Topic: Betting Strategies

[aggerdid]

Does anyone follow any particular strategy? I start off with a low stake like 10/20 double it take my stake out then. Then from there i usually try and hit 50/100. Then do the same thing with 25/50 till I hit 300. If i fall along the way which I do most of the time I just go again. Everytime I hit £300 i bank it all and start all over again and thats holiday funds for the summer. Any trebles I win I keep seperate and bank recently.

Was just talking in work today and nobody had a strategy or target. Other people I've spoke to like to do loads of bets and make small gains but in my experience I end up betting too much and fuck it all up.

I think peoples issue with betting is they wanna wake up on a saturday pick 7 teams and win a few hundred. Whats the rush?

[aggerdid]

I should note I love betting but i'm incredibly risk averse when its my own money. I see it as a game and as long as I don't lose my own money its fine to keep playing

[Clayton Bigsby]

Of recent I stick to what I know, which is GG. I might throw ina small AGS bet but big stakes £50 and above are exclusively GG

I would go on b365 and look at all the GGs that are evens and above for the day and then go to futbol24.com and check the form of last 6 games. I want at least half of the teams last 6 games to have been GG, on rare occasion I will accept 2/6 being GG but certainly not 1 or 0.

I never just bet on a game because its odds against. I think it's a fair system

Best league for this is undoubtedly Europa League especially when the Eastern European team with good home form is at home to a 'better' side. Haven't missed a single one of those bets this season that I've put on, it's the otehr stuff that has fcuked me over.

[Phil M]

Not telling.

[LanceLink!!!!!]

I'm haphazzard, no strategy.

I might as well send a monthly cheque to Betfair or Coral to alleviate the hope and heartache.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

Great topic to start as it's an issue that's not discussed anywhere near enough between people who like a bet. The basics for me are:

Have a bank and have a points system around your bank - none of my bets are bigger than 5% of my betting bank, if I go up to 5% then I'm seriously confident of my bet.

Have a spreadsheet of all your bets which shows your profit/loss - Best thing I ever did.

Have a specialist area that you bet on - for me it's Class 2 or above chases and handicaps on the All Weather between 5f-1m. Immerse yourself in the areas, knowledge is king.

Price up anything you wish to bet on yourself without looking at bookmakers prices or forecasted prices - only way to determine whether your selection holds value.

Finally, if the price is wrong DON'T PLACE THE BET. Biggest error punters make is trying to find the winner of the race. Anyone can find winners, finding value is the difficult part. If you're backing 2/1 winners relatively consistently but they should have been an average of 4/1 you won't make a profit long term. Beating SP is a must so finding your own edge is imperative.

Above all else discipline is key. Stick to your beliefs even during a losing run and you won't go far wrong.

As you say though these days the trend is picking a big accumulator and dreaming of winning big. I'm happy backing in a 0-60 handicap at Dundalk on a Friday night knowing I'll win long term 

[aggerdid]

Great topic to start as it's an issue that's not discussed anywhere near enough between people who like a bet. The basics for me are:

Have a bank and have a points system around your bank - none of my bets are bigger than 5% of my betting bank, if I go up to 5% then I'm seriously confident of my bet.

Have a spreadsheet of all your bets which shows your profit/loss - Best thing I ever did.

Have a specialist area that you bet on - for me it's Class 2 or above chases and handicaps on the All Weather between 5f-1m. Immerse yourself in the areas, knowledge is king.

Price up anything you wish to bet on yourself without looking at bookmakers prices or forecasted prices - only way to determine whether your selection holds value.

Finally, if the price is wrong DON'T PLACE THE BET. Biggest error punters make is trying to find the winner of the race. Anyone can find winners, finding value is the difficult part. If you're backing 2/1 winners relatively consistently but they should have been an average of 4/1 you won't make a profit long term. Beating SP is a must so finding your own edge is imperative.

Above all else discipline is key. Stick to your beliefs even during a losing run and you won't go far wrong.

As you say though these days the trend is picking a big accumulator and dreaming of winning big. I'm happy backing in a 0-60 handicap at Dundalk on a Friday night knowing I'll win long term 

i follow this bloke on twitter @spinitg hes irish but lives in the US. Hes convinced fridays at dundalk are the money makers. Foley/halford partnership.

