Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2020-21

[Prof]

The Alternative Premier League Table 2020-21

This is a continuation of the last nine APLT threads which ran over the last nine seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0
2015-16http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=322215
2016-17https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329366.0
2017-18https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191
2018-19
https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=340730
2019-20https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=343471

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the featured teams indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.



Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below).  If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.





The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish.  Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf



This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....

[DangerScouse]

Great stuff Prof, big fan of your work.

[Thush]

Now the season starts.

[Boaty McBoatface]

[BoRed]

Those three par 1s in a row caught my attention, would be surprised to have three away games in a row. Just had a quick look at the fixtures, Leicester away is scheduled for February, between the City and Everton games: https://www.liverpoolfc.com/match/2020-21/first-team/fixtures-and-results

[Prof]

Those three par 1s in a row caught my attention, would be surprised to have three away games in a row. Just had a quick look at the fixtures, Leicester away is scheduled for February, between the City and Everton games: https://www.liverpoolfc.com/match/2020-21/first-team/fixtures-and-results

Thanks for the heads up

I'll check the spreadsheet tomorrow.  Sometimes I have formula glitches where I've moved fixtures around the previous season.

[Prof]

[karrmadamaii]

Bless you, Prof.

[SP]

I'll kick off the annual should we change it discussion.

Should the target line be 100 points? It is our new normal and on recent records that would be how many points are required. 

30 wins, 8 draws - 98pts
31 wins, 7 draws - 100pts

Us, Man City & Utd, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Wolves, Arsenal as 1pt par away games for 100pts. Add Sheff Utd for 98pts.

Burnley, Southampton, Newcastle and Everton away feels like games top 4 should win.

[Willy Poolman]

Wonderful to see this thread reopened. Really makes the start of the new season a reality for me now. Thanks for all your hard work, Prof, as this thread is one of the highlights of the site as far as I am concerned. I have learned to take a different perspective on teams' progress as a result of following the updates after each game. The extra contributions of other correspondents add further value, I should acknowledge. Okay, let's get on with this first game!

[farawayred]

Placing a thread-holder on here. Thanks for doing that, Prof! Looking forward to another exciting season with the contribution from the regular suspects.

Having said that though, Leeds are in with a decent chance to cause a major upset with their unknown quality. They are two places above us in the league table anyway.

[Prof]

I'll kick off the annual should we change it discussion.

Should the target line be 100 points? It is our new normal and on recent records that would be how many points are required. 

30 wins, 8 draws - 98pts
31 wins, 7 draws - 100pts

Us, Man City & Utd, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Wolves, Arsenal as 1pt par away games for 100pts. Add Sheff Utd for 98pts.

Burnley, Southampton, Newcastle and Everton away feels like games top 4 should win.

The counter argument is that although we won the league with 99 points, we only needed 82.  Only once has a team got 90 or more points and not won the league.

I think there's a lot more strength in depth going into this season in the league, so more tricky fixtures.  Those four you've mentioned look like though fixtures on paper to me.

What will be interesting is the impact of empty stadia.  Home advantage has always been huge in football because of the impact of crowds on player motivation and the influence it can have on refereeing decisions (I don't just mean the big calls like penalties etc, the small fouls being called or not has a big impact over a high volume of events and matches).  Will we see the big teams dropping more points at home this season?  Or will it have more impact on the results away from home where the less big teams have benefitted from their crowds to make the difference?

Let's watch this space for now and look at other models periodically to see how they look in comparison.

[s_andrews89]

I'll kick off the annual should we change it discussion.

Should the target line be 100 points? It is our new normal and on recent records that would be how many points are required. 

30 wins, 8 draws - 98pts
31 wins, 7 draws - 100pts

Us, Man City & Utd, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Wolves, Arsenal as 1pt par away games for 100pts. Add Sheff Utd for 98pts.

Burnley, Southampton, Newcastle and Everton away feels like games top 4 should win.

Not for me. The table is about 90 points wins you the league. And we'd have won the league easily with 90 points last season. Only once has 90 points not won the league. If we get 90 points and come second this season, the team that beat us will have done exceptionally.

[Suareznumber7]

In for the best thread on the site. 

[McrRed]

Ahh. The season starts here.

[kcbworth]

Beautiful graph in the OP there

[TAA66]

One of my favourite threads - thanks for putting the work in for another year prof 

[farawayred]

The counter argument is that although we won the league with 99 points, we only needed 82.  Only once has a team got 90 or more points and not won the league.

That really happened?!

Oh, wait...

