Topic: Betting Strategies

[aggerdid]

My max bet limits on sky have started to decrease. £250ish. Not my fault they price football up wrong

[Klippity Klopp]

My max bet limits on sky have started to decrease. £250ish. Not my fault they price football up wrong

Sounds like someone is winning a lot.

[aggerdid]

Today for example. Had 100 on 1.8 on 365 and 80 on 2.625 on skybet. And sky wins again. £30 and more suspicion

[aggerdid]

One thing i'm intrigued with this week is betting on "e-sports". Theres this lad in work who doesnt like sport at all(incredible i know) but like his games and has recently started betting on them and profiting, or so he says. So last week i opened a few in play pages on one "match". This is basically a load of nerds playing a call of duty style game called counterstrike which is the fairest game ever made according to this lad in work.

So yeah i'm sat there looking how the markets work in play and was stunned/confused to see how volatile it was. So volatile in fact you can arb in play on the match winner. Upon further investigation I've noticed mistakes. For example one I've just sent him:
Match Result

Option A 3/10
Option B 12/5

Correct Score

Option A 2-0 1/12
Option A 2-1 6/1
Option B 2-0 8/13
Option B 2-1 6/5

[aggerdid]

Me again. Not posted in here for a while but I still do the arbitrage bets as detailed in earlier threads. Once I got banned from sky I got a family member to open a new bank account which I use for betting. Still max £100 bet. Pays for petrol and my bets anyway.

The real reason why I decided to post in here is this talk I went to the other week. I hadn’t slept for around 30 hours at the time due to plane delays but anyway went to this talk about the future of manufacturing. This lecturer from ljmu gets up really passionate talking about the uses of data in the future. Then he put on a little video(basically to see if we were all awake) of data being used in real terms in football. The clip he showed was of man city mancini (i think) era tearing us apart at the etihad one time. Well anyway this clip showed the pitch divided into 32 zones with every pass given a rating which eventually spat out a goal probability % depending on the cross.

This got me thinking anyway. As discussed on here in the past I believe corner bets are the best bets in football. The only issue is the aim of football is not to win corners so the motivation point of a normal bet is removed sort of. The corner bets I like arent offered by every bookie, its the individual team corner totals. These are defined basically by finding the home team average corners won, home team average corners conceded and the opposite for the away team. Team selections are not taken into account. See palace vs spurs as a good example. Tottenhams high defensive line vs zaha and another pacey striker. Palace were rated as 3.5 yet actually won 9 in the match.

Factors to consider:
Amount of crosses from wingers
Amount of potential cross areas the wingers are in yet decide to pass inside(see arsenal)
Amount of full back overlaps leading to crosses
Amount of corners saved by a defender during a clearance/block
Amount of corners conceded by a goalkeeper
Average positions of defenders in similar situational games(city at home to relegation fodder for example)
Amount of shots on target

I reckon with a bit of effort on stats its possible to make a better judgement on these individual team corner total markets than the bookies

[Phil M]

I reckon with a bit of effort on stats its possible to make a better judgement on these individual team corner total markets than the bookies

Where do you start though mate in terms of stat research?

Home advantage - Obvs you're probably not going to find much value in the corner market City at home to any bottom half side for example?
Attacking team away from home who have been scoring loads or focus more on formations where the championship or serie B or Jupiler team are set up in a traditional 4-4-2 with wingers
against a team who defend narrowly etc. So many mitigating factors.

It's on thing finding the right sides to follow but then to find the value as well.

[-Willo-]

I don't have much of a strat, but a way I try to ensure I stay in profit is think in increments.

So for example I won £300 last weekend, and I have £30 to play with a week. So I just think now I've got 10 weeks of 'risk free' betting, gives me headspace knowing all I need to do is win another bet in 2 and a bit months and I'll be up even more. Means I'm always playing with profit really, just keep your betting structured, don't stick £30 on a bet then do the same bet next week with £5.


As for actual betting, over 1.5 accumulators are so profitable, I usually go with an 8 fold over 1.5 every week at about 7/1. Strike rate of maybe 40% on them, not bad.

[Phil M]

As for actual betting, over 1.5 accumulators are so profitable, I usually go with an 8 fold over 1.5 every week at about 7/1. Strike rate of maybe 40% on them, not bad.

Which leagues are you focusing on?

[-Willo-]

Which leagues are you focusing on?

Seria A, Championship, League One.

I don't touch the Premier League, feel like theres hardly any first half goals in it.

[Phil M]

Seria A, Championship, League One.

I don't touch the Premier League, feel like theres hardly any first half goals in it.