[Fiasco]

Out of interest, what would anyone say their longest losing streak has been? I don't mean 8 losses and 2 wins out of the past 10 bets, I'm talking consecutive losses from bet to bet.

[keano7]

Of recent I stick to what I know, which is GG. I might throw ina small AGS bet but big stakes £50 and above are exclusively GG

I would go on b365 and look at all the GGs that are evens and above for the day and then go to futbol24.com and check the form of last 6 games. I want at least half of the teams last 6 games to have been GG, on rare occasion I will accept 2/6 being GG but certainly not 1 or 0.

I never just bet on a game because its odds against. I think it's a fair system

Best league for this is undoubtedly Europa League especially when the Eastern European team with good home form is at home to a 'better' side. Haven't missed a single one of those bets this season that I've put on, it's the otehr stuff that has fcuked me over.

Very similar to mine. I usually do a quick research of the Championship, L1 and L2 sides previous results and see how many goals they've scored / conceded. GG is a complete guessing game but it keeps you interested for the whole 90 mins.

As much as I think I have a very good knowledge of football, I wouldn't place high stake bets on it. I do small stakes over the weekend for interest and probably over the season I win more than I lose.

[liversaint]

Great topic to start as it's an issue that's not discussed anywhere near enough between people who like a bet. The basics for me are:

Have a bank and have a points system around your bank - none of my bets are bigger than 5% of my betting bank, if I go up to 5% then I'm seriously confident of my bet.

Have a spreadsheet of all your bets which shows your profit/loss - Best thing I ever did.

Have a specialist area that you bet on - for me it's Class 2 or above chases and handicaps on the All Weather between 5f-1m. Immerse yourself in the areas, knowledge is king.

Price up anything you wish to bet on yourself without looking at bookmakers prices or forecasted prices - only way to determine whether your selection holds value.

Finally, if the price is wrong DON'T PLACE THE BET. Biggest error punters make is trying to find the winner of the race. Anyone can find winners, finding value is the difficult part. If you're backing 2/1 winners relatively consistently but they should have been an average of 4/1 you won't make a profit long term. Beating SP is a must so finding your own edge is imperative.

Above all else discipline is key. Stick to your beliefs even during a losing run and you won't go far wrong.

As you say though these days the trend is picking a big accumulator and dreaming of winning big. I'm happy backing in a 0-60 handicap at Dundalk on a Friday night knowing I'll win long term 

I agree with a lot of this especially on the AW, and also look at various trainers at various times of the year e.g Sir Mark Prescott for his handicappers up in trip or Hannon 2 -Y- O and look at ones who you know won't be trying until the time is right. Another good way is to look at trainers who do well at local tracks( mcCain at Bangor for example) I wouldn't recommend doing  much online, as long term you will b restricted to pennies if you win, consistently beat SP or regularly pick horses that shorten in the market, even if you don't win as it shows you have a clue.

Don't be fooled by opening offers with bookies, best to lose with them for the above reasons.

Discipline is a key and not having loads of bets or bookies bets like Lucky 31s or 63s.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

i follow this bloke on twitter @spinitg hes irish but lives in the US. Hes convinced fridays at dundalk are the money makers. Foley/halford partnership.

Dundalk is comfortably my most profitable track and I know why. Only AW track in Ireland, all the form is there to see and I absolutely love it. Add to that most bookies are probably more worried about correctly pricing the big Saturday meetings correctly and you're more likely to find incorrect prices a lot more often.

[aggerdid]

Tennis is the best sport to bet on for me. Particularly when the player you think is going to win is down a set. This is because somebody has to win the point. Unlike football where another goal is not guaranteed if arsenal go 0-1 down for example. In tennis lets say wawrinka goes a set down to a lesser player that leaser player still has a lot of points to win to win the match. Tennis is unique in that sense. I'd rather take a tennis player at evens 0-1 down than west ham at evens to beat stoke at home for example in a W-D-W market. Same price but a hell of a lot less variables for us as bettors to worry about.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

Out of interest, what would anyone say their longest losing streak has been? I don't mean 8 losses and 2 wins out of the past 10 bets, I'm talking consecutive losses from bet to bet.

23 for me this year. My best day was ladies day at Aintree though where I backed two 25/1 winners on the same day which makes up for the losing runs! I often go 8/10 without winning, you kind of get used to losing.

