Author Topic: World Cup 2018  (Read 40856 times)

Offline markay_stinkay

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World Cup 2018
« on: March 25, 2018, 10:25:58 pm »
Right good time to get this started with the latest batch of international friendlies in full flow ahead of the summer.

Been backing Germany 5/1 for a few months but all gone now. Six consecutive major-semi final's in a row and a decent draw. Around Evs to make the semi's this time and won't be anywhere near 5/2 should they make semi's again here. 2/1 at that stage in France 2016 (v France) and 11/4 in Brazil 2014 (v Brazil), I imagine they would be around the 13/8 mark.

Also keen to keep Spain 8/1 and Portugal 28/1 onside. We all know how good Spain were winning three consecutive tournaments from Euro 2008 to Euro 2012 but they seemingly lacked penetration since dropping Villa but that's reflected in the price. Looked good in Germany the other night. Portugal showed in 2016 they're happy to just defend and hope for a moment of magic from Ronaldo. They won just one game in 90 minutes but still lifted the trophy! Got a lot of good youngsters coming through too.

In terms of other bets, obviously pretty early to be having too many with the risk of injuries and team/squad selection but a couple I've taken:

- Top Iran Scorer - No goalscorer 6/1
This is purely about price. 11/8 not to score v Morocco, 4/9 v Spain and 8/11 v Portugal (looks far too big) = less than 5/1. From a statistical point of view, scored just 10 in 10 in Asian qualifying and at the last World Cup took them till the 82nd minute of the last game to score (in a group of Argentina, Bosnia and Nigeria).

- Top England scorer - Jesse Lingard 35/1
There is some 66/1 out there (SportPesa) but as a new account I was restricted to £50 max win. Wanted to hold off to see if he starts in the summer but can't after he scored on Friday. Obviously added goals to his game with 13 for Utd already this season. Kane obviously very short priced fave and understandably so, but over a small spread of games (England 4/5 max?) there's more volatility bringing in the chance of other players. Even if he doesn't start, I see him as one of the first three subs. I'd prob say 20/1 max.

Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2018, 12:57:26 pm »
Agree on Portugal. They're always worth a small wager.

Poland to reach the QF at 11/4 I quite like. They should progress from their group, and they're then likely to face Belgium or England. Wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world to see them beat either of them. Culturally they'll also feel more at home in Russia than most nations.

Equally Lewandowski at 35/1 to win the Golden Boot looks big. I think Colombia, Japan and Senegal will all offer him plenty of opportunities.

Offline markay_stinkay

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2018, 11:32:41 pm »
*re-asses Portugal opinion!*

Offline Phil M

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2018, 12:07:15 pm »
Belgium anyone? Or is Martinez at the helm too much of a negative?
It's true to say that if Shankly had told us to invade Poland we'd be queuing up 10 deep all the way from Anfield to the Pier Head.

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2018, 02:56:03 pm »
I have Germany to reach the semis in accie ( evens ) . It was looking good until Kane got injured and Salah scores four .
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Offline bryanod

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2018, 03:12:32 pm »
Belgium anyone? Or is Martinez at the helm too much of a negative?

Yes.

Opposing Russia is only thing interesting me so far, shite.

Brazil and Germany should both reach quarters handy enough really, don't think too much outright prices will move until after that so no real need to panic into backing them.
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Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2018, 03:59:40 pm »
Yes.

Opposing Russia is only thing interesting me so far, shite.

In what market are you opposing them? I agree btw, I'm backing Salah to down them into second spot.

Offline Mingles

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2018, 09:06:49 am »
Salah 50/1 top scorer?

Up against Russia, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia.

Will surely rack a fair few up here, giving them a realistic chance of qualifying for the knockout rounds.

When 5/6 goals normally throws you up there, I will have a go on our Mo at these odds.

Offline Mingles

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2018, 12:04:28 pm »
Just looking at the Golden Ball (Player of the Tournament) odds.

I like the look of Iniesta @ 66/1.

My money is on Spain anyway, so I see this as a bit if value.

With it being expected he will retire from international duty after the WC, I can see this one being an emotional selection.

