Topic: Álisson Ramsés Becker

[Peabee]

Just over performance v reversion to the mean is all. Statisticians invoking the Gods.

Alisson over performs v XGA, Liverpool give up very few chances of any quality, let alone high quality... and the worry was always for Dan Kennett that it’s revert to the mean and scupper our chances to some extent.

Nothing more complicated than that really.

I understand, but I’m just not in agreement that Alisson’s goals conceded has to revert to xG. He may well revert to the mean, but that will be because he’s not quite as good as the current stats show.  Then again, Alisson may outperform xG because he’s a better quality shot stopper than the ‘mean’.

Messi outperforms xG by 20% I read somewhere, which is because he is a higher quality player. Morati has a high xG but has been poor at finishing. The variables involved in xG don’t take into account the quality of player/keeper. Also, each chance is independent of the next chance (usually - unless it’s in the same move) so like tossing a coin, if you get a heads that doesn’t make the next toss more likely to be tails.

[PhaseOfPlay]

My problem with the "mean" is a) which mean is he regressing to (his own mean, or the overall mean), and b) which methods are being used to calculate the mean (total shots, or shots on target?)

[Bobinhood]

The mean reverts to Allison.

Any questions? Mail them on a postcard c/o Napoli Europa League Campaign, backwoods Romania road trip, postcode unassigned.

[royhendo]

I’m just not in agreement that Alisson’s goals conceded has to revert to xG.

But of course nobody said that. I said statisticians were invoking the Gods because they were worrying the numbers wouldn't remain strong. One game passes (which we still won) and we concede three goals that adjust the numbers to a level they're more comfortable with. The statisticians emit a sigh of relief cos they feel like the Gods were listening. But of course stats just describe things observed in the world, often in an imperfect way, so really it's just another way of crossing your fingers. Alisson may suddenly become a human capable of being a goal shaped wall while away on warm weather training and we'll never concede a goal again. We'll lose something in our build up play, of course, but hey - you win some you lose some.

The same statisticians were, however, the same people preaching that Salah, thirteen games into the league campaign, was not in fact in a slump as the media would have had us believe, but was in fact steadily improving in his underlying performance indicators (chance quality, chance volume, XG, and so forth). Turns out they were right about him.

[Redcap]

I understand, but I’m just not in agreement that Alisson’s goals conceded has to revert to xG. He may well revert to the mean, but that will be because he’s not quite as good as the current stats show.  Then again, Alisson may outperform xG because he’s a better quality shot stopper than the ‘mean’.

Messi outperforms xG by 20% I read somewhere, which is because he is a higher quality player. Morati has a high xG but has been poor at finishing. The variables involved in xG don’t take into account the quality of player/keeper. Also, each chance is independent of the next chance (usually - unless it’s in the same move) so like tossing a coin, if you get a heads that doesn’t make the next toss more likely to be tails.

Pretty much this.

Outperforming XG is where the law of averages meets finishing skill. Many players will regress to the mean, but the mean is composed of people of different levels of ability. Allison is a better player than many others, and therefore will logically outperform XG.

[ElstonGunn]

No one reasonable would claim Alisson was likely to revert all the way to the general mean. It’s quite clear (whether you like numbers or not) that he’s a well above average shot stopper. All Dan was suggesting is that his first half performance was not merely excellent, but essentially godlike. We’d probably expect him to be merely excellent in the second half (and indeed we already saw him give up three goals from three shots on target on saturday).

[TepidT2O]

He might revert to HIS mean rather than the league mean.

Of course his mean is yet to be determined as it is too soon to say what it is, so we won’t know for a bit.

Good eh?

[harleydanger]

exactly.

People talk about it like it’s a deck of cards. Every keepers ‘mean’ is different to every other keepers. That’s why xGa is used to rate keepers, but then people say it’s an anomaly when a keeper is performing well like he’s just on a heater

[afc tukrish]

He might revert to HIS mean rather than the league mean.

Of course his mean is yet to be determined as it is too soon to say what it is, so we won’t know for a bit.

Good eh?

I see what you mean...

[Peabee]

I see what you mean...

Don’t be mean.

[afc tukrish]

Don’t be mean.

Didn't mean to demean, not what I meant...

[gray19lfc]

To the tune of Dodgy - Staying Out For the Summer
https://youtu.be/7_x-dH6D9k0?t=12

His name is Alisson Becker
He makes saves in the rain
Our Brazilian keeper
Keeps a clean sheet again

[TepidT2O]

[King Kenny 7]

Full concentration needed tonight in pursuit of a clean sheet, the error against these'ns away is still fresh in the memory but we got away with it.


A clean sheet please. 

[Upanishad]

Had a couple of moments tonight which he got away with. Could do without any wobbles at the back, it's going to be hard enough as it is.

[rushyman]

Had a couple of moments tonight which he got away with. Could do without any wobbles at the back, it's going to be hard enough as it is.

Also ran out of goal twice to stop them being in saved a point blank deflection

[RideTheWalrus]

Eh, I forgive him mostly for a few wonky kicks, the ball held up a bit on the frost.

[johnj147]

needs to stop fannying about at back. could easily of cost us two goals  tonight

[jillcwhomever]

needs to stop fannying about at back. could easily of cost us two goals  tonight

It was a direct tactic of Puel's they were targeting him whenever we passed back to him. Sometimes our players do that too much.

