Poll

RAWK and Brexit

No Deal!
65 (8.8%)
Mays Deal!
14 (1.9%)
No Brexit!
539 (72.8%)
Don't Know
10 (1.4%)
Don't Care
15 (2%)
I don't live in the UK
97 (13.1%)

Total Members Voted: 740

Author Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"  (Read 1446583 times)

Offline filopastry

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24480 on: August 16, 2019, 03:52:30 pm »
Change can voice a opinion but they also need to accept facts. if they believe other parties have got their facts wrong on Parliamentary procedure then they need to sit down with other parties and discuss who is right or wrong.
The parties have a few weeks to thrash this out and I think the possibility of a no deal will force compromise. the first thing everyone's agreed on is we need a extension. Zeb pointed out this extension can't take us in to April next year. so that's a 5 month extension at most. we need to either have another referendum or GE to bring about another referendum inside 5 months. can this Parliament achieve all this is the question.

All Change seem to be saying is that they won't vote for a VONC until they can see there is a majority for a GNU to be formed.

I think their reading is correct, that if the 14 days post VONC pass without a GNU forming then an election can be called, Parliament dissolved and with the time remaining Johnson could call the resulting GE so that we had already exited the EU by then.

Change's view is that we should continue to look for other Parliamentary solutions until such time as it appears that there is a majority in Parliament to support a GNU.

It doesn't help that conference season will be in the middle of this process as well

Offline Andy

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24481 on: August 16, 2019, 03:56:30 pm »
At this stage, does anyone have any idea what's going to happen??

The real anti Brexit people are finally starting to talk to each more publicly, and getting themselves organised. Progress at last.

Offline Alan_X

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24482 on: August 16, 2019, 04:15:02 pm »
You know why the Lib Dems are doing this, they know that a General election will now come down to vote Tory for a Johnson hard Brexit or Labour for a 2nd ref on any deal Labour get, with remain on the ballot there will be no need to vote for the Brexit party or the Lib Dems.

Where will Remain be on the ballot? Corbyn said that Labour would go for a Labour Brexit if they win the election. Has 'Labour Spokesman' Seamus agreed that Labour is a Remain party?
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24483 on: August 16, 2019, 04:19:36 pm »
Agreed. I think the point of disagreement is that that isn't Swinson's decision and her eagerness to do so betrayed a desire to be seen as the leader of 'Stop-No-Deal' (with all the political gain associated) that slightly over-reached her position.


Could you point me to the statement where that comes across? I've read the statement where she dismisses Corbyn as a possible leader of a GNU because he couldn't command a majority of MPS across the house.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24484 on: August 16, 2019, 04:27:46 pm »
Where will Remain be on the ballot? Corbyn said that Labour would go for a Labour Brexit if they win the election. Has 'Labour Spokesman' Seamus agreed that Labour is a Remain party?

That was the problem with the last election: Labour were too cowardly to back Remain and so people (I think including Corbyn, but I might be wrong) said that "x% of voters voted for a Leave party" which put Labour in the same camp as the Tories.


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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24485 on: August 16, 2019, 04:46:40 pm »
Interesting to see the reaction in the comments to Owen Jones's piece in The Guardian, which seems to be, predominantly, a subdued anger that Corbyn is playing politics at a time of crisis and a wish to see another candidate emerge. So RAWK would seem to be an indicator on this.

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24486 on: August 16, 2019, 05:07:20 pm »
No he shouldn't step aside and I'm 100% sure no other opposition leader(past/present/future) would allow a back bench mp to lead a  TEMPORARY government until a GE.

Chamberlain stepped down as PM to allow someone else to lead the coalition because Labour refused to work under Chamberlain. His preference, Lord Halifax, also stood aside to let Churchill lead the  coalition.
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Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24487 on: August 16, 2019, 05:24:40 pm »
All Change seem to be saying is that they won't vote for a VONC until they can see there is a majority for a GNU to be formed.

I think their reading is correct, that if the 14 days post VONC pass without a GNU forming then an election can be called, Parliament dissolved and with the time remaining Johnson could call the resulting GE so that we had already exited the EU by then.

Change's view is that we should continue to look for other Parliamentary solutions until such time as it appears that there is a majority in Parliament to support a GNU.

