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Roll up, Roll up, the Tory Seat Sweepstake is live. Place your bet!

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Riquende:
With apologies to any other election prediction threads ongoing, I'm becoming more morbidly fascinated with quite how low the Tory seat share could end up in 2024, to the exclusion of much else (I'm not sure how much more effectively Labour will govern with 450 MPs rather than 350 etc). The poll numbers have gradually edged away from the Tories all year, and now with the election underway in earnest, it doesn't look like any good news has turned up yet for Sunak - especially now the Conservative BÍte Noire has arrived  in the form of F'rage. It seems daily now that some new set of numbers is released that place Tory seat numbers at any old value - we've seen 180 and 140 recently, but less often than we see numbers like 90 or 70. Whispers abound of a wipeout finally, and what sort of number that would mean.

As we're a full 2 weeks in to the campaign, we've seen the first 'debate' already AND Nazi Nigel has invaded Walmington Clacton-on-Sea to upset the electoral applecart, I think it's as good a time as any to launch this particular sweepstake. Can't be too many surprises left, right? (editor's note - I wrote this 1 day before the D-Day gaff, which probably saw more than 40 seats wiped off the Tory total alone)

So it's up to you, dear RAWKites, to boldly place your name against a single number - how many seats you reckon that 'orrible lot end up with when the dust settles sometime on Friday. Please reply to the thread with your best guess, and if nobody else has that number locked in yet, then it's yours. Do you believe the crazy polls that suggest their worst ever defeat? Or will orthodoxy reign, the polls tighten and Sunak lead his party to a thorough defeat of around 210 seats? Should you get in early to secure your slot, or wait as long as possible for all the polling data, the twists and the turns? The choice is yours, but final.

The prize for being bang on (or I suppose the closest to) is the deputy leader position in the Jiminy Party next time it contests the RAWK Admin election. The hour is almost upon us, so I've condensed the entries so far, but further guesses welcome until 10pm tomorrow.

13 - Jiminy Cricket
42 - KurtVerbose
49 - Bobsackamano
54 - Red Beret
67 - Wabaloolah
69 - Commie Bobbie
72 - Wilmo
74 - 1892tillforever
77 - billyliddell01
79 - Anthony
84 - PeterJM
87 - Daniel Cabbaggio
91 - Libertine
99 - Elmo!
100 - sheepfest
102 - Millie
104 - Kenny's Jacket
110 - Redbonnie
112 - Schmarn
115 - FiSh77
118 - jonnypb
119 - Huyrob
120 - Dr. Beaker
121 - AndyMuller
123 - andy07
127 - exiledintheUSA
128 - CraigR2323
129 - blert596
130 - Yorkykopite
133 - vblfc
134 - Farman
136 - CheshireDave
137 - Mag Hull
139 - Lee1-6Liv
140 - Musketeer Gripweed
141 - Lisan Al Gaib
142 - damomad
143 - bryanod
147 - markedasred
148 - Robinred
150 - Statto Red
151 - Nobby Reserve
157 - Lee-87
159 - Anfield Kopite
160 - killer-heels
162 - Sabre Wolf
163 - Lusty
166 - JC the Messiah
171 - Qston
176 - Circa1892
180 - redtel
182 - Gili Gulu
184 - Butcher Knife Roberto
186 - TepidT20
195 - JP!
196 - Elzar
201 - thaddeus
220 - Only Me
270 - PaulF

Elmo!:
99

Bobsackamano:
49

TepidT2O:
Iíve got them at 186 in an online sweep I did two weeks ago.  Iím sticking with that

Millie:
102

(but i really hope its a lot less  ;D )

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