Really excited about this season. A new man at the helm with a new style.
Here we are on the eve of the season and I thought it would be of interest to list what Swansea City achieved under Brendan Rodgers last season and what we have to do better than Swansea did to achieve the coveted prize.
Swansea's record was as follows:
Overall
P38 W12 D11 L15 PTS47
Home
W8 D7 L4
Away
W4 D4 L11
His team at Swansea was in the main (PL starts in brackets):
GK Vorm (36)
RB Rangel (32)
LB Taylor (35)
CB Williams (36)
CB Caulker (25)
MC Britton (34)
MC Allen (18)
MC Siggurdson (16)
RW Dyer (28)
LW Sinclair (34)
ST Graham (31)
As I write, Liverpool's expected First 11 is this:
GK Reina
RB Johnson
LB Enrique
CB Skrtel
CB Agger
MC Lucas
MC Allen
MC Gerrard
RW Downing
LW Borini
ST Suarez
On paper, a massive difference in class to those starting 11's.
To win the league last season, took 89 points. A massive 42 points difference from what Swansea achieved.
To finish 4th last season and potentially qualify for the megabucks in Europe required 69 points. A 22 point differential.
Can Liverpool's far more classy squad acquire those extra 22 points and finish Top 4?
Swansea were earning roughly 1.24 points per game to finish 11th and five points behind Liverpool in 8th. Man City were earning 2.34 points per game to win the title. Spurs were earning 1.82 points per game to finish 4th and then gazumped for a Champions League place.
Therefore to speculatively finish in the top 4, Liverpool must earn approximately 0.6 pts per game better than Swansea did last season.
Swansea's record ............Home result first, away result second
Man City WL
Man Utd LL
Arsenal WL
Tottenham XL
Newcastle LX
Chelsea XL
Everton LL
Liverpool WX
Fulham WW
WBA WW
Norwich LL
Sunderland XL
Stoke WL
Wigan XW
A Villa XW
QPR XL
Bolton WX
Blackburn WL
Wolves XX
V Top 6 teams = W2 X3 L7 (9 pts from 12 games) (0.75 pts per game)
V Middle 8 teams W6 X2 L6 (20 points from 14 games) (1.43 pts per game)
V Bottom 6 Teams = W4 X6 L2 (18 points from 12 games) (1.5 pts per game)
Conclusion
Assuming that the table this year will be much the same as last year.
Assuming that BR's style of football for Swansea will continue at Liverpool.
Assuming that Liverpool have a much higher quality of player than Swansea had last year.
For a Top 4 place and an improvement of 0.6 pts per game, Liverpool must look to achieve these results:
V Top 6 - W4 X4 L4 - 16 pts (12 games = 1.33 pts per game)Man City
H-X A-X Man Utd
H-L A-LArsenal
H-L A-X Tottenham
H-W A-LNewcastle
H-X A-W Chelsea
H -X A-XV Middle 8 - W8 X4 L2 - 28 pts (14 games = 2 pts per game)Everton
H-X A-XFulham
H-W A-W WBA
H-L A-LSwansea
H-W A-XNorwich
H-W A-W Sunderland
H-W A-X Stoke
H-X A-LV Bottom 6 - W8 X4 L0 - 28 pts (12 games = 2.33 pts per game)Wigan
H-W A-WA Villa
H-L A-WQPR
H-W A-WReading
H-W A-XSouthampton
H-W A-LWest Ham
H- X A-WThis would give Liverpool 72 points and an expected 3rd or 4th place in the premiership and the coveted cash prize.
Possible?
With a determination within the side and a little luck along the way - definitely!
PS
72 points is not necessarily the target. See below4th position pts required in 20 team premierships2013 73 pts 21 wins
2012 69 pts 20 wins
2011 68 pts 19 wins
2010 70 pts 21 wins
2009 72 pts 20 wins
2008 76 pts 21 wins
2007 68 pts 19 wins
2006 67 pts 20 wins
2005 61 pts 18 wins
2004 60 pts 16 wins
2003 67 pts 19 wins
2002 71 pts 21 wins
2001 68 pts 20 wins
2000 67 pts 19 wins
1999 67 pts 18 wins
1998 63 pts 20 wins
1997 68 pts 19 wins
1996 63 pts 18 wins