It doesn't help that conference season will be in the middle of this process as well
Yeah, if that's what they are saying then I think they are correct. it's actually a good point, a new leader has to be sorted before the VONC is held. having said that if they can't pass legislation to stop a no deal then we are f.. anyway so it doesn't really matter if a National government can't be formed.
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Offline filopastry

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24488 on: August 16, 2019, 05:31:36 pm »
Yeah, if that's what they are saying then I think they are correct. it's actually a good point, a new leader has to be sorted before the VONC is held. having said that if they can't pass legislation to stop a no deal then we are f.. anyway so it doesn't really matter if a National government can't be formed.

Agreed

On the other hand they seem pretty much 100% set on not voting for a Corbyn led GNU, which just adds to the mountain that option would have to climb (even more Tory votes that just don't seem to be there).

The odd one though is that they seem to be pushing for a confirmatory ref rather than an election, as nice as that would be I just don't see that happening as we have all discussed on here. Of course I suppose pretty much all the people left in Change are likely to lose their seats in a GE, so that might make a bit more sense on that basis!
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 05:33:25 pm by filopastry »

Offline Ghost Town

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24489 on: August 16, 2019, 05:47:25 pm »
Legislating to stop No Deal, including options such as making No Deal illegal, or forcing the government to seek an extension or enshrining in law a backstop (ha ha) which legally mandates that if there is no workable solution by Oct 30, then A50 has to be revoked etc, surely have to be tried first before any dissolution for a GE. In that sense Change are correct; Parliament must be sitting while there's a chance to find a parliamentary way out of this, and so a GoNU must be certain before a VoNC.

I assumed that was taken as read.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24490 on: August 16, 2019, 05:56:02 pm »
Agreed

On the other hand they seem pretty much 100% set on not voting for a Corbyn led GNU, which just adds to the mountain that option would have to climb (even more Tory votes that just don't seem to be there).

The odd one though is that they seem to be pushing for a confirmatory ref rather than an election, as nice as that would be I just don't see that happening as we have all discussed on here. Of course I suppose pretty much all the people left in Change are likely to lose their seats in a GE, so that might make a bit more sense on that basis!
I think change are only saying what many of us have said for the last few years, GEs aren't a true indicter on how the country feels about Brexit, the only true way of finding out how the country feels is another referendum, can the coalition organise one, the Tory MPs are probably gone after the next election so I imagine they would rather have the chance to bring about a referendum first as well.
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Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24491 on: August 16, 2019, 06:38:19 pm »
This, pretty much, non-story (it's aspirations of Cooper-Boles Part II without any details of a plan to realise them) does not answer the important question of whether Corbyn and Labour are also "open to" backing a government of national unity that does not have him as its leader.

Jeremy Corbyn 'open to' law forcing Brexit delay

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49373208
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 06:51:09 pm by ShakaHislop »

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24492 on: August 16, 2019, 06:47:18 pm »
Corbyn won't bring a VONC if it's going to fail. They key on that probably won't be Grieve et al, who are open to a GNU (just not led by Corbyn), but by the Change UK bloc who are putting the argument that a VONC followed by no GNU leaves us open to a Johnson-scheduled election, and that it would be better to at least have a sitting parliament to try other legislative means to avoid No Deal.
Do Change UK have a point? Or is it bollocks?
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Offline Zeb

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24493 on: August 16, 2019, 07:50:03 pm »
Do Change UK have a point? Or is it bollocks?

They have a point that it's a possibility because no-one's tested what happens should a PM running a caretaker government (ie after the VoNC) decide to start ripping up conventions on stepping down and/or making huge decisions after losing a VoNC, as Johnson's government is giving out they will do.

edit: just some sourcing, quoted from this before (from p.12, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf ) :

Quote
There are also outstanding questions about what might happen in the 14-day period after a no confidence motion is passed. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act only rules that a second vote of confidence in the government is needed during that time to avoid a general election. It does not say whether the government that lost the first vote should stay in place, or if it ought to resign.

The explanatory notes for the Act indicate that the period is intended to enable an alternative government to be formed, if one can be. If it cannot, it allows the incumbent prime minister to choose whether to call an election. (However, it is also a longstanding constitutional convention that a government that has lost the confidence of the House cannot continue indefinitely in office.)

