Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21  (Read 12130 times)

Offline JP-65

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Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« on: October 23, 2020, 06:08:13 pm »
I'll start this up soon, thought this was very interesting though (via BassTunedToRed)

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/importance-of-first-six-games-in-soccer/J3R2FJ6DY6MBZVW2

“The winner of the Premier League has been outside the top four after six games on only three occasions since 1995/96.”

Offline campioni

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 10:12:16 pm »
Nice one JP, always an interesting thread to keep an eye on.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2020, 02:39:39 pm »
Today's match is the first one, for us, that we've played someone who's dropped points this season!

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2020, 05:11:22 pm »
Match 8 update:

I'll post the remainder once I figure out how to get then below the max 200KB size.  I've upgrade my Mac OS & it's saving them as larger files.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2020, 05:25:46 pm »
The rest:

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2020, 12:58:01 pm »
I'll start this up soon, thought this was very interesting though (via BassTunedToRed)

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/importance-of-first-six-games-in-soccer/J3R2FJ6DY6MBZVW2

“The winner of the Premier League has been outside the top four after six games on only three occasions since 1995/96.”

Came to comment here to sign in for another season and I see I'm mentioned at the top!

Yeah that's quite weird about being in the top four after only six matches, you'd think that would be too early to make much difference but apparently not. If it happens again then it's between Liverpool, Everton, Villa and Leicester.... I know who my money would be on  ;)

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2020, 01:18:54 pm »
Came to comment here to sign in for another season and I see I'm mentioned at the top!

Yeah that's quite weird about being in the top four after only six matches, you'd think that would be too early to make much difference but apparently not. If it happens again then it's between Liverpool, Everton, Villa and Leicester.... I know who my money would be on  ;)

That's a big thumbs up!

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2020, 01:20:42 pm »
Another from Beez

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2020, 01:22:01 pm »
Match 9 update:

Offline dudleyred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2020, 01:29:48 pm »
JP aren't we -2 on equivalent fixtures?

Gained one at City but lost three at villa?

Offline RooiBefok

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2020, 01:43:35 pm »
JP aren't we -2 on equivalent fixtures?

Gained one at City but lost three at villa?

Correct.  We are on -2 to date on Equivalent Fixtures.





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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2020, 04:01:02 pm »
JP aren't we -2 on equivalent fixtures?

Gained one at City but lost three at villa?

We are DR, brain fade by me, I'll correct it next update, & thnx

Offline dudleyred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2020, 06:22:00 pm »
We are DR, brain fade by me, I'll correct it next update, & thnx

No drama. Cheers

Thanks for pulling the update together. One of my favourite threads this

« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 06:27:25 pm by dudleyred »

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #13 on: December 1, 2020, 11:51:30 am »
Match 10 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #14 on: December 1, 2020, 11:56:47 am »
The rest:

Offline dudleyred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #15 on: December 1, 2020, 12:04:18 pm »
Cheers JP. Top stuff

Offline campioni

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #16 on: December 1, 2020, 12:29:10 pm »
The rest:

What I take from this is anyone who gets to 90 points wins the league, probably quite comfortably. I can't see two sides going at close to 2.5 ppg this season. A mid 80's points total looks more realistic to me.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #17 on: December 1, 2020, 12:53:38 pm »
What I take from this is anyone who gets to 90 points wins the league, probably quite comfortably. I can't see two sides going at close to 2.5 ppg this season. A mid 80's points total looks more realistic to me.

I'd be shocked if anyone gets close to 90 this season - even Liverpool and Spurs have to go at 94 point pace for the rest of the season to get there, which seems hugely unlikely.

Offline Lofty Ambitions

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #18 on: December 1, 2020, 01:05:25 pm »
Cheers JP. Top stuff
+1


I'd be shocked if anyone gets close to 90 this season - even Liverpool and Spurs have to go at 94 point pace for the rest of the season to get there, which seems hugely unlikely.
And a +1 for this one as well. What a strange season, seems UEFA and FA are really trying to ensure there's not one player standing come May...
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #19 on: December 1, 2020, 02:07:55 pm »
I'd be shocked if anyone gets close to 90 this season - even Liverpool and Spurs have to go at 94 point pace for the rest of the season to get there, which seems hugely unlikely.

Something in the low 80's may win it this season, like Leicester's 15/16 Title @ 81 points (they were at 19 points after 10 that season)

Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #20 on: December 1, 2020, 02:40:46 pm »
With us on 2.10 ppg, 19 or 20 wins have to be the target out of the remaining games with something like 12 out of 14 coming at Anfield?

85 points - requires 2.29
20 wins 4 draws 4 loses
19 wins 7 draws 2 loses
18 wins 10 draws 0 loses

84 points - requires 2.25
20 wins 3 draws 5 loses
19 wins 6 draws 3 loses
18 wins 9 draws 1 loss

83 points - requires 2.21
20 wins 2 draws 6 loses
19 wins 5 draws 4 loses
18 wins 8 draws 2 loses

82 points - requires 2.18
20 wins 1 draw 7 loses
19 wins 4 draws 5 loses
18 wins 7 draws 3 loses

81 points - requires 2.14
20 wins 0 draw 8 loses
19 wins 3 draws 6 loses
18 wins 6 draws 4 loses
« Last Edit: December 1, 2020, 02:50:43 pm by stonecold_jpm »

Offline farawayred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #21 on: December 2, 2020, 02:00:11 am »
Echoing the thanks, JP-65!