With the fact he's now 34, the pundits will do a decent enough job creating a hype if he puts in a few decent performances.

Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2018, 03:26:58 pm »
Just looking at the Golden Ball (Player of the Tournament) odds.

I like the look of Iniesta @ 66/1.

My money is on Spain anyway, so I see this as a bit if value.

With it being expected he will retire from international duty after the WC, I can see this one being an emotional selection.

With the fact he's now 34, the pundits will do a decent enough job creating a hype if he puts in a few decent performances.

Yep, got on this the other day. Ramos too at 80/1.

Offline bryanod

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2018, 02:03:59 pm »
Players at this summer’s World Cup finals could be given red cards for off-the-ball incidents spotted by the Video Assistant Referee (VAR), football’s rule-making body the International Football Association Board (Ifab) has confirmed.

[...]

In addition to existing powers, new regulations which come into force on 1 June will enable them to alert the referee to any incidents that have been missed – even if play has restarted. That means an offender can subsequently be sent off at any time during the match.
http://theguardian.com/football/2018/may/30/world-cup-var-red-cards-retrospective-russia?

Has resulted in me having a decent bet on over 11 reds in the tournament. Should be good for one or two.

Plus stats back it anyway as depsite Brazil only having 10, previous 64 game tournaments (and last couple of smaller ones) all had 15+ and fact that average somewhere around 0.2/0.25 red per game in most leagues suggest 15/16 again.
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Offline Phil M

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2018, 03:15:36 pm »
Has resulted in me having a decent bet on over 11 reds in the tournament. Should be good for one or two.

With who?

I've only seen this market... https://m.skybet.com/football/world-cup-2018/event/22302339
It's true to say that if Shankly had told us to invade Poland we'd be queuing up 10 deep all the way from Anfield to the Pier Head.

Offline bryanod

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2018, 03:28:28 pm »
With who?

I've only seen this market... https://m.skybet.com/football/world-cup-2018/event/22302339

90-min only is a bit cheeky but least couple less, can't use skybet so went with below. Surprised line is so low anyway to be honest.

Tournament totals on 365
« Last Edit: May 30, 2018, 03:29:59 pm by bryanod »
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Offline Phil M

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2018, 03:40:07 pm »
90-min only is a bit cheeky but least couple less, can't use skybet so went with below. Surprised line is so low anyway to be honest.

Tournament totals on 365


Cheers for that link, couldn't find those markets earlier.
It's true to say that if Shankly had told us to invade Poland we'd be queuing up 10 deep all the way from Anfield to the Pier Head.

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #14 on: June 6, 2018, 11:12:01 pm »
Ok then we have one.
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Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #15 on: June 6, 2018, 11:18:45 pm »
One thing I've noticed is the BTTS odds are looking tasty. Most of them are above or  close to evens.
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

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The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

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Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #16 on: June 7, 2018, 03:26:34 am »
Belguim / Germany final.

33/1
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

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The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

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Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #17 on: June 7, 2018, 07:18:04 pm »
Germany to beat Argentina in the final.

50/1
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline WhoHe

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #18 on: June 8, 2018, 12:41:13 pm »
Funny one Argentina as I rate them but the bookies have them at 10s when they are usually among the favs.

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #19 on: June 8, 2018, 01:55:24 pm »
I done the Germany and Spain final too last night.

28/1
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline gjr1

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #20 on: June 8, 2018, 08:47:45 pm »
Fancy France to win the whole thing
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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #21 on: June 8, 2018, 10:34:48 pm »
Brazil and Germany to win all their group games and Panama and Iran to lose all their group games - 80/1

Poland, Sweden, Serbia, Denmark, Egypt, England, Croatia and Portugal all to qualify from their groups - 80/1

My only 2 bets for the tournament so far. (SkyBet)
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Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #22 on: June 8, 2018, 11:11:45 pm »
Argentina and France final.