But for a new government to be formed in this time, both the support for an alternative government needs to be clear and the incumbent prime minister needs to be willing to resign in favour of this alternative government.

There is a chance that the incumbent prime minister might seek to build support to pass a second vote of confidence or wait out the 14-day period and let an election happen, regardless of whether an alternative government could be found. To do the latter in the face of a clear parliamentary majority for an alternative government would go against constitutional convention that a government only survives if it maintains the confidence of the House.

If no alternative government is formed after the government lost the confidence of the House, then the incumbent government has a duty to act only in a caretaker capacity until a successful government is formed. However, it would be responsible for facilitating a general election in the face of an extremely tight timetable. For a new government to attempt to win a general election and be in place before the 31 October deadline, the no confidence process leading up to a fall of the government would have to begin as soon as Parliament returns from summer recess on 3 September. Even then it could require some flexibility in when an election took place, for example breaking the convention of holding elections on Thursdays. The process could be sped up if Parliament legislated for a shorter campaign period, but this would require the support of the government.

As the incumbent prime minister advises the Queen on the date for the election, Johnson could try to set a date after 31 October, thereby ensuring that the UK left without a deal first. However, any attempt by a prime minister who has just lost a no confidence vote and so, by convention, is acting only in a caretaker capacity to use their powers in this way would be hugely controversial, both politically and constitutionally. It might also be open to legal challenge.

If a new government came into office during the 14-day period following the initial vote of no confidence and wanted to avoid no deal, the new prime minister would still need to go to the EU and secure a further extension before the 31 October deadline.

Again, keep in mind the timeline. 17th/18th October is the European Council meeting where Johnson will or will not ask for and accept an extension. If MPs wait to see what happens, then earliest a VoNC can happen is 22nd October. Two weeks takes you past the 31st. Automatic operation of law on the 31st takes us out.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 08:04:19 pm by Zeb »
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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24494 on: August 16, 2019, 08:20:46 pm »
Study on Mass Media:


Offline Ghost Town

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24496 on: August 16, 2019, 09:46:59 pm »
Who knew?
Even so, it is rather scary and depressing for a study to seemingly confirm what we knew instinctively.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24497 on: August 16, 2019, 10:02:15 pm »
Do Change UK have a point? Or is it bollocks?
They have a point - but is it a point that needs making right now? Is it a point that may be self-fulfilling, if No Deal opponents talk up all the downsides of one approach or another? I'm not sure why all the various shades of No Deal opponents need to be focusing on their divisions quite so publicly.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24498 on: August 16, 2019, 10:14:16 pm »
They have a point that it's a possibility because no-one's tested what happens should a PM running a caretaker government (ie after the VoNC) decide to start ripping up conventions on stepping down and/or making huge decisions after losing a VoNC, as Johnson's government is giving out they will do.

edit: just some sourcing, quoted from this before (from p.12, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf ) :

Again, keep in mind the timeline. 17th/18th October is the European Council meeting where Johnson will or will not ask for and accept an extension. If MPs wait to see what happens, then earliest a VoNC can happen is 22nd October. Two weeks takes you past the 31st. Automatic operation of law on the 31st takes us out.
That's a rather depressing scenario. All the more so because it is not so fanciful.

What's happened in the UK and US has made me reevaluate who I consider my political enemies. I find that I have - in some ways - more in common with some of those on the right than I do with some on the left. Cultists and charlatans should be the true shared enemy of anyone who is not given to following people like Johnson and Corbyn; those who believe in democracy, facts and some reasonable discourse. Surely there must be a realignment of party politics after all this.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 10:18:12 pm by Jiminy Cricket »
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24499 on: August 16, 2019, 10:17:22 pm »
They have a point - but is it a point that needs making right now? Is it a point that may be self-fulfilling, if No Deal opponents talk up all the downsides of one approach or another? I'm not sure why all the various shades of No Deal opponents need to be focusing on their divisions quite so publicly.
And you have a point. But, weren't there already signals that Johnson might ignore law, convention, and all decency*?

* Well, that, no doubt, deserted him while he was a wee boy.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24500 on: August 16, 2019, 10:34:55 pm »
That's a rather depressing scenario. All the more so because it is not so fanciful.