[Fiasco]

23 for me this year. My best day was ladies day at Aintree though where I backed two 25/1 winners on the same day which makes up for the losing runs! I often go 8/10 without winning, you kind of get used to losing.

You do get used to losing, that's true. I'm a cynical fucker and think everything is fixed, you get like that when you lose


At times I haven't been able to win an argument with myself my luck has been that bad. I've knocked it on the head pretty much. If I bought a funeral home people would stop dying.

[aggerdid]

One basic tip is to have accounts with every bookies so you can assess their offers. William hill are by far the bravest with their offers. In recent weeks giving me murray 2-0 vs nish, murray 2-1 vs raonic, mcgregor to beat alvarez, england to beat scotland. Come to think of it i very rarely bet with william hill apart from these offers and seem to have had good fortune with them. Murray 2-1 for example i logged in on the off chance william hill would be taking 2-1 on and they were. They do throw in clangers with a lot of variables such as "banker trebles" or coutinho to score and liverpool to win at 21/20 (even though it should be about 5/2 or 3/1 if you ask me) these bets are silly and devised by experts so we lose our money. Skybet offer the free bet club where you get a free fiver for every 25 staked and william hill have followed suit this season.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

You do get used to losing, that's true. I'm a cynical fucker and think everything is fixed, you get like that when you lose


At times I haven't been able to win an argument with myself my luck has been that bad. I've knocked it on the head pretty much. If I bought a funeral home people would stop dying.

Not so much a strategy side of it but a psychological side of betting, I never claim it's fixed, blame a jockey or moan when one loses. I immediately look at the winner and see if there's something I missed. if not I remember horses are animals and maybe just didn't run to form. I am a boring bastard now though, I've sat next to my mrs when winning £600 on a horse and she didn't realise I even had a bet on the race. Whether they win or lose I've trained myself to remove the emotion from it and look purely analytically. Cheltenham I allow myself to get carried away as most of my bets have been decided well in advance and I know all the form inside out.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

One basic tip is to have accounts with every bookies so you can assess their offers. William hill are by far the bravest with their offers. In recent weeks giving me murray 2-0 vs nish, murray 2-1 vs raonic, mcgregor to beat alvarez, england to beat scotland. Come to think of it i very rarely bet with william hill apart from these offers and seem to have had good fortune with them. Murray 2-1 for example i logged in on the off chance william hill would be taking 2-1 on and they were. They do throw in clangers with a lot of variables such as "banker trebles" or coutinho to score and liverpool to win at 21/20 (even though it should be about 5/2 or 3/1 if you ask me) these bets are silly and devised by experts so we lose our money. Skybet offer the free bet club where you get a free fiver for every 25 staked and william hill have followed suit this season.

No offence mate but if bookies are allowing you to actually use these offers you aren't causing them any issues 

I can barely get 50p on a horse online never mind take up one of their offers.

[CHOPPER]

I study the form of horses, football teams, cricket teams, darts players, greyhounds, the lot, and once I've made my choice, I inform everyone of whom I have my money on, and they all bet on the rest as am shit at betting. It works for them.

[aggerdid]

No offence mate but if bookies are allowing you to actually use these offers you aren't causing them any issues 

I can barely get 50p on a horse online never mind take up one of their offers.

a bookies hardly going to be scared of me putting 10/20 on their max £20 offer are they.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

a bookies hardly going to be scared of me putting 10/20 on their max £20 offer are they.

It depends. If you backed them all plus backed selections that shortened after you put them on you'd look a typical arber.

[Fiasco]

No offence mate but if bookies are allowing you to actually use these offers you aren't causing them any issues 

I can barely get 50p on a horse online never mind take up one of their offers.

Where do you see the industry going mate with the restrictions? It's stupid really. The FOBT's in the shops prop up the bookies big time. It can only go on so long though. I knew a fella who signed up to a major bookie and before he placed a single bet he was restricted to what he could put on. Work that one out!

They won't restrict you from the casinos and the games and the virtual stuff, even if you win.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

Where do you see the industry going mate with the restrictions? It's stupid really. The FOBT's in the shops prop up the bookies big time. It can only go on so long though. I knew a fella who signed up to a major bookie and before he placed a single bet he was restricted to what he could put on. Work that one out!

