Right good time to get this started with the latest batch of international friendlies in full flow ahead of the summer.
Been backing Germany 5/1 for a few months but all gone now. Six consecutive major-semi final's in a row and a decent draw. Around Evs to make the semi's this time and won't be anywhere near 5/2 should they make semi's again here. 2/1 at that stage in France 2016 (v France) and 11/4 in Brazil 2014 (v Brazil), I imagine they would be around the 13/8 mark.
Also keen to keep Spain 8/1 and Portugal 28/1 onside. We all know how good Spain were winning three consecutive tournaments from Euro 2008 to Euro 2012 but they seemingly lacked penetration since dropping Villa but that's reflected in the price. Looked good in Germany the other night. Portugal showed in 2016 they're happy to just defend and hope for a moment of magic from Ronaldo. They won just one game in 90 minutes but still lifted the trophy! Got a lot of good youngsters coming through too.
In terms of other bets, obviously pretty early to be having too many with the risk of injuries and team/squad selection but a couple I've taken:
- Top Iran Scorer - No goalscorer 6/1
This is purely about price. 11/8 not to score v Morocco, 4/9 v Spain and 8/11 v Portugal (looks far too big) = less than 5/1. From a statistical point of view, scored just 10 in 10 in Asian qualifying and at the last World Cup took them till the 82nd minute of the last game to score (in a group of Argentina, Bosnia and Nigeria).
- Top England scorer - Jesse Lingard 35/1
There is some 66/1 out there (SportPesa) but as a new account I was restricted to £50 max win. Wanted to hold off to see if he starts in the summer but can't after he scored on Friday. Obviously added goals to his game with 13 for Utd already this season. Kane obviously very short priced fave and understandably so, but over a small spread of games (England 4/5 max?) there's more volatility bringing in the chance of other players. Even if he doesn't start, I see him as one of the first three subs. I'd prob say 20/1 max.