What's happened in the UK and US has made me reevaluate who I consider my political enemies. I find that I have - in some ways - more in common with some of those on the right than I do with some on the left. Cultists and charlatans should be the true shared enemy of anyone who is not given to following people like Johnson and Corbyn; those who believe in democracy, facts and some reasonable discourse. Surely there must be a realignment of party politics after all this.

Why legal default needs shifting I think, and why it may be more possible to persuade MPs to back an outcome which does that through legislation. The stuff about GNU may be needed regardless but it's all posturing at the moment, and if Lucas mishandled it then Corbyn's approach seems almost perfectly aimed to torch any chance by feeding his fans' self-righteousness while angering the numerate.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24501 on: August 16, 2019, 11:24:10 pm »
Well, Ken Clarke is up for the challenge it seems: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49372525

If the government of national unity becomes a reality then it'd be good to have a proper adult in charge for at least a few weeks. Plus he's retiring soon so is no threat to anyone long-term.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24502 on: August 16, 2019, 11:33:28 pm »
Well, Ken Clarke is up for the challenge it seems: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49372525

If the government of national unity becomes a reality then it'd be good to have a proper adult in charge for at least a few weeks. Plus he's retiring soon so is no threat to anyone long-term.
and he gives zero fucks

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24503 on: August 16, 2019, 11:47:11 pm »
and he gives zero fucks for his own career


Added a bit to why he is the type of person anyone should want to drive this short term shitshow forward. Still amazed corbyn wants anything to do with it as if he gets the gig he'll be tarred with what happens so even more unlikely to get a future role that he wants.

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24504 on: August 17, 2019, 12:33:36 am »

Added a bit to why he is the type of person anyone should want to drive this short term shitshow forward. Still amazed corbyn wants anything to do with it as if he gets the gig he'll be tarred with what happens so even more unlikely to get a future role that he wants.
i doubt he’d give it up if he did get it, that’s part of the reason why i don’t think many are willing to help him (I mean why should Swinson and the Lib Dem’s go out of her way to help him when the moment she got elected they were setting the attack chihuahuas on them!)

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24505 on: August 17, 2019, 11:34:11 am »
i doubt he’d give it up if he did get it, that’s part of the reason why i don’t think many are willing to help him (I mean why should Swinson and the Lib Dem’s go out of her way to help him when the moment she got elected they were setting the attack chihuahuas on them!)
You've not actually explained any way in which Corbyn could cling to power or do anything not related to stopping No Deal, though. It's just not feasible.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24506 on: August 17, 2019, 12:00:51 pm »
You've not actually explained any way in which Corbyn could cling to power or do anything not related to stopping No Deal, though. It's just not feasible.

thinking back to how he was when he lost that no confidence vote and refused to budge, he’d probably do what boris would try to do going off how the far left are with power and not wanting to give it up

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24507 on: August 17, 2019, 12:08:49 pm »
Could you point me to the statement where that comes across? I've read the statement where she dismisses Corbyn as a possible leader of a GNU because he couldn't command a majority of MPS across the house.
This article is from Wednesday evening, after Corbyn had written to the other parties, and with the initial responses from the LD's, SNP, and Lucas. Spot the differences in emphasis and tone from the other leaders. And which one is advertising a speech she's going to be making about how we should stop a No Deal.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/105925/lib-dems-reject-jeremy-corbyns-call

But the call was given a frosty reception by the other opposition parties, who either snubbed the offer or called on Mr Corbyn to go further in his commitment to halting no-deal.

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson, who is due to give her own Brexit speech on Thursday, appeared to reject the gambit outright.

She said: "Jeremy Corbyn is not the person who is going to be able to build an even temporary majority in the House of Commons for this task – I would expect there are people in his own party and indeed the necessary Conservative backbenchers who would be unwilling to support him. It is a nonsense." Ms Swinson added: "This letter is just more red lines that are about him and his position and is not a serious attempt to find the right solution and build a consensus to stop a no-deal Brexit. I am committed to working in a credible way with those in other parties, and none, across Parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit and will set out how that could work in my speech tomorrow."

Meanwhile the SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford said he had already written to Mr Corbyn "a fortnight ago requesting cross-party talks in order to stop a catastrophic no-deal Brexit".