They won't restrict you from the casinos and the games and the virtual stuff, even if you win.

I can only see the industry suffering, reason being the vast majority of punters lose. So many times they must restrict losing punters early on as they're wary of their business. In Australia bookies have to lay to lose a punter 2000 dollars (i think might have that figure wrong) since this rule was brought in bookies are more profitable.

I use shops more and more now because I'm restricted online and I've found the shops in Liverpool where the staff are clueless and don't notice any betting patterns. They're depressing places now. FOBTs are a disgrace, the clue is in the name. Also despair when I see fellas shouting a virtual horse on. Issue is punters have become so lazy now and want the win big quickly without thinking about it accumulators to come in. Coral have started taking proper bets after 11am, surely it's helping their bottom line as they haven't stopped doing it so I don't understand why others haven't followed suit.

Other issue is there's no proper skilled traders working for bookies anymore. Surely firms would be better to take a view and try and make their profits that way. Now they just lazily follow the exchanges and restrict everyone as they're so against risk. Must be losing out on lots of money in my opinion.

EDIT: Also regarding your mate, not widely known but when you use a bookies site on your PC they install software that tracks what other bookies you use and if you visit sites like oddschecker. You can be flagged straight away to them.

[RobbieRedman]

No real strategy for me.
Two online accounts now, less is better imo, if the price/value is not there then no bet.
Restrictions in place so I can't go over monthly or daily allowance, which has worked well since put in place.
Simliar to aggerdid, prefer to start £10/£20 mark and work my way up.
I still go pretty much every lunch to shop, few quid here and there but nothing drastic, guess that builds up though. Would be nice to knock it all on the head one day, dirty game

[james791]

I treat gambling nowadays as purely something to maintain a bit of interest rather than a money making scheme. I know my massive 300/1 accas are unlikely to ever come in, but it keeps me entertained for a couple of hours on a Saturday afternoon. I could easily blow £40+ in the pub over the same time, so for £2 or £3 its quite a cost effective way for me to spend the afternoon.

Generally stick to BTTS and over 2.5, the odd 1.5 acca thrown in too. Avoid Prem-too difficult to call games now. League one consistently great at the mo for goals, league 2 and Championship a bit hit and miss but on a good day when the planets align, those three leagues can be great for goals all round.

One interesting thing i've been doing recently is writing out all the fixtures and researching the teams, and then putting a mark against them if i think they might be BTTS or over 2.5. If there's a tick against both, it goes on my 1.5 acca. Been agonisingly close to winning on this the the last few weeks now.

Generally avoid a few of my bogey teams regardless of who theyre playing and form- Bolton, York, Accrington etc.

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

Completely get the fun side of it on a Saturday afternoon and if controlled with the amount you spend it's a great form of entertainment. I just hate seeing people on FOBTs and betting on virtual racing etc instead of having a proper strategy.

[james791]

Never understood the appeal on the virtual horses, racing, footy! i get that it's there to service a need, but to me thats skirting dangerously close to being unethical.

FOBTS are the devils work. Far too easy to shove notes in there, and the amount you see being wasted is eye watering. putting your loose change in-fine, but if they were serious about reducing the amount put in them they would remove the notes facility.

[jordyball10]

I am doing really well keeping to a pts system as someone else has said above.

The bets i tend to stick to are race to corner bets on bet365 as the prices are usually huge, i wait for the game to kick off and when a goal goes in i back the opposite team to get 7 or 9 corners first. Very good value and have been doing very well recently.

Corner bets and teams to score are the ones to stick to and you will never see a bookie rarely advertise corners.

[RobbieRedman]

have you seen the money that goes into these crack machines? unbelievable amounts, when these fuckers win they give it large too like they had some say in the matter, and yet when they lose they get mad like the machine cheated them haha

[youll never walk alone it]

I bet very small stakes because its only to supplement matched betting (its  all but dead for me)  but i will pick 3 teams to win an both teams to score,  often these teams are highly likely to win its just a case of the opponents scoring, often get odds of around 3/1 on each team to do this so an average treble will be 25/1 ish, you need a bit of  luck of course,  i cover all the big leagues not just uk.

[Salger]

I bet very small stakes because its only to supplement matched betting (its  all but dead for me)  but i will pick 3 teams to win an both teams to score,  often these teams are highly likely to win its just a case of the opponents scoring, often get odds of around 3/1 on each team to do this so an average treble will be 25/1 ish, you need a bit of  luck of course,  i cover all the big leagues not just uk.

