Topic: PL: Bford 3 v 3 Liv 26’ Pinnock 30’ Jota 54’ Mo Janelt ‘63 Jones 67’ Wissa 82’

[Pistolero]

Good game. Twat of a result. Need to sharpen  our killer instinct pronto.

[CHOPPER]

You can't score from every chance you get, we're scoring 3 goals a game for the most part. Even in our most successful seasons we've missed chances, but people have selective memories at times.

At this point we've scored more goals than any other side in the league, including City.

Garbage.

These are gilt edge chances and I don’t give a fuck abar city.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Garbage.

These are gilt edge chances and I don’t give a fuck abar city.

Garbage was our defending against a side that was just promoted, even more so given the quality of our defenders at the back. You may not care about City, but the facts remain the same

[PoetryInMotion]

Garbage.

These are gilt edge chances and I don’t give a fuck abar city.

You want us to score 20 goals with an xG of 2.5? Not happening. There were some good chances in the game, if we took all of them, it could've been like the Palace game of last season where we scored 7. But how often do teams score all their chances? Rare. That's his point, and that's far from garbage. It's based on reasoning and stats.

[PoetryInMotion]

Garbage was our defending against a side that was just promoted, even more so given the quality of our defenders at the back. You may not care about City, but the facts remain the same

Even our midfielders didn't really defend well. For some reason, it looked like Fabinho and Van Dijk were losing their headers, which they rarely do. Brentford had clearly prepared for this, so that meant having their players in the right areas to win second balls, that caused us all sorts of problems.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Even our midfielders didn't really defend well. For some reason, it looked like Fabinho and Van Dijk were losing their headers, which they rarely do. Brentford had clearly prepared for this, so that meant having their players in the right areas to win second balls, that caused us all sorts of problems.

Yes, 2nd balls, and 3rd balls in some instances, we were dominated in that regard, which is rare given our quality in that area.

Going into the match, we conceded 1 goal, and scored 14 goals. At the end of the match, we conceded 3 goals, and scored 3. One part of the team didn't do their job well enough given the opposition and given our quality. It happens its football, but when looking at the game, I'm not putting more blame on the forwards than I am on the defenders/midfielders, who got done 3 times with the same type of tactic.  And I even agree, that yes Mo should have scored at 3-2, but again the defending imo was the bigger issue on the day.

[RedG13]

Even our midfielders didn't really defend well. For some reason, it looked like Fabinho and Van Dijk were losing their headers, which they rarely do. Brentford had clearly prepared for this, so that meant having their players in the right areas to win second balls, that caused us all sorts of problems.

Virgil was 6 of 8 on aerial duels on saturday and Fabinho was 3/3.

[Crosby Nick]

I mentioned this yesterday but for their second goal one of the players causing the overload was Janson who had wandered up in open play. That’s pretty brave from their point of view. But who, if anyone should be picking him up there? Can’t really expect Jota to come back with him, Fabinho and the centre backs had other stuff to focus on. They took risks and got rewarded for it.

[PoetryInMotion]

Brentford have an xG of 7.2 + 1 Penalty - roughly around 7.9 goals in 6 games (8 goals). In comparison, Chelsea have 9.3 goals in 6 games (9 goals) and Man United have 9.9 + 1 Penalty = 10.6 goals in 6 games (10-11 goals). Attack wise, Brentford are only 1-2 goals short of a Top 4 spot.

In fact, Brentford are 3rd in the xGD table, behind Man City and us.

We won't face many sides as threatening as Brentford, despite what others think about them by generalizing a promoted side as a poor side or anything. 

[DonkeyWan]

I think there may be a bit of an overreaction to one result here. Liverpool are clear at the top by a point ahead of City and Chelsea. A draw was disappointing because a clear difference between Liverpool and the chasing pack would have given succour ahead of one of the most difficult games of the season against City.

However, few teams are going to play like Brentford (flood the midfield, long ball threatening the backline, bypass the centre and run in behind) and they played well, so that has to factored in here. Improvements can and should be made to the problems down the right (by encouraging key players to drop in and support the right side from the middle when necessary) and some work on the backline to tighten it up.

But I am not seeing the systemic or structural issues that some are pointing to on here. There are some worrying elements that COULD become systemic or structural, but for now at least I don't think the problems should lead to massive overhauling of the team... but in the winter window I think RB cover could become important. Part of the problem yesterday was TAA being brought back a touch too quickly from illness, IMO>

[deFacto please, you bastards]

I think there may be a bit of an overreaction to one result here. Liverpool are clear at the top by a point ahead of City and Chelsea. A draw was disappointing because a clear difference between Liverpool and the chasing pack would have given succour ahead of one of the most difficult games of the season against City.