And he added: “I am pleased to receive his letter today confirming that Labour will now work with the SNP and others collaboratively to stop the UK government - but this means Labour needs to get off the fence on Brexit. I will be pleased to meet with the Labour leader and others at the earliest opportunity to work together. I can also confirm that the SNP stands ready to bring down this Tory government should Labour table a Vote of No Confidence motion. The SNP will vote against this Prime Minister and his government when the opportunity arises. However, as detailed in my previous letter, we face an urgent threat of a no-deal Brexit with the clock ticking down to the 31st October. Therefore we must act immediately and collectively to stop the Prime Minister from dragging us out of the European Union without a deal.
That means working together to find cast iron solutions. We need to explore how Parliament can take back control and use all means at our disposal to protect citizens from a damaging no-deal Brexit."

Green Party MP Caroline Lucas said she "absolutely" backed Mr Corbyn's call for a vote of no-confidence in Mr Johnson, which Labour has promised to call soon after Parliament returns from its summer recess. But the prominent supporter of the so-called 'People's Vote' campaign for a second Brexit referendum called on the Labour leader to do more to secure a fresh public vote. The Brighton Pavilion MP said: "Preventing a crash-out Brexit on the 31st October was what lay behind my proposal earlier this week. But the proposal from the Labour leader does not guarantee that the people are given the final say on Brexit. Holding a general election before a People's Vote is the wrong way around."

She added: "I would back a vote of no-confidence if Jeremy Corbyn calls it, but what I ask him to do is to guarantee that if he fails to win the confidence of the House, even for a time-limited temporary Government, that he would commit to supporting an MP who can do that, then deliver the crucial letter to the EU asking for an extension of Article 50, then a People's Vote. After that is the time to hold an election, when voters can make the choice about their representatives to take the UK forward, dealing with the pressing issues within our country."


The clue that Swinson had overplayed her hand was that by Thursday lunchtime - when Grieve, Letwin, Spelman, Boles and Bebb had indicated they would meet Corbyn; Wollaston had said he was the 'lesser of two evils' and Sturgeon (by far the canniest politician in the UK) had called Swinson's position 'daft' and asked her to 'rethink' - Swinson backtracked and said she was willing to meet to discuss how their parties could work together.

https://www.ft.com/content/5d6fb7ca-bf83-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722

Later Thursday/early Friday, when the Grieve email came to light and Change UK decided their priority in 'changing how politics works' was to not talk to Jeremy Corbyn about anything, ever, the numbers clearly were against him. But Swinson's initial reaction was still badly judged and may have hardened and influenced those rejections.

It's all politics. As I've said several times, I don't mind any party leader seeking to get a little political gain out of any situation, even stopping No Deal, because that's how politics works. But Swinson revealed a bit of naivety and inexperience in exactly how she went about it, I think - and tried for a little too much political gain while offering the Labour leadership only humiliation. The fact that the Lib Dems have had a little surge in support in recent months doesn't alter the parliamentary mathematics. She has little over 6 or 7% of the MPs Labour has, and a third of the SNPs. A low base from which to try and project herself as kingmaker and leader of the opposition.

(I also get that she'd been set upon by Labour's attack chihuahuas, too - and don't agree with the attacks. But that's politics, too).
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24508 on: August 17, 2019, 12:10:00 pm »
thinking back to how he was when he lost that no confidence vote and refused to budge, he’d probably do what boris would try to do going off how the far left are with power and not wanting to give it up
And again no actual explanation of how that would work. So you accept he can't actually do it. There's no revolution being plotted.

Hanging onto power as leader of the Labour party - much as I regret it - was entirely different, because it was within the rules of the party.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24509 on: August 17, 2019, 01:21:42 pm »
Brexit: Tory MP Oliver Letwin rejects Corbyn as caretaker PM

Quote
Senior Tory MP Sir Oliver Letwin has said he does not support Jeremy Corbyn becoming a caretaker prime minister in a bid to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

But he backed discussions across the Commons to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.

Quote
Sir Oliver, who was among senior Tories who received a letter from Mr Corbyn about the plan, was asked about Mr Corbyn's proposal on BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"That appears to be his agenda. I have to say it is not one I personally share," he said.