Will you cash out if say you have 5 up and it's gone second half with no goals in a couple of games to reduce potential losses mate?

[-Willo-]

Will you cash out if say you have 5 up and it's gone second half with no goals in a couple of games to reduce potential losses mate?

No I usually leave it, if I've got the chance to cover my original stake when theres one game left I do that though.

e.g. one game left and its 1-0, stick £10 on under 1.5 for peace of mind, or just cash!

Its tricky with over 1.5 though because a goal before the 80th at 0-0 and its suddenly back on with a chance, so cashing out is always risky.

[aggerdid]

Any ideas for over 1.5 games this weekend then?

[james791]

Agree with looking at Championship and League One for goals. League Two can also be brilliant, but seems to swing from one extreme to the other almost every week (or at least it does on my betting slips)

Terrible odds on Jupiler league goals for a while now. Still capable of big scoring, but I've seen several 0-0's recently. Maybe the league as a whole is tightening up? just not worth it at the odds offered on over 2.5

There may be value to be found in French ligue1 and 2. Traditionally very low scoring leagues, but I've seen quite a lot being banged in on a Friday night. No guarantees of course.

[Rysoph76]

I don't have much of a strat, but a way I try to ensure I stay in profit is think in increments.

So for example I won £300 last weekend, and I have £30 to play with a week. So I just think now I've got 10 weeks of 'risk free' betting, gives me headspace knowing all I need to do is win another bet in 2 and a bit months and I'll be up even more. Means I'm always playing with profit really, just keep your betting structured, don't stick £30 on a bet then do the same bet next week with £5.


As for actual betting, over 1.5 accumulators are so profitable, I usually go with an 8 fold over 1.5 every week at about 7/1. Strike rate of maybe 40% on them, not bad.

That's pretty much my approach. I am very much an accumulator rather than a gambler as such. I'm happy to keep winning little bits to keep me ticking over. I try to start with £50 each month regardless of what I won the previous month and just see what I can take it up to. Sometimes i'll take some out if I have a good winner but mostly I do smaller bets to nudge up slowly rather than trying to go for more extravagant bets. For me, i'm happy to stick £20 on a 1.4 shot in the darts for example if I think it's a really good bet cos i'm happy to add 8 quid to the bank.

The 1.5 accumulator approach is interesting, I do like an occasional accumulator with a lot of small price selections. 

[aggerdid]

Sky will ban you if you do loads of these but consider the following:

Man city corners and swansea corners.
Swansea 13/8 3+ sky vs swansea under 2.5 5/4 365.
City under 7 11/4 sky vs city over 6.5 8/11 365

So heres what you do. Check your sky max bet first to avoid nasty surprises. Whatever you stake under 2.5, your winnings should be your stake on sky. Then on the city one i reckon city will get over 6.5 so do under 7 on sky andwinnings on over 6.5 at 8/11 on 365. As i say check your max stakes on sky before you do anything. Alternatively you could pop the arbs into an arb calc. Stake on the low odds then divide by the large odds basically and you win regardless of the result. You’ll be banned off sky but they’re shite anyway

[LovelyCushionedHeader]

Sky will ban you if you do loads of these but consider the following:

Man city corners and swansea corners.
Swansea 13/8 3+ sky vs swansea under 2.5 5/4 365.
City under 7 11/4 sky vs city over 6.5 8/11 365

So heres what you do. Check your sky max bet first to avoid nasty surprises. Whatever you stake under 2.5, your winnings should be your stake on sky. Then on the city one i reckon city will get over 6.5 so do under 7 on sky andwinnings on over 6.5 at 8/11 on 365. As i say check your max stakes on sky before you do anything. Alternatively you could pop the arbs into an arb calc. Stake on the low odds then divide by the large odds basically and you win regardless of the result. You’ll be banned off sky but they’re shite anyway

Looks great. Do you find these yourself or use a third party?

How common is it?!

[aggerdid]

Looks great. Do you find these yourself or use a third party?

How common is it?!

odds have changed on the swansea one now. 11/10 vs 5/4.

I find them myself. They don’t show on oddschecker because the markets are 4+ vs 3.5. I find them every prem round with the occasional champions league one thrown in

[Phil M]

odds have changed on the swansea one now. 11/10 vs 5/4.

I find them myself. They don’t show on oddschecker because the markets are 4+ vs 3.5. I find them every prem round with the occasional champions league one thrown in

Stakes have to be big to make any sort of decent profit though mate when arbing which can be a red flag for traders and you end up being
limited.

[liversaint]

Just using odds checker can be enough to get you flagged up with the traders.