However, few teams are going to play like Brentford (flood the midfield, long ball threatening the backline, bypass the centre and run in behind) and they played well, so that has to factored in here. Improvements can and should be made to the problems down the right (by encouraging key players to drop in and support the right side from the middle when necessary) and some work on the backline to tighten it up.

But I am not seeing the systemic or structural issues that some are pointing to on here. There are some worrying elements that COULD become systemic or structural, but for now at least I don't think the problems should lead to massive overhauling of the team... but in the winter window I think RB cover could become important. Part of the problem yesterday was TAA being brought back a touch too quickly from illness, IMO>

I agree. I don't think the game showed that we will have problems down the line because of personnel, we just didn't play to the level required in certain parts of the pitch.

[PoetryInMotion]

Virgil was 6 of 8 on aerial duels on saturday and Fabinho was 3/3.

That's cool then. For some reason it felt like Toney was winning a lot of them.

Just checked, Toney won 9 headers, so he must've gotten around Fabinho and our defense. Also, it was not the direct header that was the problem, it was the second and third ball around the header that caused the problem.

[jambutty]

at no point in that game are we ever more than 1 goal ahead. If we score one of the 2 sitters missed at 3-2, it’s game over.

I can’t remember the last time we went 2 goals ahead and didn’t win, I can only think of Salzburg and Chelsea at home in the last 3 seasons (including this one) where we’ve gone 2 goals or more ahead and had that advantage pulled back (even though we eventually win the games).

We may well have scored more than City but what we need to be trying to reduce is the gap between going 1 goal ahead and going 2, for us we’re in the fortunate position that we don’t do what a lot of sides do(and actually what we used to be a bit guilty of) and easing off at 1-0

Scoring that 2nd goal is our Achilles.

[CHOPPER]

You want us to score 20 goals with an xG of 2.5? Not happening. There were some good chances in the game, if we took all of them, it could've been like the Palace game of last season where we scored 7. But how often do teams score all their chances? Rare. That's his point, and that's far from garbage. It's based on reasoning and stats.

xGEC’s we’re 3 and of those xGEC’s, 2 were at a probability of 8.76856 and 8.83426, respectively with the 3rd at an eye watering 9.1865.
Evidence enough to demonstrate the fact we should not have been beaten to xGEC’s ratings and our xGEC’s were of a level that fell into the PIITFN criteria.
Sure we conceded, but Brentford had 2 xGEC’s and were successful in 200% of those at less xGEC’s factors of 7.9856 and 8.0583.

The numbers don’t lie, surely you can see this.

[RayPhilAlan]

xGEC’s we’re 3 and of those xGEC’s, 2 were at a probability of 8.76856 and 8.83426, respectively with the 3rd at an eye watering 9.1865.
Evidence enough to demonstrate the fact we should not have been beaten to xGEC’s ratings and our xGEC’s were of a level that fell into the PIITFN criteria.
Sure we conceded, but Brentford had 2 xGEC’s and were successful in 200% of those at less xGEC’s factors of 7.9856 and 8.0583.

The numbers don’t lie, surely you can see this.

Poetry in Motion said the lack of taking all the gilt-edged chances was normal based on reasoning and stats, and, as such, deserved your response.

I'd have put it differently: our lack of taking all the gilt-edged chances is normal based on decades of watching football. It just doesn't happen Chopper. Everyone misses sitters. It's not just Raheem Sterling. Torres, Suarez, Owen, even Rushie missed with shots they seemed certain to score.

I was much more concerned about that 2v1 and 3v1 against Trent at the back post that Brentford managed for their 2nd and 3rd goals. Disappointing we didn't learn after the first time it happened. Whose job is that to sort out? Trent's? Virgil's? Jurgen's? Hendo's?

[LiamG]

Part of the problem yesterday was TAA being brought back a touch too quickly from illness, IMO>

I don't think that had anything to do with it, he didnt look rusty, he was just left exposed to 3 of their players on two occasions(i think) by the rest of our team

[killer-heels]

However, few teams are going to play like Brentford (flood the midfield, long ball threatening the backline, bypass the centre and run in behind) and they played well, so that has to factored in here. Improvements can and should be made to the problems down the right (by encouraging key players to drop in and support the right side from the middle when necessary) and some work on the backline to tighten it up.

A few will. Villa will for one.

[PoetryInMotion]

Poetry in Motion said the lack of taking all the gilt-edged chances was normal based on reasoning and stats, and, as such, deserved your response.

I'd have put it differently: our lack of taking all the gilt-edged chances is normal based on decades of watching football. It just doesn't happen Chopper. Everyone misses sitters. It's not just Raheem Sterling. Torres, Suarez, Owen, even Rushie missed with shots they seemed certain to score.