"I don't think it's at all likely that a majority would be formed for that and I personally wouldn't want to vote for it. I wouldn't be able to support that, no."

Sir Oliver, a former cabinet minister, has led several attempts in Parliament to break the Brexit impasse and prevent a no-deal Brexit.

But he said he was "not very inclined" to help bring down the government in a no-confidence vote and would "rule it out" if it led to Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.

His comments came amid an ongoing row among MPs who oppose no deal, with Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson initially dismissing Mr Corbyn's plan as a "nonsense".

Mr Corbyn said he assumed everyone who wanted to avoid a no-deal Brexit - including the Liberal Democrats - would vote for the motion of no confidence that Labour intends to launch against the government.

"What we need is a government that is prepared to negotiate with the European Union so we don't have a crash-out on the 31st," he added.

Anna Soubry, leader of the Independent Group, said she would "not support nor facilitate any government led by Jeremy Corbyn".

But the head of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon, was among those applying pressure to Ms Swinson to change her stance.

The Liberal Democrat leader suggested Tory grandee Ken Clarke or former Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman could head a temporary government instead of Mr Corbyn.

Mr Clarke responded on Friday to say he was willing to lead a government of national unity to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Asked if Mr Clarke or Ms Harman could lead the country through a political crisis, Mr Corbyn said: "What we need is a respect for the electoral process that brought about the results from the last general election."

Sir Oliver suggested the majority of MPs did not want a no-deal Brexit, although he said he was "not terribly optimistic" they would reach an agreement.

The former minister, who has agreed to meet with Mr Corbyn to discuss plans to avoid a no deal, said opponents of the government's Brexit position needed to "talk a lot" and "talk frankly".

Meanwhile, fellow senior Tory MP Dominic Grieve said there was a "a considerable head of steam growing to try to make sure that no deal doesn't occur".

He also refused to back the Labour leader to be a caretaker prime minister, telling BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme it was "absolutely vital" any interim PM commanded "high levels of trust".

"I simply don't think that Jeremy Corbyn, as leader of the Labour Party - and particularly with his very strong views, which he's entitled to - is the right person," he said.

Although he said he himself would be willing to be a caretaker prime minister, he said, "there are others who are rather more suitable for doing it than I am".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49380280

In that case, instead of accepting his party's role as the official opposition for the 5 years following 2017, why has he been calling for a new election every 5 minutes?

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24510 on: August 17, 2019, 01:27:14 pm »
In that case, instead of accepting his party's role as the official opposition for the 5 years following 2017, why has he been calling for a new election every 5 minutes?
because he doesn’t accept the results of the election but the referendum result is sacrosanct

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24511 on: August 17, 2019, 01:48:49 pm »
View from the Tory side. Parris in The Times (paywall).

Spoiler
Quote
Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent,” wrote Edmund Burke in 1790, “pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field.”

Enough, then, of chinking Remainer grasshoppers like this columnist — or chinking Leavers like the prime minister’s adviser Dominic Cummings. Enough of Tory rebel resistance to a no-deal Brexit, admirable as it is; or the remnants of the brave little Independent Group. Enough, even, of the wedge of Liberal Democrat MPs and their leader Jo Swinson’s importunate chink this week.

Think, instead, about the cattle. In the one great issue now facing the nation, the grasshoppers are marginal unless the cattle are with them. For a no-deal Brexit to be blocked by parliament, the cattle are Labour MPs. For all our chinking, the so-called “rebel alliance” sits on the shoulders of this confused, demoralised and lumbering giant, elevated only by Labour’s arithmetic.

Remember them, the principal opposition? A distant memory perhaps? But those 247-odd souls, nearly 40 per cent of the total of voting MPs whose party had the support of almost 13 million voters two years ago, constitute the great bulk of potential opposition to no-deal. All calculations must rest on their intentions. Unless the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs stay rock solid behind whatever parliamentary procedure is chosen to stop Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson crashing Britain out of the EU, all is lost. Their solidarity remains a likelihood but not a certainty — and I’m worried that Jeremy Corbyn has this week been trying to muddy the waters.

