Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2021-22

[Dr Stu-Pid]

Love this thread and is exactly where people who say 'we're only 3 points behind Chelsea' should be sent to.

We have a big opportunity next weekend to regain the points we just lost to Brighton.

But it's clear from this that Chelsea are not going away anytime soon. They are certainly the team to beat and we could do with them dropping some points sooner rather than later.

I think that the response from those 'people' would be that we are 10 games into a 38 game season and are only 3 points behind, and nothing about this thread changes those facts.  Chelsea gained 2 actual points on us this weekend, but 4 points in the APLT.  However, do you really think that Newcastle away this season is a Par 1 fixture?

I don't think that anyone thinks that Chelsea are going away anytime soon either, and most people have said that this would be a 3 horse race for the title and that it would be very close.  The PL is a 38 game season and no team is as good as their best 10 game run, or as bad as their worst 10 game run, and it is the other 18 games that tend to tell the real story.  We have no idea yet if this was Chelsea's best 10, worst 10, or somewhere in the middle, and ditto for us and City.  Chelsea have the advantage at the moment and should be favourites as a result, but lots of us simply aren't as eager to write off our chances as many people seem to be.  Maybe we'll be wrong and they'll be right, but there is a long way to go until we find out, and lots of unknowns (poor form, injuries, bad refereeing decisions, etc) which will yet play a part.

Last season after 10 games we were joint top with Spurs(!) and had a 3 point lead over City.  Ask Spurs how that worked out for them, and ditto for us obviously!

[Dr Stu-Pid]

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 9 points from our last 5 games, 13 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[Achilles Heel]

Yep.  Chelsea are clear favourites to win the league I'm sorry to say.  They had the most difficult opening set of fixtures on paper and have been remarkably consistent and efficient.

We had the best set of fixtures.  Dropped two at home to a ten man Chelsea team.  Two at home to Brighton (after having a two goal lead).  Two away to a newly promoted team.  That's simply not good enough if you want to win the league.

Still, results aside, I love watching this Liverpool side.  Chelsea bore the life out of me.

On another note, I really miss Gini.

I'd say City have had the hardest fixtures in APLT terms and definitely in actual terms.

Away games so far : Spurs, Leicester, Chelsea, Liverpool, Brighton and United to follow at the weekend.

Chelsea away games so far from the top half of the table: Liverpool, Arsenal & Spurs.

[killer-heels]

I'd say City have had the hardest fixtures in APLT terms and definitely in actual terms.

Away games so far : Spurs, Leicester, Chelsea, Liverpool, Brighton and United to follow at the weekend.

Chelsea away games so far from the top half of the table: Liverpool, Arsenal & Spurs.

Yeah City have had the hardest fixtures by far. Ours have been the easiest of the three so will have to see whether we regret not putting more points on the board of if the easier games helped us avoid defeats and build cohesion that helps us in the long run.

[Kashinoda]

Something tells me Daniel Levy didn't check the APLT before sacking poor Nuno.

[johnny74]

After such hard work in the APLT thread before the Utd game we were sloppy in here before Brighton.

Should have been in and made a prediction. Draw as much as we deserved.

It's West Ham next and they are totally solid. Not expecting anything from that game.

[farawayred]

Tomorrow is a very tricky game. The Hammers are flying high, top for is theirs to lose, and we are still high from the Atleti win. Odds are that we’re gonna be taught a hard lesson, I just hope it’s not as embarrassing as the one we gave United.

[Penfold78]

After such hard work in the APLT thread before the Utd game we were sloppy in here before Brighton.

Should have been in and made a prediction. Draw as much as we deserved.

It's West Ham next and they are totally solid. Not expecting anything from that game.

We’ll be lucky with a draw. Hopefully this won’t dent our EUROPA conference chances.

[Prof]

[Penfold78]

Cheers Prof. Quick work. Need to display a West Ham data series? Or too much faff for what might be a flash in the pan?

[Prof]

The result today stings, a lot more by the manner of it.  Under the lights, an upward-looking and confident opponent away from home, they get an early goal from nowhere as something for the crowd to get behind etc etc.

The truth is, games like this away from home happen.  They don't cost teams the title in isolation.  A look at the points won/lost summary is probably the best thing to focus on right now:



We've dropped the 6 points at home an average title winning team drops.  We need to win all our home games from here.  After that, we've got 13 more points to play with away from home to hit 90 points.

Well within our capability, but in particular, we need to be perfect at Anfield.

[Prof]

Cheers Prof. Quick work. Need to display a West Ham data series? Or too much faff for what might be a flash in the pan?

It'll take some time to set up, so I'll look around the turn of the year if they're still riding high.

[Samie]

Hi mate. 

But that is assuming the rest like Man City play at their level also? I don't think this season requires a 95 points season to win it or anything.

[Prof]

Hi mate. 

But that is assuming the rest like Man City play at their level also? I don't think this season requires a 95 points season to win it or anything.

Hi mate.  Long time since we crossed paths.

Chelsea are 1 over par and Man City level par for a 90 point season.  At this stage, it's still the benchmark to keep in sight in my view.

[killer-heels]

Hi mate.  Long time since we crossed paths.

Chelsea are 1 over par and Man City level par for a 90 point season.  At this stage, it's still the benchmark to keep in sight in my view.

At the moment it feels like we are playing like a high 70’s point team, which still would be a very good return following the lowish total we got last time around. Really would need to up the pace though.