I was much more concerned about that 2v1 and 3v1 against Trent at the back post that Brentford managed for their 2nd and 3rd goals. Disappointing we didn't learn after the first time it happened. Whose job is that to sort out? Trent's? Virgil's? Jurgen's? Hendo's?

And this is not reasoning?

[PoetryInMotion]

xGEC’s we’re 3 and of those xGEC’s, 2 were at a probability of 8.76856 and 8.83426, respectively with the 3rd at an eye watering 9.1865.
Evidence enough to demonstrate the fact we should not have been beaten to xGEC’s ratings and our xGEC’s were of a level that fell into the PIITFN criteria.
Sure we conceded, but Brentford had 2 xGEC’s and were successful in 200% of those at less xGEC’s factors of 7.9856 and 8.0583.

The numbers don’t lie, surely you can see this.

 

[Ghost Town]

xPITA is always high on here after dropped points, as is xBW and xMoaningFannies. Someone will have a radar and a Gantt chart for it

[keyop]

In 19/20 (up to the lockdown/sealing the title) we mastered the knack of seeing out a 1-0 or 1 goal win, although the opposition did often miss good late chances.

Since then we usually always need the 2 goal cushion or we'll just get punished. Norwich/Leeds/Burnley/Palace we did get it and won comfortably in the end. If we don't get the 2 goal cushion the sucker punch always arrives. Even in the last 10 games last season the ones we dropped points in were games where we were seeing out a 1-0 (Leeds/Newcastle) and conceded near the end.

You've chosen literally the best winning streak in our club's history, and then compared it to what happened after.

The reality is that after winning 26 of our first 27 that season, we had a 3 month lockdown, a global pandemic, no crowds, then the worst injury-hit season we've ever seen.

Since we found our consistency under Klopp, it's clear that there are very distinct periods of time that all need context before we can draw any conclusions:

2018/19: a 97 point season and a European cup
2019/20: a 99 point season and the Premier League title
2020/21: title winning form until Christmas, when we were top of the league. Then title winning form from early March, with 26 points out of 30 to finish 3rd despite half our best players injured or playing out of position.

Over 3 full seasons, the two periods of inconsistent form are for two key reasons.

1. The drop-off after lockdown - in March 2020 the world had just gone to shit, we had the title virtually in the bag, and after 78 points from a possible 81, it was always going to be difficult to keep that consistency - especially in empty stadiums.

2. The poor run from late December 2020 through to early March 2021 - injuries, more injuries, players out of position, no senior CB's, empty stadiums, plus all the injuries. Also, did I mention the injuries?

I don't think it's fair to say ' we usually always need a 2 goal cushion or we'll get punished', and then compare that to the best ever winning streak in our history (when we had a fully fit squad).

Since early March this year, we're unbeaten in 16 games, winning 12 and drawing 4. This run includes four 2-0 wins and five 3-0 wins. That's title winning form, and plenty of 2 goal cushions. A 3-3 draw against a newly promoted side doesn't change any of that.

[RayPhilAlan]

And this is not reasoning?

It's a different sort of reasoning... 

[harleydanger]

I mentioned this yesterday but for their second goal one of the players causing the overload was Janson who had wandered up in open play. That’s pretty brave from their point of view. But who, if anyone should be picking him up there? Can’t really expect Jota to come back with him, Fabinho and the centre backs had other stuff to focus on. They took risks and got rewarded for it.

[PoetryInMotion]

The left most three players and right most three players are engaged, the middle three are ball-watching.

[jckliew]

The left most three players and right most three players are engaged, the middle three are ball-watching.

including Virgil. Gulp*

[killer-heels]

Crazy image that. Absolutely crazy. If only it were a home game and the crowd could have shouted “They are behind you”, panto style.

[RedG13]

That's cool then. For some reason it felt like Toney was winning a lot of them.

Just checked, Toney won 9 headers, so he must've gotten around Fabinho and our defense. Also, it was not the direct header that was the problem, it was the second and third ball around the header that caused the problem.

He won them on Matip for the most part. Matip heading was bad but they also have to do better on the 2nd and 3rd ball.

[Knight]

That's cool then. For some reason it felt like Toney was winning a lot of them.

Just checked, Toney won 9 headers, so he must've gotten around Fabinho and our defense. Also, it was not the direct header that was the problem, it was the second and third ball around the header that caused the problem.

Van Dijk wasn’t an issue mostly. Matip though barely won a header all game. He was absolutely demolished. I felt a bit foolish because I confidently stated pre match that the ‘2nd best CB in the country’ wouldn’t give him any joy. In reality I’ve rarely a seen a CB so outmatched by a forward.

[mrantarctica]

LOL. Next we'll be accused of being bus parkers. 10 players in and around our box to try to defend that cross. They'll have to look at that situation closely. Very poor positioning in general and we did get it badly wrong there. Easily sorted on the training field however.