I cannot dispel a suspicion that in the coming struggle Mr Corbyn, or more importantly the tight-knit group who help steer his leadership, have cloudy intentions. On Brexit they have a history of triangulating and this week, by steering the question away from no-deal and towards who should be prime minister, they’re at it again. Here are two questions to which I fear we cannot be sure of the answer. Do the key little Corbyn gang really want a general election right away? And do they really want to stop Britain leaving the European Union?

On the first question — do they want an election before October 31? — there must be reason for doubt. This would favour Nigel Frottage’s Brexit Party at the expense of both Labour and the Tories, and it’s hard to imagine the result being a working Labour majority. Were I Mr Corbyn my preferred election date would be this winter, after Britain had crashed out of the EU: a time of great national anxiety. Particularly if Mr Johnson had cheated constitutional convention by denying parliament a vote he might well be deeply unpopular by then. And Mr Frottage’s Brexit fox would have been shot.

To my second inquiry — do the Corbyn gang want to impede Brexit? — I reply that if I believed what the most powerful of Mr Corbyn’s team, Seumas Milne, believes, I’d see the European Union as a capitalist club and an impediment to socialist goals. Nor should we forget Mr Corbyn’s spooky silence in the campaign for Remain before the 2016 referendum: it spoke louder than words.

Has this long-term opponent of British EU membership really changed his mind? Has he relegated Mr Milne? Imagine for a moment that as Labour leader, and for fierce ideological reasons, you wanted Britain out but were realistic enough to know that the short to middle-term consequences would prove unpopular with voters. What wish would you be asking your fairy godmother to grant? That a Tory did the irreversible deed, surely, leaving you to build socialism on the ruins of what the Tories leave behind. And Mr Johnson is about to oblige.

So I place the Corbyn gang where I think their interests should place them: keen for the hardest possible Brexit to happen, anxious that Mr Johnson does it for them, and tiptoeing sometimes awkwardly between wanting to appear opposed to Tory plans and secretly trying not to trip him. In which case what does such a Labour leader do? Call for a confidence vote and a general election. And hope thereby (and apparently accidentally) to queer the pitch of the rebel alliance’s bid to take control of government business. In short, triangulate away from Brexit.

This would solve for me the riddle of why Mr Corbyn launched his no-confidence project in a manner careless of support from other parties. There was no consultation beforehand. Had I, in his place, really wanted to topple Mr Johnson in time for a pre-October 31 general election, I’d have made private approaches to potential allies, sounding them out, discussing what conditions they’d want to place on my hoped-for “interim” premiership, and doing my best to turn it into a collegiate, cross-party idea. Instead, the Labour leader has fired off what was essentially an open letter, taking (for example) Ms Swinson so by surprise that she foolishly forgot to feign interest in the proposal and instead called it out for the nonsense that, in just a couple of weeks, it would be.

It’s very possible Mr Corbyn will postpone a confidence vote in early September. The office of “interim prime minister” is unknown to our constitution; who can say what policy issues or political emergencies might arise during Mr Corbyn’s hoped-for few weeks in Downing Street. Weeks could become months; could he be trusted to set aside his personal politics? Other parties will also be wary of any ambition in the Labour leader to detoxify his present, rebarbative image by appearing in the guise of a national unity figure, even if only for a while.

It may, nevertheless, come to a confidence vote, more likely in October; and that might be too late. It is vital that the parliamentary Labour Party sees the promise of a confidence vote — but not yet — as the trap it would be. It must not let Mr Corbyn’s whips fool it: the critical time will be the first weeks of September. These are when the Commons itself could take charge of our European fate.

This columnist’s suspicion is that the bandits in temporary control of the Labour Party want Mr Johnson to crash Britain out of the EU, then crash his own premiership into the buffers of a general election. Mr Johnson appears to want this too. Parliament should beware of getting crushed in an eccentric embrace between a crank and a rascal, both trying to procrastinate.
[close]