[nerdster4]

With Chelsea being an absolute machine and having played city and Chelsea at home 3rd might be a more realistic . Obviously we’re capable but seem more capable of occasional destruction rather than consistent efficiency . Do fancy us in the cups

[redk84]

With Chelsea being an absolute machine and having played city and Chelsea at home 3rd might be a more realistic . Obviously we’re capable but seem more capable of occasional destruction rather than consistent efficiency . Do fancy us in the cups

I think 90 points is a pretty good target for this season...I don't imagine the winning team having many more points than that....low 90s wins or high 80s wins this one i feel

whatever it is we will need to improve as we are currently clocking 2ppg

What you said about Chelsea though seems to be a consensus but I am not so sure yet...just because they haven't had a lot of time together and not sure if they will be a consistent monster just yet

[johnny74]

A first ever defeat for the mockers (that I can remember). We didn't do enough. What has Moyes been drinking? Has he done a deal with someone?

Are they on for finishing above us?

[Dr Stu-Pid]

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 8 points from our last 5 games, 11 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[Prof]

[farawayred]

This is the time I find the APLT very useful, after a third of the season or so. Looking at the actual table, you wouldn't think that we are so far behind Chelsea in the APLT, and you wouldn't think that Spurs are so far ahead of Arsenal and United.

We need a strong run with wins, not draws, even if it comes at the cost of a loss (but not like WH).

[Dr Stu-Pid]

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 10 points from our last 5 games, 9 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[Dull Tools]

This is the time I find the APLT very useful, after a third of the season or so. Looking at the actual table, you wouldn't think that we are so far behind Chelsea in the APLT, and you wouldn't think that Spurs are so far ahead of Arsenal and United.

We need a strong run with wins, not draws, even if it comes at the cost of a loss (but not like WH).

I am surprised we are so far behind but we are conceding too many goals to push for the title at the moment.

We need to tighten up at the back over the next couple of months if we are going to push on.

[stonecold_jpm]

This is the time I find the APLT very useful, after a third of the season or so. Looking at the actual table, you wouldn't think that we are so far behind Chelsea in the APLT, and you wouldn't think that Spurs are so far ahead of Arsenal and United.

We need a strong run with wins, not draws, even if it comes at the cost of a loss (but not like WH).

The draws against City and Chelsea at home are the main reason we’re down on it. Keep our away form up and win the next few at home and it’ll soon change around. Goals scored and goal difference is our main indicator we’re not too far away and we will be pushing whoever leads the way in the run in.

[farawayred]

The draws against City and Chelsea at home are the main reason we’re down on it. Keep our away form up and win the next few at home and it’ll soon change around. Goals scored and goal difference is our main indicator we’re not too far away and we will be pushing whoever leads the way in the run in.

I'm not so sure that those two draws are the main problem. Had we won those 4pts, we'd be on par with City and 3 behind Chelsea. I'm most concerned about future results like the Brighton one.

[Prof]

[killer-heels]

This will look grim after Wednesday.

[stonecold_jpm]

Chelsea just don’t drop away points this season.

[kj999]

This will look grim after Wednesday.

why?

[farawayred]

why?

Because. She's right. There is no other way. If you read the history you'd know. Leave it there for now, please.

[KurtVerbose]

Because. She's right. There is no other way. If you read the history you'd know. Leave it there for now, please.

Never mind how the chart will look, just imagine how long our list of injuries will be after playing those thugs.

[Kashinoda]

why?

We have a straight forward +2 whilst Chelsea and City can't gain anything.

[Hij]

We have a straight forward +2 whilst Chelsea and City can't gain anything.

It's a banana skin at Goodison, a place we were screwed at last season. If we can come out with a +0 we should be happy.

[Ray K]

This will look grim after Wednesday.

Just hope we can stay ahead of United before the Christmas matches.

[Kashinoda]

It's a banana skin at Goodison, a place we were screwed at last season. If we can come out with a +0 we should be happy.

I was being facetious

I still wont be happy with +0 from this though, we've been quite shit there under Klopp much like at Old Trafford. We've put Old Trafford to bed it's time to see Goodison out.

[sminp]

We have a straight forward +2 whilst Chelsea and City can't gain anything.

City can gain 2 can’t they? Villa away?

[Kashinoda]

City can gain 2 can’t they? Villa away?

Yep my bad, I thought the away pars were for 1st-10th but it goes down to 13th.

[Hij]

I was being facetious

I still wont be happy with +0 from this though, we've been quite shit there under Klopp much like at Old Trafford. We've put Old Trafford to bed it's time to see Goodison out.

I think there is an element of people not wanting to put the mockers on by saying we'll definitely win on Wednesday

But I may have ruined it by spilling.

I actually think we should be looking to take 4 more wins into the Spurs game if we want to win the league.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 10 points from our last 5 games, 11 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[Dr Stu-Pid]

For those of you who look at the ALPT graph and worry, how about the below:



Chelsea have already dropped more points than expected for a title winning team at home, but still have one of their two toughest home games of the season to come (us).  City only have one more point to drop at home this season, but still have both of their two toughest home games to come (us and Chelsea).  We on the other hand have our two toughest games out of the way.

Now that doesn't mean any more or any less than any other set of data, and maybe Chelsea can keep us this excellent away form for the rest of the season, but it's something to consider and maybe feel a bit more optimistic about.