20/1

Instead of betting everyday I'm putting World Cup bets on as it is something to look forward too. I may start doing Brazil final bets soon and got Croatia in my head for some reason.
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

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The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

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You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #23 on: June 8, 2018, 11:14:09 pm »
Brazil and Germany to win all their group games and Panama and Iran to lose all their group games - 80/1

Poland, Sweden, Serbia, Denmark, Egypt, England, Croatia and Portugal all to qualify from their groups - 80/1

My only 2 bets for the tournament so far. (SkyBet)

Liking the top one . 80/1 .

Go ead then.
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #24 on: June 8, 2018, 11:19:41 pm »
Can't find it. I go to Outrights ?
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #25 on: June 8, 2018, 11:22:17 pm »
Found it.
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #26 on: June 8, 2018, 11:28:14 pm »
Not letting me do the fourfold.  Its only single bets only.
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #27 on: June 9, 2018, 02:56:13 pm »
Brazil and Germany to win all their group games and Panama and Iran to lose all their group games - 80/1

Done this, but with Spain added, for 250/1 on PP
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Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #28 on: June 11, 2018, 05:13:45 pm »
Argentina / Grmany final.

40/1
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline adruk87

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #29 on: June 11, 2018, 06:36:26 pm »
Coral have a nice market, top group goalscorer. I've put a super heinz on from 7 of the 8 groups. Some good odds such as Messi @3/1, Griezmann @9/2, Suarez 4/1.
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Offline rodderzzz

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #30 on: June 11, 2018, 06:45:43 pm »
Cavani top scorer/Germany to win at 125/1 for me. Can see cavani getting 5 in that group

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #31 on: June 11, 2018, 06:52:26 pm »
Coral have a nice market, top group goalscorer. I've put a super heinz on from 7 of the 8 groups. Some good odds such as Messi @3/1, Griezmann @9/2, Suarez 4/1.

Interesting.

Going to do a teams to win the group or qualify accie too. Was arsing about before on 365 and got a could easily happen at 68/1 .
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #32 on: June 11, 2018, 11:40:48 pm »
Done it.

Uruguay
Spain
Belguim

To win their groups with

Croatia
Serbia
Denmark
Mexico
Colombia

All to qualify

69/1
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #33 on: June 12, 2018, 03:46:12 pm »
Uruguay / Egypt Straight Forecast 7/1 @ b365

I think it's basically 50/50 whether Russia or Egypt finish 2nd so that seems massive odds

Offline kesey

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #34 on: June 13, 2018, 12:16:06 am »
Just seen Germany over 9.5 for the whole tournament at 10/11 . Not touching it as I dont do big singles. Considering they have scored 14 , 14 , 16 and 16 in the last four WCs I'd say that's a cert.

Just done Germany win and Cavani top scorer.
He who sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself loses all fear.

- The Upanishads.

The heart knows the way. Run in that direction

- Rumi

You are held . You are loved . You are seen  - Some wise fella .

Offline LanceLink!!!!!

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #35 on: June 13, 2018, 08:27:12 am »
Mbappe top goal scorer, Brazil winners.

150/1

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #36 on: June 13, 2018, 08:39:18 am »
I'm assuming he's their set piece taker...Hazard 16/1 top Premier League scorer. Should be goals for Belgium (and England) in that group.

Saying that, just seen Mane at 33/1.
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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #37 on: June 13, 2018, 08:59:40 am »
I've gone for Morocco to get through their group at 3/1, edging out a Portugal team who drew all three group games in Euro 2016. Obviously Spain and Portugal are favourites but Morocco have Iran to start, must win that and go in all fired up for the Portugal game. They've got a good little side and a good coach who, unusually for some African teams, hasn't been parachuted in five minutes before the tournament.

Also had a bet on Brazil-Spain being the final but the Spain manager thing might really fuck that up. Unless they get rid of him and throw Zidane in for the tournament, that'd probably make me more confident  ;D

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #38 on: June 13, 2018, 01:08:46 pm »
How do we think Spain will perform after all this?

Not get out the group or rally together and win the thing?

Offline Kopite Tom

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Re: World Cup 2018
« Reply #39 on: June 13, 2018, 01:34:38 pm »
Torn between doing Germany or Brazil as the outright winners.
Also going to have a small punt on Portugal, worth it at the price being offered on various sites.