[Son of Spion]

needs to stop fannying about at back. could easily of cost us two goals  tonight

Particularly on a night like tonight when it is so difficult to weight the pass correctly. The ball was often slowing up in the slush. Any intelligent attacker would know to be right onto any pass back to the keeper in those conditions because chances are the 'keeper could get caught out as the ball slows on the surface. It almost paid off for Leicester tonight, too. In conditions like this, you get rid. No messing about at all. I hate us pissing about with it at the back at the best of times, but tonight was simply inviting trouble.

[PhaseOfPlay]

needs to stop fannying about at back. could easily of cost us two goals  tonight

He plays how Klopp tells him to play, though.

[didi shamone]

He plays how Klopp tells him to play, though.

Klopp tells him to fanny? 
I know what you mean though seriously. His fannying starts our attacks. There will be the odd blooper but its a high risk high reward mindset.

[ChrisLFCKOP]

He plays how Klopp tells him to play, though.

Thats fine but recognise the condition of the pitch and adapt...its not fucking rocket science.

The pitch caused us issue all night, probably would have been ok is it had not be for the last heavy snow, sleet & hail shower 30 mins before kick off.

[dudleyred]

He was excellent overall

Without him we lose that

Great save second half from point blank range and a couple of good sweeper keeper moments

[jepovic]

Pitch was poor, but it's no excuse. It's not possible to play exactly the same way in these conditions, and Becker has to adapt. Three turnovers (?) in one game is far too much.

[him_15]

Could have done nothing with that goal to be honest, and made a wonderful save as well.

[S]

Pitch was poor, but it's no excuse. It's not possible to play exactly the same way in these conditions, and Becker has to adapt. Three turnovers (?) in one game is far too much.

Exactly, the first scare should have been enough warning.

Literally the only fault I can find with him though.

[FlashGordon]

That save from Firmino could be worth a lot by the time May comes around.

[Fernando_Torres_Was_Good]

In the second half there was a moment when Leicester were pressing very high up the pitch, Vardy was closing in on Alisson, and Hendo was also being closed down. Rather than just boot the ball clear, giving our defence a few seconds to re-organise, Alisson chipped the ball straight to Hendo - who was playing out of position - who immediately lost the ball. That irritated me. Feel like he doesn't possess the game intelligence just yet to properly assess the risks of his passes sometimes, and if he doesn't sharpen up - he will make a few embarrassing mistakes soon.

Not trying to pile on him or anything. I still love him, and think he'll be our keeper for the next 6/7 years, but I do hope he starts to assess risks in a more intelligent way moving forwards.

[Brian Blessed]

It was a direct tactic of Puel's they were targeting him whenever we passed back to him. Sometimes our players do that too much.

Understandable tactic as they got a goal from that last time.

[DelTrotter]

In the second half there was a moment when Leicester were pressing very high up the pitch, Vardy was closing in on Alisson, and Hendo was also being closed down. Rather than just boot the ball clear, giving our defence a few seconds to re-organise, Alisson chipped the ball straight to Hendo - who was playing out of position - who immediately lost the ball. That irritated me. Feel like he doesn't possess the game intelligence just yet to properly assess the risks of his passes sometimes, and if he doesn't sharpen up - he will make a few embarrassing mistakes soon.

Not trying to pile on him or anything. I still love him, and think he'll be our keeper for the next 6/7 years, but I do hope he starts to assess risks in a more intelligent way moving forwards.

Massive overreaction, if you play the ball out at the back there's going to be times when a pass or two goes wrong or there's a stupid decision. He's started fuck knows how many goals for us this season, some in extremely tight spots like the Man Utd game where thankfully he didn't just punt it up field.

[FlashGordon]

Massive overreaction, if you play the ball out at the back there's going to be times when a pass or two goes wrong or there's a stupid decision. He's started fuck knows how many goals for us this season, some in extremely tight spots like the Man Utd game where thankfully he didn't just punt it up field.

It was actually a great chipped ball with his bad leg as well, I loved it to be honest 

[jillcwhomever]

Understandable tactic as they got a goal from that last time.

Yes and in a way I'm surprised other teams don't do the same as it is an affective tactic if done properly. It's typical of Puel's approach that he would highlight that and get Leicester to use it directly.

[blacksun]

Yes and in a way I'm surprised other teams don't do the same as it is an affective tactic if done properly. It's typical of Puel's approach that he would highlight that and get Leicester to use it directly.

Its also a risk as a couple players move out of position to go close him down he plays a pass and we are off with 2 maybe 3 players out of the game.

[jillcwhomever]

Its also a risk as a couple players move out of position to go close him down he plays a pass and we are off with 2 maybe 3 players out of the game.

True, but a coach like Puel has his systems and you could tell his players were drilled to be in certain places at certain times. He's a very tactical coach overall, don't especially enjoy his style of play but it is effective.

[AndyMuller]

Boss when he ran out of his area when they were on the counter, won the ball then sprayed a great pass down the right to Salah.

[lobsterboy]

We've gone from Mignolet and Karius to possibly the best keeper in the league.
If he misses a few kicks now and then or makes the odd mistake I'm not arsed.
He's won us more points than he's lost us and he's kept us in the CL.
He's boss.

And his arms are long enough..

[88_RED]

He's the best keeper we have had in decades..
He's been phenomenal so far this season and one of the main reasons why we are top of the league..
The very best of keepers will make the odd mistake over the course or a season.. And that's all he's made, the odd mistake..

So everyone just needs to chill the fuck out and relax.. 

[LFCEmpire]

We've gone from Mignolet and Karius to possibly the best keeper in the league.
If he misses a few kicks now and then or makes the odd mistake I'm not arsed.
He's won us more points than he's lost us and he's kept us in the CL.
He's boss.

And his arms are long enough..

[KurtVerbose]

How much experience do you think he's had with snow?