How often does that come in?

[Jake]

Simple strategy I've got guarantees you returns.

No Hattricks in a game - big stake.

[Phil M]

I sometimes dutch an accumulator for fun this way...


2 x usually heavy favourites in football (think Madrid home and maybe Bayern away in League games v teams they usually beat)

A very strong side away from home is usually a few points higher than at home for obvious reasons.

Add in a game where the away side looks decent enough to nick a draw but the odds are heavily in favour of the home side.

So this is a dutch 3-team accy:

PL example for next weekend

1. Spurs/Arsenal/Stoke @ 3.65    -  £20 pays £10 £57.20
2. Spurs/Arsenal/Draw @ 8.8   -    £10 pays £78.90
3. Spurs/Arsenal/Burnley @ 12.87 -   £10 pays £118.70

So obviously assuming the hot favourites do the business... the above means that as long as the 2 expected favourites win then depending on the outcome of Stoke v Burnley you stand to win £17.20 / £38.90 or £78.70 in profit.

Of course you can play around with the stakes, so you break even on bet 1, win most on bet and win a little more on bet 3 and reduce/increase your staking accordingly.

Place at a bookie which offers your stake back if one of your acca picks fails to win so at least there's some insurance.
Or if you decide to bet big cover by maybe placing a few scoreline bets in the odds on fave games for the lesser side to cover some of your staking.

I would also advise if you do the above to pick games which kick off at staggered times, so a 12.45pm, 3pm and 5.30 or. 7.30pm game as the last leg.
This gives you time to adjust if the first team looks like letting you down and you can always look to lay them in play etc.

Most of my work is spent trading on the exchanges, rather than gambling, which teaches you to assess and limit your risk/exposure.


**Only bet as much as you can afford to lose and never go chasing your losses - the quickest way to make a hold in your pockets deeper**

[LanceLink!!!!!]

Simple strategy I've got guarantees you returns.

No Hattricks in a game - big stake.

Ha ha, were you the guy who piled into a game years ago and it all went wrong?  Seem to remember your post was used as someone's footer quote

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

You can make around £50/60 per day matched betting in shops these days if you find staff disinterested enough. My local laddies I sit there on the exchanges and wait for their boosts, once my lay is matched walk up and back it and guarantee a fiver profit. Happens at least 8 times a day.

Edit: More arbing that matched betting to be fair actually.

[Barneylfc∗]

Ha ha, were you the guy who piled into a game years ago and it all went wrong?  Seem to remember your post was used as someone's footer quote

It wasn't Le Jake. It was Skittle. Odds of 1.03

[redk84]

Start with every intention of making £25 turn into £1000.

"low risk" bets that I try and roll over to higher and higher amounts. Not yet reached £1000 without getting bored and spunking it all on random doubles/trebles and having to start all over again 

[scouser4eva]

You can make around £50/60 per day matched betting in shops these days if you find staff disinterested enough. My local laddies I sit there on the exchanges and wait for their boosts, once my lay is matched walk up and back it and guarantee a fiver profit. Happens at least 8 times a day.

Edit: More arbing that matched betting to be fair actually.

Could you not make more with increased stakes or is there a max bet ?

Also do they do price boost's just for horse racing or other sports ?

[Barneylfc∗]

Start with every intention of making £25 turn into £1000.

"low risk" bets that I try and roll over to higher and higher amounts. Not yet reached £1000 without getting bored and spunking it all on random doubles/trebles and having to start all over again 

Patience is definitely required when trying to do that. Although going by my recent experience, too much patience can be costly 

[redk84]

Patience is definitely required when trying to do that. Although going by my recent experience, too much patience can be costly 

ha, no doubt!
can get stung on both ends I guess....the best way is probably in the middle?

Maybe ill try working up towards 300-400 mark, taking out a couple ton then going again. Would take longer but wouldn't be as painful...lets see how that goes with this current one im on

[ohweloveyerbaldyhead]

Could you not make more with increased stakes or is there a max bet ?

Also do they do price boost's just for horse racing or other sports ?

Max bet £25, don't know if they're just in store or also online. If was also online obviously could get £50 on.