Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2020-21

[farawayred]

Genuinely didn't know why. Thanks.

Didn't want to sound condescending, sorry if it came that way... It just seemed unreal...

[Brian Blessed]

That's interesting. The initial results from resumption of the bundesliga showed that the usual advantage was turned on its head. Anyone have any idea of how that played out here for the end of last season?

On a separate note: prof I need the graph. Screw city and utd, I've got the jitters!

I dunno about the BL, but in the Prem, thie first weekend had 6 away wins, two home wins. This weekend (so far) has had 5 homes, 4 aways. No draws at all so far.

[Prof]

[farawayred]

Oh, City already on par with a game to spare... We are doomed!

[KurtVerbose]

Oh, City already on par with a game to spare... We are doomed!

I know you're joking, but the game they have in hand is a home game that they can only loose to par.

[Prof]

I know you're joking, but the game they have in hand is a home game that they can only loose to par.

They also aren't on par.  They're +2.   

[KurtVerbose]

They also aren't on par.  They're +2.   

Maybe he meant they're on par with us?

[farawayred]

Maybe he meant they're on par with us?

I did; poor choice of words on my part considering the content of this thread...

[Prof]

I did; poor choice of words on my part considering the content of this thread...

I knew really, I was just being a pedant 

[Gus 1855]

Wwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeee

[Ghost Town]

Wwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeee

Is that you Brendan?

[Brian Blessed]

Dunno where else to stick this.

After 26 games we have

21 penalties
8 home wins
16 away wins
2 draws
96 goals, nearly 3.7 per game

Without fans I could see home and away being about 50/50, but twice as many away wins is a bit odd.

[Gus 1855]

Dunno where else to stick this.

After 26 games we have

21 penalties
8 home wins
16 away wins
2 draws
96 goals, nearly 3.7 per game

Without fans I could see home and away being about 50/50, but twice as many away wins is a bit odd.

A degree of complacency perhaps, assuming you’ll have a benefit when you have none and vice versa?

[JC the Messiah]

Dunno where else to stick this.

After 26 games we have

21 penalties
8 home wins
16 away wins
2 draws
96 goals, nearly 3.7 per game

Without fans I could see home and away being about 50/50, but twice as many away wins is a bit odd.

It's only 4 results away from a 50/50 split.

[Brian Blessed]

A degree of complacency perhaps, assuming you’ll have a benefit when you have none and vice versa?

Aye, as good a reason as any.

It's only 4 results away from a 50/50 split.

8 results, without reply. But it is a small sample size to be sure.

[JC the Messiah]

Aye, as good a reason as any.

8 results, without reply. But it is a small sample size to be sure.

4 results - if four of the away wins were home wins, it would be 12 v 12.

[Brian Blessed]

4 results - if four of the away wins were home wins, it would be 12 v 12.

But they weren’t.

Wait, is that you, Frank?

[Gus 1855]

4 results - if four of the away wins were home wins, it would be 12 v 12.

That’s up there with the famous commentator line of ‘if that was a metre lower it would have been a goal’. 😂

[JC the Messiah]

Think people are misunderstanding the distribution of results and what is a statistical anomaly or not.

[Blinis]

The greatest of the "where are we really at" models I've seen out there, and modelling complex stuff is my daily job. Congrats Prof, I will follow you as always since the creation of the APLT!

[Prof]

[dudleyred]

First graph and a thing of beauty - well in prof

[JC the Messiah]

[emoji3590][emoji7][emoji3590][emoji7]

[johnny74]

I reckon Top 4 by Christmas is going to be us, Arsenal, Leicester and Everton. Everyone else looks inconsistent. Leicester look particularly strong.

I see Utd, Chelsea and Spurs doing a win one, lose one. I think Man City will catch up by the spring but too little too late.

[killer-heels]

I reckon Top 4 by Christmas is going to be us, Arsenal, Leicester and Everton. Everyone else looks inconsistent. Leicester look particularly strong.

I see Utd, Chelsea and Spurs doing a win one, lose one. I think Man City will catch up by the spring but too little too late.

Nah. City and probably Man Utd will be top four by Christmas.

[KurtVerbose]

Yes, Utd, Chelsea and Spurs will have a tough time fighting off Leicester, Arsenal and Everton.

As for Man City, I don't know. We'll have to see what they look like after the transfer window closes and the new players bed in, although by then it may be too late. I still have the feeling they're a team in decline though. Most of their best players are either ageing or have left, and Pep looks like he doesn't have the motivation to rebuild. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part but it's hard to think otherwise whey they've just conceded 5 at home to Leicester. They look like a one in three team. Every third game they drop points, which is pretty much what they did last season.

[johnny74]

Nah. City and probably Man Utd will be top four by Christmas.

Reckon United will finish above Everton and  Leicester when they've got Maguire bumbling around in the back four? Not sure about City but I really do think they look like an unfinished project at the moment.

[Ghost Town]

Of course we know this years's APL graph is fake as it doesn't contain the Champions-elect

[Dr Stu-Pid]

As some of you will remember I updated this thread last year with a breakdown of our points totals over various number of games and how they compared with the previous PL records (spoiler alert: we beat them all).  This season I thought I would do something similar in chart form and showing the relative form for all of the other top teams.

So the stacked column chart below shows each teams points total over their last 38 games, with the subsections being 5 game intervals.  So the bottom section is the points gained over the last 5 games, the section above that games 6- 10, etc etc, up to the top section which is a only 3 game total (to get to 38 games).