Interesting to see that the current 2.1ppg for the table leaders would put you borderline (give or take) in the top four in the last few seasons. Continuing with 2.1ppg would put the leader on 80 points at the end of the season, which is very low. Not the lowest record, but according to Squaka, only three times champions had less that 80 points (75 pts United 96/97, 78 pts Arse 97/98, and 79 pts United 98/99). Then United was on 80 pts in 2000/01 and 2010/11. So, in the last 20 years only once a team finished on 80 points...
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Offline latortuga

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #22 on: December 2, 2020, 06:03:00 am »
I keep hearing and even the commentators said it during the game, that we haven't played any more games to this point than last season?  Is this true?  Does anyone have the stats on this? 

Offline kavah

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #23 on: December 2, 2020, 06:44:49 am »
^ the season started a month earlier last year  and the international breaks were shorter (three game breaks this year). The players have played far more minutes in a more compressed period

The number of games thing is a red herring. Klopp’s point is about many games with no break and the TV companies (BT) moving our games (and others in Europe) to the 12:30 on Saturday. After a Wednesday night game, which is brutal. (Especially la Liga and the other leagues don’t do that, in fact they do the opposite and try and help the teams competing in Europe as much as they can). 

Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #24 on: December 2, 2020, 06:48:06 am »
I keep hearing and even the commentators said it during the game, that we haven't played any more games to this point than last season?  Is this true?  Does anyone have the stats on this? 

Normally we'd start in August and hit 10 league games played at the end of October and 20/21 by the end of December.
This season we started in September, have hit 10 games now at the end of November and 16 by the end of December.
We normally play 6/7 games in December as well as 1/2 European games so the reality is it is no different fixture wise except the players didn't have a longer summer break and pre season was shorter so they aren't fully conditioned for it.
The 4 games to catch up on to pack it all in to finish by May are 2 extra midweeks in the middle of January (is it only 1 leg LC semi now that helps free these weeks?), season ending 1 week later 23rd May than usual and that then gives 1 extra midweek free in the middle of May after the European semis are done.
So we've basically got two regular December style crammed months of fixtures in both December and January!  ::) God help us! The under 9s will be on standby!
« Last Edit: December 2, 2020, 07:00:41 am by stonecold_jpm »

Offline latortuga

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #25 on: December 2, 2020, 10:49:01 am »
Okay, thanks guys, really appreciate the detailed responses.  ;)

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #26 on: December 2, 2020, 01:00:21 pm »
Dale Johnson
@DaleJohnsonESPN
·
32m
Analysis of how margin of error could have affected all 16 VAR offside decisions in the Prem.

- 5 of 14 disallowed count
- Of the 5, 3 are Liverpool
- Three could have changed result (2 Liverpool)
- Only goal allowed would be ruled out on "Umpire's Call"

A thread.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #27 on: December 2, 2020, 01:02:37 pm »
Dale Johnson
@DaleJohnsonESPN
·
32m
Analysis of how margin of error could have affected all 16 VAR offside decisions in the Prem.

- 5 of 14 disallowed count
- Of the 5, 3 are Liverpool
- Three could have changed result (2 Liverpool)
- Only goal allowed would be ruled out on "Umpire's Call"

A thread.

Margin of error allowance in VAR is when the two lines are touching, the decision stands as an on field decision
There are, I believe, 3 countries doing this, one being Holland.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #28 on: December 7, 2020, 10:59:08 am »
Match 11 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #29 on: December 7, 2020, 11:00:26 am »
Chelsea have had an easier schedule, and not done well in the more difficult fixtures.

Offline campioni

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #30 on: December 7, 2020, 12:15:08 pm »
Chelsea have had an easier schedule, and not done well in the more difficult fixtures.

Same as United, 1 point from 9 against top 7 opposition and all of them at Old Trafford. Doesn't bode well for the Manchester derby this weekend, I was hoping they'd take something off City but not getting my hopes up.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #31 on: December 14, 2020, 10:14:54 am »
Match 12 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #32 on: December 14, 2020, 10:18:50 am »
The rest:  Like Chelsea, Leicester have played less against the top teams, and not done well either

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #33 on: December 15, 2020, 10:19:41 pm »
Wowzers  ;D

Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #34 on: December 15, 2020, 11:00:21 pm »
So City drop to 74 on equivalent and Chelsea to 71. Utd may have moved up to 2nd on time?
Nobody is looking like they are closing the 15 point gap to us even though we've dropped off our high levels.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #35 on: December 17, 2020, 10:44:10 pm »
Match 13 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #36 on: December 17, 2020, 10:48:48 pm »
The rest: added the 2015-6 season when Leicester won as a comparison point

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #37 on: December 21, 2020, 10:36:11 pm »
Match 14 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #38 on: December 21, 2020, 10:36:53 pm »
The rest:

Offline DangerScouse

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2020-21
« Reply #39 on: December 21, 2020, 11:10:51 pm »
Nice one JP. Very interesting. Very tough ask for any team to hit 90. Anyone that does is destined to win the league. We'll fall short but still win it. ;)