Redmark's right about there being limits. Against that, it does rather have everyone over a barrel. "So we put Corbyn in power, yes, we knew he was totally unfit, and guess what? He proved to be totally unfit so we had to 'no confidence' him too! Vote us!"
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24512 on: August 17, 2019, 02:42:56 pm »
View from the Tory side. Parris in The Times (paywall).
Quote
Has this long-term opponent of British EU membership really changed his mind? Has he relegated Mr Milne? Imagine for a moment that as Labour leader, and for fierce ideological reasons, you wanted Britain out but were realistic enough to know that the short to middle-term consequences would prove unpopular with voters. What wish would you be asking your fairy godmother to grant? That a Tory did the irreversible deed, surely, leaving you to build socialism on the ruins of what the Tories leave behind. And Mr Johnson is about to oblige.
So. Matthew Paris has been reading my posts at RAWK again.
That's it, isn't it. Corbyn and his supporters imagine the rise - phoenix-like - of a great socialist republic from the ashes of Brexit. Being a Tory is bad enough, but fantasists (whatever their political leanings) are the real problem - you simply cannot reason with them.
Though, I am sure I am not the only one here to comment about Corbyn's true intentions all along. Corbyn is transparent. I do not understand why so many - even now - fail to see through him
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24513 on: August 17, 2019, 07:47:15 pm »
Haven’t been following the news much recently but the chances of us having a Government of ‘National Unity’ is fucking impossible. Of course being the summer, such stories can have traction. Will be consigned to the bin from September.

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24514 on: August 17, 2019, 08:17:55 pm »
And this is Yougov saying it. 

George Aylett
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George Aylett

🌍 Retweeted YouGov

Labour voters want

84% - PM Corbyn with second EU referendum
10% - no deal and no Corbyn

Lib Dem voters want

69% - PM Corbyn with referendum
18% - no deal and no Corbyn

Remain voters want

64% - PM Corbyn with referendum
23% - no deal and no Corbyn
Don't blame me I voted for Jeremy Corbyn!!

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24515 on: August 17, 2019, 08:29:42 pm »
And this is Yougov saying it. 

George Aylett
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‏Verified account @GeorgeAylett


George Aylett

🌍 Retweeted YouGov

Labour voters want

84% - PM Corbyn with second EU referendum
10% - no deal and no Corbyn

Lib Dem voters want

69% - PM Corbyn with referendum
18% - no deal and no Corbyn

Remain voters want

64% - PM Corbyn with referendum
23% - no deal and no Corbyn

Were Labour voters asked about "PM anyone other than Corbyn with referendum"?

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24516 on: August 17, 2019, 08:41:44 pm »
Here's what Aylett was trying to spin into a positive.

Quote
Almost half (48%) of Britons would prefer to see Britain leave the EU and Jeremy Corbyn not become Prime Minister. By contrast, only just over a third (35%) would rather the Labour leader move in to Number 10 and hold a second referendum. The remaining 17% are unsure either way.



Yougov

edit: if you want a comparison, same survey gives 49% saying 'no deal' would be a bad outcome and 38% saying it would be a good one. May give some idea of the scale of Labour's problems that 24% of Labour's 2017 vote would rather 'no deal' than Corbyn become PM and 14% aren't certain.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 09:06:00 pm by Zeb »
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24517 on: August 17, 2019, 08:52:10 pm »
And this is Yougov saying it. 

George Aylett
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‏Verified account @GeorgeAylett


George Aylett

🌍 Retweeted YouGov

Labour voters want

84% - PM Corbyn with second EU referendum
10% - no deal and no Corbyn

Lib Dem voters want

69% - PM Corbyn with referendum
18% - no deal and no Corbyn

Remain voters want

64% - PM Corbyn with referendum
23% - no deal and no Corbyn
It’s not the public that need convincing ... it’s a handful of Tory MPs
“Happiness can be found in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.”
“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24518 on: August 17, 2019, 09:09:07 pm »
The number of labour voters is drastically declining tho

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24519 on: August 17, 2019, 09:38:26 pm »

Here's something more tangible, if also unlikely. Plaid Cymru are asking for the Welsh Assembly and Westminster Parliament to be recalled.

PC link

Not sure of procedure at the Assembly, but Westminster requires the Government to request it of the Speaker. If it's Labour's Mark Drakeford who can recall the Senedd then doing it could provide leverage for Westminster's summer break to be cut short (due to return 3rd/4th September). Still. Unlikely.

Luciana Berger and Labour's Stephen Doughty leading the c.115 signatures on a letter demanding a Westminster recall. All the opposition party leaders are also on it bar Corbyn.

Spoiler


[close]

Slim to no chance of Johnson wanting to chat about his plans and risk giving MPs more time to legislate?
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."