So looking at the Liverpool bar we have 99 points from our last 38 games which is made up of: 

15 points from our last 5 games
7 points from games 6- 10
10 points from games 11- 15
15 points from games 16- 20
15 points from games 21- 25
15 points from games 26- 30
13 points from games 31- 35
9 points from games 36- 38

In terms of average performance needed, the average per 5 games to get to various points thresholds is as below:

8 points per 5 games = 60 points
9 points per 5 games = 68 points
10 points per 5 games = 76 points
11 points per 5 games = 83 points
12 points per 5 games = 91 points
13 points per 5 games = 98 points

[suede lady]

Nice take Dr Stu. It is interesting to see that both Chelsea and Leicester are really patchy -15 points in one set of games and then 5 and 6 the next. Whereas Arsenal and Tottenham never really hit the heights, but still have the lows.

Of course,, this must change for every new game? IE once a new game is played what was a 5 segment and a 12 segment might become a 8 and 9?

It really shows have we managed several perfect 15's, while the drop off even to City is huge.

[Ghost Town]

Brilliant as ever Doc. Your analytical posts, and the work you put into them, have been a great addition to the forum.

Interesting to see that City did not manage a single 15pt run over the last season or so, whereas we were bedecked with them.

A minor point on the colour-coding: while I can understand coding for time, it might also be useful to colour-code for performance so we can get an instant idea of the ebb and flow of the season, side by side with that of the other teams.

And again, while a 38pt rolling range is useful, I think the same analysis over a set period - say the last few seasons, would also be very useful and interesting, to get an idea of how each team has improved/regressed, and to also be able to spot if there are any patterns as to part of the season/time of year a team does better/has a rough patch etc. I appreciate that involves more work.

One of the things I love about analysis is that every analytical sweep immediately suggests a number of further analyses that can be done, sometimes uncovering information you never even thought of looking for previously.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

And again, while a 38pt rolling range is useful, I think the same analysis over a set period - say the last few seasons, would also be very useful and interesting, to get an idea of how each team has improved/regressed, and to also be able to spot if there are any patterns as to part of the season/time of year a team does better/has a rough patch etc. I appreciate that involves more work.

Something like this?



This is the rolling 38 game form for each of the 'Big 6' over the last 10 seasons, along with dots on the bottom to denote when they changed managers.  This uses a 3 game average of 38 point form to smooth out the lines.

The graph isn't the easiest to read with so much data on it, so I also have them for each individual team if people are particularly interested.  You can also click on the graph to open it as a bigger size externally.

[JC the Messiah]

Something like this?



This is the rolling 38 game form for each of the 'Big 6' over the last 10 seasons, along with dots on the bottom to denote when they changed managers.  This uses a 3 game average of 38 point form to smooth out the lines.

The graph isn't the easiest to read with so much data on it, so I also have them for each individual team if people are particularly interested.  You can also click on the graph to open it as a bigger size externally.

Excellent work. Klopp is a mountaineer, and he's climbed Everest.

[newterp]

Something like this?



This is the rolling 38 game form for each of the 'Big 6' over the last 10 seasons, along with dots on the bottom to denote when they changed managers.  This uses a 3 game average of 38 point form to smooth out the lines.

The graph isn't the easiest to read with so much data on it, so I also have them for each individual team if people are particularly interested.  You can also click on the graph to open it as a bigger size externally.

1. Nice work!

2. It's pretty easy to read: "Of late, we're boss!"

[Stevie T]

This chart deserves to become as iconic as the cover of Unknown Pleasures!

[BoRed]

Man Utd since Ole took over

And the best thing is they're happy with him.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

Just to give some additional historical context for the period prior to 2010/11:

 - Chelsea set the previous PL 38 game record with 102 points in 2005/06.  They also managed 93 in 2008/09
 - Man Utd's best was 97 points in 2003/04.  They also managed 96 in 2000/01, 92 in 2006/07, and 94 in 2009/10.
 - Arsenal's best was 93 points in 2002/03.  They also managed 92 in 2004/05
 - Liverpool's best under Rafa was 86 points in 2008/09

And to add some numbers to the peaks on the graph:

 - Chelsea peaked at 96 under Conte and 90 in Mourinho's second spell
 - Ferguson's Utd peaked at 93 in his final season
 - Man City equalled Chelsea's 102 in 2017/18 and also hit 90 under Pellegrini
 - Spurs never managed to get above 88 points under Pochettino
 - We reached 110 points last season

So basically:

90+ = Great team
95+ = Elite team
100+ = All time team
105+ = Klopp teams only

[Paul1611]

Excellent work. Klopp is a mountaineer, and he's climbed Everest.

Whereas Roy took us to the bottom of the Marianas Trench....

[Prof]

Something like this?



This is the rolling 38 game form for each of the 'Big 6' over the last 10 seasons, along with dots on the bottom to denote when they changed managers.  This uses a 3 game average of 38 point form to smooth out the lines.

The graph isn't the easiest to read with so much data on it, so I also have them for each individual team if people are particularly interested.  You can also click on the graph to open it as a bigger size externally.

I love this 

[Heritage]

I reckon Top 4 by Christmas is going to be us, Arsenal, Leicester and Everton. Everyone else looks inconsistent. Leicester look particularly strong.

I see Utd, Chelsea and Spurs doing a win one, lose one. I think Man City will catch up by the spring but too little too late.

Never overlook that City team.