. In other seasons (and the quote doesn't show the extent to which they looked at it), other factors could have been involved such as other players recovering from injuries or changes in the first team or tactics. Unless I saw a much deeper analysis of the tests they ran, I would be loth to simply agree with the author of the article you quote. There are lies, damned lies and statistics ...


Of course - that's why I didn't analyse it too deeply (although the Independent article suggested it isn't just a trend from just this season). It's impossible to look at the conditions of every game Gerrard has and hasn't played, as each game is different, and you cannot guess how Gerrard playing might have altered things. As I said - all I know is that I'd want him playing every time! I think people may take on more responsibility in his absence, but you need quality individuals who are also team players in your side.