[aggerdid]

I’ve been on this forum for 12 years and still have no idea how to post images or anything besides text. Summary:
Highest points gain in prem history was chelsea 2016-17. Went from 50 to 93.
Highest points loss in prem history was chelsea 2015-16 going from 87 to 50 and leicester 16-17 dropping 37 what whatever they won it on.

[SP]

So even if we drop a record number of points, we’ll still get double digit more Points than Everton this season.

[Ghost Town]

Only once has 90 points not won the league.

Hur hur poor mugs, they must have been - oh, wait

[farawayred]

Prof, you may want to add Everton to the fold. They seem to be leading the APLT early on.

Now off to wash my mouth with Listerine.

[Brian Blessed]

I'll kick off the annual should we change it discussion.

Should the target line be 100 points? It is our new normal and on recent records that would be how many points are required. 

30 wins, 8 draws - 98pts
31 wins, 7 draws - 100pts

Us, Man City & Utd, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Wolves, Arsenal as 1pt par away games for 100pts. Add Sheff Utd for 98pts.

Burnley, Southampton, Newcastle and Everton away feels like games top 4 should win.

98 or 100 is too much for me, I don’t think we can say it’s our new normal. Man City also put up those numbers and then Dropped off significantly, so it remains to be seen if pulling it off three seasons in a row can happen.

If the new normal were to be increased (I’m not convinced it should be) I’d suggest changing the two lowest par ones to par threes and making it a 94 point line seems adequate.

[wige]

Don't see the need to change it. Always interpreted that 90 points line as "you're in title challenge form" and that hasn't changed.

For my money whoever get's 90+ this season will win it - think the points will be much reduced from last 3/4 years - lack of fans, intensity of fixtures, strengthening of Chelsea/Utd/Arsenal.

[Prof]

Don't see the need to change it. Always interpreted that 90 points line as "you're in title challenge form" and that hasn't changed.

For my money whoever get's 90+ this season will win it - think the points will be much reduced from last 3/4 years - lack of fans, intensity of fixtures, strengthening of Chelsea/Utd/Arsenal.

Is the right answer... So... Moving on...

 

[Prof]

Prof, you may want to add Everton to the fold.

Erm... Nope

[Hash91]

Thanks for this Prof and all the other contributors!

With the initial part of the season being played without fans in the stadium, does that sort of negate the whole home / away advantage and thus affect the Par 3s and Par 1s?

[Ghost Town]

Thanks for this Prof and all the other contributors!

With the initial part of the season being played without fans in the stadium, does that sort of negate the whole home / away advantage and thus affect the Par 3s and Par 1s?

A good question. There's certainly an analysis to be done as to whether BCD is having an effect on the traditional home/away dynamics. May need more data before it can be satisfactorily done, though.

[Mr Benn please?]

Hi. I just wanted to say thanks to the people who clearly put loads of effort into producing the APL every year. It's a great thread and the tables are really easy to follow, even for data numpties like me.

[Hymer Red]

Great to see this back again your efforts are much appreciated prof!! YNWA

Minor point - Check out the Spurs list I think you have a Manc H instead of an Ev A marked

[Prof]

Great to see this back again your efforts are much appreciated prof!! YNWA

Minor point - Check out the Spurs list I think you have a Manc H instead of an Ev A marked

Nice one. Good spot.  I'll try and fix it and update at the weekend.

[McrRed]

Thanks for this Prof and all the other contributors!

With the initial part of the season being played without fans in the stadium, does that sort of negate the whole home / away advantage and thus affect the Par 3s and Par 1s?

That's interesting. The initial results from resumption of the bundesliga showed that the usual advantage was turned on its head. Anyone have any idea of how that played out here for the end of last season?

On a separate note: prof I need the graph. Screw city and utd, I've got the jitters!

[Austin Powers]

Yes! Always a top thread

[Hij]

Here we go!

Good man Prof.

[Hij]

Surprised no post.

Up we go already

[farawayred]

Erm... Nope

Are you sure?....

[johnny74]

Disappointed to see that Man City haven't bothered playing any games of football so far. All very odd.

What was the reason for them not playing until now?

[farawayred]

Disappointed to see that Man City haven't bothered playing any games of football so far. All very odd.

What was the reason for them not playing until now?

Is that serious? OK, I'll bite...

Not played the first round because of their CL participation (same as United). They play tomorrow in this round.

[Prof]

Trying again 



I'll post the APLT after tomorrow's games.  Wasn't much point after last weekend as not everyone played.

[johnny74]

Is that serious? OK, I'll bite...

Not played the first round because of their CL participation (same as United). They play tomorrow in this round.

Genuinely didn't know why. Thanks.